2023 Asturian regional election

2023 Asturian regional election
← 2019 28 May 2023 Next →
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered958,658 Red arrow down1.6%
Turnout545,002 (56.8%)
Green arrow up1.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Adrián Barbón Diego Canga Carolina López
Party PSOE PP Vox
Leader since 17 September 2017 28 November 2022 19 January 2023
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 20 seats, 35.3% 10 seats, 17.5% 2 seats, 6.4%
Seats won 19 17 4
Seat change Red arrow down1 Green arrow up7 Green arrow up2
Popular vote 195,999 175,131 54,273
Percentage 36.5% 32.6% 10.1%
Swing Green arrow up1.2 pp Green arrow up15.1 pp Green arrow up3.7 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Ovidio Zapico Covadonga Tomé Adrián Pumares
Party IU–MP–IAS Podemos Asturies Foro
Leader since 28 January 2023 4 November 2022 1 October 2022
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 2 seats, 6.6%[a] 4 seats, 11.0% 2 seats, 6.5%
Seats won 3 1 1
Seat change Green arrow up1 Red arrow down3 Red arrow down1
Popular vote 40,774 21,052 19,652
Percentage 7.6% 3.9% 3.7%
Swing Green arrow up1.0 pp Red arrow down7.1 pp Red arrow down2.8 pp
President before election

Adrián Barbón
PSOE

Elected President

Adrián Barbón
PSOE

The 2023 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 12th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established as follows:

Each constituency was allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each General Junta constituency was entitled the following seats:[5]

Seats Constituencies
34 Central District
6 Western District
5 Eastern District

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[6]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][4][7]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

The election to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (BOPA).[5]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]
Further information: 11th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the time of the election call.[8]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023[9]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 20 20
People's Parliamentary Group PP 10 10
Citizens Parliamentary Group CS 4 4
We Can Asturias Parliamentary Group Podemos 4 4
Asturias Forum Parliamentary Group Foro 2 2
United Left Parliamentary Group IU/IX 2 2
Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 2 2
Mixed Parliamentary Group INDEP 1[b] 1

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][7]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Adrián Barbón Social democracy 35.26% 20 checkY [11]
PP
List
 Diego Canga Conservatism
Christian democracy 		17.52% 10 ☒N [12]
CS
List
 Manuel Iñarra Liberalism 13.97% 5 ☒N [13]
[14]
[15]
Podemos
Asturies
List
 Covadonga Tomé Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		11.04% 4 ☒N [16]
IU–MP–IAS
List
 Ovidio Zapico Socialism
Communism 		6.62%[a] 2 ☒N [17]
[18]
Foro
List
 Adrián Pumares Regionalism
Conservatism 		6.52% 2 ☒N [19]
Vox
List
 Carolina López Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		6.43% 2 ☒N [20]
[21]

Campaign

[edit]

Election debates

[edit]
2023 Asturian regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[c]  
PSOE PP CS Podemos CxAst Foro Vox Audience Ref.
17 May RTPA Nacho Monserrat
Natalia Alonso 		P
Barbón 		P
Canga 		P
Iñarra 		P
Tomé 		P
Zapico 		P
Pumares 		P
López 		6.8%
(19,000) 		[22]
[23]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to 28 May 2023, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 28 May 2023 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 195,999 36.50 +1.24 19 –1
People's Party (PP) 175,131 32.61 +15.09 17 +7
Vox (Vox) 54,273 10.11 +3.68 4 +2
Assembly for Asturias United Left–More Country–Asturian Left (IU–MP–IAS)1 40,774 7.59 +0.97 3 +1
We Can Asturias (Podemos Asturies) 21,052 3.92 –7.12 1 –3
Asturias Forum (Foro) 19,652 3.66 –2.86 1 –1
SOS Asturias–Empty Spain (SOS Asturias) 5,838 1.09 New 0 ±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) 4,974 0.93 –13.04 0 –5
Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)2 3,271 0.61 –0.03 0 ±0
Greens–Equo Asturias (V–Q) 1,717 0.32 –0.08 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE) 1,401 0.26 +0.06 0 ±0
Andecha Astur (Andecha) 1,245 0.23 –0.07 0 ±0
Unite Principality (SMP) 1,148 0.21 New 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 789 0.15 New 0 ±0
State of Spain Unionist Party (PUEDE) 236 0.04 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 9,523 1.77 +0.67
Total 537,023 45 ±0
Valid votes 537,023 98.54 –0.52
Invalid votes 7,979 1.46 +0.52
Votes cast / turnout 545,002 56.85 +1.73
Abstentions 413,656 43.15 –1.73
Registered voters 958,658
Sources[8][24]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSOE
 
 36.50%
PP
 
 32.61%
Vox
 
 10.11%
IU–MP–IAS
 
 7.59%
Podemos Ast.
 
 3.92%
Foro
 
 3.66%
SOS Asturias
 
 1.09%
Others
 
 2.75%
Blank ballots
 
 1.77%
Seats
PSOE
 
 42.22%
PP
 
 37.78%
Vox
 
 8.89%
IU–MP–IAS
 
 6.67%
Podemos Ast.
 
 2.22%
Foro
 
 2.22%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PSOE PP Vox CxAst Podemos Foro
% S % S % S % S % S % S
Central 36.2 13 32.0 12 10.7 4 8.2 3 4.3 1 3.2 1
Eastern 38.3 3 36.4 2 9.5 − 4.7 − 2.6 − 3.9 −
Western 37.0 3 35.0 3 6.5 − 5.4 − 1.7 − 6.7 −
Total 36.5 19 32.6 17 10.1 4 7.6 3 3.9 1 3.7 1
Sources[24]

Aftermath

[edit]
Further information: Second government of Adrián Barbón

Barbón was elected invested as President with majority in the first voting.[25]

Investiture
Ballot → 19 July 2023
Required majority → 23 out of 45
23 / 45
 checkY
Abstentions
22 / 45
Absentees
0 / 45
Sources[25]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Results for IU–IAS in the 2019 election.
  2. ^ Luis Armando Fernández Bartolomé, former CS legislator.[10]
  3. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Within Unidas Podemos.
  5. ^ Extrapolation from results for the Central District.
  6. ^ Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.
  7. ^ a b Within PP.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Elecciones autonómicas: El PP arrebataría al PSOE la Comunidad Valenciana, Castilla-La Mancha y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 May 2023.
  2. ^ "El PSOE de Barbón solo alcanzaría la mayoría absoluta en Asturias junto a Podemos e IU". Público (in Spanish). 19 May 2023.
  3. ^ "¿Quién gobernará en Asturias el 28-M según el último sondeo? Los resultados no dejan lugar a dudas". El Plural (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  4. ^ "EP Autonómico (20My – Final): nos espera un 28M de infarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2023.
  5. ^ "La encuesta de LNE: La izquierda volvería a tener mayoría en Asturias pese al importante avance de la derecha". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  6. ^ "[AUT] ASTURIAS Encuesta GESOP 21/05/2023: PODEMOS 5,3% (2), IU-MÁS PAÍS-IAS 7,3% (3), PSOE 36,4% (18/20), SOS-EV 1,0%, FORO 4,1% (1), CS 2,0%, PP 29,5% (15/16), VOX 10,2% (4/5)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 21 May 2023.
  7. ^ "Clarísimo vencedor en Asturias el próximo 28M, según el último sondeo". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  8. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  9. ^ "Barbón volverá a ganar, pero necesita el apoyo de Podemos para gobernar". ABC (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  10. ^ "Barbón gana y la izquierda tiene mayoría, aunque el PP es el partido que más sube". El Comercio (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  11. ^ "Asturias, con un claro vencedor el 28M según el último sondeo". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  12. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  13. ^ a b "Barbón volvería a ganar las elecciones en Asturias y la izquierda sumaría una holgada mayoría". La Voz de Asturias (in Spanish). 4 May 2023.
  14. ^ a b "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Principado de Asturias (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  15. ^ "Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  16. ^ "Asturias / La izquierda gobernaría". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  17. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  18. ^ "El PP toma impulso con un sondeo propio que ve posible una victoria de la derecha". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 26 April 2023.
  19. ^ "[AUT] ASTURIAS. Encuesta GAD3 (interna PP) 26/04/2023: PODEMOS 7,0% (2/3), IU-MP 5,2% (2), PSOE 36,3% (18/19), FORO 2,3% (0/1), CS 1,3%, PP 33,9% (17), VOX 10,8% (4/5)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 26 April 2023.
  20. ^ "Asturias / Gana el PSOE y la izquierda mantiene la mayoría". El Plural (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  21. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  22. ^ "El PSOE volverá a ganar las elecciones en Asturias pero necesitará el apoyo de otras formaciones para gobernar". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 19 April 2023.
  23. ^ "ElectoPanel Asturias / Claro triunfo de la izquierda con un PSOE imbatible". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  24. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  25. ^ "ElectoPanel Asturias / El PSOE arrasa en Asturias y la izquierda gobernaría". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  26. ^ "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  27. ^ "Asturias: El PSOE necesitará a Podemos para mantener el poder". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 March 2023.
  28. ^ "El PSOE volvería a gobernar en Asturias con el apoyo de Podemos e IU". Nortes (in Spanish). 29 March 2023.
  29. ^ "El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones en Asturias, según Electomanía". COPE (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 March 2023.
  30. ^ "El PSOE volverá a ganar en Asturias con castigo para el gobierno de Barbón". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 December 2022.
  31. ^ "ASTURIAS. Encuesta SigmaDos 19/12/2022: IU-IAS 6,4% (2), PODEMOS 8,8% (3/4), PSOE 33,9% (19), FORO 4,7% (0/1), Cs 4,5% (0/1), PP 26,9% (15), VOX 10,9% (4)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 18 December 2022.
  32. ^ a b "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  33. ^ "AsturPanel (15JL): Barbón baja y pierde la absoluta, pero sigue dominando. El PP de Mallada sube pero se queda sin opciones en el 19%". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2022.
  34. ^ "ASTURIAS. Encuesta Metroscopia (interna PP) 17/07/2022: IU-IAS 5,1% (2), PODEMOS 8,7% (3), PSOE 33,7% (17), FORO 1,6%, Cs 1,0%, PP 35,4% (19), VOX 11,5% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 July 2022.
  35. ^ "¿Qué pasaría si hubiera elecciones en Asturias? Un partido sube, otro desaparece y la izquierda se mantendría, según una encuesta". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 20 April 2022.
  36. ^ "A un año vista". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 21 April 2022.
  37. ^ "ElectoPanel (30N): Barbón conseguiría la absoluta en Asturias y la izquierda alcanzaría los 28 diputados". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2021.
  38. ^ "Asturias (15A): sorpasso de Foro a IU y Cs. Barbón pierde la absoluta pero sigue liderando con gran ventaja". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2021.
  39. ^ "Estimación Diciembre 2020. Principado de Asturias. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 7 January 2021.
  40. ^ "EP (17My): Asturias – absoluta para Barbón". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  41. ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  42. ^ "Estimación Mayo 2020. Principado de Asturias. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 11 May 2020.
  43. ^ "ASTURIAS. Encuesta SyM Consulting 11/05/2020: IU-IAS 6,6% (2), PODEMOS 6,3% (2/3), PSOE 43,9% (23/24), Cs 6,4% (2), PP 19,8% (10), FORO 4,2% (1), VOX 11,1% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 May 2020.
Other
  1. ^ a b c Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias (Organic Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. ^ a b c Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (Law 14) (in Spanish). 26 December 1986. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  5. ^ a b "Decreto 11/2023, de 3 de abril, del Presidente del Principado, por el que se convocan elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Principado de Asturias (in Spanish) (65): 5. 4 April 2023. ISSN 1579-7252.
  6. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  7. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  8. ^ a b "Elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
  9. ^ "Junta General del Principado de Asturias. Los diputados del Parlamento Asturiano desde 1982". General Junta of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
  10. ^ Palacio, Marcos (5 May 2022). "Ciudadanos expulsa al diputado Fernández Bartolomé, que se niega a entregar el acta". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  11. ^ "Barbón confirma que se presentará a la reelección" (in Spanish). COPE. 8 September 2022. Retrieved 19 September 2022.
  12. ^ Montes, Vicente (28 November 2022). "Diego Canga Fano, alto funcionario de la UE, será el candidato del PP a la presidencia de Asturias". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 November 2022.
  13. ^ "La periodista Laura Pérez Macho será la portavoz de Ciudadanos en la Junta General" (in Spanish). Oviedo: Europa Press. 26 June 2019. Retrieved 14 October 2020.
  14. ^ "Ciudadanos confirma a Susana Fernández como nueva portavoz en la Junta General, en sustitución de Laura Pérez Macho" (in Spanish). Oviedo: Europa Press. 1 September 2020. Retrieved 14 October 2020.
  15. ^ Ardura, Juan A. (6 February 2023). "Ciudadanos ya tiene candidato en Asturias: Manuel Iñarra liderará el partido". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Oviedo. Retrieved 8 February 2023.
  16. ^ Canga, Pablo (4 November 2022). "Los críticos de Podemos imponen a su candidata, Covadonga Tomé, como cabeza de lista al Principado" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
  17. ^ "Ovidio Zapico encabeza la única lista consensuada de IU de Asturias a las próximas elecciones" (in Spanish). Asturias. Europa Press. 28 January 2023. Retrieved 24 February 2023.
  18. ^ "IU y Más País se presentarán juntos el 28M como Convocatoria por Asturies". COPE (in Spanish). 30 March 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  19. ^ Villa, Octavio (1 October 2022). "Foro designa a Adrián Pumares candidato a la Presidencia del Principado". El Comercio (in Spanish). Retrieved 3 October 2022.
  20. ^ Fernández, Daniel (2022-12-17). "Ignacio Blanco no repetirá como candidato de Vox al Principado". El Comercio (in Spanish). Retrieved 2022-12-17.
  21. ^ "La arquitecta Carolina López será candidata de Vox a la Presidencia de Asturias". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 19 January 2023. Retrieved 21 January 2023.
  22. ^ "El debate de RTPA revitaliza la campaña". RTPA (in Spanish). 18 May 2023. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
  23. ^ "El debate electoral de TPA tuvo un share del 6,8% y una audiencia acumulada de 78.000 espectadores". Europa Press (in Spanish). 18 May 2023. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
  24. ^ a b "Actas de escrutinio y anexo al acta de escrutinio voto CERA. Distribución de votos recibidos por Consulados, correspondientes a las elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias, celebradas el 28 de mayo de 2023" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Principado de Asturias (in Spanish) (119): 75–84. 22 June 2023. ISSN 1579-7252.
  25. ^ a b Palicio, Marcos; A. Ardura, Juan (19 July 2023). "Barbón, investido presidente del Principado con los votos de la izquierda mientras "acelera" la negociación para un gobierno con IU". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 December 2023.
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