Hispanic and Latino conservatism in the United States

Latino Americans make up an increasing share of the United States (U.S.) electorate. A significant proportion of Hispanic and Latino Americans vote for the Republican Party, and increasing numbers have been elected to office as Republicans.

Opinion pieces that have appeared in magazines and websites such as FiveThirtyEight and The Atlantic have frequently argued that there is no such thing as a "Latino vote", as Hispanics do not tend to vote in a singular bloc.[1][2] Factors such as age, location, income, sex, religion, ethnicity, education, and immigration status can all significantly influence voting factors among Hispanics and Latinos.[3]

History

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The U.S. Census indicates that the Latino population of the U.S. is the fastest growing minority group in the country.[4] More than 12.8% of eligible voters nationwide are Latino.[5]

20th century

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Prior to the 1950's, Hispanic political affiliation swayed back and forth between the two major parties. From the American Civil War to the Great Depression, the majority of American Hispanics, as well as the majority of African-Americans, were Republicans. However, following the Great Depression, more Hispanics began to side with the Democratic party, due to Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal agenda. Many Hispanics were distrustful of Herbert Hoover and the Republican party, who they viewed as responsible for the economic crash.[6]

American Hispanics first began to widely support a Republican candidate, Dwight D. Eisenhower, during the 1952 U.S. presidential election. Hispanic World War II veterans were drawn to support Eisenhower due to his service in the war, as well as the belief that he would be able to end the Korean war. Other non-veteran Hispanic voters were drawn to Eisenhower, due to his promotion of hard work, freedom, prosperity, and religious spirituality. Hispanic conservatives created groups such as "Latinos con Eisenhower" and pinned political buttons on their shirts stating "Me Gusta Ike".[7]

In 1980, Republican Ben Fernandez became the first Hispanic to ever run for President of the United States.[8] Over the next decade, Ronald Reagan viewed Latino social values as closely related to conservative values, as both tended to place an emphasis on religious faith, family, and hard work. Additionally, both groups tended to maintain a strong opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. Reagan often stated that "Hispanics are conservative. They just don’t know it.”[9]

A record 29 million Latinos were eligible to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for 12.8% of all eligible voters, a new high. They made up an estimated 11% of all voters nationwide on Election Day, nearly matching their share of the U.S. eligible voter population (U.S. citizens ages 18 and older).[10]

21st century

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In the 2018 midterm elections, three out of four Latino voters supported a Democratic candidate.[11] However, Republicans are often supported Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American voters,[12] as well as among Latino voters in Florida and Texas.[11] Mexican-Americans, Puerto Ricans, Salvadoran-Americans, Guatemalan-Americans, and Dominican-Americans tend to support the Democratic Party. As the latter groups are far more numerous (Mexican-Americans make up 64% of the Latino population in the United States),[13] the Democratic Party typically receives the majority of the Latino vote.

Although Latinos as a whole, tend to support Democratic candidates, the Democratic Party has lost ground among their voting population since its high-water mark in 2012.[14]

In 2004, according to research by the Thomás Rivera Policy Institute, 58% of Latino voters self-identified as a Democrat, while 22% identified as a Republican and 19% as an Independent.[15]

In 2006, 69% of Latino voters supported Democratic candidates in congressional races, while 30% supported Republican candidates.

In 2008, 67% of Latinos voted for then-Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, while 31% of Latinos voted for then-Republican presidential nominee John McCain.[16]

During the 2010 midterm elections, 31% of eligible Latino voters turned out to vote.[17] 60% of Latinos supported Democratic candidates, while 38% supported Republican candidates.[18]

A 2012 study by the Center for Immigration Studies projected that in November 2012 Latinos would comprise 17.2% of the total U.S. population, 15% of adults, 11.2% of adult citizens, and 8.9% of voters. By comparison, the report found that in 2012, non-Latino whites are expected to be 73.4% of the national vote and non-Latino blacks are expected to be 12.2%. The report noted that by weight, "eight percentage points of the Latino vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Latino white vote." The study also compared the 8.9% Latino share of voters to veterans (12% of the electorate), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18%), seniors 65 and older (19%), married persons (60%), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80%).[19]

In terms of voter turnout, the Center for Immigration Studies projected that 52.7% (±0.6) of eligible Latinos would vote in the 2012 election, an increase from 49.9% in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade's long upward trend. The projected Latino voter participation rate of 52.7% compares to 66.1% for non-Latino whites and 65.2% for non-Latino blacks in 2008.[19]

In 2012, 70% of Latino voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Democratic Party, while 20% of Latino voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Republican Party.[20]

In 2014, out of the 25 million eligble Latino voters, 27%, or 6.8 million, cast ballots ballots.[21]

During the 2016 presidential election, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was supported by 57% of Cuban-American voters in Florida, while Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton received 40% of the vote[whose?].[22]

In 2018, 29.1 million Latinos were eligible to vote. 62% of Latino voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Democratic Party, whereas 27% of Latino voters identified with, or leaned toward, the Republican Party. Latino voters who primarily spoke English were more likely to support Republican candidates (33%), compared to voters who only spoke Spanish (15%).[23] In Florida, 66% of Cuban-Americans supported Republican gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis, while only 33% supported Democrat gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum, a 2 to 1 ratio for Republicans.[22]

According to a 2019 Gallup Poll, 29% of Latinos identify as conservative, and that same number, 29%, voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.[24]

In the 2022 U.S. House Elections, 39% of Hispanic voters backed Republican candidates and 60% backed Democratic candidates.[25] This marks a decline for Democrats from the 2020 election, where Biden won roughly 65% of Hispanic voters to Trump's 33%.

Elections

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Hispanic voters in Presidential elections
Presidential Elections Republican Democrat Ref.
1976 24% 74% [26]
1980 37% 56% [27]
1984 34% 66% [28]
1988 30% 69% [29]
1992 25% 61% [30]
1996 21% 72% [31]
2000 35% 62% [32]
2004 44% 54% [33]
2008 31% 67% [34]
2012 27% 71%
2016 29% 65% [35]
2020 33% 65% [36]
2024 46% 52% [37]

Key issues

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In an October 2010 Pew Hispanic Center report, Latinos ranked education, jobs, and health care as their top three issues of concern, while immigration ranked as the fourth most important issue.[38]

In 2020, the economy, health care, and the COVID-19 pandemic were reported to be the top three most important issues for Latino voters.[39]

Economy

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In 2022, economic issues remain the primary concern for Hispanic voters. In a Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic men stated that Republicans possessed better economic policy, by a margin of 17 points, while Hispanic women stated that Democrats had better economic policy, by a 10-point margin.[40]

Gun Control

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According to a 2022 Pew Research Center poll, 54% of Hispanic Republicans and conservative-leaning independents find it more important to protect gun ownership rights than to control gun ownership. In comparison, 83% of non-Hispanic Republicans hold the same belief.[41]

Gender-neutral terminology

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The use of the gender-neutral term "Latinx" is highly unpopular among Hispanic and Latino voters, with over 90% disliking the term.[42] The term has been used by prominent Democrat politicians such as Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; who have been widely mocked by many Republicans, Hispanics, and Latinos for its use.[43][44][45][46]

A 2021 poll found that 30% of Hispanic voters are less likely to vote for a politician who uses the term "Latinx". 68% of Hispanic voters prefer the term "Hispanic", while 21% of voters prefer the term "Latino". By comparison, only 2% of Hispanic voters embrace the term "Latinx". Furthermore, 40% of American Hispanics state that the term "Latinx" bothers or offends them.[47][48]

Immigration

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Hispanic voters who are immigrants or the children of immigrants are more likely to vote for the Democratic Party, while Hispanic voters whose ancestors have lived in the United States for multiple generations are more likely to be split or vote for the Republican Party.[1][2]

The Hispanic vote is sometimes associated with immigration issues such as immigration reform, immigration enforcement, and amnesty for undocumented immigrants. However, immigration could be an issue no more important than unemployment or the economy for many Hispanic American citizens.[49]

Timeline of events

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Susana Martinez
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Brian Sandoval
Alberto Gonzales
Carlos Gutierrez
Mel Martínez
Maria Salazar
Carlos Gimenez
Mike Garcia
Romualdo Pacheco
Octaviano Larrazolo

This is a timeline of significant events in Latino history which have shaped the conservative movement in the United States.

1860s
1870s
1880s
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s

Politicians

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Alaska

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Arizona

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Arkansas

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California

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Colorado

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Connecticut

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Delaware

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Florida

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Georgia

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Hawaii

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Illinois

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Indiana

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Iowa

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Kansas

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Kentucky

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Louisiana

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Maryland

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Massachusetts

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Michigan

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Minnesota

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Mississippi

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  • Shane Aguirre – Mississippi State representative (2016–present)

Missouri

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Nebraska

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Nevada

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New Hampshire

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New Jersey

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New Mexico

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New York

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Ohio

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Oklahoma

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Oregon

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Rhode Island

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Tennessee

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Texas

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Utah

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Virginia

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Washington

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West Virginia

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Wisconsin

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Wyoming

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Judges

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Athletes and entertainers

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Law

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Science

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Columnists, authors and journalists

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Education and Business

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Activists

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See also

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Further reading

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  • Cadava, Geraldo. (2020). The Hispanic Republican: The Shaping of an American Political Identity, from Nixon to Trump. Ecco Press. ISBN 978-0062946348
  • Flavio R Hickel, Jr., Rudy Alamillo, Kassra A R Oskooii, Loren Collingwood. (2021). "The Role of Identity Prioritization: Why Some Latinx Support Restrictionist Immigration Policies and Candidates." Public Opinion Quarterly.
  • Jacoby, Tamar. (2012). "How Romney could win over Latinos." Los Angeles Times.

References

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  1. ^ a b Rakich, Nathaniel; Thomson-DeVeaux, Amelia (22 September 2022). "There's No Such Thing As The 'Latino Vote'". FiveThirtyEight.
  2. ^ a b Cadava, Geraldo L. (14 February 2022). "There's No Such Thing as 'the Latino Vote'". The Atlantic.
  3. ^ Hugo Lopez, Mark; Noe-Bustamante, Luis (September 25, 2024). "In Tight U.S. Presidential Race, Latino Voters' Preferences Mirror 2020". Pew Research Center.
  4. ^ "US Census Press Releases". United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on 2008-05-06. Retrieved 2008-05-16.
  5. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  6. ^ Cadava, Geraldo (2020). The Hispanic Republican: The Shaping of an American Political Identity, from Nixon to Trump. Ecco Press. p. 7.
  7. ^ Cadava, pp. 5-6
  8. ^ Cable, Robert (15 May 2020). "The Hispanic Republican". Stanford Humanities Center.
  9. ^ Aguilar, Alfonso (5 May 2010). "On Latinos, listen to the Gipper". Politico.
  10. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  11. ^ a b "Latinos and the political parties". Pew Research. 11 October 2016.
  12. ^ "The Cuban Paradox". Harvard University.
  13. ^ "Detailed Hispanic Origin: 2006" (PDF). Pew Hispanic Center. Retrieved 2008-05-16.
  14. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  15. ^ de la Garza, Rodolfo O.; Cortina, Jeronimo (March 2007). "Are Latinos Republicans But Just Don't Know It?: The Latino Vote in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections". American Politics Research. 35 (2): 202–223. doi:10.1177/1532673X06294885. ISSN 1532-673X. S2CID 154127676.
  16. ^ Lopez, Mark Hung (November 5, 2008). "The Hispanic Vote in the 2008 Election". Pew Hispanic Center. Pew Research Center.
  17. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  18. ^ Lopez, Mark Hugo (November 3, 2010). "The Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections". Pew Hispanic Center. Pew Research Center.
  19. ^ a b Steven A. Camarota and Karen Zeigler, "Projecting the 2012 Hispanic Vote," Center for Immigration Studies, August 2012. Available at: http://cis.org/projecting-2012-hispanic-vote-nationally-battleground-states
  20. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  21. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  22. ^ a b "Republicans won the Florida Election but the Cuban-American Voters are Beginning to Vote Democrat". www.necn.com/news. NECN. 27 November 2018. Retrieved March 13, 2019.
  23. ^ "Hispanic voters and the 2018 midterm elections". Pew Research. 25 October 2018.
  24. ^ Parker, Star (13 March 2019). "Can Republicans Get Elected in Nonwhite America?". GOPUSA. Retrieved March 13, 2019.
  25. ^ "Exit polls for Midterm Election Results 2022". CNN. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 17, 2022.
  26. ^ CBS News/New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls, as reported in The New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28, and in further analysis. The 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.
  27. ^ "How Groups Voted in 1980". ropercenter.cornell.edu. Retrieved February 1, 2018.
  28. ^ "How Groups Voted in 1984". ropercenter.cornell.edu. Retrieved February 1, 2018.
  29. ^ "How Groups Voted in 1988". ropercenter.cornell.edu. Retrieved February 1, 2018.
  30. ^ Voter News Service exit poll, reported in The New York Times, November 10, 1996, 28.
  31. ^ "1996 Presidential Exit Polls Results". CNN.
  32. ^ "How Groups Voted in 2000". ropercenter.cornell.edu. Archived from the original on February 13, 2018. Retrieved February 1, 2018.
  33. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004". CNN. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  34. ^ "National Exit Poll". CNN. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  35. ^ "Exit polls". CNN. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  36. ^ Andre, Michael; et al. (2020-11-03). "National Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-12-05.
  37. ^ "Election 2024: Exit polls". CNN. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  38. ^ Statistics were obtained from CNN’s Election 2010 website and are based on the Edison Research’s national and state exit poll surveys of voters as reported on December 30, 2010.
  39. ^ Krogstad, Jens Manuel; Lopez, Mark Hugo (11 September 2020). "Hispanic voters say economy, health care and COVID-19 are top issues in 2020 presidential election". Pew Research.
  40. ^ Zitner, Aaron (8 December 2021). "Hispanic Voters Now Evenly Split Between Parties, WSJ Poll Finds". The Wall Street Journal.
  41. ^ Krogstad, Jens Manuel (7 November 2022). "Latino Republicans hold distinct views on guns and immigration, highlighting their shaky ties to GOP". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2023-04-01.
  42. ^ Tallet, Olivia P. (26 January 2021). "Over 90% of Hispanics and Latinos don't like to be called Latinx". Houston Chronicle.
  43. ^ Keene, Houston (25 June 2021). "Biden criticized for using woke term 'Latinx' in comments about 'equity' in COVID-19 vaccinations". Fox News.
  44. ^ Lee, Michael (6 June 2022). "AOC accuses people of creating drama over the word 'Latinx' despite overwhelming opposition to the term". Fox News.
  45. ^ Nuño-Pérez, Stephen; Aviles, Gwen (7 March 2019). "Is 'Latinx' elitist? Some push back at the word's growing use". NBC News.
  46. ^ Hochman, Nate (6 December 2021). "Politico Poll: 40 Percent of Hispanics Find 'Latinx' Offensive". National Review.
  47. ^ Sesin, Carmen (6 December 2021). "'Latinx' can be 'counterproductive' among Hispanic voters, poll finds". NBC News.
  48. ^ Torregrosa, Luisita Lopez (14 December 2021). "Many Latinos say 'Latinx' offends or bothers them. Here's why". NBC News.
  49. ^ Gutierrez, Jessica Marie (March 12, 2012). "Is Respect A Major Issue for Latinos: Election 2012 Coverage on the Hispanic Vote".
  50. ^ "Our Campaigns - Candidate - Fred Aguiar".
  51. ^ "Carlos Gonzalez (New Hampshire)".
  52. ^ https://ballotpedia.org/Larry_Gonzales
  53. ^ a b c d e Moreno, Carolina (27 August 2012). "LOOK: Are These Latino Celebs Republicans?". Huffington Post.
  54. ^ Moreno, Carolina (27 August 2012). "LOOK: Are These Latino Celebs Republicans?". Huffington Post.
  55. ^ "CESAR ROMERO, actor, singer, dancer, film, radio and TV personality. (Cuban descendant) ** Cesar Romero, actor, cantante, bailarín, personalidad de la radio, cine y TV. (Descendencia cubana) | the History, Culture and Legacy of the People of Cuba".
  56. ^ "Republican Nominee Bush Works Hard for Latino Vote". ABC News. 2006-01-06.
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