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Deutsch2019 Ceuta Assembly election
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All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 62,561  1.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 34,118 (54.5%)6.5 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2019 Ceuta Assembly election, was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 7th Assembly of the Autonomous City of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in thirteen autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.
Electoral system
[edit]The Assembly of Ceuta is the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allows Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[1][2][3]
The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][2][3]
The Mayor-President is indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause requires that mayoral candidates earn the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly shall be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[3]
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][1]
Opinion polls
[edit]The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |  |  | MDyC |  | PDSC |  |  |  |  | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Assembly election | 26 May 2019 | — | 56.9 | 31.1 9 | 25.6 7 | 6.2 1 | 7.0 2 | 4.5 0 | 1.0 0 | [a] | 22.4 6 | [a] | 1.5 0 | 5.5 |
| La Verdad de Ceuta[p 1] | 20 May 2019 | ? | ? | ? 6/7 | ? 5/6 | ? 0/1 | ? 5/6 | ? 0/1 | ? 0 | [a] | ? 7/8 | [a] | ? 0 | ? |
| April 2019 general election | 28 Apr 2019 | — | 64.0 | 21.4 (6) | 36.3 (10) | – | – | 12.0 (3) | – | [a] | 24.0 (6) | [a] | 4.8 (0) | 14.9 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] | 31 Mar–7 Apr 2019 | ? | ? | 30.0 9 | 20.1 6 | 5.1 1 | 6.5 1 | 9.1 2 | – | [a] | 22.4 6 | [a] | 2.3 0 | 7.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3] | 24–31 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 29.4 9 | 20.3 6 | 5.1 1 | 6.4 1 | 9.4 2 | – | [a] | 22.6 6 | [a] | 2.3 0 | 6.8 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] | 17–24 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 29.2 8 | 21.0 6 | 5.3 1 | 6.7 2 | 8.6 2 | – | [a] | 22.7 6 | [a] | 2.3 0 | 6.5 |
| La Verdad de Ceuta[p 5] | 18 Mar 2019 | 3,423 | ? | 23.0 6/7 | 17.3 5 | 6.4 1 | 9.9 2/3 | 1.2 0 | – | – | 36.5 10/11 | 1.1 0 | – | 13.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6] | 10–17 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 28.4 8 | 20.0 5 | 5.0 1 | 6.6 1 | 7.2 2 | – | [a] | 27.0 8 | [a] | 2.3 0 | 1.4 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7] | 3–10 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 28.0 8 | 19.9 5 | 5.1 1 | 6.6 1 | 7.5 2 | – | [a] | 27.0 8 | [a] | 2.4 0 | 1.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8] | 22 Feb–3 Mar 2019 | ? | ? | 28.1 8 | 19.6 5 | 4.9 0 | 6.7 2 | 8.0 2 | – | [a] | 26.9 8 | [a] | 2.4 0 | 1.2 |
| Sigma Dos/Ceuta Ahora[p 9] | 14–19 Dec 2018 | 600 | ? | 34.7 10 | 18.5 5 | 6.3 1 | 6.6 1/2 | 9.4 2 | – | [a] | 19.1 5/6 | [a] | 2.8 0 | 15.6 |
| La Verdad de Ceuta[p 10] | 22 Nov 2018 | 1,725 | ? | 36.1 10 | 20.8 6 | 7.5 2 | 10.4 3 | 3.1 0 | – | 0.2 0 | 13.4 4 | 0.4 0 | – | 15.3 |
| SyM Consulting[p 11] | 7–9 Sep 2018 | 518 | 47.0 | 40.5 11/12 | 22.6 6 | 14.2 3/4 | 7.7 2 | 9.6 2 | 1.9 0 | – | – | – | – | 17.9 |
| SyM Consulting[p 12] | 24–25 Apr 2018 | 537 | 40.5 | 37.9 10/11 | 16.6 4/5 | 17.6 5 | 8.7 2 | 12.6 3 | 1.3 0 | – | – | – | – | 20.3 |
| SyM Consulting[p 13][p 14] | 8–9 Feb 2018 | 497 | 43.1 | 42.7 11/12 | 16.1 4/5 | 15.5 4 | 8.4 2 | 11.5 3 | 1.3 0 | – | – | – | – | 26.6 |
| La Verdad de Ceuta[p 15] | 14 May 2017 | 8,088 | ? | 41.5 12 | 13.8 4 | 10.4 3 | 10.3 3 | 10.2 2 | 2.1 0 | 1.2 0 | – | 6.9 1 | – | 27.7 |
| 2016 general election | 26 Jun 2016 | — | 50.7 | 51.9 (14) | 22.6 (6) | [a] | – | 11.5 (3) | – | [a] | 0.5 (0) | [a] | 10.8 (2) | 29.3 |
| 2015 general election | 20 Dec 2015 | — | 54.4 | 44.9 (12) | 23.1 (6) | [b] | – | 13.3 (3) | – | 1.3 (0) | – | 14.1 (4) | – | 21.8 |
| 2015 Assembly election | 24 May 2015 | — | 48.0 | 45.7 13 | 14.0 4 | 13.3 4 | 11.2 3 | 6.0 1 | 1.8 0 | 1.6 0 | 1.2 0 | – | – | 31.7 |
Results
[edit] | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 10,527 | 31.12 | –14.62 | 9 | –4 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 8,658 | 25.60 | +11.56 | 7 | +3 | |
| Vox (Vox) | 7,566 | 22.37 | +21.15 | 6 | +6 | |
| Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC) | 2,353 | 6.96 | –4.21 | 2 | –1 | |
| Caballas Coalition (Caballas) | 2,105 | 6.22 | –7.05 | 1 | –3 | |
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) | 1,537 | 4.54 | –1.47 | 0 | –1 | |
| United We Can–United Left–Equo (Podemos–IU–Equo)1 | 505 | 1.49 | –0.09 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Coalition for Ceuta–Democratic and Social Party of Ceuta (CPC–PDSC) | 329 | 0.97 | –0.85 | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 42 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 204 | 0.60 | –1.00 | |||
| Total | 33,826 | 25 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 33,826 | 99.14 | +0.61 | |||
| Invalid votes | 292 | 0.86 | –0.61 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 34,118 | 54.54 | +6.51 | |||
| Abstentions | 28,443 | 45.46 | –6.51 | |||
| Registered voters | 62,561 | |||||
| Sources[4][5][6] | ||||||
Footnotes:
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Aftermath
[edit]| Investiture | |||
| Ballot → | 15 June 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 13 out of 25 | ||
| 9 / 25 |  | |
| 6 / 25 |  | |
10 / 25 | |||
| Absentees | 0 / 25 | ||
| Sources[7] | |||
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "La última encuesta de La Verdad de Ceuta vuelve a situar a VOX como primera fuerza política el próximo 26M". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
- ^ "ElectoPanel municipal (12A): muchas ciudades pendientes de un concejal". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
- ^ "ElectoPanel municipales (4A): Madrid en Pie no consigue entrar en el Ayuntamiento". Electomanía (in Spanish). 4 April 2019.
- ^ "ElectoPanel Municipales (28M). Mayorías ajustadas en varias ciudades". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 March 2019.
- ^ "VOX, el gran ganador de la última encuesta sobre intención de voto de La Verdad de Ceuta". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 18 March 2019.
- ^ "ElectoPanel para municipales (21M): situación estable en la última semana". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 March 2019.
- ^ "ElectoPanel grandes áreas metropolitanas 14M: la izquierda resiste en Valencia, Madrid se le escapa a Carmena". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 March 2019.
- ^ "ElectoPanel municipal: distintas mayorías posibles y mucha igualdad en varias ciudades". Electomanía (in Spanish). 7 March 2019.
- ^ "PP 10 diputados, VOX 5-6, PSOE 5, Cs 2, MDyC 1-2 y Caballas 1 formarían el Pleno de la Asamblea". Ceuta Ahora (in Spanish). 23 December 2018.
- ^ "VOX tendría la llave del próximo Gobierno en la ciudad, según la última encuesta de 'La Verdad de Ceuta'". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 22 November 2018.
- ^ "Estimación oleada Septiembre 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 24 September 2018.
- ^ "Estimación oleada Abril 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
- ^ "Estimación oleada Febrero 2018 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 February 2018.
- ^ "CEUTA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting, Febrero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 February 2018.
- ^ "Un sondeo de "La Verdad de Ceuta" evidencia que en las próximas autonómicas ganaría el PP, pero con 12 escaños". La Verdad de Ceuta (in Spanish). 14 May 2017.
- Other
- ^ a b c General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
- ^ a b "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
- ^ a b c d Statute of Autonomy of Ceuta of 1995. Official State Gazette (Law 1) (in Spanish). 13 March 1995. Retrieved 7 April 2018.
- ^ "Resolución de 17 de septiembre de 2019, de la Presidencia de la Junta Electoral Central, por la que se procede a la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones locales convocadas por Real Decreto 209/2019, de 1 de abril, y celebradas el 26 de mayo de 2019, según los datos que figuran en las actas de proclamación remitidas por cada una de las Juntas Electorales de Zona. Provincias: Toledo, Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora, Zaragoza, Ceuta y Melilla" (PDF) (in Spanish). Boletín Oficial del Estado. Retrieved 22 October 2021.
- ^ "Electoral Results Consultation. Municipal. May 2019. City of Ceuta". Ministry of the Interior (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2020.
- ^ "Elecciones Municipales y Autonómicas en Ceuta (1979-2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 October 2021.
- ^ "Juan Jesús Vivas (PP),investido presidente de Ceuta sin apoyo de otros grupos". eldiario.es. 15 June 2019. Retrieved 28 July 2019.
