French
DeutschPolymarket
 | |
| Developer(s) | Shayne Coplan |
|---|---|
| Platform | Polygon |
| Available in | English |
| Type | Prediction market platform |
| License | Free software (GPL) |
| Website | polymarket |
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events. Users buy and sell shares using cryptocurrency to bet on the likelihood of future events taking place. Polymarket uses the Polygon network. Polymarket has no fees for trading, and all gas fees are paid by the platform.
History
[edit]Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan,[1] Polymarket is an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.[2] In January 2022, the platform was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, alongside receiving a cease and desist order, following regulation violations including not registering as a Swap Execution Facility.[3][4] According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered "substantial cooperation" throughout the investigation which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.[1]
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.[5] In May 2024, it was announced that Polymarket had raised $70 million across two rounds of funding.[6] The rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel.[1]
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company had increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral;[7] the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date,[7] rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers.[8] Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.[8]
In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform,[6] with over $1 billion (as of September 25, 2024)[9] wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.[1] Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024.[10] The site allows users to leave comments on markets. However, the content is largely unmoderated.
Market Resolution Mechanism
[edit]Polymarket uses UMA to settle markets. Users propose markets using UMA, putting up a bond (typically $750) to propose a market. Then, there will be a waiting period (typically 2 hours) for other users to dispute the proposed resolution. If the market is not disputed, the user will get a reward (typically $5) for their proposal. If there is a dispute, the proposal will go to UMA for a vote. If the original proposal is voted as correct, the original proposal will get their original funds back, plus a portion of the disputer's bond (e.g. $250 for a $750 bond). If the original proposal is voted as incorrect, the disputer will get their bond back, plus a portion of the original proposer's bond.
See also
[edit]- Stake.com, a similar gambling platform that accepts cryptocurrencies
References
[edit]- ^ a b c d Folk, Zachary (May 14, 2024). "Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear". Forbes. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
- ^ "A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events". NBC News. July 10, 2023. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved December 13, 2023.
- ^ "CFTC Fines Polymarket and Issues a Cease and Desist". Yahoo Finance. January 4, 2022. Archived from the original on December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 13, 2023.
- ^ "Event-Betting Platform Polymarket to Pay $1.4 Million U.S. Fine". Bloomberg.com. January 3, 2022. Archived from the original on January 15, 2022. Retrieved December 13, 2023.
- ^ Natarajan, Sridhar (May 19, 2022). "Crypto Betting Service Polymarket Taps Ex-CFTC Head as Chair After Agency Probe". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ a b Natarajan, Sridhar; Pan, David (May 14, 2024). "Peter Thiel's VC Firm Backs Election Betting With Polymarket Investment". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
Polymarket has raised $70 million across two rounds, with the most recent raise led by Founders Fund...
- ^ a b Breland, Ali (June 23, 2023). "Meet the Internet Gamblers Who Won Big Betting on the Submarine's Fate". Mother Jones. Archived from the original on April 24, 2024. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
- ^ a b "A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events". NBC News. July 10, 2023. Archived from the original on December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 13, 2023.
- ^ "Polymarket | Presidential Election Winner 2024". Polymarket. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ Salmon, Felix (July 22, 2024). "Prediction markets notch an important win with Biden's drop out". Axios. Archived from the original on September 6, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.