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Deutsch2011 Castilian-Manchegan regional election
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All 49 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 25 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 1,566,641  4.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 1,189,986 (76.0%)2.3 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2011 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 49 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which had formed the government of the region since the first election in 1983, lost the vote to the opposition People's Party (PP) under María Dolores de Cospedal, which gained overall control of the Cortes for the first time. As a result of the election, Dolores de Cospedal replaced outgoing José María Barreda as President of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Castilian-Manchegan people abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]
The 49 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of seats: 10 for Albacete, 11 for Ciudad Real, 8 for Cuenca, 8 for Guadalajara and 12 for Toledo.[1][4]
The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[4][5][6]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 22 May 2011.[1][4][5][6]
The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]
Opinion polls
[edit]The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 25 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (24 until 17 November 2007).
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |  |  |  | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | — | 76.0 | 43.4 24 | 48.1 25 | 3.8 0 | 1.8 0 | 4.7 |
| GAD/COPE[p 1][p 2] | 16 May 2011 | ? | 75 | 44.1 22/24 | 49.6 25/27 | – | – | 5.5 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 3] | 16 May 2011 | ? | ? | 47.5 25 | 46.5 24 | – | – | 1.0 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 4] | 14 May 2011 | ? | ? | 43.9 23/25 | 46.6 24/26 | 4.5 0 | – | 2.7 |
| Metroscopia/El País[p 5][p 6] | 11–12 May 2011 | 1,800 | ? | 42.2 21/24 | 47.9 25/28 | – | – | 5.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7] | 9–11 May 2011 | 1,000 | ? | 44.6 22/25 | 48.4 24/27 | 3.9 0 | – | 3.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 8][p 9] | 3–10 May 2011 | ? | ? | 46.9 24 | 46.3 25 | – | – | 0.6 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 10][p 11] | 25 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | 47.9 24/25 | 46.8 24/25 | 4.6 0 | – | 1.1 |
| Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 12] | 13–20 Apr 2011 | 900 | ? | 46.1 25 | 48.3 24 | 4.6 0 | – | 2.2 |
| CIS[p 13][p 14] | 17 Mar – 17 Apr 2011 | 1,990 | ? | 45.0 24 | 46.3 25 | 4.4 0 | 0.8 0 | 1.3 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15] | 11–14 Apr 2011 | 1,000 | ? | 43.9 22/24 | 49.3 25/27 | 3.6 0 | – | 5.4 |
| Ikerfel/Vocento[p 16][p 17][p 18] | 8–11 Apr 2011 | 1,850 | ? | 42.5 21/23 | 48.6 26/28 | – | – | 6.1 |
| GAD/ABC[p 19][p 20] | 28 Feb – 1 Mar 2011 | 1,000 | ? | 44.0 22/24 | 50.3 25/27 | – | – | 6.3 |
| PSOE[p 21][p 22] | 26 Jan – 5 Feb 2011 | 2,000 | ? | 44.5 25 | 43.9 24 | – | – | 0.6 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Tribuna[p 23][p 24] | 11 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 47.2 25 | 45.3 24 | 4.4 0 | 2.1 0 | 1.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 25][p 26] | 30 Dec – 3 Jan 2011 | ? | ? | 48.2 24/25 | 46.2 24/25 | – | – | 2.0 |
| DYM/ABC[p 27] | 20–30 Dec 2010 | 514 | ? | 45.6 23 | 50.8 26 | – | – | 5.2 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 28] | 17–22 Dec 2010 | 1,000 | ? | 43.7 20/25 | 50.0 24/29 | – | – | 6.3 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/PP[p 29][p 30] | 2–4 Nov 2010 | 1,500 | ? | 42.2 22 | 46.9 27 | 5.9 0 | 4.2 0 | 4.7 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/PP[p 31][p 32] | 11–14 Oct 2010 | 1,500 | ? | 41.3 22 | 47.4 27 | – | – | 6.1 |
| Sigma Dos/PP[p 33] | 29 Jun – 2 Jul 2010 | ? | ? | 41.4 22 | 47.4 27 | – | – | 6.0 |
| Celeste-Tel/La Tribuna[p 34][p 35] | 28 Jun 2010 | ? | 71.1 | 47.4 25 | 45.0 24 | 4.2 0 | 2.5 0 | 2.4 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 36] | 21–25 May 2010 | 1,000 | ? | 41.4 20/23 | 49.7 26/29 | 4.1 0 | – | 8.3 |
| Noxa/PSOE[p 37][p 38] | 14 Mar 2010 | ? | ? | 48.1 25/26 | 44.1 23/24 | 3.1 0 | 3.3 0 | 4.0 |
| PP[p 39][p 40] | 4–14 Mar 2010 | 2,000 | ? | 44.8 24 | 45.6 25 | 4.1 0 | 3.0 0 | 0.8 |
| Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 41][p 38] | 1–8 Mar 2010 | 795 | ? | 46.1 25 | 44.6 24 | 3.2 0 | 3.2 0 | 1.5 |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | — | 51.7 | 39.9 21 | 51.5 28 | 3.0 0 | 2.6 0 | 11.6 |
| 2008 general election | 9 Mar 2008 | — | 80.0 | 44.5 23 | 49.4 26 | 2.9 0 | 1.1 0 | 4.9 |
| 2007 regional election | 27 May 2007 | — | 73.7 | 52.0 26 | 42.4 21 | 3.4 0 | – | 9.6 |
Results
[edit]Overall
[edit] | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 564,954 | 48.11 | +5.73 | 25 | +4 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 509,738 | 43.40 | –8.56 | 24 | –2 | |
| United Left of Castilla–La Mancha (IUCLM) | 44,302 | 3.77 | +0.35 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 20,554 | 1.75 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 4,128 | 0.35 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Castilian Party (PCAS)1 | 2,752 | 0.23 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) | 2,375 | 0.20 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Ecolo–Greens Guadalajara (Ecolo–V) | 1,673 | 0.14 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB) | 1,615 | 0.14 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union of Independent Citizens of Toledo (UCIT) | 1,430 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Castilian Unity (UdCa) | 745 | 0.06 | –0.05 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD) | 507 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 19,643 | 1.67 | +0.39 | |||
| Total | 1,174,416 | 49 | +2 | |||
| Valid votes | 1,174,416 | 98.69 | –0.56 | |||
| Invalid votes | 15,570 | 1.31 | +0.56 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,189,986 | 75.96 | +2.22 | |||
| Abstentions | 376,655 | 24.04 | –2.22 | |||
| Registered voters | 1,566,641 | |||||
| Sources[7][8][9] | ||||||
Footnotes:
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Distribution by constituency
[edit]| Constituency | PP | PSOE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | S | % | S | |
| Albacete | 48.4 | 5 | 41.7 | 5 |
| Ciudad Real | 46.1 | 5 | 46.3 | 6 |
| Cuenca | 47.4 | 4 | 46.6 | 4 |
| Guadalajara | 49.8 | 5 | 38.0 | 3 |
| Toledo | 49.1 | 6 | 42.9 | 6 |
| Total | 48.1 | 25 | 43.4 | 24 |
| Sources[7][8][9] | ||||
Aftermath
[edit]| Investiture María Dolores de Cospedal (PP) | ||
| Ballot → | 21 June 2011 | |
|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 25 out of 49  | |
Yes
| 25 / 49 | |
No
| 24 / 49 | |
| Abstentions | 0 / 49 | |
| Absentees | 0 / 49 | |
| Sources[9] | ||
References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "El Partido Popular ganaría las elecciones autonómicas en Castilla–La Mancha por 5,5 puntos". COPE (in Spanish). 16 May 2011. Archived from the original on 20 May 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "El PP ganará las elecciones autonómicas en Castilla–La Mancha (COPE)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 16 May 2011. Archived from the original on 21 June 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "El PSOE de Barreda mantiene una reñida ventaja sobre el PP". Público (in Spanish). 16 May 2011. Archived from the original on 17 May 2011.
- ^ "María Dolores de Cospedal sería la primera presidenta de Castilla La Mancha". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 14 May 2011.
- ^ "Cospedal, cerca de un triunfo histórico". El País (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
- ^ "Estimación de resultado electoral en Castilla–La Mancha". El País (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
- ^ "Cascos supera al PP en Asturias (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "El PP doblega al PSOE a siete días de la cita electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "Vuelco en Cantabria (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "Cospedal, a un paso de derrotar a Barreda". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 26 April 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "Al borde del vuelco". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
- ^ "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2011. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio nº 2877. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
- ^ "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
- ^ "El PSOE perdería Castilla–La Mancha tras 28 años de gobierno (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011.
- ^ "Cospedal logra una victoria histórica para terminar con 28 años de socialismo". ABC (in Spanish). 8 May 2011.
- ^ "El PP arrebataría Castilla–La Mancha al PSOE y haría gobernar a Cospedal". El Correo (in Spanish). 8 May 2011.
- ^ "Castilla–La Mancha: el PP saca de 3 a 7 escaños al PSOE (Grupo Vocento)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 May 2011. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011.
- ^ "Cospedal derribaría hoy a Barreda en Castilla–La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 8 March 2011.
- ^ "Castilla–La Mancha: Guadalajara clave para la victoria del PP (ABC)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 March 2011. Archived from the original on 14 May 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "La mala opinión en Castilla–La Mancha sobre Zapatero pone en apuros a Barreda". El País (in Spanish). 4 March 2011.
- ^ "El PSOE ganaría en Castilla–La Mancha por un escaño (sondeo propio)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 4 March 2011. Archived from the original on 27 July 2011.
- ^ "Ciudad Real tiene la llave para designar al futuro presidente de Castilla–La Mancha". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 11 January 2011.
- ^ "El PSOE gana por un escaño al PP en Castilla–La Mancha (Celeste Tel)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 11 January 2011. Archived from the original on 17 January 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 5 March 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "El PP, a un paso de la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y Castilla La Mancha (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 26 January 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "El PSOE cae en Castilla–La Mancha y el PP tendría hoy mayoría absoluta". ABC (in Spanish). 14 January 2011.
- ^ "Cospedal supera a Barreda en 6,3 puntos (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 5 January 2011. Archived from the original on 6 November 2011.
- ^ "Encuesta del PP da ganadora a Cospedal sobre Barreda con ventaja de 5 escaños". El Diario Montañés (in Spanish). 7 November 2010. Archived from the original on 2 January 2018. Retrieved 1 January 2018.
- ^ "El PP saca 5 escaños al PSOE en Castilla–La Mancha (encuesta del PP)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 November 2010. Archived from the original on 6 November 2011.
- ^ "La última encuesta del PP le da vencedor en Castilla–La Mancha". El País (in Spanish). 24 October 2010.
- ^ "Castilla–La Mancha: Cospedal gana a Barreda (encuesta del PP)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 October 2010. Archived from the original on 4 November 2011.
- ^ "Toledo garantizaría la victoria del PP en las elecciones autonómicas". ABC (in Spanish). 1 September 2010.
- ^ "El PSOE y Barreda ganarían las elecciones autonómicas si se celebraran hoy". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 28 June 2010.
- ^ "Ciudad Real decidirá las elecciones en Castilla–La Mancha (La Tribuna)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 28 June 2010. Archived from the original on 18 September 2010. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "Vuelco del mapa electoral autonómico (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 31 May 2010. Archived from the original on 2 June 2010.
- ^ "Barreda ganaría las elecciones según una encuesta de Noxa para el PSOE". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 14 March 2010.
- ^ a b "Dos sondeos auguran una campaña muy disputada entre Barreda y Cospedal en Castilla–La Mancha". Electómetro (in Spanish). 14 March 2010. Archived from the original on 15 October 2010. Retrieved 19 April 2015.
- ^ "Un sondeo da la victoria al PP por primera vez en 28 años en Castilla–La Mancha". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 4 April 2010. Archived from the original on 9 September 2011. Retrieved 9 April 2011.
- ^ "Un sondeo interno del PP le sitúa como vencedor de las próximas elecciones autonómicas en Castilla–La Mancha". Electómetro (in Spanish). 5 April 2010. Archived from the original on 15 October 2010. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
- ^ "Triunfo reñido de Barreda". Público (in Spanish). 14 March 2010. Archived from the original on 9 March 2012.
- Other
- ^ a b c d Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
- ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b c Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986. Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
- ^ a b General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
- ^ a b "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
- ^ a b "Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results, 22 May 2011" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha. 13 June 2011. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
- ^ a b "VIII Legislature. Regional election, 22 May 2011". www.cortesclm.es (in Spanish). Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
- ^ a b c "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.
