2023 Ecuadorian constitutional referendum

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A constitutional referendum was held in Ecuador on 5 February 2023, alongside local elections. The binding consultation was called on 29 November 2022 by President Guillermo Lasso.[1][2] Voters were asked to approve or reject a total of eight questions surrounding changes to the Constitution of Ecuador.[3] Soon after the referendum, Reuters, Al Jazeera, CNN en Español and the Financial Times projected the failure of all eight of its proposals, with president Guillermo Lasso eventually conceding defeat.[4][5][6][7]

Background

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Guillermo Lasso was elected President of Ecuador in the 2021 Ecuadorian general election against a candidate supported by former President Rafael Correa. Lasso had previously been defeated in the 2013 and 2017 elections before winning in 2021. However, Lasso's CREO party did not receive a majority of seats in the National Assembly, leading to a minority government.

Upon assuming the presidency, Lasso faced a number of crises in parliament, which added to the strikes and protests by indigenous groups against poverty and mining activities and oil exploration on their ancestral lands. These protests led to six deaths and hundreds of injuries before a new agreement was reached with the government at the end of June 2022.[8][9]

In a politically fragile position, Lasso announced on 12 September 2022 his plans to hold a popular vote on eight questions which would allow him to "face problems Ecuador has not been able to solve in the past". This included extradition of Ecuadorians accused of working in international organised crime, reducing the number of National Assembly members from 137 to 100, establishing protection of water resources and funding for communities and groups for nature conservation. Many of these issues would involve revising the constitution to be implemented.[9][10]

Lasso's predecessors Lenin Moreno and Rafael Correa both sought public input through a popular vote, in 2018 and 2017 respectively.[11]

After the questions were approved by the constitutional court, President Lasso signed a decree on 29 November to hold a referendum on 5 February 2023, the same day as elections for municipal and provincial councillors as well as members of the Council for Citizen Participation and Social Control.[3][12] The results of the referendum are legally binding. The official campaign period begins on 3 January at midnight.[13]

Referendum questions

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The referendum has eight questions, each of which modify one or more articles of the constitution.[14][15]

Currently, extradition of Ecuadorian citizens is prohibited, regardless of the crime committed. The first referendum question would permit the extradition of individuals demanded by other countries for the crimes related to international organised crime, including drug trafficking, arms trafficking, human trafficking and migrant smuggling.[16] This has been called the most controversial of the referendum questions.[13][17] Since 2016, Ecuador has seen an increase in its rate of homicide, from 5.8 per 100,000 in 2016 to 19.6 per 100,000 in 2022, the highest rate ever recorded in the country. Authorities believe this to be due to clashes between rival gangs for control of the drug market.[18]

The second referendum question focuses on judicial reform. Currently, the Judicial Council selects, trains, evaluates, promotes and sanctions prosecutors. The proposal suggests putting that control in the hands of the Attorney General, who would exercise these powers through a Fiscal Council.[16][19]

Currently, the National Assembly is composed of 137 seats, of which 116 are elected through districts that correspond to the borders of the 24 Provinces of Ecuador, 15 from a national list, and six seats reserved for the diaspora. The seats are due to increase to 152 seats in the next elections to correspond with increases in the country's population. The third referendum question asks whether to reduce the number of seats to 100: one seat for each of the 24 provinces, then one seat for every 250,000 inhabitants per province, two seats for every million inhabitants in the national constituency, and one seat for every 500,000 members of the diaspora.[16][20]

In 2023, Ecuador had 272 political parties. The fourth referendum question suggests setting a minimum number of members for a political party to be registered and participate in elections. This minimum would be set at 1.5% of the total number of registered voters in district where they are running. Political parties will have to keep a register of their members which can be audited by the National Electoral Council.[16][21]

The Council for Citizen Participation and Social Control has the power to appoint 77 government positions, including Attorney General, State Comptroller, the Ombudsman and members of the National Electoral Council. The fifth referendum question suggests entrusting this power with the National Assembly, within a framework of public policies guaranteeing citizen participation, meritocracy and citizen control.[22][23]

Members of the Council for Citizen Participation and Social Control (CPCCS) are directly elected every four years by the population during national elections. Referendum question six proposes allowing the National Assembly to choose members of the council through indirect suffrage.[22][24]

Currently, the constitution excludes water protection areas from the National System of Protected Areas in Ecuador. Referendum question seven would create a water protection agency within the National System.[16][25]

The eighth referendum question would provide compensation to individuals, communities, and indigenous peoples for environmental damages.[16][26]

Opinion polls

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Opinion polls conducted prior to the voted consistently indicated that all the questions would receive positive responses, mostly by ample margins.

Date Source Sample Confidence Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
6 January 2023 Clima Social[27] 3,910 95% 69.3% 21.1% 61.9% 23.6% 82.3% 11.1% 79.9% 11.7% 49.4% 27.1% 54.8% 21.4% 79.9% 10.7% 77.8% 12.3%
21 December 2022 IPSOS[28] 2,490 95% 68% 32% 72% 28% 86% 14% 82% 18% 69% 31% 76% 24% 88% 12% 84% 16%
15 December 2022 CEDATOS[29] 2,508 95% 61.3% 30.9% 64.1% 24.5% 73.3% 18.9% 65.1% 22.0% 58.5% 25.1% 54.9% 26.8% 71.1% 17.0% 69.2% 21.1%
1–4 October 2022 IPSOS[30] 2,490[31] 95% 72% 28% 72% 28% 81% 19% 75% 25% 67% 33% - - 76% 24% 77% 23%
14–17 September 2022 CEDATOS[32] 2,300 +/- 2.4% 71.9% 21.7% 71.5% 17.8% 81.4% 12.2% 75.1% 13.8% 66.7% 18.3% - - 75.6% 13.2% 76.8% 14.5%

Results

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Despite opinion polls predicting a large majority in favor of approving all measures, each was rejected.[33] However, the electoral authority claims a lot of counterfeit ballots were submitted with "no".[34]

Question For Against Blank Invalid Registered
voters 		Turnout Outcome
Votes % Votes %
1 Extradition 3,930,186 48.46 4,180,555 51.54 1,937,911 937,766 13,450,047 81.68 Rejected
2 Changes in the Office of the Prosecutor 3,433,089 43.29 4,497,565 56.71 2,103,472 948,593 81.66 Rejected
3 Reduction of Assembly members 3,722,695 46.93 4,209,161 53.07 2,098,319 956,393 81.68 Rejected
4 Reduction of political organizations 3,595,753 45.45 4,315,829 54.55 2,118,974 956,377 81.69 Rejected
5 Power to designate control authorities 3,381,729 42.37 4,600,312 57.63 2,036,592 968,370 81.69 Rejected
6 Form of election of the CPCCS 3,321,974 42.13 4,563,193 57.87 2,137,580 962,260 81.67 Rejected
7 Water protection subsystem 3,501,821 44.59 4,352,017 55.41 2,182,036 949,381 81.67 Rejected
8 Compensation for environmental damages 3,438,661 44.04 4,368,848 55.96 2,236,660 939,646 81.66 Rejected
Source: CNE[35]

References

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  1. ^ "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Auslieferung von Staatsangehörigen ins Ausland". Direct Democracy. 5 February 2023.
  2. ^ "Estas son las seis preguntas del referendo del presidente Lasso". Primicias (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  3. ^ a b Oñate, Sara (29 November 2022). "Guillermo Lasso firma Decreto que convoca a referéndum". El Comercio (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  4. ^ Valencia, Alexandra (6 February 2023). "Ecuador extradition referendum set for defeat, opposition wins mayoral races". Reuters. Retrieved 7 February 2023.
  5. ^ "Ecuador's President Lasso accepts extradition referendum defeat - Politics News". Al Jazeera. 7 February 2023. Retrieved 7 February 2023.
  6. ^ "Referendum gamble backfires for Ecuador's centre-right leader". Financial Times. 7 February 2023. Retrieved 7 February 2023.
  7. ^ Cañizares, Ana María (7 February 2023). "Guillermo Lasso reconoce la derrota en el referendo y el correísmo gana terreno en Ecuador". CNN en Español (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 February 2023.
  8. ^ "Équateur : signature d'un accord entre le gouvernement et les indigènes, fin des manifestations". Courrier international (in German). 1 July 2022. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  9. ^ a b "Politique. Le président équatorien annonce un référendum sur la sécurité et les institutions". Courrier International (in German). 14 September 2022. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  10. ^ "L'Équateur prévoit un référendum pour réduire le nombre de sièges à l'Assemblée et lutter contre le trafic de drogue". Zonebourse (in French). Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  11. ^ Presse, AFP-Agence France. "Ecuador's President Plans Referendum On Security, Politics And Environment". Barrons. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  12. ^ "Equateur : référendum sur la sécurité, la politique et l'environnement le 5 février". AL24 News (in French). 7 December 2022. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  13. ^ a b "Équateur: début de la campagne pour le référendum sur la Constitution". RFI (in French). 3 January 2023. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  14. ^ "Équateur – Le président Lasso convoque un référendum sur plusieurs questions". 24 heures (in French). Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  15. ^ "Lasso llama a Ecuador a referéndum sobre seguridad, instituciones y ambiente". Swissinfo (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  16. ^ a b c d e f Reyes, Alejandra Cárdenas. "EL PLENO DE LA CORTE CONSTITUCIONAL DEL ECUADOR, EN EJERCICIO DE SUS ATRIBUCIONES CONSTITUCIONALES Y LEGALES, EMITE LA SIGUIENTE". Constitutional Court of Ecuador. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  17. ^ Müller, Beat. "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Auslieferung von Staatsangehörigen ins Ausland". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  18. ^ "Ecuador set for turbulent referendum to reform the constitution". Courthouse News. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  19. ^ Müller, Beat. "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Stärkung der Finanzpolizei". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  20. ^ Müller, Beat. "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Verkleinerung des Kongresses". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  21. ^ Müller, Beat. "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Höhere Anforderungen für Parteien". Direct Democracy (in French). Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  22. ^ a b Salazar Marin, Daniela (9 November 2022). "EL PLENO DE LA CORTE CONSTITUCIONAL DEL ECUADOR, EN EJERCICIO DE SUS ATRIBUCIONES CONSTITUCIONALES Y LEGALES, EMITE LA SIGUIENTE". Constitutional Court of Ecuador. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  23. ^ Müller, Beat. "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Kompetenzübertragung vom Rat für Bürgerbeteiligung an den Kongress". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  24. ^ Müller, Beat (5 February 2023). "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Wahl des Rats für Bürgerbeteiligung durch den Kongress". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  25. ^ Müller, Beat (5 February 2023). "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Wasserschutzgebiete als Naturschutzgebiete". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  26. ^ Müller, Beat (5 February 2023). "Ecuador, 5. Februar 2023 : Entschädigungen für Umweltschutzmassnahmen". Direct Democracy. Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  27. ^ "Encuesta Omnibus Clima Social enero 2023".
  28. ^ "El 'Sí' en la Consulta Popular todavía es mayoritario". La Hora (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 December 2022.
  29. ^ "51% de ciudadanos estarían a favor de la consulta popular, según encuesta". TVC (in Spanish). 19 December 2022. Retrieved 21 December 2022.
  30. ^ "Entre el 67 % y el 86 % tendría el Sí en la consulta popular, según encuesta de Ipsos que divulga el Gobierno en estos días". El Universo (in Spanish). 8 October 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  31. ^ "El plebiscito de Lasso tendría amplío apoyo, según encuestadora". La Hora (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  32. ^ "Respaldo masivo a las 8 preguntas propuestas por Lasso, revela CEDATOS". La Republica. 21 September 2022.
  33. ^ "Referendum gamble backfires for Ecuador's centre-right leader". Financial Times. 7 February 2023. Retrieved 10 February 2023.
  34. ^ "CNE pide investigación sobre 'centro paralelo' de escrutinio en Guayas". Primicias (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 10 February 2023.
  35. ^ "Resultados - Elecciones Seccionales, CPCCS y Referéndum 2023". SNE. Archived from the original on 6 February 2023. Retrieved 10 March 2023.
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