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Deutsch2022 Mexican presidential recall referendum
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Do you agree that Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, should have his mandate revoked due to loss of confidence or that he should continue in the Presidency of the Republic until his period concludes? | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Mexican presidential recall election, officially called the Recall Process of the President of the Republic elected for the constitutional period 2018–2024 (Spanish: Proceso de Revocación de Mandato del Presidente de la República electo para el periodo constitucional 2018–2024) by the electoral organization Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE), was held in Mexico on 10 April 2022 to decide if the incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador should stay in office and serve his full six-year term.[1][2]
To be valid, the recall must be approved by an absolute majority of valid votes, and the turnout must be at least 40%. This is the first national recall election in Mexico. It was proposed by López Obrador himself during his candidacy in the 2018 election and requested by opponents and supporters of his government. It is organized by the INE, triggered by 2.7 million signatures from 17 Mexican states that represented 3% of the electoral roll, following rules set by the Constitution of Mexico and the Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate.
The INE, which started preparations in August 2021, stated that there was a lack of resources for the consultation organization, causing it to challenge the budget approved by the Chamber of Deputies and ask the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation for their stance. In contrast, the president and other government figures assured that the organization did have the appropriate money. After suspending preparations, the decision for suspension was revoked by the Supreme Court's recess commission and the Federal Electoral Tribunal, which ordered the INE to perform the consultation. With that, on 4 February, the call for consultation was approved, causing the installation of 57,377 polling stations and 1.5 billion Mexican pesos available for the INE, less than half of the initially requested money.
Background
[edit]From his presidential campaign, López Obrador promised to hold a recall election two years into his eventual government.[3] Later, in government, on 19 March 2019, he signed a letter which stated ″In 2021, a consultation will be held to ask the citizens if they want me to continue governing or resign″ and rejected that ″the proposition of holding the recall conceals the intention to reelect me in 2024,″[4] an accusation made by some opposition figures of the government.[5] In October of the same year, the Mexican Senate approved the recall election in general, with 98 votes in favor, 22 against, and one abstention. For the particular changes in the Constitution relative to the recall election, the Senate voted 90 in favor, 22 against.[6] In November, the Chamber of Deputies also approved it in general, with 372 votes in favor and 75 against. For the particular modifications in the Constitution, the Chamber of Deputies voted 356 in favor and 84 against.[7] In December, once endorsed by 17 state congresses, the decree was published in the Official Journal of the Federation.[8]
Despite being planned for 2021, the constitutional changes stipulated its realization one year later, in 2022.[9] At the start of August 2021, after the corruption trial referendum, López Obrador insisted that he himself would promote the recall election.[10] To this end, later in that month, the leader of the senators for the governing party Morena, Ricardo Monreal Ávila, signaled that he would look for an extraordinary period of the Congress to address the regulation of the recall process with the proposal ″Federal Law of Revocation of Mandate″ and seeking to eliminate the phrase ″because of loss of confidence″ from the proposal. The initial referendum wording proposed was ″Do you agree that the tenure of the person holding the position of the president of the Republic be terminated early, due to loss of confidence?″[11] Nevertheless, the legislative groups of Morena, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and Labor Party (PT), did not get the necessary votes to convene the special session.[12]
Opinion polls
[edit]
These polls were conducted after the federal law for recall elections and the referendum question were published. Some of these polls asked if the respondents approved of the president, not necessarily their stance on the referendum.
| Date | Brand | Sample size | Resign | Continue | Undecided | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-12 March 2022 | SIMO Consulting[13] | 800 | 24% | 74% | 2% | ±3.46% |
| 11-13, 18-19, and 25-26 February 2022 | El Financiero[14] | 1,000 | 30% | 63% | 7% | ±3.1% |
| 21 February 2022 | Massive Caller[15] | 2,000 | 30.3% | 69.7% | — | ±2.2% |
| 13-14 February 2022 | TResearch[16] | 1,000 | 36.4% | 60.5% | 3.0% | Unknown |
| 7 February 2022 | Massive Caller[17] | 1,000 | 37.0% | 59.5% | 3.5% | ±3.4% |
| 14-15 and 28-30 January 2022 | El Financiero[18] | 1,000 | 40% | 55% | — | ±3.1% |
| 4-6 December 2021 | Parametría[19] | 800 | 27% | 67% | 6% | ±3.5% |
| 10-12 and 17-19 December 2021 | El Financiero[20] | 1,100 | 33% | 63% | — | ±3.0% |
| 24-28 November 2021 | Reforma[21] | 1,000 | 26% | 68% | — | ±4.5% |
| 12-13 and 26-28 November 2021 | El Financiero[22] | 1,000 | 34% | 62% | — | ±3.1% |
| 18-23 November 2021 | El Universal[23] | Unknown | 22% | 76% | 2% | Unknown |
| 15-16 and 29-31 October 2021 | El Financiero[24] | 1,002 | 30% | 69% | 1% | ±3.1% |
| 10-11 and 24-28 September 2021 | El Financiero[25] | 900 | 31% | 66% | 3% | ±3.3% |
References
[edit]- ^ "México: Autoridad electoral aprueba convocatoria para revocación de mandato". Los Angeles Times (in Spanish). 5 February 2022. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ "Mexican presidential recall referendum wins enough support: poll body". France 24. 18 January 2022.
- ^ "«El pueblo pone, el pueblo quita»: AMLO propone revocación de mandato". Regeneración. Regeneración. 2 April 2018. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ "Revocación de mandato no es reelección: presidente AMLO". AMLO. 19 March 2019. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ "AMLO rechaza buscar reelección en México y se compromete a referendo revocatorio". RFI. RFI. 19 March 2019. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ León, Mariana (15 October 2019). "Senado aprueba Revocación de Mandato; "huele a reelección", acusan panistas". Expansión Política. Expansión Política. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ ""El pueblo pone, el pueblo quita": el Congreso aprueba la revocación de mandato". Expansión Política. Expansión Política. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Ferrer, Angélica (20 December 2019). "Publican en el DOF disposiciones sobre consulta popular y revocación de mandato". El Financiero. El Financiero. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ de Aragón Espejo, Adriana (14 April 2020). "AMLO plantea adelantar revocación de su mandato para 2021". Noticieros Televisa. Noticieros Televisa. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ "López Obrador anuncia referendo revocatorio de su mandato". Associated Press. Associated Press. 2 August 2021. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ García, Carina (12 August 2021). "Revocación de mandato: Monreal empuja extraordinario para modificar la pregunta". Expansión Política. Expansión Política. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Pérez, Maritza (19 August 2021). "Impide oposición nuevo periodo extra para ley de revocación". El Economista. El Economista. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Manetto, Francesco (29 March 2022). "López Obrador resiste el desgaste y mantiene una aprobación del 59% a las puertas de la revocación de mandato". El País. El País. Retrieved 29 March 2022.
- ^ Moreno, Alejandro (3 March 2022). "Si hoy fuera la consulta de revocación de mandato, ¿AMLO sigue o se va?". El Financiero. El Financiero. Archived from the original on 6 March 2022. Retrieved 29 March 2022.
- ^ "ESTUDIO ENTREGADO POR MASSIVE CALLER RELATIVO A LA REVOCACIÓN DE MANDATO 2022". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Instituto Nacional Electoral. 21 February 2022. Retrieved 29 March 2022.
- ^ "ESTUDIO ENTREGADO POR TRESEARCH RELATIVO A LA REVOCACIÓN DE MANDATO 2022". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Instituto Nacional Electoral. 15 February 2022. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ "ESTUDIO ENTREGADO POR MASSIVE CALLER RELATIVO A LA REVOCACIÓN DE MANDATO 2022". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Instituto Nacional Electoral. 8 February 2022. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Moreno, Alejandro (3 February 2022). "AMLO arranca 2022 con caída en aprobación; baja a 60%". El Financiero. El Financiero. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ "¿Hay alternativas a la consulta de revocación de mandato?". Parametría. Parametría. 7 January 2022. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Moreno, Alejandro (4 January 2022). "AMLO registra en diciembre su mejor nivel de aprobación del 2021". El Financiero. El Financiero. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ "ENCUESTA: Baja aprobación de López Obrador". YouTube. Grupo REFORMA. 1 December 2021. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Moreno, Alejandro (1 December 2021). "Gira por EU 'da alas' a AMLO: Aprobación repunta a 66% en noviembre". El Financiero. El Financiero. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Buendia, Jorge (26 November 2021). "AMLO sube aprobación, pese a percepción en seguridad". El Universal. El Universal. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Moreno, Alejandro (3 November 2021). "Mexicanos difieren con AMLO sobre críticas a la UNAM". El Financiero. El Financiero. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
- ^ Moreno, Alejandro (4 October 2021). "Mes patrio le da 'empujoncito' a AMLO': sube a 61% de aprobación". El Financiero. El Financiero. Retrieved 28 March 2022.
