2019 Japanese House of Councillors election

2019 Japanese House of Councillors election

← 2016 July 21, 2019 2022 →

124 of the 245 seats in the House of Councillors
123 seats needed for a majority
Turnout48.80% (Decrease5.90pp; Const. votes)
48.79% (Decrease5.90pp; National votes)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Shinzō_Abe_20120501_(cropped).jpg
Yukio Edano In front of Tenjin Twin Building (2020.10.18).jpg
Natsuo Yamaguchi.jpg
Leader Shinzō Abe Yukio Edano Natsuo Yamaguchi
Party LDP CDP Komeito
Last election 121 seats Did not exist 25 seats
Seats won 113 32 28
Seat change Decrease8 New Increase3
Constituency vote 20,030,331 7,951,430 3,913,359
% and swing 39.77% (Decrease0.17pp) 15.79% (New) 7.77% (Increase0.23pp)
National vote 17,712,373 7,917,720 6,536,336
% and swing 35.37% (Decrease0.54pp) 15.81% (New) 13.05% (Decrease0.47pp)

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Yuichiro Tamaki IMG 5649-1 20160903 (cropped).jpg
Ichiro Matsui and Toranosuke Katayama.png
Kazuo Shii in SL Square in 2017.jpg
Leader Yuichiro Tamaki Ichiro Matsui
Toranosuke Katayama
Kazuo Shii
Party DPP Ishin JCP
Last election Did not exist 12 seats 14 seats
Seats won 21 16 13
Seat change New Increase4 Decrease1
Constituency vote 3,256,859 3,664,530 3,710,768
% and swing 6.47% (New) 7.28% (Increase1.44pp) 7.37% (Increase0.11pp)
National vote 3,481,078 4,907,844 4,483,411
% and swing 6.95% (New) 9.80% (Increase0.60pp) 8.95% (Decrease1.79pp)

Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength

House of Councillors elections were held in Japan on 21 July 2019 to elect 124 of the 245 members of the upper house of the National Diet for a term of six years.

74 members were elected by single non-transferable vote (SNTV)/First-past-the-post (FPTP) voting in 45 multi- and single-member prefectural electoral districts. The nationwide district elected 50 members by D'Hondt proportional representation with optionally open lists, the previous most open list system was modified in 2018 to give parties the option to prioritize certain candidates over the voters' preferences in the proportional election.[1][2]

The election saw Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition lose the two-thirds majority needed to enact constitutional reform.[3][4] The Liberal Democratic Party also lost its majority in the House of Councillors, but the LDP maintained control of the House of Councillors with its junior coalition partner Komeito.

Background

[edit]

The term of members elected in the 2013 regular election (including those elected in subsequent by-elections or as runners-up) was to end on 28 July 2019. Under the "Public Offices Election Act" (kōshoku-senkyo-hō), the regular election must be held within 30 days before that date, or under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, between 24 and 30 days after the closure of the session and thus potentially somewhat after the actual end of term.[5]

Going into the election, the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito controlled a two-thirds super-majority of seats in the House of Representatives but did not control a similar super-majority of seats in the House of Councillors, necessary to initiate amendments of the Constitution of Japan.

Pre-election composition

[edit]

(as of 15 March 2018)[6]

44 32 6 8 11 70 14 57
Opposition seats not up O seats up RO RO up K up LDP-PJK seats up K LDP-PJK seats not up

In the class of members facing re-election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Kōmeitō and Party for Japanese Kokoro (PJK) had a combined 81 of 121 seats (as of March 2018).[6] The governing coalition would have to lose 30 seats or more to forfeit its overall majority in the House of Councillors and face a technically divided Diet. However, as independents and minor opposition groups might be willing to support the government on a regular basis without inclusion in the cabinet, the losses required to face an actual divided Diet may have been much higher. If the Diet is divided after the election, the coalition's two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives can still override the House of Councillors and pass legislation, but certain Diet decisions, notably the approval of certain nominations by the cabinet such as public safety commission members or Bank of Japan governor, would require the cooperation of at least part of the opposition or an expansion of the ruling coalition.

Among the members facing re-election were House of Councillors President Chuichi Date (LDP, Hokkaido), Kōmeitō leader Natsuo Yamaguchi (K, Tokyo) and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko (LDP, Wakayama at-large district).

District reapportionment

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The following districts saw a change in their representation within the House at this election. One set of reforms were introduced in 2012 and first took effect at the 2013 election. The districts below are affected by the 2015 reforms, which started to take effect in the 2016 election.

In May 2018, the government announced that they are planning to introduce a revision into the Public Offices Election Law before the 2019 election. The proposed changes increased the number seats in the House by 6, 2 seats in the Saitama at-large district and 4 in the national PR block. As Saitama currently has the highest voters-to-councillor ratio, the increase would reduce its ratio gap with the least populous district (below the constitutional 3 to 1 limit). Meanwhile, the seat increase in the PR block is aimed to address the absence of representation of prefectures in the merged-prefecture districts (namely Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kōchi) and popular discontent in those prefectures. The plan also introduced a ranking system for the PR lists. This essentially changed it from a most open list system into a less open list system, mirroring the one used in the House of Representatives elections. To reduce the chance of the non-representation of a prefecture, candidates from prefectures not running in the merged districts were to be prioritised on the list.[7]

Under the plan, the new Saitama seat and two new PR seats were contested in 2019, while the other three would be contested in 2022.

District Magnitude Notes
Hokkaidō 3 Increased from 2
Miyagi 1 Decreased from 2
Tokyo 6 Increased from 5
Niigata 1 Decreased from 2
Nagano 1 Decreased from 2
Aichi 4 Increased from 3
Hyogo 3 Increased from 2
Tottori-Shimane 1 Created from the merger of the single-member Tottori and Shimane districts
Tokushima-Kōchi 1 Created from the merger of the single-member Tokushima and Kochi districts
Fukuoka 3 Increased from 2

Opinion polls

[edit]

Proportional vote intention

[edit]
Date Polling firm/source LDP CDP DPP Kibō Komeito JCP Ishin SDP LP Reiwa Other Und. DK/
no ans.
Lead
13–14 Jul Asahi Shimbun 35 12 2 N/A 6 6 6 2 N/A 1 1 29 6
6–7 Jul JNN 33.7 8.6 0.9 4.7 2.8 3.9 0.6 0.7 28.4 0.9 5.3
4–5 Jul Yomiuri Shimbun 36 10 3 6 4 7 1 0 25 9 11
28–30 Jun Nikkei 44 14 1 6 4 6 2 18 5 26
28–30 Jun Yomiuri Shimbun 40 10 2 5 4 6 2 0 23 7 17
26–27 Jun Kyodo News 28.8 9.0 1.6 5.6 3.4 3.2 1.2 0.2 39.2 0.9 10.4
22–23 Jun Asahi Shimbun 40 13 2 6 5 6 1 1 2 23 17
5 Jun Kibō no Tō loses its legal status as a political party and becomes a political organization.
1–2 Jun JNN 41.0 7.0 1.1 0.2 3.2 3.6 2.2 0.3 N/A 0.6 26.3 14.5 14.7
18–19 May ANN Archived 2019-06-01 at the Wayback Machine 35.9 9.9 1.3 0.0 5.5 3.2 3.3 0.9 1.3 N/A 34.6 26
18–19 May Asahi Shimbun 37 12 3 1 6 5 7 1 2 N/A 26 25
18–19 May Kyodo News 38.2 11.2 1.1 0.4 4.1 3.8 4.6 0.7 0.1 N/A 35.8 27
11–12 May JNN 38.4 7.3 0.8 0.3 3.9 3.3 3.2 0.6 0.6 29.2 12.5 31.1
10–12 May Nikkei & TV Tokyo 43 11 2 0 5 4 7 1 0 19 7 32
26 Apr The Liberal Party is merged into the Democratic Party for the People.
20–21 Apr ANN Archived 2019-04-23 at the Wayback Machine 35.4 9.1 1.1 0.1 4.3 4.9 4.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 N/A 34.3 26.3
6 Mar – 15 Apr Asahi Shimbun 43 17 3 1 5 5 6 2 1 2 N/A 15 26
13–14 Apr Asahi Shimbun 39 13 2 0 5 6 7 1 1 2 N/A 24 26
6–7 Apr JNN 38.5 6.5 0.9 0.1 3.8 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 28.7 14.3 32

Results

[edit]
PartyNationalConstituencySeats
Votes%SeatsVotes%SeatsNot upWonTotal
after
+/–
Liberal Democratic Party17,712,37335.371920,030,33139.77385657113–7
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan7,917,72115.8187,951,43015.799151732New
Komeito6,536,33613.0573,913,3597.777141428+3
Nippon Ishin no Kai4,907,8449.8053,664,5307.28561016+4
Japanese Communist Party4,483,4118.9543,710,7687.3736713–1
Democratic Party For the People3,481,0786.9533,256,8596.47315621New
Reiwa Shinsengumi2,280,2534.552214,4380.430022New
Social Democratic Party1,046,0122.091191,8200.3801120
NHK Party987,8851.9711,521,3443.020011New
Assembly to Consider Euthanasia269,0520.540215,1810.430000New
Happiness Realization Party202,2790.400187,4910.3700000
Olive Tree [ja]167,8980.34091,6750.180000New
Workers Party Aiming for Liberation of Labor [ja]80,0560.16075,3180.150000New
Independents of Japan3,5860.010000New
Independents5,335,64110.5998917+5
Total50,072,198100.005050,363,771100.0074121124245+3
Valid votes50,072,35296.9250,363,77197.47
Invalid/blank votes1,592,5273.081,307,3082.53
Total votes51,664,879100.0051,671,079100.00
Registered voters/turnout105,886,06448.79105,886,06348.80
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

By constituency

[edit]
Northen Japan
Prefecture Seats Up Incumbents Party Result Candidates
Hokkaido 3 Chūichi Date Liberal Democratic Apportionment increased by 1

incumbents retired

Harumi Takahashi (LDP) 34.4%
Kenji Katsube (CDP) 21.7%
Tsuyohito Iwamoto (LDP) 18.8%
Kazuya Hatayama (JCP) 11.0%
Nami Haraya (DPP) 9.4%
Takahira Yamamoto (NHK) 2.6%
Osamu Nakamura (AtCE) 1.0%
Yoshinori Moriyama (HRP) 0.6%
Seiji Iwase (Worker) 0.4%
Katsuya Ogawa Constitutional Democratic
Aomori 1 Motome Takisawa Liberal Democratic Liberal Democratic hold Motome Takisawa (LDP) 51.5%
Toru Odagiri (CDP) 44.4%
Hinako Koyama (NHK) 4.1%
Iwate 1 Tatsuo Hirano Independent Takanori Yokosawa (LDP) 49.0%Tatsuo Hirano (CDP) 46.3%

Hidekazu Kajitani (NHK) 4.7%

Miyagi 1 Jiro Aichi Liberal Democratic Seats reduced by one due to change in apportionment
Constitutional Democratic Party gain
Noriko Ishigaki (CDP) 48.6%
Jiro Aichi (LDP) 47.7%
Noriaki Miyake (NHK) 3.7%
Masamune Wada Your Party
Akita 1 Matsuji Nakaizumi Liberal Democratic Shizuka Terata (Independent) 50.5%
Matsuji Nakaizumi (LDP) 46.1%
Ryuji Ishioka (NHK) 3.5%
Yamagata 1 Mizuho Onuma Liberal Democratic Michiya Haga (Independent) 50.2%
Mizuho Onuma (LDP) 47.3%
Kenji Onozawa (NHK) 2.5%
Fukushima 1 Masako Mori Liberal Democratic Masako Mori (LDP) 54.1%
Sachiko Mizuno (Independent) 41.9%
Masahito Tayama (NHK) 4.0%
Eastern and Central Japan
Prefecture Seats Up Incumbents Party Result Candidates
Ibaraki 2 Ryosuke Kozuki Liberal Democratic Ryosuke Kozuki (LDP) 47.9%
Takumi Onuma (CDP) 22.4%
Kumiko Ōchi (JCP) 12.2%
Tōru Umino (Nippon Ishin) 11.9%
Ken Tanaka (NHK) 5.6%
Yukihisa Fujita Constitutional Democratic
Tochigi 1 Katsunori Takahashi Liberal Democratic Katsunori Takahashi (LDP) 53.5%
Chiho Kato (CDP) 41.0%
Norimitsu Machida (NHK) 5.5%
Gunma 1 Ichita Yamamoto Liberal Democratic Masato Shimizu (LDP) 53.9%
Atsuko Saito (CDP) 38.6%
Mikako Maeda (NHK) 7.4%
Saitama 4 Toshiharu Furukawa Liberal Democratic 1 seat gained by reapportionment Toshiharu Furukawa (LDP) 28.2%
Hiroto Kumagai (CDP) 19.3%
Katsuo Yakura (Komeito) 19.1%
Gaku Ito (JCP) 12.9%
Chie Shishido (DPP) 8.8%
Ryo Sawada (Nippon Ishin)
Eriko Sato (NHK) 2.9%
Ryoji Samejima (Euthanasia) 0.8%
Ichiro Kojima (HRP) 0.7%
Katsuo Yakura Komeito
Kuniko Koda Your Party
Chiba 3 Junichi Ishī Liberal Democratic Junichi Ishī (LDP) 30.5%
Hiroyuki Nagahama (CDP) 28.9%
Toshiro Toyoda (LDP) 19.1%
Fumiko Asano (JCP) 15.7%
Masayuki Hiratsuka (NHK) 3.9%
Masanori Kadota (Euthenasia) 1.9%
Toshirō Toyoda Liberal Democratic
Hiroyuki Nagahama Constitutional Democratic
Tokyo 6 Tamayo Marukawa Liberal Democratic 1 seat added by reapportionment Tamayo Marukawa (LDP) 19.9%
Natsuo Yamaguchi (Komieto) 14.2%
Yoshiko Kira (JCP) 12.3%
Ayaka Shiomura (CDP) 12.0%
Shun Okita (Nippon Ishin) 9.2%
Keizo Takemi (LDP) 9.1%
Issei Yamagishi (CDP) 8.6%
Yoshimasa Nohara (Reiwa) 3.7%
Motoko Mizuno (DPP) 3.2%
Masanobu Ohashi (NHK) 2.3%
Nozue Chinpei (Independent)
Reiko Asakura (SDP) 1.5%
Hiroko Nanami (HRP) 0.6%
Hitoshi Sato (Euthanasia) 0.5%
Masahiro Yokoyama (Euthanasia) 0.4%
Koichi Mizoguchi (Olive) 0.3%
Jun Mori (Independent) 0.3%
Yasuhiro Sekiguchi (Independent) 0.2%
Sadakichi Nishino (Independent) 0.2%
Kikuo Otsuka (JIP) 0.1%
Natsuo Yamaguchi Komeito
Yoshiko Kira Constitutional Democratic
Tarō Yamamoto Reiwa Shinsengumi
Keizō Takemi Liberal Democratic
Kanagawa 4 Dai Shimamura Liberal Democratic Dai Shimamura (LDP) 25.2%
Hiroe Makiyama (CDP) 20.4%
Sayaka Sasaki (Komeito) 16.9%
Shigefumi Matsuzawa (Nippon Ishin) 15.8%
Yuka Asaga (JCP) 11.6%
Ryosuke Nogi (DPP) 3.5%
Daisuke Hayashi (NHK)
Rinko Aihara (SDP) 1.7%
Masakatsu Morishita (Independent) 0.6%
Aiko Iki (HRP) 0.6%
Tomoyuki Kato (Euthanasia) 0.6%
Taishi Enomoto (Olive) 0.5%
Mitsugu Shibuya (Independent)
Takayuki Akutsu (Worker) 0.2%
Shigefumi Matsuzawa Your Party
Sayaka Sasaki Komeito
Hiroe Makiyama Constitutional Democratic
Niigata 1 Ichiro Tsukada Liberal Democratic Sakura Uchikoshi (I - CDP) 50.5%
Ichiro Tsukada (LDP) 46.4%
Tadafumi Kojima (NHK) 3.2%
Naoki Kazama Constitutional Democratic
Toyama 1 Shigeru Dōko Liberal Democratic Shigeru Doko (LDP) 66.7%
Masae Nishio (DPP) 33.3%
Ishikawa 1 Shūji Yamada Liberal Democratic Shuji Yamada (LDP) 67.2%
Toru Tanabe (DPP) 32.8%
Fukui 1 Hirofumi Takinami Liberal Democratic Hirofumi Takinami (LDP) 66.1%
Kazuo Yamada (JCP) 26.2%
Masami Shimatani (NHK) 7.7%
Yamanashi 1 Hiroshi Moriya Liberal Democratic Hiroshi Moriya (LDP) 53.0%
Tomoko Ichiki (Independent) 43.2%
Keiji Ino (NHK) 3.8%
Nagano 1 Hiromi Yoshida Liberal Democratic Yuichiro Hata (DPP) 55.1%
Hiroshi Komatsu (LDP) 39.5%
Takashi Furuya (NHK) 3.3%
Yoshiaki Saito (Worker) 2.1%
Yuichiro Hata Constitutional Democratic
Gifu 1 Yasutada Ōno Liberal Democratic Yasutada Ōno (LDP) 56.4%
Shinichi Umemura (CDP) 36.1%
Masahiko Sakamoto (NHK) 7.5%
Shizuoka 2 Takao Makino Liberal Democratic Takao Makino (LDP) 38.5%
Kazuya Shimba (DPP) 29.4%
Iehiro Tokugawa (CDP) 19.9%
Chika Suzuki (JCP) 9.0%
Koichi Hatayama (NHK) 3.2%
Kazuya Shimba Constitutional Democratic
Aichi 4 Yasuyuki Sakai Liberal Democratic 1 seat added by reapportionment Tsuneyuki Sakai (LDP) 25.7%
Kohei Otsuka (DPP) 17.7%
Maiko Taijima (CDP) 16.1%
Nobuo Yasue (Komeito) 15.8%
Maki Misaki (Nippon Ishin) 9.4%
Hatsumi Suyama (JCP) 7.6%
Yukari Suenaga (NHK) 3.0%
Ryohei Hirayama (SDP) 1.5%
Hitoshi Ishi (Independent) 1.1%
Hiroyuki Ushida (Euthanasia) 0.9%
Hitoshi Furukawa (Worker) 0.6%
Tsutomu Hashimoto (Olive) 0.6%
Kohei Otsuka Constitutional Democratic
Michiyo Yakushiji Your Party
Mie 1 Yūmi Yoshikawa Liberal Democratic Yumi Yoshikawa (LDP) 50.3%
Masahide Yoshino (Independent) 44.3%
Kadota Setsuyo (NHK) 5.4%
Western Japan
Prefecture Seats Up Incumbents Party Result Candidates (Party)

Vote share

Shiga 1 Takeshi Ninoyu Liberal Democratic Yukiko Kada (I-CDP) 49.4%
Ninoyu Takeshi (LDP) 47.0%
Osamu Hattori (NHK) 3.6%
Kyoto 2 Shoji Nishida Liberal Democratic Shoji Nishida (LDP) 44.2%
Akiko Kurabayashi (JCP) 25.8%
Hiroko Masuhara (CDP) 24.4%
Akihisa Yamada (NHK) 3.9%
Takashi Mikami (Olive) 1.7%
Akiko Kurabayashi Constitutional Democratic
Osaka 4 Tōru Azuma Nippon Ishin Mizuho Umemura (Nippon Ishin) 20.9%
Toru Azuma (Nippon Ishin) 18.9%
Hisatake Sugi (Komeito) 16.9%
Fusae Ota (LDP) 16.0%
Kotaro Tatsumi (JCP) 10.9%
Michiko Kameishi (CDP) 10.2%
Nishanta (DPP) 3.7%
Takinori Ozaki (NHK) 1.2%
Takeshi Hamada (Euthanasia) 0.4%
Keigo Kazumori (HRP) 0.3%
Mio Adachi (Olice) 0.3%
Ichiro Sasaki (Worker 0.2%)
Takuji Yanagimoto Liberal Democratic
Hisatake Sugi Komeito
Kotaro Tatsumi Communist Party
Hyōgo 3 Yoshitada Konoike Liberal Democratic
Takayuki Shimizu Nippon Ishin
Nara 1 Iwao Horii Liberal Democratic
Wakayama 1 Hiroshige Sekō Liberal Democratic
Tottori-Shimane 1 Shōji Maitachi Liberal Democratic
Okayama 1 Masahiro Ishii Liberal Democratic
Hiroshima 2 Kensei Mizote Liberal Democratic
Shinji Morimoto Constitutional Democratic
Yamaguchi 1 Yoshimasa Hayashi Liberal Democratic
Tokushima 1 Tōru Miki Liberal Democratic
Kagawa 1 Shingo Miyake Liberal Democratic
Ehime 1 Takumi Ihara Liberal Democratic
Kōchi 1 Kojiro Nakano Liberal Democratic
Southern Japan
Prefecture Seats Up Incumbents Party Result Candidates (Party)

Vote share

Fukuoka 3 Masaji Matsuyama Liberal Democratic
Kuniyoshi Noda Constitutional Democratic
Saga 1 Yūhei Yamashita Liberal Democratic
Nagasaki 1 Yūichirō Koga Liberal Democratic
Kumamoto 1 Seishi Baba Liberal Democratic
Ōita 1 Yōsuke Isozaki Liberal Democratic
Miyazaki 1 Makoto Nagamine Liberal Democratic
Kagoshima 1 Hidehisa Otsuji Liberal Democratic
Okinawa 1 Keiko Itokazu Okinawa SM Party

Notes

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ NHK kaisetsu blog archive, 19 July 2018: 「参院定数6増 比例特定枠導入~選挙制度改革行方は」(時論公論)
  2. ^ MIC, electoral system news, 24 October 2018: 参議院議員選挙制度の改正について
  3. ^ "Forces seeking to change Japan's Constitution to lose 2/3 majority in upper house". July 22, 2019 – via Mainichi Daily News.
  4. ^ "Abe wins upper house poll but suffers constitutional reform setback". Kyodo News+.
  5. ^ e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法 Archived 2016-07-29 at the Wayback Machine, chapter 5 (election dates), article 32 (regular elections)
  6. ^ a b House of Councillors: Members Strength of the Political Groups in the House (only caucus totals and female members; full Japanese version partitioned by class/end of term and election segment 会派別所属議員数一覧)
  7. ^ Hisanaga, Ryuichi (29 May 2018). "LDP compiles plan to revise Upper House election system". Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 30 May 2018.[permanent dead link]