2018 Ohio gubernatorial election

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 Ohio gubernatorial election[1]
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout55.79% Increase15.14pp
 
Nominee Mike DeWine Richard Cordray
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jon Husted Betty Sutton
Popular vote 2,235,825 2,070,046
Percentage 50.40% 46.67%
DeWine:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Cordray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes
Governor before election

John Kasich
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike DeWine
Republican

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The 2018 Ohio gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Ohio, concurrently with the election of Ohio's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various Ohio and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor John Kasich was term-limited and could not seek re-election for a third consecutive term.

Republicans nominated Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. senator Mike DeWine, while Democrats nominated former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and former Ohio attorney general Richard Cordray. This was the second contest between DeWine and Cordray, following the 2010 attorney general election, which DeWine won, 47.5% to 46.3%.

In 2018, DeWine defeated Cordray 50.4% to 46.7%, in what was considered a minor upset. Despite Cordray's loss, he became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win Cincinnati's Hamilton County since Dick Celeste in 1982. Likewise, DeWine became the first Republican to win in the historically Democratic Monroe County in a gubernatorial election since 2002 as the county took a sharp turn to the right. With Democratic senator Sherrod Brown winning re-election in the same year, this was the first election since 1974 in which Ohio simultaneously voted for a gubernatorial nominee and a U.S. Senate nominee of opposite parties.

DeWine and Husted took office on January 14, 2019.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mike DeWine

Notable individuals

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

County parties

State parties

Organizations

  • Buckeye Firearms Association[36]

Newspapers

Jim Renacci (withdrawn)

Organizations

Notable individuals

Mary Taylor

U.S. senators

Governors

Lieutenant governors

Statewide officials

Notable individuals

State senators

State representatives

County Parties

Party leaders

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
DeWine 		Mary
Taylor 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University[61] April 24 – May 2, 2018 323 – 52% 24% – 25%
Remington Research Group (R-Taylor)[62] April 10, 2018 1,064 ± 3.1% 42% 32% – 26%
Fallon Research[63] April 4–7, 2018 502 ± 4.4% 43% 26% – 31%
SurveyUSA[64] March 16–20, 2018 541 ± 5.8% 50% 18% – 31%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC)[65] February 17, 2018 1,152 ± 3.0% 61% 39% – –
35% 16% 15% 33%
Fallon Research[66] January 16–19, 2018 286 – 54% 14% – 32%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
DeWine 		Jon
Husted 		Jim
Renacci 		Mary
Taylor 		Undecided
Axis Research (R-Taylor)[67] August 13–15, 2017 602 ± 4.1% 36% 20% 8% 17% 19%
The Tarrance Group (R)[68] July 24–26, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 42% 18% 5% 11% 24%
49% 29% – – 21%
Luntz Global[69] June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% 13% 3% 8% –
Gravis Marketing[70] April 27 – May 2, 2017 686 ± 2.7% 31% 14% 6% 10% 40%
The Tarrance Group (R)[71] January 23–26, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 47% 18% 4% 10% 22%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  DeWine
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Taylor
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[72]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike DeWine 494,766 59.8
Republican Mary Taylor 332,273 40.2
Total votes 827,039 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Failed to qualify for ballot

[edit]
  • Jon Heavey, physician[85]
  • Dave Kiefer, former Wayne County Commissioner and Republican candidate for state representative in 2016[86]

Withdrew

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Richard Cordray

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State representatives

Mayors

City Council members

County officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Notable individuals

Newspapers

Dennis Kucinich

Organizations

Governors

U.S. representatives

State senators

County officials

City Council members

Notable individuals

Newspapers

Joe Schiavoni

Political organizations

Labor unions

Notable individuals

Connie Pillich (withdrawn)

Governors

  • Ed Rendell, former governor of Pennsylvania and former Democratic National Committee Chairman

State representatives

Mayors

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Betty Sutton (withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Nan Whaley (withdrawn)

Mayors

City Council members

County officials

Labor unions

  • Dayton Building & Construction Trades Council[130]
  • IUE-CWA – International Union of Electronic, Electrical, Salaried, Machine and Furniture Workers[155]
  • Ohio State Council of Machinists[156]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Richard
Cordray 		Dennis
Kucinich 		Bill
O'Neill 		Connie
Pillich 		Joe
Schiavoni 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University[61] April 24 – May 2, 2018 333 – 31% 15% 6% – 6% – 41%
Fallon Research[157] April 4–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 28% 13% 3% – 5% 1%[A] 51%
SurveyUSA[64] March 16–20, 2018 509 ± 5.3% 21% 21% 4% 5% – 3%[B] 46%
Fallon Research[66] January 16–19, 2018 248 – 23% 16% 3% 2% 4% – 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Richard
Cordray 		Connie
Pillich 		Joe
Schiavoni 		Betty
Sutton 		Nan
Whaley 		Undecided
Luntz Global[69] June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 17% 9% 20% 21% 10% –
Gravis Marketing[70] April 27 – May 2, 2017 558 ± 2.7% – 8% 12% 13% – 67%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Cordray
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Schiavoni
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[72]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Richard Cordray 423,264 62.3
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 155,694 22.9
Democratic Joe Schiavoni 62,315 9.2
Democratic Bill O'Neill 22,196 3.3
Democratic Paul Ray 9,373 1.4
Democratic Larry Ealy 6,896 1.0
Total votes 679,738 100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Travis Irvine, filmmaker and writer[158]
    • Running mate: Todd Grayson[159]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Bruce Jaynes, entrepreneur
  • Stephen Quinn, student

Green primary

[edit]
Gadell-Newton

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Constance Gadell-Newton, attorney, co-chair of the Ohio Green Party and nominee for the State House in 2016[160]
    • Running mate: Brett R. Joseph

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Richard Cordray (D)

Former federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State representatives

Mayors

City Council members

County officials

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Mike DeWine (R)

Federal officials

Governors

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Debates

[edit]
Host
network/sponsors 		Location Date Link(s) Possible Participants
Richard
Cordray (D) 		Mike
DeWine (R) 		Travis Irvine (L) Constance Gadell-Newton (G)
WHIO-TV University of Dayton September 19, 2018 [196] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited
WCMH-TV Marietta College October 1, 2018 [197] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited
Ohio Debate Commission Cleveland State University October 8, 2018 [198] Invited Invited Not Invited Not Invited

[199]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[200] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[201] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[202] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[203] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[204] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[205] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[206] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[207][a] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[208] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[209] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
DeWine
(R) 		Richard
Cordray
(D) 		Travis
Irvine
(L) 		Constance
Gadell-
Newton (G) 		Other Undecided
Change Research[210] November 2–4, 2018 923 – 43% 48% 5% 1% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[211] November 2–4, 2018 1,948 ± 2.2% 42% 46% – – 7% 5%
Research Co.[212] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 44% – – 2% 10%
Cygnal (R)[213] October 30–31, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% – 9%
Gravis Marketing[214] October 29–30, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 43% 48% – – – 9%
Emerson College[215] October 26–28, 2018 566 ± 4.3% 46% 49% – – 2% 3%
Baldwin Wallace University[216] October 19–27, 2018 1,051 ± 3.8% 39% 39% 4% 2% – 16%
41% 42% – – – 17%
Suffolk University[217] October 4–8, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 46% 2% 0% 0%[C] 10%
Baldwin Wallace University[218] September 8 – October 8, 2018 1,017 ± 3.5% 40% 37% 4% 3% – 15%
42% 39% – – – 19%
University of Akron[219] September 10 – October 4, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 36% – – – 27%
Ipsos[220] September 13–21, 2018 1,074 ± 3.0% 45% 44% – – 2% 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[221] September 18–20, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 49% 44% – – – 8%
Marist College[222] September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 5.0% 44% 44% 3% 3% <1% 6%
47% 47% – – 1% 6%
796 RV ± 4.2% 42% 43% 4% 4% 1% 6%
47% 47% – – 1% 6%
Baldwin Wallace University[223] September 5–15, 2018 1,048 ± 3.6% 42% 37% – – – 21%
Morning Consult[224] September 2–11, 2018 1,592 ± 2.0% 39% 38% – – – 23%
Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio)[225] August 31 – September 4, 2018 822 ± 3.0% 45% 43% 6% 3% – –
43% 43% – – – 14%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC)[226] June 30 – July 10, 2018 1,485 ± 3.0% 42% 38% – – 3% 17%
Marist College[227] June 17–22, 2018 778 ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – 2% 11%
Quinnipiac University[228] June 7–12, 2018 1,082 ± 3.7% 40% 42% – – 2% 14%
Suffolk University[229] June 6–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 36% 43% – 3% 2% 16%
America First Action (R)[230] May 29–31, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 38% – – – 10%
Fallon Research[231] May 21–25, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 40% 34% – 1% 3%[D] 22%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[232] May 6–7, 2018 618 ± 3.9% 39% 44% – – – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[232] April 25–26, 2018 770 ± 3.5% 38% 47% – – – 14%
SurveyUSA[64] March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% 47% 39% – – – 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[233] January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 45% 44% – – – 11%
Fallon Research[66] January 16–19, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 49% 28% – – – 23%
Luntz Global[69] June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 55% 31% – – – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with DeWine and Kucinich

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
DeWine (R) 		Dennis
Kucinich (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[64] March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% 51% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[233] January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 48% 37% 14%

with DeWine and Pillich

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
DeWine (R) 		Connie
Pillich (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[233] January 22–23, 2018 585 ± 4.1% 47% 35% 18%

with Jon Husted

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jon
Husted (R) 		Richard
Cordray (D) 		Undecided
Luntz Global[69] June 12, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 47% 35% 18%

with generic Republican and Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University[234] February 28 – March 9, 2018 1,011 ± 3.0% 37% 32% –

Results

[edit]
Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike DeWine 2,235,825 50.40% −13.24%
Democratic Richard Cordray 2,070,046 46.67% +13.64%
Libertarian Travis Irvine 80,055 1.80% N/A
Green Constance Gadell-Newton 49,536 1.12% −2.21%
Write-in Renea Turner (write-in) 185 0.00% N/A
Write-in Richard Duncan (write-in) 132 0.00% N/A
Write-in Rebecca Ayres (write-in) 41 0.00% N/A
Total votes 4,435,820 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

DeWine won 12 of 16 congressional districts.[235]

District DeWine Cordray Representative
1st 52.15% 45.14% Steve Chabot
2nd 54.33% 42.65% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 27.46% 70.09% Joyce Beatty
4th 62.14% 34.23% Jim Jordan
5th 58.32% 38.31% Bob Latta
6th 64.34% 32.81% Bill Johnson
7th 59.45% 37.16% Bob Gibbs
8th 64.37% 32.45% Warren Davidson
9th 35.31% 61.33% Marcy Kaptur
10th 52.11% 44.87% Mike Turner
11th 18.43% 79.5% Marcia Fudge
12th 52.41% 45.24% Troy Balderson
13th 40.37% 56.56% Tim Ryan
14th 51.98% 45.18% David Joyce
15th 52.64% 44.64% Steve Stivers
16th 53.71% 43.38% Anthony Gonzalez

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Paul Ray 1%, Larry Ealy 0%
  2. ^ Paul Ray 2%, Larry Ealy 1%
  3. ^ Richard Duncan (write-in), Rebecca Ayers (write-in), and Renea Turner (write-in) with 0%
  4. ^ Colin Hill (I) with 3%

References

[edit]
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  3. ^ Pelzer, Jeremy (June 25, 2017). "Mike DeWine enters GOP race for Ohio governor". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
  4. ^ a b c Pelzer, Jeremy (November 30, 2017). "Jon Husted officially ends campaign for Ohio governor, becomes Mike DeWine's running mate". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved December 1, 2017.
  5. ^ Gomez, Henry J. (February 23, 2017). "Mary Taylor for Governor launches". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
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  15. ^ a b @DeWineHustedOH. "Very pleased to receive the endorsement of Green Mayor Gerard Neugebauer. @JonHusted and I are happy to have such strong support in NE Ohio!". Twitter.
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  61. ^ a b Baldwin Wallace University
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  63. ^ Fallon Research
  64. ^ a b c d SurveyUSA
  65. ^ TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) Archived 2018-03-03 at the Wayback Machine
  66. ^ a b c Fallon Research
  67. ^ Axis Research (R-Taylor)
  68. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
  69. ^ a b c d Luntz Global
  70. ^ a b Gravis Marketing
  71. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
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