French
DeutschSplit Ticket (website)
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| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Founded | 31 December 2021[1] |
| Country of origin | United States |
| Founder(s) | Lakshya Jain Harrison Lavelle Armin Thomas |
Split Ticket is an American political forecasting website that was founded in 2021. The website predicts elections for the United States presidential election by state, the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections.
History
[edit]The website was founded in 2021 by Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle, and Armin Thomas. The interest for the website initially came from a Twitter community, known as Election Twitter. Leon Sit joined the website in 2022, and Max McCall joined in 2024.[2] Jain first entered political media following the 2016 United States presidential election, and the surprise that came from the unexpected result.[3]
In 2023, they used a "wins above replacement" method to determine what candidates over performed expectations, based on the PVI and the political environment. They found that Joe Manchin and Jon Tester were the two winning candidates that performed the best, above what was expected.[4] They also found that Republican Problem Solvers and Blue Dogs performed better in both caucuses and the 2022 general election.[5][6]
In 2024, the website partnered with Politico to create a game in which the user plays as a campaign manager.[7][8] The game was created an algorithm that split U.S. counties into separate groups based on how they would vote.[9] They also published a New York Times opinion article about campaign money spent on abortion ads.[10][11]
Predictions
[edit]In making predictions, the website focuses on polling aggregators that factor in how old a poll is, quality of other polls, population, and sample size.[11]
References
[edit]- ^ "split-ticket.org". who.is. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ "About Us". Split Ticket. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ Audie Cornish (26 September 2024). "The Gen Z Group Making Politics Fun". The Assignment with Audie Cornish (Podcast). CNN. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ "Jon Tester Is a Historically Strong Candidate". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ Kerr, Liam. "Democrats should try harder to win tough races". Slow Boring. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ "Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms". Split Ticket. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ Zydor, Kate. "Student co-founder of Split Ticket partners with Politico to create election simulation game". The Signal. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ Jain, Lakshya; Lavelle, Harrison; Sit, Leon; Thomas, Armin; Milligan, Andrew. "You Be The Campaign Manager". Politico. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ "The 8 places that will decide the 2024 election". Politico. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ "What Abortion Ad Spending Shows About Democrats' 2024 Campaign". The New York Times. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ^ a b "TCNJ student Harrison Lavelle takes a nonpartisan look inside political polling". The College of New Jersey. Retrieved 23 October 2024.