Provincial election in Ontario, Canada
2018 Ontario general election Opinion polls Turnout 56.67% (pp )[ 1] First party Second party Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009 Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre Last election 28 seats, 31.25% 21 seats, 23.75% Seats before 27 18 Seats won 76 40 Seat change Popular vote 2,326,632 1,929,649 Percentage 40.50% 33.59% Swing pp pp Third party Fourth party Leader Kathleen Wynne Mike Schreiner Party Liberal Green Leader since January 26, 2013 May 16, 2009 Leader's seat Don Valley West Guelph Last election 58 seats, 38.65% 0 seats, 4.84% Seats before 55 0 Seats won 7 1 Seat change Popular vote 1,124,218 264,487 Percentage 19.57% 4.60% Swing pp pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
The 2018 Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario .[ 2] Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario , led by Doug Ford , won 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature and formed a majority government. The Ontario New Democratic Party , led by Andrea Horwath , formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party , led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne , lost official party status in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in Ontario . The Green Party of Ontario won a seat for the first time in their history, while the Trillium Party of Ontario lost its single seat gained by a floor-crossing during the 41st Parliament .
Redistribution of seats [ edit ] The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 [ 3] 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.
The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[ 4] Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay , carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[ 5] [ 6] Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017 .[ 7]
The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms .[ 8]
In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.[ 9]
Change of fixed election date [ edit ] Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario 's power to call an election earlier.[ 10] majority , the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.[ 11]
To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election",[ 2] [ 12]
Prelude to campaign [ edit ] The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003 . The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999 , and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990 ). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.
The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford . The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions".[ 13] [ 14] [ 15] [ 16]
According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare , which the Liberal platform promised.[ 17]
In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025.[ 18] [ 19]
According to Toronto Star Susan Delacourt , voters were motivated by a desire for change—such desire being more driven by emotion than by ideology—and one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for.[ 20] Huffington Post [ 21]
In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:
Voter gap analysis by party (February 2018)[ 22] Liberal PC NDP Highlights PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%) At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all = Not voting for party; not considered = Not voting for party; shared consideration = Not voting for party; exclusive consideration = Will vote for party; others considered = Will vote for party; no others considered
[ edit ] Date June 12, 2014 The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election . Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor .[ 23] July 2, 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.[ 24] Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.[ 25] July 24, 2014 The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading. May 9, 2015 Patrick Brown , the Conservative federal MP for Barrie , is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[ 26] September 24, 2015 Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal.[ 27] November 1, 2016 Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.[ 28] [ 29] January 24, 2018 CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations.[ 30] January 25, 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[ 31] [ 32] January 26, 2018 Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader .[ 33] March 10, 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election .[ 34] [ 35] April 11, 2018 First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance.[ 36] April 16, 2018 The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.[ 37] May 7, 2018 First televised debate hosted by CityNews : Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne[ 38] May 9, 2018 Electoral Writ issued.[ 39] May 11, 2018 Leaders' debate in Parry Sound .[ 40] May 17, 2018 Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time.[ 41] May 26, 2018 Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices.[ 42] [ 43] May 27, 2018 Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser , held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC , CTV , Global , TVO , CPAC , CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath.[ 44] May 30, 2018 Advance voting ends at advance voting locations.[ 42] June 1, 2018 Advance voting ends at returning offices.[ 42] June 2, 2018 Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election.[ 45] [ 46] June 6, 2018 Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST.[ 42] June 7, 2018 Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.
Candidate contests in the ridings Candidates nominated Ridings Party PC NDP Lib Green Ltn NOTA Ind Tr Mod Free Comm Cons NO Oth [ a 1] Totals 4 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 5 19 19 19 19 19 15 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 95 6 43 43 43 43 43 43 5 5 8 6 2 3 1 6 7 258 7 33 33 33 33 33 32 21 7 11 5 6 2 4 2 9 231 8 15 15 15 15 15 15 9 8 3 1 3 6 5 1 9 120 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 9 3 4 3 1 0 0 15 90 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11 Total 124 124 124 124 124 117 42 32 25 16 14 12 10 10 49 823
^ Minor political parties fielding fewer than ten candidates are aggregated together.
2018 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms[ 47] [ 48] [ 49] [ 50] [ 51] [ 52] Issue Liberal PC NDP Budget Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024–25 Conduct a value-for-money audit of the government's spending Conduct an independent commission of inquiry into the previous government's spending Centralize government purchasing Increase the Risk Management Program limit by $50 million annually Eliminate the Jobs and Prosperity fund There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5 billion and $2 billion. Child care Publicly-funded child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income Fund a sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75% of their child-care costs Income-based scale for child care, providing publicly-funded child care for families earning under $40,000 annually and public funding to reduce the cost of childcare to an average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000 Education Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12 $3 billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions $16 billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools Cap kindergarten class sizes at 26 students Abolish standardized EQAO testing Give OSAP-qualified students non-repayable grants instead of loans Remove interest from existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principal Environment Hire more conservation officers Create an emissions-reduction fund to subsidize new technologies that reduce emissions Increase funding for cleaning up garbage Divert at least 25% of cap-and-trade revenue to help northern, rural and low-income Ontarians adapt to a lower-carbon lifestyle Spend $50 million on a home-efficiency retrofit program Healthcare Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028 Create a publicly-funded universal pharmacare program for seniors Hire 400 new mental health workers in schools Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028 Increase funding for mental health Increase funding for autism treatment by $125 million per year Create a publicly-funded universal pharmacare program for everyone that covers approximately 125 medications Create 40,000 new long-term care beds by 2028 Create 2,000 new hospital beds Hire 4,500 new nurses Electricity Standing by its 2017 plan to defer rate increases through current borrowing Will proceed to sell the Province's remaining 60% interest in Hydro One Cut rates by 12%, over and above the Liberals' current 25% reduction Fire the CEO and Board of Hydro One Cancel energy contracts that are in the pre-construction stage Regulation Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019 End geographic price variations in car insurance rates Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019 Allow illegal immigrants to access all government services and do not enforce federal immigration laws against them Impose price controls on gasoline Taxation Proceed with last budget's simplification of rate structure for personal income tax Raise taxes on cigarettes by $4 per carton Increase taxes on people making over $95,000 per year Reduce middle-class income tax rates by 20% Eliminate income tax entirely for minimum-wage earners Repeal the present cap and trade program Challenge the federal carbon tax in court Reduce the small business income tax rate by 8.7% Reduce gasoline taxes by 10¢ per litre Reduce diesel taxes by 10.3¢ per litre Reduce the corporate income tax rate from 11.5% to 10.5% Reduce aviation fuel taxes for Northern Ontario flights Exempt the Royal Canadian Legion from being charged property tax Raise corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 13% Raise income taxes on people earning over $220,000 by 1% Raise income taxes on people earning over $300,000 by 2% Transportation Fund $79 billion for various public-transit projects over 14 years Build a Toronto-to-Windsor high-speed rail line Fund an expansion of light rail O-Train in Ottawa $5 billion in extra funding for new subways in Toronto Upload ownership and construction of subway lines from the municipal government to the provincial government Build the Relief Line subway line Build the Yonge Extension subway line Build future crosstown expansions underground Expand all-day two-way GO service Bowmanville and Kitchener Finish construction of the Niagara GO Expansion Restore operations of the Northlander in Northern Ontario Fund an expansion of light rail O-Train in Ottawa Ensure that the Scarborough Subway Extension to the Scarborough Town Centre will have three stops Build the Sheppard Loop with the Scarborough Subway Extension
Endorsements received by each party Type Liberal PC NDP Green No endorsement Media Politicians and public figures Unions and business associations Ontario Convenience Stores Association[ 83] Ottawa Police Association[ 84] United Steelworkers Local 2251[ 85]
Candidate nominations [ edit ] In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings.[ 90] [ 91] Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas , where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation.[ 92]
In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa—Vanier . Evans was the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.[ 93] [ 94]
Incumbents not running for reelection [ edit ] ↓ 76 40 7 1 Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal G
Elections Ontario used electronic vote tabulator machines from Dominion Voting Systems for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of CA$32,000,000 .[ 109] [ 110] by-election in Whitby-Oshawa . The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator.[ 110]
The percentage of votes cast for the Progressive Conservatives by riding.
The percentage of votes cast for the NDP by riding.
The percentage of votes cast for the Liberals by riding.
Change in Progressive Conservative vote share by riding compared to the 2014 Ontario election.
Each dot represents five-thousand votes for the party of the associated colour. Data is based on individual riding results. Dots are placed at random positions within the ridings that they belong to.
A
cartogram showing popular vote in each riding.
The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election was 17.96 according to the
Gallagher Index , significantly in favour of the PCs.
Popular vote PC
40.50% New Democratic
33.59% Liberal
19.57% Green
4.60% Others
1.74%
Seat summary PC
61.29% New Democratic
32.26% Liberal
5.65% Green
0.81%
Synopsis of results [ edit ] Results by riding - 2018 Ontario general election[ a 1] Riding Winning party Turnout[ a 2] Votes[ a 3] 2014 1st place Votes Share Margin Margin 2nd place PC NDP Lib Green Ind Other Total Ajax Lib PC 19,078 39.1% 3,948 8.1% NDP 54.6% 19,078 15,130 12,607 1,224 220 601 48,860 Algoma—Manitoulin NDP NDP 17,105 58.6% 9,962 34.1% PC 53.1% 7,143 17,105 2,365 1,025 – 1,573 29,211 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill New PC 25,214 56.0% 15,496 34.4% Lib 55.4% 25,214 9,718 8,116 1,195 – 755 44,998 Barrie—Innisfil Lib PC 22,121 50.0% 9,460 21.4% NDP 54.3% 22,121 12,661 5,543 3,190 – 757 44,272 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte New PC 20,445 44.7% 7,554 16.5% NDP 57.0% 20,445 12,891 6,210 5,354 335 454 45,689 Bay of Quinte Lib PC 24,224 48.0% 8,161 16.2% NDP 56.5% 24,224 16,063 7,511 1,730 379 535 50,442 Beaches—East York Lib NDP 24,064 48.2% 10,584 21.2% Lib 61.2% 9,202 24,064 13,480 2,128 161 879 49,914 Brampton Centre New NDP 12,892 38.4% 89 0.3% PC 50.3% 12,803 12,892 5,825 1,053 – 1,025 33,598 Brampton East NDP NDP 18,062 46.9% 5,166 13.4% PC 51.2% 12,896 18,062 6,398 523 – 616 38,495 Brampton North Lib NDP 14,877 37.5% 497 1.3% PC 51.7% 14,380 14,877 8,410 1,366 – 591 39,624 Brampton South New PC 15,652 41.0% 2,733 7.2% NDP 51.6% 15,652 12,919 7,212 1,472 – 914 38,169 Brampton West Lib PC 14,951 39.4% 490 1.3% NDP 49.9% 14,951 14,461 7,013 999 – 537 37,961 Brantford—Brant Lib PC 24,437 39.4% 635 1.1% NDP 47.7% 24,437 23,802 5,553 2,741 – 1,655 58,188 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC PC 26,874 54.7% 15,037 30.6% NDP 57.2% 26,874 11,837 6,041 2,927 – 1,449 49,129 Burlington Lib PC 25,504 40.4% 7,451 11.8% NDP 58.4% 25,504 18,053 15,515 2,828 – 1,155 63,055 Cambridge Lib PC 17,793 37.0% 2,154 4.5% NDP 63.4% 17,793 15,639 11,191 3,018 – 490 48,131 Carleton New PC 25,798 51.3% 14,490 28.8% NDP 55.2% 25,798 11,308 9,768 1,985 91 1,308 50,258 Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC PC 24,078 51.9% 7,520 16.2% NDP 62.0% 24,078 16,558 3,736 1,643 358 – 46,373 Davenport Lib NDP 27,613 60.3% 19,055 41.6% Lib 56.8% 7,370 27,613 8,558 1,624 69 585 45,819 Don Valley East Lib Lib 13,012 35.9% 1,028 2.8% PC 55.2% 11,984 9,937 13,012 917 – 367 36,217 Don Valley North New PC 18,046 44.4% 5,489 13.5% Lib 53.8% 18,046 8,476 12,557 1,039 – 489 40,607 Don Valley West Lib Lib 17,802 38.9% 181 0.4% PC 61.3% 17,621 8,620 17,802 1,268 – 466 45,777 Dufferin—Caledon PC PC 29,704 53.1% 18,323 32.7% NDP 56.6% 29,704 11,381 6,972 7,011 – 888 55,956 Durham Lib PC 28,575 47.0% 9,322 15.3% NDP 59.9% 28,575 19,253 10,237 2,360 – 382 60,807 Eglinton—Lawrence Lib PC 19,999 40.4% 957 1.9% Lib 60.1% 19,999 8,985 19,042 1,190 – 311 49,527 Elgin—Middlesex—London PC PC 29,264 55.5% 12,341 23.4% NDP 59.4% 29,264 16,923 3,857 2,029 – 694 52,767 Essex NDP NDP 26,134 47.9% 2,711 5.0% PC 56.1% 23,423 26,134 3,026 1,920 – – 54,503 Etobicoke Centre Lib PC 24,432 43.0% 4,724 8.3% Lib 61.9% 24,432 10,311 19,708 1,329 162 883 56,825 Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lib PC 22,626 38.3% 3,225 5.5% NDP 58.6% 22,626 19,401 14,305 2,138 – 523 58,993 Etobicoke North Lib PC 19,055 52.5% 9,845 27.1% NDP 50.6% 19,055 9,210 6,601 1,026 – 414 36,306 Flamborough—Glanbrook New PC 22,454 43.5% 4,824 9.4% NDP 60.6% 22,454 17,630 7,967 2,307 – 1,230 51,588 Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Lib PC 19,952 41.0% 4,543 9.3% Lib 55.4% 19,952 10,610 15,409 1,427 – 1,292 48,690 Guelph Lib Grn 29,082 45.0% 14,998 23.4% PC 61.1% 14,084 13,929 6,537 29,082 – 945 64,577 Haldimand—Norfolk PC PC 28,889 57.1% 15,280 30.2% NDP 59.2% 28,889 13,609 4,656 2,095 – 1,344 50,593 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC PC 32,406 56.7% 17,264 30.2% NDP 59.7% 32,406 15,142 5,655 2,551 – 1,389 57,143 Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 23,866 65.2% 18,136 49.6% PC 48.9% 5,730 23,866 3,982 2,102 156 739 36,575 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP NDP 22,518 51.1% 9,834 22.3% PC 53.1% 12,684 22,518 5,320 1,884 – 1,614 44,020 Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 24,406 54.6% 11,515 25.8% PC 56.2% 12,891 24,406 4,134 2,300 – 986 44,717 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Lib NDP 23,921 43.2% 6,732 12.2% PC 62.3% 17,189 23,921 10,960 2,302 247 771 55,390 Hastings—Lennox and Addington New PC 22,374 50.2% 7,933 17.8% NDP 59.1% 22,374 14,441 5,180 1,924 – 602 44,521 Humber River—Black Creek Lib NDP 11,573 37.4% 2,206 7.1% PC 47.3% 9,367 11,573 8,642 485 – 862 30,929 Huron—Bruce PC PC 27,646 52.4% 12,320 23.3% NDP 63.5% 27,646 15,326 7,356 1,804 – 670 52,802 Kanata—Carleton PC PC 23,089 43.2% 7,497 14.0% NDP 62.3% 23,089 15,592 9,090 2,827 – 2,855 53,453 Kenora—Rainy River NDP PC 9,748 48.6% 2,255 11.2% NDP 54.1% 9,748 7,493 2,123 707 – – 20,071 King—Vaughan New PC 29,136 56.6% 17,124 33.3% Lib 55.5% 29,136 7,921 12,012 1,754 – 638 51,461 Kingston and the Islands Lib NDP 21,788 39.2% 6,476 11.6% Lib 57.3% 14,512 21,788 15,312 3,574 – 458 55,644 Kitchener Centre Lib NDP 20,512 43.4% 7,432 15.7% PC 58.3% 13,080 20,512 9,499 3,234 – 955 47,280 Kitchener—Conestoga PC PC 17,005 39.6% 686 1.6% NDP 59.9% 17,005 16,319 6,035 2,853 – 762 42,974 Kitchener South—Hespeler New PC 16,511 38.9% 770 1.8% NDP 55.8% 16,511 15,741 6,335 3,198 275 423 42,483 Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC PC 27,906 58.3% 11,108 22.0% NDP 60.8% 27,906 16,800 3,143 1,660 – 915 50,424 Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC PC 26,194 52.0% 10,855 21.6% NDP 62.0% 26,194 15,339 5,359 2,410 440 601 50,343 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC PC 30,002 61.3% 20,314 41.5% NDP 60.2% 30,002 9,688 6,543 2,347 – 389 48,969 London—Fanshawe NDP NDP 25,272 55.7% 11,753 25.9% PC 49.6% 13,519 25,272 3,797 2,050 – 753 45,391 London North Centre Lib NDP 25,757 47.6% 9,056 16.7% PC 54.9% 16,701 25,757 8,501 2,493 – 661 54,113 London West NDP NDP 32,644 55.3% 15,511 26.3% PC 60.6% 17,133 32,644 5,847 2,211 – 1,161 58,996 Markham—Stouffville Lib PC 25,912 48.1% 11,905 22.1% Lib 58.6% 25,912 10,997 14,007 2,153 – 777 53,846 Markham—Thornhill New PC 18,943 50.4% 9,783 26.0% Lib 52.2% 18,943 8,010 9,160 859 – 576 37,548 Markham—Unionville Lib PC 29,305 62.4% 20,849 44.4% Lib 54.7% 29,305 7,778 8,456 996 – 405 46,940 Milton New PC 18,249 41.7% 5,185 11.8% Lib 56.1% 18,249 9,740 13,064 2,200 – 536 43,789 Mississauga Centre New PC 17,860 40.9% 5,814 13.3% NDP 49.8% 17,860 12,046 11,102 1,149 – 1,553 43,710 Mississauga East—Cooksville Lib PC 17,862 41.1% 4,739 10.9% Lib 51.5% 17,862 9,871 13,123 1,498 – 1,051 43,405 Mississauga—Erin Mills Lib PC 19,631 41.6% 6,610 14.0% NDP 55.1% 19,631 13,021 11,965 1,296 – 1,265 47,178 Mississauga—Lakeshore Lib PC 22,520 42.3% 3,884 14.0% Lib 59.3% 22,520 9,735 18,636 1,572 – 736 53,199 Mississauga—Malton Lib PC 14,712 39.1% 2,361 6.3% NDP 48.4% 14,712 12,351 7,813 674 1,187 874 37,611 Mississauga—Streetsville Lib PC 20,879 43.5% 8,486 17.7% NDP 55.5% 20,879 12,393 12,344 1,349 – 999 47,964 Nepean PC PC 23,899 45.1% 8,789 16.6% NDP 58.7% 23,899 15,110 10,383 2,739 – 826 52,957 Newmarket—Aurora Lib PC 24,813 47.7% 12,408 23.9% NDP 59.0% 24,813 12,405 11,840 1,859 447 649 52,013 Niagara Centre NDP NDP 21,618 44.2% 3,285 6.7% PC 56.1% 18,333 21,618 5,779 1,803 217 1,124 48,874 Niagara Falls NDP NDP 30,161 50.8% 9,035 15.2% PC 54.6% 21,126 30,161 5,554 2,057 – 483 59,381 Niagara West PC PC 24,394 52.8% 10,625 23.0% NDP 63.3% 24,394 13,769 4,859 2,590 – 578 46,190 Nickel Belt NDP NDP 23,157 63.5% 15,139 41.5% PC 55.4% 8,018 23,157 3,182 1,137 – 973 36,467 Nipissing PC PC 17,598 49.9% 4,604 13.1% NDP 58.2% 17,598 12,994 2,794 997 – 860 35,243 Northumberland—Peterborough South Lib PC 27,386 45.3% 12,582 20.8% NDP 64.6% 27,386 14,804 14,603 2,740 – 890 60,423 Oakville Lib PC 24,837 43.7% 4,510 7.9% Lib 62.5% 24,837 9,424 20,327 1,986 – 297 56,871 Oakville North—Burlington Lib PC 25,691 46.4% 12,195 22.0% NDP 60.2% 25,691 13,496 13,487 2,052 – 625 55,351 Orléans Lib Lib 24,972 39.0% 2,463 3.8% PC 62.8% 22,509 14,033 24,972 1,603 435 398 63,950 Oshawa NDP NDP 24,301 44.9% 1,707 3.2% PC 54.6% 22,594 24,301 4,278 1,957 – 1,013 54,143 Ottawa Centre Lib NDP 29,675 46.1% 8,564 13.3% Lib 61.2% 10,327 29,675 21,111 2,266 – 1,024 64,403 Ottawa South Lib Lib 20,773 39.6% 5,454 10.4% PC 56.9% 15,319 14,250 20,773 1,618 – 456 52,416 Ottawa—Vanier Lib Lib 20,555 42.9% 6,323 13.2% NDP 51.5% 10,252 14,232 20,555 1,955 – 964 47,958 Ottawa West—Nepean Lib PC 16,590 32.8% 175 0.3% NDP 57.0% 16,590 16,415 14,810 1,937 – 793 50,545 Oxford PC PC 29,152 55.7% 13,235 25.3% NDP 59.2% 29,152 15,917 3,620 2,254 335 1,033 52,311 Parkdale—High Park NDP NDP 32,407 59.4% 22,586 41.4% PC 62.4% 9,821 32,407 9,271 2,544 – 506 54,549 Parry Sound—Muskoka PC PC 22,662 48.1% 12,277 26.0% NDP 59.2% 22,662 10,385 4,071 9,438 219 368 47,143 Perth—Wellington PC PC 23,736 50.7% 9,351 20.0% NDP 60.3% 23,736 14,385 5,062 2,746 – 914 46,843 Peterborough—Kawartha PC PC 22,904 37.7% 2,386 3.9% NDP 62.7% 22,904 20,518 14,946 2,024 – 398 60,790 Pickering—Uxbridge Lib PC 22,447 42.2% 5,414 10.2% NDP 58.9% 22,447 17,033 10,851 2,105 373 384 53,193 Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC PC 33,350 69.2% 25,284 52.5% NDP 59.7% 33,350 8,066 4,701 1,436 – 646 48,199 Richmond Hill Lib PC 22,224 51.2% 10,116 23.3% Lib 52.2% 22,224 7,490 12,108 1,248 – 301 43,371 St. Catharines Lib NDP 18,911 36.6% 1,558 3.0% PC 58.1% 17,353 18,911 12,671 1,923 – 792 51,650 Sarnia—Lambton PC PC 26,811 52.7% 7,816 15.4% NDP 60.9% 26,811 18,995 2,246 1,856 71 851 50,830 Sault Ste. Marie Lib PC 13,498 42.0% 414 1.3% NDP 54.5% 13,498 13,084 3,199 1,044 – 1,292 32,117 Scarborough—Agincourt Lib PC 18,582 50.4% 8,153 22.1% Lib 51.3% 18,582 6,434 10,429 635 189 602 36,871 Scarborough Centre Lib PC 15,266 38.4% 2,019 5.1% NDP 53.2% 15,266 13,247 8,791 919 – 1,481 39,704 Scarborough—Guildwood Lib Lib 11,972 33.3% 74 0.2% PC 52.9% 11,898 9,917 11,972 878 66 1,174 35,905 Scarborough North Lib PC 17,413 51.0% 9,093 26.7% NDP 50.8% 17,413 8,320 7,519 543 – 318 34,113 Scarborough—Rouge Park New PC 16,224 38.6% 963 2.3% NDP 55.5% 16,224 15,261 8,785 1,014 – 731 42,015 Scarborough Southwest Lib NDP 19,835 45.7% 6,270 14.4% PC 56.0% 13,565 19,835 8,228 1,174 – 641 43,443 Simcoe—Grey PC PC 34,094 55.9% 20,650 33.9% NDP 57.1% 34,094 13,444 8,780 4,192 – 453 60,963 Simcoe North PC PC 25,236 46.9% 10,158 18.9% NDP 58.9% 25,236 15,078 9,523 3,632 – 320 53,789 Spadina—Fort York Lib NDP 24,677 49.6% 12,907 26.0% Lib 53.4% 10,834 24,677 11,770 1,815 – 635 49,731 Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC PC 26,780 61.5% 17,364 39.9% NDP 54.1% 26,780 9,416 5,386 1,596 – 360 43,538 Sudbury NDP NDP 17,386 48.1% 8,981 24.8% PC 54.2% 8,405 17,386 8,108 1,504 82 682 36,167 Thornhill PC PC 28,889 61.1% 19,755 41.8% NDP 56.2% 28,889 9,134 6,985 1,043 – 1,208 47,259 Thunder Bay—Atikokan Lib NDP 11,793 36.3% 81 0.3% Lib 54.7% 7,555 11,793 11,712 880 – 585 32,525 Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib Lib 11,973 39.9% 813 2.7% NDP 53.8% 5,395 11,160 11,973 838 – 669 30,035 Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP NDP 16,806 61.2% 10,646 38.8% PC 53.1% 6,160 16,806 2,476 723 – 1,296 27,461 Timmins NDP NDP 8,978 57.4% 4,344 27.8% PC 48.1% 4,634 8,978 1,378 273 – 370 15,633 Toronto Centre Lib NDP 23,688 53.7% 11,702 26.5% Lib 54.3% 6,234 23,688 11,986 1,377 – 863 44,148 Toronto—Danforth NDP NDP 32,938 64.2% 24,807 48.4% PC 61.6% 8,131 32,938 7,216 2,248 228 508 51,269 Toronto—St. Paul's Lib NDP 18,843 36.0% 1,345 2.6% Lib 60.7% 13,780 18,843 17,498 1,690 – 591 52,402 University—Rosedale New NDP 24,537 49.7% 13,639 27.6% Lib 56.6% 10,431 24,537 10,898 2,652 220 674 49,412 Vaughan—Woodbridge Lib PC 21,687 50.5% 7,945 18.5% Lib 56.0% 21,687 6,254 13,742 972 – 291 42,946 Waterloo NDP NDP 27,315 50.5% 10,342 19.1% PC 61.8% 16,973 27,315 6,577 2,613 – 566 54,044 Wellington—Halton Hills PC PC 31,659 54.0% 17,572 30.0% NDP 61.1% 31,659 14,087 7,492 5,066 – 320 58,624 Whitby PC PC 26,471 45.8% 5,313 9.2% NDP 60.3% 26,471 21,158 7,441 1,958 – 768 57,796 Willowdale Lib PC 17,732 43.6% 6,917 17.0% Lib 50.5% 17,732 10,481 10,815 932 233 453 40,646 Windsor—Tecumseh NDP NDP 25,221 58.4% 13,544 31.4% PC 47.8% 11,677 25,221 3,513 1,909 863 – 43,183 Windsor West NDP NDP 20,276 52.1% 9,203 23.7% PC 43.3% 11,073 20,276 5,722 1,393 – 435 38,899 York Centre Lib PC 18,434 50.1% 9,817 26.7% NDP 52.9% 18,434 8,617 7,865 843 – 1,002 36,761 York—Simcoe PC PC 26,050 57.3% 15,395 33.8% NDP 54.9% 26,050 10,655 6,182 2,195 – 409 45,491 York South—Weston Lib NDP 13,455 36.1% 1,165 3.1% PC 49.2% 12,290 13,455 10,379 946 – 228 37,298 Kiiwetinoong New NDP 3,232 49.9% 1,467 22.7% PC 45.8% 1,765 3,232 983 406 – 91 6,477 Mushkegowuk—James Bay New NDP 4,827 51.8% 2,032 21.8% PC 54.0% 2,795 4,827 1,332 167 – 203 9,324
[ edit ] Detailed results and analysis [ edit ] Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Ontario (2018)[ 111] [ 112] [ 113] Political party Party leader MPPs Votes Candidates 2014 Dissol. 2018 ± # % ± (pp) Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 124 28 27 76 48 2,326,523 40.19% 9.08 New Democratic Andrea Horwath 124 21 18 40 19 1,929,966 33.34% 9.68 Liberal Kathleen Wynne 124 58 55 7 51 1,124,346 19.42% 19.10 Green Mike Schreiner 124 – – 1 1 264,519 4.57% 0.31 Libertarian Allen Small 117 – – – – 42,822 0.74% 0.04 None of the Above Greg Vezina 42 – – – – 16,146 0.28% 0.20 Independents and no affiliation 32 – 2 – – 8,226 0.14% 0.06 Trillium Bob Yaciuk 26 – 1 – – 8,091 0.14% 0.13 Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday 10 – – – – 5,912 0.10% 0.08 Consensus Ontario Brad Harness 10 – – – – 2,682 0.05% New Freedom Paul McKeever 14 – – – – 2,565 0.04% 0.20 Ontario Party Jason Tysick 5 – – – – 2,316 0.04% New Moderate Yuri Duboisky 16 – – – – 2,199 0.04% 0.03 Communist Dave McKee 12 – – – – 1,471 0.03% 0.01 Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar 5 – – – – 1,239 0.02% 0.01 Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu 3 – – – – 1,078 0.02% New Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen 3 – – – – 802 0.01% New New People's Choice Party Daryl Christoff 3 – – – – 634 0.01% New Special Needs Hilton Milan 5 – – – – 631 0.01% People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 6 – – – – 628 0.01% 0.01 Confederation of Regions vacant 2 – – – – 386 0.01% Stop Climate Change Ken Ranney 2 – – – – 340 0.01% New Canadian Economic Party Patrick Knight 2 – – – – 321 0.01% New Go Vegan Paul Figueiras 2 – – – – 256 – 0.02 Cultural Action Party Arthur Smitherman 3 – – – – 215 – New Multicultural Party of Ontario Wasyl Luczkiw 2 – – – – 191 – New Party of Objective Truth Derrick Matthews 2 – – – – 176 – New Pauper John Turmel 2 – – – – 112 – Social Reform Party Abu Alam 2 – – – – 67 – New Vacant 4 Blank and invalid ballots 61,426 1.06 Total 825 107 107 124 5,806,286 100.00% Registered voters / turnout 10,246,066 56.67% 5.38
Incumbents MPPs who lost their seats [ 114]
38 incumbent Liberal MPPs lost their re-election races, as well as a one Trillium party MPP.
‡ means that the Incumbent was originally from a different riding "b.e." is a short term for "By-election " Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario – seats won by region (2018) Party Toronto 905 Belt Ham/Niagara Central East Midwest Southwest North Total Progressive Conservative 11 21 6 10 11 9 4 4 76 New Democratic 11 4 7 2 2 6 8 40 Liberal 3 3 1 7 Green 1 1 Total 25 25 13 10 16 12 10 13 124
Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests [ edit ] Significant results among independent and minor party candidates [ edit ] Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:
Evolution of voting intentions during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions , with polls weighted by proximity in time and sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date Link Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrat Green Other Margin Sample Polling method Lead Election June 7, 2018 Archive 19.6 40.5 33.6 4.6 1.7 6.9 Forum Research June 6, 2018 PDF 21 39 34 5 1 ±3 pp 2,178 IVR 5 Research Co. June 6, 2018 HTML 20 39 37 4 1 ±3.8 pp 661 Online 2 EKOS June 6, 2018 PDF 18.9 39.1 35.1 4.5 2.4 ±2.8 pp 1,230 IVR 4.0 Pollara June 5, 2018 PDF 17 38 38 6 2 ±3.3 pp 906 (1/3) Online/telephone (rolling) 0 Ipsos June 5, 2018 HTML Archived October 8, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 19 39 36 6* ±3.1 pp 1,501 Online/telephone 3 Mainstreet Research June 4, 2018 HTML 20.2 39.0 34.3 4.9 1.7 ±1.7 pp 3,320 IVR 4.7 Leger June 4, 2018 HTML 18 39 38 5* N/A 1,008 Online 1 Pollara June 4, 2018 PDF 17 39 37 6 1 ±3.0 pp 1,083 (1/4) Online/telephone (rolling) 2 Pollara June 3, 2018 PDF 20 38 37 5 1 ±2.7 pp 1,275 (1/4) Online/telephone (rolling) 1 Forum Research June 2, 2018 PDF 18 38 37 5 2 ±3 pp 2,349 IVR 1 Abacus Data June 2, 2018 HTML Archived August 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 23 33 37 5 2 ±1.9 pp 2,646 Online 4 Pollara June 2, 2018 PDF 20 37 37 5 1 ±2.6 pp 1,447 Online/telephone 0 EKOS May 31, 2018 PDF 19.3 38.6 34.9 5.9 1.2 ±3.1 pp 990 (2/3) IVR (rolling) 3.7 Research Co. May 31, 2018 HTML 18 38 39 4 1 ±3.7 pp 701 Online 1 Forum Research May 29, 2018 PDF 19 39 35 5 2 ±2 pp 2,602 IVR 4 H+K Strategies May 29, 2018 HTML 19 37 39 6 ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online 2 EKOS May 29, 2018 PDF 19.1 37.9 38.4 3.3 1.3 ±3.2 pp 945 IVR 0.5 Angus Reid May 29, 2018 PDF 17 37 39 5 2 ±3.5 pp 773 Online 2 Innovative Research May 29, 2018 PDF 22 34 36 6 2 N/A 958 Online 2 Innovative Research May 29, 2018 PDF 21 34 37 6 1 ±4.0 pp 611 Telephone 3 Pollara May 28, 2018 PDF 17 32 43 5 2 ±3.5 pp 800 Online 11 Media consortium leaders' debate in Toronto (May 27, 2018)[ 116] Mainstreet Research May 27, 2018 HTML 16.0 37.9 39.3 4.5 2.4 ±2.39 pp 1,682 IVR 1.4 Ipsos May 27, 2018 HTML Archived May 29, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 22 37 34 7* ±3.2 pp 1,241 Online/telephone 3 Abacus Data May 26, 2018 HTML Archived July 12, 2019, at the Wayback Machine 23 33 37 4 2 ±3.5 pp 800 Online 4 EKOS May 24, 2018 PDF 20.4 34.9 35.6 7.0 2.1 ±3.1 pp 1,021 IVR 0.7 Forum Research May 23, 2018 PDF 14 33 47 4 2 ±3 pp 906 IVR 14 Innovative Research May 23, 2018 PDF 26 36 31 6 1 N/A 1,074 Online 5 Pollara May 22, 2018 HTML 18 37 38 5 2 ±3.3 pp 870 Online 1 Leger May 22, 2018 PDF 21 37 37 5* ±3.09 pp 1,008 Online 0 Ipsos May 21, 2018 HTML Archived May 23, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 23 36 37 4* ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online 1 Abacus Data May 18, 2018 HTML Archived August 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 24 35 34 5 2 ±1.9 pp 2,824 Online 1 Mainstreet Research May 18, 2018 HTML 22.3 41.9 29.3 5.0 1.4 ±2.02 pp 2,350 IVR 12.6 EKOS May 17, 2018 PDF 23.3 39.1 29.8 5.4 2.3 ±2.9 pp 1,124 IVR 9.3 H+K Strategies May 15, 2018 HTML 23 38 32 7* ±2.5 pp 1,500 Online 6 Ipsos May 14, 2018 HTML Archived May 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 22 40 35 3* ±3.5 pp 1,000 Online 5 Innovative Research May 12, 2018 PDF 27 35 31 6 1 N/A 1,529 Online 4 Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018) Mainstreet Research May 11, 2018 HTML 22.1 42.3 28.4 5.4 1.8 ±1.95 pp 2,534 IVR 13.9 Forum Research May 9, 2018 PDF 22 40 33 4 2 ±4 pp 777 IVR 7 Innovative Research May 9, 2018 PDF Archived May 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 28 38 28 6 1 N/A 915 Online 10 City Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)[ 117]
* Includes support for the Green Party
Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings [ edit ] Date Firm Best Premier ratings Approval ratings Ford Horwath Wynne Ford Horwath Wynne Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove June 6, 2018 Research Co. 36% 55% 54% 34% 29% 64% June 2, 2018 Forum Research 27% 31% 17% 27% 55% 41% 34% 23% 65% June 2, 2018 Abacus Data 25% 48% 42% 20% 21% 56% May 31, 2018 Research Co. 23% 28% 15% 33% 56% 52% 34% 27% 64% May 29, 2018 Forum Research 29% 30% 16% 30% 53% 40% 32% 23% 65% May 29, 2018 Angus Reid 25% 34% 15% May 29, 2018 Innovative Research 23% 30% 14% 30% 54% 48% 23% 25% 59% May 26, 2018 Abacus Data 27% 45% 44% 15% 19% 60% May 23, 2018 Forum Research 30% 33% 15% 32% 51% 43% 26% 19% 69% May 23, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 19% 27% 57% 46% 20% 24% 61% May 22, 2018 Leger 23% 28% 12% May 18, 2018 Abacus Data 26% 46% 42% 13% 17% 60% May 12, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 16% 31% 52% 44% 17% 21% 62% May 9, 2018 Forum Research 34% 49% 42% 25% 20% 71%
[ edit ]
Pre-campaign period [ edit ] Ten-poll average of Ontario opinion polls from June 12, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on June 6, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party.
Polling organisation Last date of polling Source Lib PC NDP Gr Oth Polling type Sample size Margin of error Ipsos May 7, 2018 HTML 26 40 29 – 5 Online/telephone 1,197 ±3.2% EKOS Research May 6, 2018 Twitter 24.4 41.1 25.6 6.5 2 IVR 2,018 ±2.2% Abacus Data May 6, 2018 HTML Archived May 8, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 29 35 29 5 2 Online 1,755 ±2.4% Nanos Research May 6, 2018 PDF 28.5 41.1 24.3 5.9 Telephone 500 ±4.4% Pollara May 4, 2018 HTML 23 40 30 6 1 Online 1,010 ±3.1% Leger April 23, 2018 HTML 26 43 26 – Online 1,000+ Nanos Research April 22, 2018 PDF 30.6 42.2 21.4 5.3 Telephone 2,098 ±2.1% Forum Research April 18, 2018 PDF 21 46 27 4 2 IVR 1,126 ±3% Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 HTML 28.2 44.9 21.3 4.0 1.6 IVR 1,763 ±2.33% Ipsos April 9, 2018 HTML 27 40 28 – 5 Online 800 ±4.0% Innovative Research April 9, 2018 HTML 29.9 42.5 20.7 6.9 1.1 Online 600 ±4.0% Abacus Data April 8, 2018 HTML Archived April 13, 2018, at the Wayback Machine 28 40 24 6 2 Online 4,177 ±1.5% EKOS Research April 5, 2018 PDF 29.3 43.0 20.7 5.2 1.8 IVR 1,067 ±3.0% Mainstreet Research April 4, 2018 HTML 23.9 50.3 18.3 5.2 2.4 IVR 1,969 ±2.21% Forum Research March 29, 2018 PDF 29 36 26 7 2 IVR 728 ±4% Innovative Research March 20, 2018 PDF 26 44 22 7 1 Telephone 603 ±4.0% Mainstreet Research March 18, 2018 HTML 26.2 47.0 18.6 6.4 1.8 IVR 2,003 ±2.23% Campaign Research March 14, 2018 HTML 27 43 23 5 1 Online 1,637 ±2.4% Leger March 14, 2018 PDF 26 42 24 – 8 Online 1,008 ±3.087% Ipsos March 14, 2018 HTML 32 39 25 – 3 Online 803 ±4.0% Forum Research March 11, 2018 PDF 23 44 27 5 2 IVR 923 ±3% 10 March 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party Angus Reid March 7, 2018 PDF 24 50 22 – 4 Online 807 ±3.4% DART February 27, 2018 PDF 19 44 24 – 13 Online 962 ±3.6% Nanos Research February 26, 2018 PDF 30.5 43.5 23.2 2.8 Telephone 502 ±4.4% Forum Research February 23, 2018 PDF 21 46 24 7 2 IVR 1,005 ±3% Ipsos February 19, 2018 HTML 29 38 26 – 7 Online 802 ±4.0% Forum Research February 17, 2018 PDF 24 49 19 7 2 IVR 949 ±3% Campaign Research February 11, 2018 HTML 28 43 20 8 1 Online 1,426 ±2.5% Leger January 2018 HTML 33 36 26 Online 996 ±3.1% Innovative Research January 29, 2018 PDF 32 36 21 9 2 Online 1,027 26 January 2018 Vic Fedeli is appointed as interim leader of the Ontario PC Party Forum Research January 25, 2018 PDF 27 42 23 6 2 IVR 751 ±4% 25 January 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as Ontario PC leader Innovative Research January 17, 2018 PDF 35 38 18 8 1 Online 1,040 Forum Research January 13, 2018 PDF 24 43 24 7 2 IVR 1,022 ±3% Campaign Research January 11, 2018 HTML 34 35 23 6 2 Online 1,544 ±2.5% Mainstreet Research January 6, 2018 PDF 32 43 18 7 IVR 2,375 ±2.01% Nanos Research December 18, 2017 PDF 33.5 41.4 20.5 4.0 Telephone 500 ±4.4% Ipsos December 14, 2017 HTML 28 36 28 – 9 Online 829 ±4.0% Campaign Research December 6, 2017 HTML 35 34 22 7 2 Online 1,495 ±2.5% Forum Research November 30, 2017 PDF 24 40 26 8 2 IVR 861 ±3% Innovative Research November 17, 2017 PDF 31 41 19 8 1 Telephone 607 ±4.0% Campaign Research November 9, 2017 HTML 32 35 23 9 1 Online 1,263 ±2.8% Nanos Research October 29, 2017 PDF 29.2 38.3 26.0 6.4 Telephone 500 ±4.4% Forum Research October 25, 2017 PDF 24 45 22 7 2 IVR 946 ±3% Campaign Research October 11, 2017 HTML 32 36 25 7 1 Online 1,347 ±2.7% Forum Research September 27, 2017 PDF 22 44 27 5 2 IVR 801 ±3% Innovative Research September 18, 2017 PDF 35 40 18 5 1 Telephone 608 ±4.0% Campaign Research September 11, 2017 HTML 33 38 23 6 0 Online 1,133 ±2.9% Ipsos September 11, 2017 HTML 32 39 22 – 7 Online 800 ±4.0% Forum Research August 24, 2017 PDF 25 40 27 6 2 IVR 981 ±3% Nanos Research August 17, 2017 PDF 31.2 42.2 19.5 6.7 Telephone 500 ±4.4% Innovative Research July 19, 2017 HTML 36 40 17 6 1 Telephone 605 ±4.0% Campaign Research July 10, 2017 HTML 31 38 23 6 1 Online 943 ±3% Innovative Research June 27, 2017 HTML 35 39 20 5 1 Telephone 600 ±4.0% Forum Research June 14, 2017 PDF 23 44 24 7 2 IVR 1,003 ±3% Campaign Research June 12, 2017 HTML 30 38 24 7 1 Online 1,118 ±3% Mainstreet Research May 25, 2017 HTML 29 43 24 5 – IVR 2,000 ±2.19% Campaign Research May 13, 2017 HTML 37 34 22 6 1 Online 864 ±4% Forum Research May 10, 2017 PDF 28 41 23 6 3 IVR 1,103 ±3% Campaign Research April 11, 2017 HTML 31 36 25 Online 979 ±3% Innovative Research April 5, 2017 PDF 29 40 23 6 2 Online 779 Forum Research March 30, 2017 PDF 19 43 28 8 2 IVR 884 ±3.3% Mainstreet Research March 12, 2017 HTML 30 40 24 6 – IVR 2,531 ±1.95% Forum Research February 16, 2017 PDF 24 44 25 6 2 IVR 1,120 ±3% Mainstreet Research February 12, 2017 HTML 29 39 27 4 – IVR 2,524 ±1.95% Campaign Research January 29, 2017 HTML 28 50 15 5 2 IVR 676 ±4% Forum Research November 21, 2016 PDF 24 43 24 8 2 IVR 1,184 ±3% Nanos Research November 19, 2016 PDF 31.9 39.9 22.2 5.2 0.8 Telephone 500 ±4.4% Mainstreet Research November 2, 2016 HTML 25 43 27 6 – IVR 2,524 ±1.95% Forum Research October 18, 2016 PDF 24 43 23 8 2 IVR 1,124 ±3% Innovative Research September 24, 2016 PDF 33 38 20 8 – Telephone 600 ±4.0% Ipsos September 22, 2016 HTML 40 35 20 5 – Online 800 ±4% Mainstreet Research September 18, 2016 HTML 28 43 23 6 – IVR 2,562 ±1.94% Forum Research September 13, 2016 PDF 25 45 23 6 2 IVR 1,154 ±3% Ipsos September 9, 2016 HTML 35 37 23 5 – Online 800 ±4% 8 September 2016 Premier Kathleen Wynne prorogues the legislature Forum Research August 15, 2016 PDF 28 41 23 6 2 IVR 1,097 ±3% Forum Research July 12, 2016 PDF 35 42 17 5 2 IVR 1,183 ±3% Forum Research June 21, 2016 PDF 30 40 21 8 2 IVR 1,173 ±3% Forum Research May 31, 2016 PDF 30 40 21 7 2 IVR 1,172 ±3% Mainstreet Research May 18, 2016 HTML 36 38 20 5 – IVR 2,537 ±1.95% Forum Research April 25, 2016 PDF 34 39 21 5 2 IVR 1,157 ±3% Forum Research March 23, 2016 PDF 30 40 24 5 2 IVR 1,225 ±3% Forum Research February 29, 2016 PDF 27 44 22 6 2 IVR 1,148 ±3% Mainstreet Research February 16, 2016 HTML 33 36 26 5 – IVR 2,623 ±1.91% Forum Research December 20, 2015 PDF 31 34 26 7 2 IVR 1,003 ±3% Ipsos November 9, 2015 HTML 44 31 20 4 – Online 1,002 ±3.5% Forum Research November 4, 2015 PDF 30 36 26 6 1 IVR 1,158 ±3% Mainstreet Research November 1, 2015 HTML 28 40 25 7 – IVR 2,506 ±1.96% Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 30 40 24 7 – IVR 4,610 ±1.5% Forum Research August 13, 2015 PDF 26 35 33 4 2 IVR 1,001 ±3% Forum Research July 5, 2015 PDF 26 32 35 5 2 IVR 678 ±4% Ipsos May 20, 2015 HTML 34.13 32.37 25.19 8.31 – Online 1,002 ±3.5% Innovative Research May 19, 2015 PDF 34 35 24 6 – Telephone 606 ±4.0% Forum Research May 11, 2015 PDF 24 33 36 5 2 IVR 1,001 ±3% 9 May 2015 Patrick Brown is elected leader of the Ontario PC Party Forum Research April 30, 2015 PDF 29 36 24 9 2 IVR 912 ±3% Innovative Research April 26, 2015 PDF 40 33 18 8 1 Online 1,017 Forum Research March 26, 2015 PDF 29 34 27 8 2 IVR 881 ±3% Environics March 25, 2015 HTML 32 33 27 7 – Telephone 989 ±3.1% Forum Research February 27, 2015 PDF 32 39 21 6 2 IVR 996 ±3% Forum Research January 30, 2015 PDF 37 36 19 6 2 IVR 1,028 ±3% Forum Research December 20, 2014 PDF 35 36 20 7 2 IVR 1,058 ±3% Forum Research November 29, 2014 PDF 37 37 17 7 2 IVR 1,054 ±3% Forum Research November 1, 2014 PDF 40 35 19 4 2 IVR 1,104 ±3% Forum Research October 1, 2014 PDF 36 34 23 6 1 IVR 1,079 ±3% Forum Research August 21, 2014 PDF 39 32 19 8 2 IVR 1,229 ±3% 2 July 2014 Jim Wilson becomes interim leader of the Ontario PC Party 2 July 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Ontario PC Party 2014 election June 12, 2014 HTML 38.65 31.25 23.75 4.84 1.51
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The percentage of votes cast for the Progressive Conservatives by riding.
The percentage of votes cast for the NDP by riding.
The percentage of votes cast for the Liberals by riding.
Change in Progressive Conservative vote share by riding compared to the 2014 Ontario election.
Each dot represents five-thousand votes for the party of the associated colour. Data is based on individual riding results. Dots are placed at random positions within the ridings that they belong to.
A cartogram showing popular vote in each riding.
The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election was 17.96 according to the Gallagher Index, significantly in favour of the PCs.
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