Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Electoral polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats We Are Family ĽSNS Others Lead
Slovakia ZĽ KÚ
AKO[1] 16–19 Dec 2024 1,000 20.3 22.8 13.9 6.2 0.2 – 7.3 6.6 4.6 5.4 3.2 4.3 3.8 0.3 1.1 2.5
NMS[2] 4–9 Dec 2024 1,000 19.1 24.8 10.7 6.5 2.9 0.7 5.5 4.8 2.9 9.5 3.2 3.9 3.4 1.4 0.4 5.7
Focus[3] 2–8 Dec 2024 1,022 20.8 21.5 13.8 5.2 – – 6.9 6.1 3.7 8.1 5.6 4.0 2.2 – – 0.7
AKO[4] 12–20 Nov 2024 1,000 20.7 21.2 14.7 6.6 – 0.1 6.7 6.9 4.7 5.9 3.7 4.1 3.6 0.4 0.7 0.5
Focus[5] 6–13 Nov 2024 1,018 21.9 22.6 13.3 3.6 – – 6.2 6.7 3.6 8.6 4.8 4.6 3.3 – 0.8 0.7
NMS[6] 7–11 Nov 2024 1,000 19.1 25.1 10.8 4.7 1.0 0.3 6.4 6.0 3.3 8.7 3.7 4.4 4.3 1.0 0.5 6.0
Ipsos[7] 27 Oct–1 Nov 2024 1,003 21.9 22.6 12.8 3.6 1.6 0.8 6.9 6.2 2.4 7.7 4.0 4.4 3.0 1.2 0.6 0.7
AKO[8] 8–17 Oct 2024 1,000 21.3 21.3 15.0 5.9 6.2 6.5 4.8 6.8 3.4 4.7 2.6 0.6 0.9 Tie
NMS[9] 2–7 Oct 2024 1,000 20.5 24.4 12.0 5.2 0.2 6.9 6.2 2.9 7.4 3.6 5.1 3.9 1.3 0.7 3.9
Focus[10] 17–26 Sep 2024 1,017 23.3 22.1 12.8 4.1 6.0 5.6 4.7 7.9 5.2 5.0 3.2 – 0.1 1.2
AKO[11] 10–16 Sep 2024 1,000 22.8 22.4 15.1 3.9 6.8 6.4 4.9 5.4 3.7 4.9 2.6 – 0.9 0.4
Ipsos[12] 6–10 Sep 2024 1,025 25.5 21.6 11.9 4.9 6.0 7.0 3.4 6.3 4.9 5.1 2.0 – – 3.9
NMS[13] 5–9 Sep 2024 1,001 23.9 24.5 12.6 3.9 0.6 6.2 6.1 3.5 6.0 3.4 3.3 3.9 1.2 – 0.6
NMS[14] 8–12 Aug 2024 1,014 22.4 23.1 14.3 4.4 0.8 6.2 5.8 3.2 7.0 3.2 4.5 3.2 1.1 – 0.7
AKO[15] 6–12 Aug 2024 1,000 23.6 22.0 15.9 3.6 6.9 6.2 4.9 5.2 3.4 4.5 2.7 0.2 0.9 1.6
Focus[16] 9–14 Jul 2024 1,013 25.7 21.3 11.3 4.4 7.3 7.2 3.4 6.5 4.5 4.7 2.7 – 1.0 4.4
AKO[17] 9–15 Jul 2024 1,000 23.5 21.7 15.5 3.5 7.4 5.6 5.0 5.6 4.3 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.7 1.8
NMS[18] 4–8 Jul 2024 1,020 22.5 22.6 13.1 4.2 1.2 6.0 5.1 4.1 7.0 3.4 4.6 3.7 1.5 1.2 0.1
Ipsos[19] 26 Jun–1 Jul 2024 1,017 25.2 22.3 13.5 4.1 6.3 6.1 3.1 6.8 4.3 4.7 1.8 0.9 0.8 2.9
AKO[20] 11–18 Jun 2024 1,000 23.8 22.8 15.2 4.7 6.8 5.3 5.1 6.0 3.4 4.1 2.1 – 0.8 1.0
Focus[21] 5–12 Jun 2024 1,025 24.2 21.6 14.5 4.1 6.6 6.1 4.7 7.3 5.2 3.6 1.8 – – 2.6
European election 8 Jun 2024 1,476,968 24.77 27.82 7.18 1.99 0.63 7.15 4.92 1.90 12.53 3.80 4.69 – 0.48 2.06 3.05
NMS[22] 30 May–3 Jun 2024 1,020 22.4 23.7 15.8 3.4 0.9 5.6 5.6 4.5 7.4 3.5 2.9 3.0 0.8 – 1.3
Ipsos[23] 14–21 May 2024 743 25.0 21.0 14.0 4.9 7.1 8.0 3.5 5.1 4.1 3.4 2.9 – – 4.0
AKO[24] 7–14 May 2024 1,000 21.8 20.8 17.2 4.7 7.3 6.7 5.2 5.1 3.9 3.6 3.1 – 0.6 1.0
NMS[25] 9–13 May 2024 1,020 20.9 23.1 14.9 5.5 0.7 5.4 6.6 3.7 7.9 3.5 3.4 3.2 0.6 – 2.2
Focus[26] 17–24 Apr 2024 1,017 21.1 19.7 18.0 5.2 6.9 7.0 5.3 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.3 0.9 0.1 1.4
AKO[27] 9–16 Apr 2024 1,000 21.2 20.1 16.5 5.2 7.9 6.5 5.1 4.9 4.9 3.3 2.3 0.8 1.3 1.1
Focus[28] 28 Mar–4 Apr 2024 1,015 21.6 20.1 17.9 6.4 6.3 5.4 5.1 4.6 5.0 3.7 1.8 1.9 – 1.5
Ipsos[29] 16–19 Mar 2024 1,009 21.6 20.2 16.3 5.8 – – 6.2 6.7 4.1 5.0 4.6 3.8 3.0 – – 1.4
AKO[30] 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 22.1 21.0 15.9 5.6 8.1 6.7 5.1 3.9 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.5 1.1
Ipsos[31] 12–16 Mar 2024 1,038 23.4 20.8 17.1 5.6 – – 6.2 6.3 5.3 4.2 3.6 2.6 3.1 – – 2.6
Ipsos[32] 16–21 Feb 2024 1,028 22.7 21.3 16.5 5.8 – – 6.7 6.4 4.2 5.2 3.4 2.4 3.2 1.6 0.5 1.4
Focus[33] 14–21 Feb 2024 1,025 21.1 18.9 17.2 5.9 6.1 6.2 5.8 4.2 5.4 3.5 2.6 2.7 0.4 2.2
NMS[34] 14–18 Feb 2024 1,022 21.0 22.0 16.9 6.0 7.2 5.7 4.2 5.8 3.3 2.5 3.6 1.6 0.2 1.0
AKO[35] 5–12 Feb 2024 1,000 24.0 22.6 14.5 6.0 8.2 6.2 5.3 3.7 4.6 1.5 2.8 0.2 0.4 1.4
Ipsos[36] 22–25 Jan 2024 1,022 24.5 20.6 15.4 5.3 6.6 6.6 4.3 5.1 4.0 3.0 2.4 1.6 0.5 3.9
Focus[37] 16–23 Jan 2024 1,015 21.6 19.4 17.9 6.5 6.2 5.5 5.7 4.8 4.6 3.5 2.4 1.7 0.2 2.2
AKO[38] 11–16 Jan 2024 1,048 22.1 19.9 14.3 7.0 8.7 6.0 5.4 5.3 4.3 3.2 2.4 1.0 0.4 2.2
NMS[39] 10–14 Jan 2024 1,030 22.3 21.1 14.7 6.0 6.9 6.9 4.5 6.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 0.5 0.7 1.2
Ipsos[40] 13–18 Dec 2023 1,048 24.1 19.4 15.7 5.9 6.4 7.1 4.8 5.2 4.0 3.6 2.7 0.8 0.5 4.7
AKO[41] 11–13 Dec 2023 1,000 24.2 21.4 14.6 6.8 7.3 6.4 5.3 5.4 3.6 2.0 2.3 0.2 – 2.8
Focus[42] 15–22 Nov 2023 1,015 23.8 17.9 14.6 6.4 7.5 6.4 5.8 5.3 5.0 2.9 2.8 1.2 0.4 5.9
AKO[43] 7–14 Nov 2023 1,000 24.0 20.1 15.4 6.6 6.9 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.4 2.3 2.7 0.3 0.1 3.9
Ipsos[44] 2–7 Nov 2023 1,021 24.0 19.1 15.1 7.0 5.8 6.3 5.1 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.1 1.0 4.9
2023 election 30 Sep 2023 2,967,896 22.95 17.96 14.70 8.90 6.82 6.32 5.63 4.75 4.39 2.93 2.21 0.84 1.60 4.99

Seat projections

[edit]
Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republic Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats Lead Gov. Opp.
AKO[1] 16–19 Dec 2024 1,000 37 42 25 11 13 12 0 10 0 0 5 62 88
NMS[2] 4–9 Dec 2024 1,000 37 49 21 13 11 0 0 19 0 0 12 58 92
Focus[3] 2–8 Dec 2024 1,022 36 37 23 9 12 10 0 14 9 0 1 59 91
AKO[4] 12–20 Nov 2024 1,000 37 39 27 12 12 12 0 11 0 0 2 64 86
Focus[5] 6–13 Nov 2024 1,018 41 43 25 0 12 13 0 16 0 0 2 66 84
NMS[6] 7–11 Nov 2024 1,000 38 50 21 0 12 12 0 17 0 0 12 59 91
Ipsos[7] 27 Oct–1 Nov 2024 1,003 42 43 25 0 13 12 0 15 0 0 1 67 83
AKO[8] 8–17 Oct 2024 1,000 41 41 29 0 12 13 0 14 0 0 0 70 80
NMS[9] 2–7 Oct 2024 1,000 35 42 20 9 12 10 0 13 0 9 7 55 95
37 45 22 0 13 11 0 13 0 9 8 59 91
Focus[10] 17–26 Sep 2024 1,017 40 38 22 0 10 10 0 13 9 8 2 62 88
AKO[11] 10–16 Sep 2024 1,000 43 43 29 0 13 12 0 10 0 0 0 72 78
Ipsos[12] 6–10 Sep 2024 1,025 46 39 21 0 11 13 0 11 0 9 7 67 83
NMS[13] 5–9 Sep 2024 1,001 45 46 24 0 12 12 0 11 0 0 1 69 81
AKO[15] 6–12 Aug 2024 1,000 44 41 30 0 13 12 0 10 0 0 3 74 76
AKO[17] 9–15 Jul 2024 1,000 42 39 27 0 13 10 9 10 0 0 3 78 72
Ipsos[19] 26 Jun–1 Jul 2024 1,017 47 42 25 0 12 11 0 13 0 0 5 72 78
AKO[20] 11–18 Jun 2024 1,000 42 40 27 0 12 9 9 11 0 0 2 78 72
Focus[21] 5–12 Jun 2024 1,025 43 38 25 0 11 11 0 13 9 0 5 68 82
AKO[24] 7–14 May 2024 1,000 39 37 31 0 13 12 9 9 0 0 2 79 71
Focus[26] 17–24 Apr 2024 1,017 38 36 33 0 12 12 9 10 0 0 2 80 70
AKO[27] 9–16 Apr 2024 1,000 41 39 32 0 15 13 10 0 0 0 2 83 67
Focus[28] 28 Mar–4 Apr 2024 1,015 40 37 33 0 12 10 9 0 9 0 3 82 68
AKO[30] 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 42 40 30 0 15 13 10 0 0 0 2 82 68
Ipsos[31] 12–16 Mar 2024 1,038 42 37 30 10 11 11 0 9 0 0 5 72 78
Ipsos[32] 16–21 Feb 2024 1,028 41 38 29 10 12 11 0 9 0 0 3 70 80
Focus[33] 14–21 Feb 2024 1,025 39 35 32 0 11 12 11 0 10 0 4 82 68
AKO[35] 5–12 Feb 2024 1,000 45 42 27 0 15 11 10 0 0 0 5 82 68
Focus[37] 16–23 Jan 2024 1,015 43 38 35 0 12 11 11 0 0 0 5 89 61
AKO[38] 11–16 Jan 2024 1,048 37 34 24 12 15 10 9 9 0 0 5 70 80
Ipsos[40] 13–18 Dec 2023 1,048 47 37 30 0 12 14 0 10 0 0 10 77 73
AKO[41] 11–13 Dec 2023 1,000 43 38 26 0 13 11 9 10 0 0 5 78 72
Focus[42] 15–22 Nov 2023 1,015 42 31 25 0 13 11 10 9 9 0 11 77 73
AKO[43] 7–14 Nov 2023 1,000 47 39 30 0 13 11 10 0 0 0 8 87 63
2023 election 30 Sep 2023 2,967,896 42 32 27 16 12 11 10 0 0 0 10 79 71

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "PS by zostavilo vládu len s Hlasom, alebo Matovičom". Sme (in Slovak). 22 December 2024.
  2. ^ a b "Volebný model: Lídrom ostáva PS, zmeny sa dejú na 5% hranici". NMS Global (in Slovak). 11 December 2024.
  3. ^ a b "Na trojkoalíciu zabudnite, zostaviť vládu by bolo zložité. Rast Matoviča potvrdil ďalší prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 21 December 2024.
  4. ^ a b "Voľby by v druhej polovici novembra vyhralo PS pred Smerom, ukazuje ďalší prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 25 November 2024.
  5. ^ a b "Popularita Smeru klesá, PS ho predbehlo aj v ďalšom prieskume". Sme (in Slovak). 18 November 2024.
  6. ^ a b "Volebný model november 2024: PS rastie, Smer klesá. Napriek tomu by progresívci vyskladali vládu len ťažko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 13 November 2024.
  7. ^ a b "Progresívne Slovensko predbehlo Smer v ďalšom prieskume, na úkor Fica rastie Republika". Denník N (in Slovak). 5 November 2024.
  8. ^ a b "Aj druhý októbrový prieskum naznačuje pokles Smeru. Fico prispôsobuje taktiku". Sme (in Slovak). 21 October 2024.
  9. ^ a b "Volebný model – október 2024: Konsolidačný balíček mení preferencie voličov". NMS Global (in Slovak). 9 October 2024.
  10. ^ a b "Šimečka dýcha Ficovi na krk. Rozdiel medzi Smerom a PS sa naďalej zmenšuje". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 30 September 2024.
  11. ^ a b "Prieskum AKO: Poradie strán sa nezmenilo, voľby by vyhral Smer pred PS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 September 2024.
  12. ^ a b "Smer by s 25 percentami vyhral voľby aj po lete, PS tesne zaostáva. Hlas klesá, Demokrati by boli v parlamente". Denník N (in Slovak). 12 September 2024.
  13. ^ a b "Prieskum NMS: PS a Smer si upevnili pozície lídrov". Sme (in Slovak). 11 September 2024.
  14. ^ "Prieskum: Progresívne Slovensko a Smer zvádzajú súboj o prvé miesto". Sme (in Slovak). 21 August 2024.
  15. ^ a b "Voľby by vyhral Smer pred progresívcami, SNS by skončila mimo parlamentu". Sme (in Slovak). 19 August 2024.
  16. ^ "Zostávam v politike, oznámil Korčok. Angažovať sa chce v parlamentných voľbách, no nehovorí za koho". Denník N (in Slovak). 3 August 2024.
  17. ^ a b "Prieskum: Oproti júnu sa preferencie zmenili minimálne, do parlamentu by prešli Republika aj SNS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 July 2024.
  18. ^ "Stranícky volebný model: O prvenstvo bojuje PS a Smer". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 July 2024. Retrieved 17 July 2024.
  19. ^ a b "Smer stále na čele, Danka by v parlamente vystriedala Republika. Demokrati tesne pod piatimi percentami". Denník N (in Slovak). 2 July 2024. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  20. ^ a b "Prieskum: Smer a Progresívne Slovensko výrazne posilnili, delí ich len percento". Sme (in Slovak). 22 June 2024. Retrieved 22 June 2024.
  21. ^ a b "Prieskum: Hlas výrazne stratil, Smer posilnil, rástla aj Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  22. ^ "Stranícky volebný model: Vo voľbách by zvíťazilo Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  23. ^ "Prieskum Ipsosu: Eurovoľby by nevyhralo PS, ale Smer, Republika má deväť percent". Denník N (in Slovak). 22 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  24. ^ a b "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by v máji vyhral Smer pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 27 May 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  25. ^ "Stranícky volebný model: Najvyššiu podporu má Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  26. ^ a b "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  27. ^ a b "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  28. ^ a b "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  29. ^ "Smer mierne klesol, Dankova SNS je na štyroch percentách". Denník N (in Slovak). 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  30. ^ a b "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  31. ^ a b "Smer má 23 percent, protesty ním neotriasli. PS mierne zaostáva, darí sa aj Hlasu". Denník N (in Slovak). 18 March 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  32. ^ a b "PS sa doťahuje na Smer a zväčšuje si potenciál. Od volieb zosilnel aj Hlas". Denník N (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  33. ^ a b "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  34. ^ "PS predbehlo Smer, SNS je mimo". Sme (in Slovak). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  35. ^ a b "Smer si stále drží prvé miesto pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  36. ^ "Smer sa drží na 25 percentách, neklesá ani Hlas. Od volieb najviac stratil Matovič". Denník N (in Slovak). 29 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  37. ^ a b "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  38. ^ a b "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  39. ^ "Účasť v koalícii sa SNS nedarí zúročiť". Sme (in Slovak). 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  40. ^ a b "Smer zostáva najsilnejší". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 December 2023. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  41. ^ a b "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  42. ^ a b "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  43. ^ a b "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  44. ^ "Prvý povolebný model Ipsosu: Smer má 24 percent, PS 19. Matovičov nový názov ľudí mätie". Denník N (in Slovak). 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Slovak_parliamentary_election&oldid=1264640189"