Opinion polling for the 2010 Australian federal election

Main article: 2010 Australian federal election

This article provides a list of federal opinion polls that were conducted between the 2007 election and 2010 election.

JWS poll of 28,000

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A JWS Research "mega-poll", published by Fairfax, polled an Australian record 22,000 voters in 54 marginal seats and a further 6,000 in safe seats late in the campaign. It revealed a national two-party preferred vote for Labor of 51.6 percent. Losses in Queensland and New South Wales were offset by the gains of Dunkley, McEwen (both 57 percent), and Cowper and Boothby (both 54 percent), with a total of 79 Labor, 68 coalition, 3 independent.[1][2]

Newspoll

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Newspoll federal polling, published in The Australian, consists of voting intention, better prime minister and leader satisfaction-dissatisfaction ratings, and is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.

Voting intention

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(<) – since July 2010, Newspoll has not provided a separate Liberal and National primary vote, therefore from 23–25 July 2010 the Liberal column displays the coalition primary vote.

House of Representatives opinion polling
Date Political parties Two-party-preferred
ALP Lib Nat Grn Oth ALP Lib/Nat
17–19 Aug 2010 36.2% 43.4% < 13.9% 6.5% 50.2% 49.8%
13–15 Aug 2010 38% 41% < 14% 7% 52% 48%
6–8 Aug 2010 38% 42% < 13% 7% 52% 48%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 37% 44% < 12% 7% 50% 50%
23–25 Jul 2010 40% 42% < 12% 6% 52% 48%
16–18 Jul 2010 42% 34% 4% 12% 8% 55% 45%
25–27 Jun 2010 42% 37% 3% 10% 8% 53% 47%
24 June 2010 Julia Gillard is elected Prime Minister in Labor leadership spill
18–20 Jun 2010 35% 36% 4% 15% 10% 52% 48%
28–30 May 2010 35% 38% 3% 16% 8% 51% 49%
14–16 May 2010 37% 40% 3% 12% 8% 50% 50%
30 Apr-2 May 2010 35% 38% 5% 10% 12% 49% 51%
16–18 Apr 2010 43% 37% 3% 10% 7% 54% 46%
26–28 Mar 2010 43% 35% 3% 12% 7% 56% 44%
12–14 Mar 2010 39% 37% 4% 11% 9% 52% 48%
26–28 Feb 2010 40% 37% 4% 9% 10% 52% 48%
12–14 Feb 2010 39% 36% 4% 12% 9% 53% 47%
29–31 Jan 2010 40% 37% 4% 12% 7% 52% 48%
15–17 Jan 2010 40% 34% 4% 12% 10% 54% 46%
4–6 Dec 2009 43% 34% 4% 11% 8% 56% 44%
27–29 Nov 2009 43% 30% 5% 12% 10% 57% 43%
13–15 Nov 2009 43% 33% 4% 11% 9% 56% 44%
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 41% 36% 5% 10% 8% 52% 48%
16–18 Oct 2009 48% 30% 4% 10% 8% 59% 41%
2 – 4 Oct 2009[3] 46% 31% 4% 10% 9% 58% 42%
18–20 Sep 2009 43% 33% 5% 11% 8% 55% 45%
4–6 Sep 2009 44% 35% 4% 10% 7% 55% 45%
21–23 Aug 2009 44% 34% 4% 9% 9% 55% 45%
7–9 Aug 2009 45% 33% 4% 10% 8% 57% 43%
24–26 Jul 2009 46% 34% 4% 9% 7% 57% 43%
10–12 Jul 2009 43% 34% 5% 11% 7% 55% 45%
26–28 Jun 2009 44% 32% 5% 10% 9% 56% 44%
12–14 Jun 2009 41% 36% 4% 11% 8% 53% 47%
29–31 May 2009 43% 35% 3% 10% 9% 55% 45%
15–17 May 2009 46% 34% 3% 9% 8% 56% 44%
1–3 May 2009 42% 35% 3% 11% 9% 55% 45%
17–19 Apr 2009 47% 33% 4% 9% 7% 58% 42%
3–5 Apr 2009 47% 32% 4% 9% 8% 58% 42%
20–22 Mar 2009 45% 32% 5% 8% 10% 56% 44%
7–9 Mar 2009 44% 32% 4% 10% 10% 56% 44%
20–22 Feb 2009 47% 33% 3% 9% 8% 58% 42%
6–8 Feb 2009 48% 32% 4% 8% 8% 58% 42%
16–18 Jan 2009 43% 35% 4% 10% 8% 54% 46%
5–7 Dec 2008 48% 32% 3% 10% 7% 59% 41%
21–23 Nov 2008 42% 33% 5% 11% 9% 55% 45%
7–9 Nov 2008 44% 35% 3% 9% 9% 55% 45%
24–26 Oct 2008 44% 36% 3% 9% 8% 54% 46%
10–12 Oct 2008 41% 34% 4% 13% 8% 55% 45%
19–21 Sep 2008 42% 34% 4% 10% 10% 55% 45%
5–7 Sep 2008 44% 34% 3% 11% 8% 56% 44%
22–24 Aug 2008 45% 34% 4% 8% 9% 56% 44%
8–10 Aug 2008 47% 33% 5% 9% 6% 57% 43%
25–27 Jul 2008 47% 33% 4% 10% 6% 57% 43%
11–13 Jul 2008 43% 33% 5% 11% 8% 55% 45%
27–29 Jun 2008 44% 34% 5% 10% 7% 55% 45%
13–15 Jun 2008 46% 29% 4% 12% 9% 59% 41%
30 May – 1 Jun 2008 46% 33% 4% 10% 7% 57% 43%
16–18 May 2008 47% 34% 3% 9% 7% 57% 43%
2–4 May 2008 47% 33% 4% 9% 7% 57% 43%
18–20 Apr 2008 51% 30% 4% 9% 6% 61% 39%
4–6 Apr 2008 48% 32% 3% 10% 7% 59% 41%
14–16 Mar 2008 47% 31% 4% 11% 7% 59% 41%
29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 51% 28% 3% 10% 8% 63% 37%
15–17 Feb 2008 46% 33% 3% 10% 8% 57% 43%
18–20 Jan 2008 46% 32% 3% 12% 7% 58% 42%
2007 election 43.4% 36.6% 5.5% 7.8% 6.7% 52.7% 47.3%
20–22 Nov 2007 44% 39% 4% 7% 6% 52% 48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Leader ratings

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Better Prime Minister^
Date Labor
Gillard 		Liberal
Abbott
17–19 Aug 2010 50% 37%
13–15 Aug 2010 50% 35%
6–8 Aug 2010 49% 34%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 50% 35%
23–25 Jul 2010 50% 34%
16–18 Jul 2010 57% 27%
25–27 Jun 2010 53% 29%
Rudd Abbott
18–20 Jun 2010 46% 37%
28–30 May 2010 49% 33%
14–16 May 2010 49% 33%
30 Apr – 2 May 2010 50% 32%
16–18 Apr 2010 56% 29%
26–28 Mar 2010 59% 27%
12–14 Mar 2010 55% 30%
26–28 Feb 2010 55% 30%
12–14 Feb 2010 55% 27%
29–31 Jan 2010 58% 26%
15–17 Jan 2010 57% 25%
4–6 Dec 2009 60% 23%
Rudd Turnbull
27–29 Nov 2009 65% 14%
13–15 Nov 2009 63% 22%
30 Oct-1 Nov 2009 63% 19%
16–18 Oct 2009 65% 19%
2-4 Oct 2009[3] 67% 18%
18–20 Sep 2009 65% 17%
4–6 Sep 2009 67% 19%
21–23 Aug 2009 66% 19%
7–9 Aug 2009 65% 17%
24–26 Jul 2009 66% 16%
10–12 Jul 2009 64% 19%
26–28 Jun 2009 65% 18%
12–14 Jun 2009 57% 25%
29–31 May 2009 57% 24%
15–17 May 2009 58% 24%
1–3 May 2009 64% 19%
17–19 Apr 2009 67% 19%
3–5 Apr 2009 67% 18%
20–22 Mar 2009 65% 20%
7–9 Mar 2009 61% 21%
20–22 Feb 2009 64% 20%
6–8 Feb 2009 62% 20%
16–18 Jan 2009 60% 22%
5–7 Dec 2008 66% 19%
21–23 Nov 2008 63% 21%
7–9 Nov 2008 62% 22%
24–26 Oct 2008 59% 25%
10–12 Oct 2008 54% 26%
19–21 Sep 2008 54% 24%
Rudd Nelson
5–7 Sep 2008 62% 16%
22–24 Aug 2008 65% 14%
8–10 Aug 2008 68% 12%
25–27 Jul 2008 66% 14%
11–13 Jul 2008 65% 14%
27–29 Jun 2008 64% 15%
13–15 Jun 2008 68% 13%
30 May – 1 Jun 2008 66% 17%
16–18 May 2008 70% 12%
2–4 May 2008 72% 9%
18–20 Apr 2008 71% 10%
4–6 Apr 2008 73% 9%
14–16 Mar 2008 70% 10%
29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 73% 7%
15–17 Feb 2008 70% 9%
18–20 Jan 2008 68% 11%
30 Nov – 2 Dec 2007 61% 14%
Rudd Howard
20–22 Nov 2007 47% 44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted".
Satisfaction^
Gillard Abbott
Date Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
17–19 Aug 2010 44% 43% 42% 50%
13–15 Aug 2010 44% 38% 43% 46%
6–8 Aug 2010 43% 41% 41% 49%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 42% 40% 44% 46%
23–25 Jul 2010 41% 37% 40% 46%
16–18 Jul 2010 48% 29% 36% 51%
25–27 Jun 2010 N/A (new) N/A (new) 42% 41%
Rudd Abbott
18–20 Jun 2010 36% 55% 38% 49%
28–30 May 2010 36% 54% 37% 49%
14–16 May 2010 39% 51% 42% 45%
30 Apr – 2 May 2010 39% 50% 45% 43%
16–18 Apr 2010 50% 41% 46% 40%
26–28 Mar 2010 51% 39% 44% 43%
12–14 Mar 2010 48% 41% 47% 38%
26–28 Feb 2010 51% 40% 48% 38%
12–14 Feb 2010 50% 40% 44% 37%
29–31 Jan 2010 50% 38% 41% 39%
15–17 Jan 2010 52% 34% 40% 35%
4–6 Dec 2009 58% 32% N/A (new) N/A (new)
Rudd Turnbull
27–29 Nov 2009 56% 34% 36% 50%
13–15 Nov 2009 56% 34% 34% 50%
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 59% 32% 32% 51%
16–18 Oct 2009 63% 28% 32% 54%
28 Sep – 1 Oct 2009 67% 21% 33% 48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted".

Roy Morgan

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The Roy Morgan poll consists of two different sampling. There is a face to face interview and a phone interview to sample voting intention, which is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide.

House of Representatives - face to face interview
Political parties Two-party-preferred
ALP Lib Nat Grn Oth ALP Lib/Nat
7–8 Aug 2010 43% 33.5% 3.5% 15.5% 2% 57.5% 42.5%
31 July – 1 Aug 2010 44% 39% 2% 10% 4% 53% 47%
24–25 July 2010 43.5% 35% 2% 11.5% 6.5% 55.5% 44.5%
17–18 July 2010 44.5% 35% 4.5% 10.5% 4% 56% 44%
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan.

References

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  1. ^ ALP leads coalition in biggest poll yet: SMH 18 August 2010
  2. ^ Poll Bludger JWS p. 1 - Poll Bludger JWS p. 2
  3. ^ a b "Malcolm Turnbull's economic, ETS woes slash voter support for Liberals". The Australian. Archived from the original on 11 October 2009.

See also

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