2022 Ontario general election
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124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 43.53% (![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Ontario general election was held on June 2, 2022, to elect Members of the Provincial Parliament to serve in the 43rd Parliament of Ontario.
The governing Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Doug Ford, were re-elected to a second majority government, winning 7 more seats than they had won in 2018. The NDP retained their status as the Official Opposition, despite losing seats and finishing third in the popular vote, while the Ontario Liberals finished 2nd in the popular vote, but only won 8 seats, a gain of one seat from 2018 but falling short of official party status. The Green Party retained the single seat they won in 2018 while the New Blue and Ontario Party failed to win a seat, both losing their lone sitting MPPs.
The election set a record for the lowest voter turnout in an Ontario provincial election, as only 43.53% of the people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record for low turnout of 48.2% in the 2011 election.[2]
Background
[edit]As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on or before the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3]
In the June 2018 Ontario general election, the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) led by Doug Ford won a strong majority government. The New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Andrea Horwath became the Official Opposition; this was the first time since 1990 they surpassed their third-place status. The governing Liberal Party led by Premier Kathleen Wynne was decimated, winning only 7 out of the 124 seats in the legislature and being reduced to third-place status. The Green Party won its first seat in history, with leader Mike Schreiner becoming its first Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP).
Wynne resigned as leader immediately after and MPP John Fraser succeeded her as interim leader; he held that post until March 2020, when Wynne's former minister of transportation, Steven Del Duca, became permanent leader of the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, Horwath and Schreiner both remained leader of their parties and had no intention of resigning.
By December 2019, polling showed that the Ford government was as unpopular as the previous Wynne government as a result of not cutting spending enough as promised.[editorializing][4] However, the Progressive Conservatives experienced a surge of support during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic; a Mainstreet Research poll in June 2020 showed the PCs at 42 percent, the Liberals at 28 percent, and the NDP at 23 percent.[5]
On October 5, 2020, Ontario MPPs voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[6][7] Before this vote, the Legislative Assembly of Ontario could have been dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario on a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggered a snap election (the former was extremely unlikely to work against the incumbent government with a majority).
In April 2021, the province experienced a major third wave of COVID-19 infections, and, after quickly reversing government health policies, such as opening and then abruptly closing restaurants, the government was criticized over their handling of COVID-19. This led to the PCs' support dipping, but remaining ahead of the Liberals and NDP.[8]
In late April 2022 – days before the election call – the Ford government released its budget, promising to implement it if the government was reelected. The budget recorded a deficit of $19.9 billion and promised substantial spending on infrastructure (including for their proposed Highway 413) and tax breaks for some workers and seniors.[9]
On May 3, 2022, Premier Doug Ford met with the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario to advise dissolution of the legislature and for writs of election be drawn up.[10]
Timeline
[edit]Party | 2018 | Gain/(loss) due to | 2022 | |||||
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Resignation from caucus | Resignation as MPP | Expulsion | Switching allegiance | Byelection hold | ||||
Progressive Conservative | 76 | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | 67 | ||
New Democratic | 40 | (1) | (1) | 38 | ||||
Liberal | 7 | (3) | 1 | 2 | 7 | |||
Green | 1 | 1 | ||||||
New Blue | N/A | 1 | 1 | |||||
Ontario Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Independent | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||||
Vacant | 0 | 3 | 3 | |||||
Total | 124 | – | (2) | – | – | 2 | 124 |
- ^ from cabinet and caucus due to allegations of sexual misconduct
- ^ from caucus after opposing the government's cuts to francophone services
- ^ later removed after alleged autism comment, and alleged lack of commitment to the caucus
- ^ accepted position at Massey College of the University of Toronto
- ^ to run in the 2019 Canadian federal election for its equivalent seat
- ^ from caucus after voting against Bill 195
- ^ co-created (alongside her husband) the New Blue Party, and officially joined soon after
- ^ from caucus for opposing COVID lockdown
- ^ to run in the 2021 Canadian federal election for its equivalent seat
- ^ from caucus due to refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19
- ^ from caucus following party accusations that she had misrepresented her COVID-19 vaccine status.
- ^ from caucus during vetting process for re-election for having joined an Islamophobic Facebook group
- ^ from caucus after losing nomination contest to be re-elected
2018
[edit]- June 7: The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC) under Doug Ford wins a majority government in the 42nd Ontario general election, with Andrea Horwath's New Democrats (NDP) forming the Official Opposition. After leading the party to the worst result in its history, outgoing Premier Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, but remains MPP for Don Valley West.[27]
- June 14: Ottawa South MPP John Fraser is named interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[28]
- June 29: Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford is sworn in as the 26th Premier of Ontario.[29]
- July 11: Wellington—Halton Hills MPP Ted Arnott, a Progressive Conservative, is elected Speaker by secret ballot.[30]
2020
[edit]- March 7: Former Vaughan MPP and cabinet minister Steven Del Duca is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[31]
- October 5: MPP's vote unanimously in favour of a motion introduced by Scarborough—Guildwood MPP Mitzie Hunter stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[6][7]
2021
[edit]- November 8: Randy Hillier announces that he will run under the banner of the People's Party of Canada's proposed Ontario wing, the Ontario First Party.[32][33][34] He later announced that he would not seek re-election.[35]
- December 14: Former Member of Parliament for Hastings—Lennox and Addington, Derek Sloan, announces that he will lead the Ontario Party in the upcoming election.[36][37]
2022
[edit]- May 3: Writs of the election were drawn up, dissolving the Legislature and officially starting the campaign.[38]
- May 10: First leaders' debate, organized by Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities.[39]
- May 16: Second leaders' debate, organized by Broadcast Consortium.[40]
- June 2: Election day.
Campaign period
[edit]Candidates not standing for reelection
[edit]26 MPPs chose not to campaign in the election:
Party slogans
[edit]Party | English | French (translation) |
---|---|---|
█ PC | "Get It Done."[62][63] | "Passer à l'action" ("Taking Action") |
█ New Democratic (NDP) | "Strong. Ready. Working for you."[64] | "Force. Détermination. Pour vous" ("Strength. Determination. For you.") |
█ Liberal | "The Choice is Yours"[65] | "C’est votre choix" ("It's Your Choice.") |
█ Green | "The Ontario You Want. The Leadership We Need."[66] | "L'Ontario que vous voulez. La direction qu'il nous faut." (identical to English slogan) |
█ New Blue | "Strength. Stability. Liberty. Good government."[67] | N/A (unofficial translation: "La force. La stabilité. La liberté. Un bon gouvernement.") |
█ Ontario Party | "Freedom, Family, & Faith"[68] | "Liberté, Famille, et Foi" (identical to English slogan) |
Debates
[edit]Date | Time (EDT) | Organiser(s) | Language | Participants | |||
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PC | NDP | Lib. | Green | ||||
10 May 2022 | 1:00pm – 2:30pm | Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities | English | Present Ford | Present Horwath | Present Del Duca | Present Schreiner |
16 May 2022 | 6:30pm – 8:00pm | Broadcast Consortium | English | Present Ford | Present Horwath | Present Del Duca | Present Schreiner |
17 May 2022 | 8:00pm – 9:00pm | Radio-Canada and TFO | French | Present Mulroney | Present Gélinas | Present Simard | Present Des Granges |
Issues
[edit]Summary
[edit]The 2022 Ontario Budget, entitled Ontario's Plan to Build, served as the platform of the governing PC Party. The main five themes it emphasized were: growing the clean energy economy with minerals from the Ring of Fire, building infrastructure including Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass and expanding GO service, supporting workers by funding more skilled trades programs, raising the minimum hourly wage to $15 and allowing universities to issue three-year degrees, lowering taxes by eliminating license plate stickers, eliminating tolls and reducing housing development fees and lastly to avoid future COVID-19 lockdowns by hiring more healthcare workers..[69]
The Official Opposition NDP's campaign focused on increased funding for social programs and government services, which would be paid for through higher taxes on businesses and individuals earning over $200,000 per year. Funding would go toward reducing class sizes, raising welfare payments and disability payments, subsidies for black, indigenous and LGBTQ+ entrepreneurs, hiring more healthcare and education staff and increased wages for public servants. The NDP also proposed to expand COVID-19 vaccine mandates, implement a mixed member proportional electoral system, to close down all privately owned long-term care facilities and to stop the construction of new highway projects.
Issue | PC[70][71] | NDP[72][73][74] | Liberal[75][76][77] | Green[78][79][80][81][82] | New Blue[83] | Ontario Party[84][85] |
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Budget |
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Business subsidies |
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COVID-19 |
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Education |
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Elections |
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Energy and Environment |
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Healthcare |
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Housing |
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Indigenous |
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Law Enforcement |
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Long-term care |
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Regulation |
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Social assistance |
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Taxation |
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Transportation |
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Unions |
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Endorsements
[edit]Type | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario Party |
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Media |
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Politicians and public figures | ||||||
Unions and business associations |
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Opinion polls
[edit]Campaign polls
[edit]Opinion polls during campaign period | |||||||||||||
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Polling firm | Last date of polling | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario | Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead |
Forum Research | June 1, 2022 | [p 1] | 40.3 | 23.2 | 24.5 | 6.5 | — | — | 5.5 | ±3.1% | 1,032 | IVR | 15.8 |
Research Co. | June 1, 2022 | [p 2] | 39 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3.8% | 659 | Online | 13 |
EKOS | June 1, 2022 | [p 3] | 37 | 23.5 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | — | 2 | +2.6% | 1,430 | IVR | 12.3 |
Abacus Data | June 1, 2022 | [p 4] | 40 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 4 | — | 3 | N/A | 1,043 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | June 1, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.9 | 22.8 | 24.2 | 9.4 | — | — | 4.7 | +2.2% | 2,034 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 14.7 |
Ipsos | May 31, 2022 | [p 6] | 41 | 25 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 4 | +2.2% | 2,501 | Telephone/Online | 16 |
Nanos Research | May 31, 2022 | [p 7] | 38.8 | 24.7 | 26.3 | 6.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | ±4.5% | 465 | Telephone/Online | 12.5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 31, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.4 | 23.9 | 26.2 | 9.2 | — | — | 5.2 | +2.1% | 2,086 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.2 |
Leger | May 30, 2022 | [p 8] | 40 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 1,334 | Online | 15 |
Innovative Research Group | May 30, 2022 | [p 9] | 34 | 24 | 29 | 8 | 3 | — | 2 | N/A | 637 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 30, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.3 | 22.5 | 26.8 | 6.4 | — | — | 5.1 | +2.1% | 2,089 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 12.5 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 29, 2022 | [p 10] | 39 | 24 | 26 | 5 | — | — | 6 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | May 29, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.6 | 23.5 | 27.2 | 6.8 | — | — | 5.8 | +2.2% | 1,921 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.4 |
Counsel | May 28, 2022 | [p 11] | 39.6 | 22.5 | 25.1 | 7.1 | — | — | 5.7 | +2% | 2,411 | Online | 14.5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 28, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.3 | 23.2 | 26.3 | 7.1 | — | — | 6.1 | +2.3% | 1,789 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 11 |
Mainstreet Research | May 27, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.1 | 20.8 | 26.5 | 7.8 | — | — | 5.8 | +2.4% | 1,694 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 12.6 |
Innovative Research Group | May 27, 2022 | [p 12] | 40 | 21 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 492 | Telephone | 12 |
Mainstreet Research | May 26, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.3 | 21.6 | 26.9 | 7.6 | — | — | 5.7 | +2.4% | 1,704 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 11.4 |
Angus Reid | May 25, 2022 | [p 13] | 38 | 24 | 26 | 7 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 1,331 | Online | 12 |
EKOS | May 25, 2022 | [p 14] | 33.7 | 23.8 | 26.9 | 8 | 4.7 | — | 3 | +3.1% | 1,017 | IVR | 6.8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 25, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 23.5 | 26.1 | 8.5 | — | — | 5.9 | +2.4% | 1,622 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.9 |
Mainstreet Research | May 24, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.3 | 23.1 | 27.2 | 8 | — | — | 6.4 | +2.4% | 1,724 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8.1 |
Leger | May 23, 2022 | [p 15] | 38 | 24 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 1,324 | Online | 12 |
Innovative Research Group | May 23, 2022 | [p 16] | 35 | 23 | 30 | 9 | — | — | 4 | N/A | 439 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 23, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.4 | 24.2 | 25.2 | 7.8 | — | — | 7.4 | +2.4% | 1,696 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.2 |
Nanos Research | May 22, 2022 | [p 17] | 37.3 | 23.2 | 28 | 6.3 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | ±4.5% | 479 | Telephone/Online | 9.3 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 22, 2022 | [p 18] | 36 | 24 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 6 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 8 |
EKOS | May 22, 2022 | [p 19] | 34.5 | 24.1 | 26.7 | 6.6 | 5.3 | — | 2.7 | +3.2% | 948 | IVR | 7.8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 22, 2022 | [p 5] | 35 | 23.8 | 25.1 | 8.2 | — | — | 7.9 | +2.4% | 1,709 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.9 |
Abacus Data | May 21, 2022 | [p 20] | 36 | 24 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 8 | N/A | 1,228 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 21, 2022 | [p 5] | 34.4 | 25.1 | 26.7 | 7.2 | — | — | 6.5 | +2.4% | 1,679 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 7.7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 20, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.5 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 6.5 | — | — | 6.3 | +2.4% | 1,734 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.4 |
Pollara | May 19, 2022 | [p 21] | 40 | 21 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 4 | +2.5% | 1,514 | Telephone | 13 |
Ipsos | May 19, 2022 | [p 22] | 38 | 23 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 5 | +2.9% | 1,501 | Telephone/Online | 10 |
Innovative Research Group | May 19, 2022 | [p 23] | 36 | 26 | 28 | 8 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 606 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 19, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.9 | 24.7 | 26.2 | 5.1 | — | — | 7.2 | +2.4% | 1,686 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.7 |
Counsel | May 18, 2022 | [p 24] | 36.9 | 24.3 | 27.5 | 6.1 | — | — | 5.3 | +2.1% | 2,206 | Online | 9.4 |
Mainstreet Research | May 18, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.2 | 23.4 | 24.8 | 6.7 | — | — | 7.8 | +2.4% | 1,720 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 12.8 |
Nanos Research | May 17, 2022 | [p 25] | 36.1 | 19.8 | 29.3 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | ±4.5% | 484 | Telephone/Online | 6.8 |
Research Co. | May 17, 2022 | [p 26] | 34 | 23 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4% | 602 | Online | 5 |
EKOS | May 17, 2022 | [p 19] | 40.7 | 23.9 | 24.3 | 5.1 | — | — | 6.1 | +4% | 593 | IVR | 16.4 |
Mainstreet Research | May 17, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.8 | 23.1 | 27.2 | 5.6 | — | — | 7.3 | +2.4% | 1,675 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.6 |
Innovative Research Group | May 16, 2022 | [p 27] | 36 | 23 | 31 | 7 | — | — | 4 | N/A | 603 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 16, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.9 | 22.8 | 27.7 | 4.9 | — | — | 6.8 | +2.4% | 1,675 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.2 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 15, 2022 | [p 28] | 37 | 23 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 9 |
Leger | May 15, 2022 | [p 29] | 37 | 23 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | N/A | 830 | Online | 9 |
Abacus Data | May 15, 2022 | [p 30] | 35 | 24 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 7 | N/A | 798 | Online | 7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 15, 2022 | [p 5] | 35.5 | 24.8 | 26.8 | 4.4 | — | — | 8.5 | +2.3% | 1,792 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8.7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 14, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 25.4 | 27.6 | 4.1 | — | — | 7 | +2.3% | 1,764 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8.4 |
Mainstreet Research | May 13, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 24.4 | 26.8 | 5.2 | — | — | 7.5 | +2.3% | 1,773 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.2 |
Mainstreet Research | May 12, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.6 | 22.6 | 28.6 | 5.2 | — | — | 7 | +2.4% | 1,639 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 11, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.8 | 21.1 | 28.1 | 5.4 | — | — | 6.6 | +2.4% | 1,673 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 10.7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 10, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.0 | 22.3 | 27.1 | 4.6 | — | — | 7 | +2.4% | 1,639 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 11.9 |
Mainstreet Research | May 9, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.5 | 23.5 | 29 | 4.9 | — | — | 6.1 | +2.5% | 1,639 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 7.5 |
Abacus Data | May 9, 2022 | [p 31] | 38 | 22 | 29 | 5 | — | — | 7 | N/A | 1,208 | Online | 9 |
Innovative Research Group | May 9, 2022 | [p 32] | 40 | 24 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 600 | Online | 12 |
EKOS | May 9, 2022 | [p 33] | 33.9 | 25.4 | 29.3 | 5.1 | — | — | 6.3 | +3.1% | 1,000 | IVR | 4.6 |
Nanos Research | May 8, 2022 | [p 34] | 35.4 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | ±4.4% | 500 | Telephone/Online | 5.0 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 8, 2022 | [p 35] | 39 | 24 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 12 |
Leger | May 8, 2022 | [p 36] | 39 | 25 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | N/A | 819 | Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | May 8, 2022 | [p 5] | 37 | 23 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 5 | +2.5% | 1,515 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 7 |
Mainstreet Research | May 7, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.3 | 24.2 | 30.2 | 4.6 | — | — | 4.6 | +2.5% | 1,496 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 6.1 |
Mainstreet Research | May 6, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.3 | 24.5 | 29.1 | 4 | — | — | 4 | +2.5% | 1,532 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.2 |
Mainstreet Research | May 5, 2022 | [p 5] | 37.4 | 25.7 | 28.1 | 4.6 | — | — | 4.2 | ±2.7% | 1,335 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.3 |
Forum Research | May 4, 2022 | [p 37] | 37 | 26 | 29 | 4 | — | — | 4 | ±3% | 1,541 | IVR | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 4, 2022 | [p 5] | 36.7 | 25.1 | 27.1 | 5.7 | — | — | 5.3 | ±2.7% | 1,335 (1/3) | IVR (rolling) | 9.6 |
Pre-campaign polls
[edit]Opinion polling before campaign period began | |||||||||||||
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Polling firm | Last date of polling | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario | Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead |
Nanos Research | May 2, 2022 | [p 38] | 36.9 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | ±4.4% | 500 | Telephone/Online | 6.5 |
Innovative Research Group | May 2, 2022 | [p 39] | 37 | 24 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 1,409 | Online | 8 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | May 1, 2022 | [p 40] | 35 | 24 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 6 | N/A | 1,001 | Online | 7 |
Ipsos | May 1, 2022 | [p 41] | 39 | 25 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 5 | ±2.9% | 1,501 | Telephone/Online | 13 |
Mainstreet Research | April 27, 2022 | [p 5] | 38.1 | 18.1 | 30.4 | 5.1 | — | — | 8.3 | ±2.6% | 1,422 | IVR | 7.7 |
Earnscliffe/Leger | April 24, 2022 | [p 42] | 38 | 25 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 10 |
Abacus Data | April 19, 2022 | [p 43] | 36 | 23 | 32 | 6 | — | — | 4 | ±2.1% | 1,500 | Online | 4 |
Mainstreet Research | April 19, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.6 | 21.2 | 25.4 | 5.6 | — | — | 7.6 | ±2.8% | 1,211 | IVR | 14.2 |
Ipsos | April 14, 2022 | [p 44] | 35 | 23 | 32 | 5 | — | — | 5 | ±3.5% | 1,001 | Online | 3 |
Mainstreet Research | April 12, 2022 | [p 5] | 36 | 24 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 6 | ±2.8% | 1239 | IVR | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | April 6, 2022 | [p 5] | 39.2 | 24.1 | 25.8 | 3.4 | — | — | 7.5 | ±2.7% | 1,289 | IVR | 13.4 |
Mainstreet Research | March 31, 2022 | [p 45] | 36 | 22 | 31 | 4 | — | — | 7 | ±2.8% | 1,252 | IVR | 5 |
Leger | March 28, 2022 | [p 46] | 39 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 5 | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 14 |
Angus Reid | March 15, 2022 | [p 47] | 37 | 29 | 25 | 4 | — | — | 5 | ±3% | 1,063 | Online | 8 |
Ipsos | March 15, 2022 | [p 48] | 38 | 24 | 28 | 4 | — | — | 5 | ±3.8% | 850 | Online | 10 |
Mainstreet Research | March 13, 2022 | [p 49] | 33.9 | 25.7 | 27.8 | 5 | — | — | 7.6 | ±3% | 1,026 | IVR | 6.1 |
Leger | February 27, 2022 | [p 50] | 39 | 27 | 27 | 3 | 2 | — | 2[a] | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 12 |
Mainstreet Research | January 25, 2022 | [p 51] | 34.6 | 22.4 | 27.3 | 3.5 | — | — | 12.3 | ±3% | 882 | IVR | 7.3 |
Leger | January 24, 2022 | [p 52] | 37 | 25 | 26 | 7 | 3 | — | 5[b] | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 11 |
Counsel | January 23, 2022 | [p 53] | 34.9 | 30.5 | 24.2 | 4.4 | — | — | 6 | ±2.1% | 2,273 | Online | 4.4 |
EKOS | January 17, 2022 | [p 54] | 34.8 | 26.6 | 26.3 | 4.9 | — | — | 7.5 | ±3.5% | 844 | IVR | 8.2 |
Abacus Data | January 12, 2022 | [p 55] | 37 | 25 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 2.5 | ±3.1% | 1,210 | Online | 9 |
Angus Reid | January 12, 2022 | [p 56] | 33 | 36 | 19 | 4 | — | — | 8 | N/A | 909 | Online | 3 |
Innovative Research Group | January 11, 2022 | [p 57] | 35 | 22 | 36 | 5 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 428 | Online | 1 |
Mainstreet Research | January 7, 2022 | [p 58] | 30.6 | 27.0 | 27.9 | 5.5 | — | — | 9.0 | ±2.7% | 1,246 | IVR | 2.7 |
December 14, 2021 | Derek Sloan announced as the Leader of the Ontario Party | ||||||||||||
Leger | December 13, 2021 | [p 59] | 38 | 28 | 25 | 5 | 2 | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 10 |
EKOS | November 25, 2021 | [p 60] | 32.8 | 23.1 | 28.3 | 5.2 | — | — | 10.5 | ±4.1% | 569 | IVR | 4.5 |
Innovative Research Group | November 17, 2021 | [p 61] | 34.8 | 27 | 32.6 | 3.4 | — | — | 2.2 | N/A | 1,000 | Online | 2.2 |
Leger | November 14, 2021 | [p 62] | 34 | 26 | 31 | 6 | 2 | — | 1 | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 3 |
Leger | October 10, 2021 | [p 63] | 35 | 25 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 5 | ±3.1% | 1,003 | Online | 5 |
Angus Reid | October 3, 2021 | [p 64] | 34 | 32 | 25 | 4 | — | — | 5 | N/A | 910 | Online | 2 |
Angus Reid | June 7, 2021 | [p 65] | 37 | 33 | 22 | 6 | — | — | 3 | ±2% | 791 | Online | 4 |
Leger | May 23, 2021 | [p 66] | 34 | 25 | 26 | 9 | — | — | — | ±3.1% | 1,001 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | May 16, 2021 | [p 67] | 32.7 | 28.2 | 26.9 | 6.3 | — | — | 5.9 | ±3% | 958 | IVR | 4.5 |
Campaign Research | May 8, 2021 | [p 68] | 36 | 25 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 4 | ±2% | 2,009 | Online | 8 |
Innovative Research Group | May 4, 2021 | [p 69] | 32 | 22 | 36 | 8 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 481 | Online | 4 |
Abacus Data | April 21, 2021 | [p 70] | 34 | 23 | 35 | 5 | — | — | 2 | ±3.1% | 1,007 | Online | 1 |
Innovative Research Group | April 20, 2021 | [p 71] | 30 | 26 | 35 | 8 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 800 | Online | 5 |
Abacus Data | April 14, 2021 | [p 72] | 34 | 23 | 34 | 5 | — | — | 4 | ±3.5% | 817 | Online | 0 |
Innovative Research Group | April 13, 2021 | [p 73] | 32 | 24 | 33 | 8 | — | — | 2 | N/A | 704 | Online | 1 |
EKOS | April 12, 2021 | [p 74] | 34.6 | 23.5 | 29.9 | 8.9 | — | — | 3 | ±2.8% | 1,204 | IVR | 4.7 |
Campaign Research | April 6, 2021 | [p 75] | 41 | 22 | 24 | 10 | — | — | 2 | ±2.3% | 1,886 | Online | 17 |
Leger | March 22, 2021 | [p 76] | 38 | 28 | 23 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,002 | Online | 10 |
Campaign Research | March 11, 2021 | [p 77] | 43 | 25 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 3 | ±2.7% | 1,344 | Online | 18 |
Mainstreet Research | February 16, 2021 | [p 78] | 43 | 22 | 25 | 6 | — | — | 4 | ±3.08% | 1,011 | IVR | 18 |
Campaign Research | January 31, 2021 | [p 79] | 44 | 25 | 21 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±2.6% | 1,427 | Online | 19 |
Abacus Data | January 12, 2021 | [p 80] | 34 | 25 | 29 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±3.48% | 793 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | December 5, 2020 | [p 81] | 46.2 | 23.4 | 19.9 | 6.2 | — | — | 4.3 | ±2.94% | 1,014 | IVR | 22.8 |
Campaign Research | December 3, 2020 | [p 82] | 45 | 20 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 5 | ±3% | 1,001 | Online | 21 |
Angus Reid | November 30, 2020 | [p 83] | 42 | 28 | 22 | 5 | — | — | 3 | N/A | 1,049 | Online | 14 |
Campaign Research | November 2, 2020 | [p 84] | 48 | 21 | 23 | 7 | — | — | 1 | ±3% | 1,118 | Online | 25 |
Abacus Data | October 30, 2020 | [p 85] | 36 | 25 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 7 |
October 12, 2020 | Jim Karahalios forms the New Blue Party | ||||||||||||
Abacus Data | October 12, 2020 | [p 86] | 36 | 29 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 2 | ±3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 7 |
Campaign Research | October 2, 2020 | [p 87] | 46 | 24 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 2 | ±3% | 1,017 | Online | 22 |
Campaign Research | September 3, 2020 | [p 88] | 48 | 22 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 2 | ±3% | 1,129 | Online | 24 |
Angus Reid | September 1, 2020 | [p 89] | 45 | 28 | 22 | 4 | — | — | 1 | ±3% | 1,026 | Online | 17 |
Campaign Research | August 13, 2020 | [p 90] | 41 | 23 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 3 | ±2% | 2,013 | Online | 15 |
Innovative Research Group | July 20, 2020 | [p 91] | 36 | 18 | 37 | 8 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 974 | Online | 1 |
Campaign Research | July 10, 2020 | [p 92] | 45 | 20 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 1 | ±3% | 1,395 | Online | 18 |
Innovative Research Group | June 23, 2020 | [p 93] | 31 | 21 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 838 | Online | 8 |
Mainstreet Research | June 7, 2020 | [p 94] | 41.8 | 23.0 | 27.7 | 5.5 | — | — | 2.0 | ±3% | 1,068 | IVR | 14.1 |
Campaign Research | June 2, 2020 | [p 95] | 44 | 22 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 2 | ±2.5% | 1,512 | Online | 17 |
Innovative Research Group | June 1, 2020 | [p 96] | 33 | 20 | 38 | 9 | — | — | 0 | N/A | 698 | Online | 5 |
Angus Reid | May 24, 2020 | [p 97] | 43 | 26 | 25 | 6 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 1,061 | Online | 17 |
Abacus Data | May 22, 2020 | [p 98] | 36 | 19 | 38 | 5 | — | — | 2 | ±4.1% | 597 | Online | 2 |
Innovative Research Group | May 5, 2020 | [p 99] | 34 | 18 | 39 | 7 | — | — | 1 | N/A | 791 | Online | 5 |
EKOS | March 26, 2020 | [p 100] | 31.5 | 17.9 | 40.4 | 7.1 | — | — | 3.1 | ±3.5% | 774 | IVR | 8.9 |
Mainstreet Research | March 20, 2020 | [p 101] | 33.1 | 23.2 | 33.0 | 6.9 | — | — | 3.8 | ±2.73% | 1,017 | IVR | 0.1 |
7 March 2020 | Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
Campaign Research | March 5, 2020 | [p 102] | 32 | 28 | 28 | 10 | — | — | 2 | ±2.9% | 1,144 | Online | 4 |
Angus Reid | February 28, 2020 | [p 103] | 36 | 31 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 1 | ±3.0% | 1,051 | Online | 5 |
Campaign Research | February 26, 2020 | [p 104] | 32 | 28 | 29 | 9 | — | — | 3 | ±3.1% | 1,003 | Online | 3 |
Campaign Research | February 9, 2020 | [p 105] | 30 | 26 | 30 | 11 | — | — | 3 | ±2.5% | 1,536 | Online | 0 |
EKOS | January 19, 2020 | [p 106] | 31.1 | 21.2 | 36.2 | 9.1 | — | — | 2.3 | ±3.9% | 634 | IVR | 5.1 |
Pollara | January 11, 2020 | [p 107] | 29 | 27 | 33 | 9 | — | — | 2 | ±2.1% | 2,198 | Online | 4 |
EKOS | December 10, 2019 | [p 108] | 29.9 | 24.4 | 32.4 | 9.4 | — | — | 3.9 | ±3.4% | 811 | IVR | 2.5 |
Campaign Research | September 9, 2019 | [p 109] | 32 | 27 | 28 | 11 | — | — | 2 | ±3.17% | 957 | Online | 4 |
Corbett Communications | August 16, 2019 | [p 110] | 30 | 28 | 30 | 11 | — | — | 2 | ±3.0% | 1,099 | Online | 0 |
Corbett Communications | July 10, 2019 | [p 111] | 28 | 26 | 28 | 15 | — | — | 3 | ±3.0% | 936 | Online | 0 |
Corbett Communications | June 6, 2019 | [p 112] | 32 | 27 | 26 | 13 | — | — | 1 | ±3.0% | 1,555 | Online | 5 |
Mainstreet Research | May 22, 2019 | [p 113] | 22.4 | 24.2 | 39.9 | 11.7 | — | — | 1.8 | ±3.1% | 996 | IVR | 15.7 |
Ipsos | May 21, 2019 | [p 114] | 30 | 29 | 32 | — | — | — | 10 | ±3.5% | 1,000 | Online | 2 |
Corbett Communications | May 3, 2019 | [p 115] | 35 | 25 | 27 | 12 | — | — | 1 | ±2.4% | 1,836 | Online | 8 |
Pollara | May 1, 2019 | [p 116] | 30 | 31 | 26 | 11 | — | — | 1 | ±2.5% | 1,527 | Online | 1 |
Mainstreet Research | March 22, 2019 | [p 117] | 34.4 | 26.6 | 26.0 | 9.4 | — | — | 3.6 | ±2.73% | 1,290 | IVR | 7.8 |
Innovative Research Group | January 24, 2019 | [p 118] | 33 | 23 | 36 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 751 | Online | 3 | |
Mainstreet Research | January 17, 2019 | [p 119] | 41.4 | 27.0 | 22.6 | 7.0 | — | — | 2.2 | ±2.92% | 1,127 | IVR | 14.4 |
EKOS | December 3, 2018 | [p 120] | 34.3 | 26.1 | 28.0 | 9.4 | — | — | 2.3 | ±3.1% | 1,025 | IVR | 6.3 |
Campaign Research | November 9, 2018 | [p 121] | 34 | 25 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 2 | ±2.3% | 1,830 | Online | 2 |
Mainstreet Research | November 7, 2018 | [p 122] | 42.2 | 26.5 | 21.3 | 6.4 | — | — | 3.5 | ±2.79% | 1,229 | IVR | 15.7 |
Innovative Research Group | October 28, 2018 | [p 123] | 35 | 25 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 1,628 | Online | 3 | |
Abacus Data | October 1, 2018 | [p 124] | 36 | 29 | 24 | 8 | — | — | 3 | 1,500 | Online | 7 | |
Mainstreet Research | July 17, 2018 | [p 125] | 41.7 | 27.8 | 21.3 | 6.7 | — | — | 2.5 | ±2.27% | 1,861 | IVR | 13.9 |
29 June 2018 | Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario | ||||||||||||
Innovative Research Group | June 21, 2018 | [p 118] | 37 | 36 | 19 | 7 | — | — | 2 | ±4.0% | 607 | Telephone | 1 |
14 June 2018 | John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
7 June 2018 | Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party | ||||||||||||
2018 election | June 7, 2018 | — | 40.50 | 33.56 | 19.59 | 4.60 | — | 0.04 | 1.74 | — | 5,744,860 | — | 6.94 |
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Source | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling type | Lead | |||||||
PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | New Blue | Ontario | Other |
Notes
- ^ 1% for Ontario First.
- ^ 2% for Ontario First.
Results
[edit]![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/2022_Ontario_Gallagher_Index.svg/220px-2022_Ontario_Gallagher_Index.svg.png)
Despite only posting a marginal increase in the popular vote, the Progressive Conservative Party won with an increased parliamentary majority.[170]
PC gains came primarily at the expense of the New Democratic Party, who lost significant vote share primarily to the Liberal Party. Nevertheless, the NDP maintained their role as official opposition by a large margin. Although she won her seat, Andrea Horwath resigned as leader of the NDP.[171]
Despite edging out the NDP for second place in the popular vote, the Liberals only gained one seat and failed to regain official party status. After failing to win in his own riding, Liberal leader Steven Del Duca also announced his resignation as party leader.[172]
The only two candidates outside the three largest parties to be elected were Green Party leader Mike Schreiner and independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady, who prior to the election was the executive assistant to the retiring PC MPP in her riding.
As of 19:30 GMT on 3 June, the full unofficial results are as follows:[173][174]
83 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Progressive Conservative | New Democratic | Liberal | G | I |
Party | Votes | Seats | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservative | 1,912,057 | ![]() | 83 / 124 (67%) | ||
New Democratic | 1,111,923 | ![]() | 31 / 124 (25%) | ||
Liberal | 1,116,961 | ![]() | 8 / 124 (6%) | ||
Green | 279,152 | ![]() | 1 / 124 (0.8%) | ||
Independent[a 1] | 25,334 | ![]() | 1 / 124 (0.8%) |
- ^ Bobbi Ann Brady was elected for Haldimand—Norfolk with 15,921 votes, or 0.34% of the vote.
Synopsis of results
[edit]Results by riding - 2022 Ontario general election[a 1][a 2][a 3] | |||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Riding | 2018 | Winning party | Turnout [a 4][a 5] | Votes[a 6] | |||||||||||||||||||
Party | Votes | Share | Margin # | Margin % | PC | NDP | Lib | Green | NB | Ont | Ind | Other | Total | ||||||||||
Ajax | PC | PC | 15,336 | 40.69% | 1,775 | 4.71% | 39.96% | 15,336 | 6,291 | 13,561 | 1,305 | 625 | 330 | 239 | – | 37,687 | |||||||
Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP | NDP | 11,252 | 45.93% | 2,560 | 10.45% | 42.47% | 8,692 | 11,252 | 2,133 | 764 | 1,302 | 356 | – | – | 24,499 | |||||||
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | PC | PC | 17,340 | 53.26% | 7,340 | 22.55% | 38.19% | 17,340 | 2,501 | 10,000 | 1,268 | 649 | 732 | – | 69 | 32,559 | |||||||
Barrie—Innisfil | PC | PC | 18,225 | 50.25% | 11,283 | 31.11% | 39.61% | 18,225 | 6,942 | 6,564 | 2,291 | 1,220 | 764 | 147 | 119 | 36,272 | |||||||
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | PC | PC | 16,631 | 42.10% | 296 | 0.75% | 46.75% | 16,631 | 3,093 | 16,335 | 1,699 | 1,104 | 638 | – | – | 39,500 | |||||||
Bay of Quinte | PC | PC | 21,381 | 49.30% | 12,308 | 28.38% | 45.91% | 21,381 | 9,073 | 8,003 | 2,719 | 1,128 | 1,062 | – | – | 43,366 | |||||||
Beaches—East York | NDP | Lib | 14,398 | 35.42% | 898 | 2.21% | 49.58% | 7,536 | 13,500 | 14,398 | 4,154 | 441 | 310 | – | 309 | 40,648 | |||||||
Brampton Centre | NDP | PC | 10,119 | 41.36% | 3,597 | 14.70% | 36.67% | 10,119 | 6,522 | 6,119 | 882 | 821 | – | – | – | 24,463 | |||||||
Brampton East | NDP | PC | 12,869 | 44.32% | 3,852 | 13.27% | 36.35% | 12,869 | 9,017 | 6,131 | 557 | 295 | 167 | – | – | 29,036 | |||||||
Brampton North | NDP | PC | 13,509 | 44.99% | 4,870 | 16.22% | 38.46% | 13,509 | 5,949 | 8,639 | 895 | 610 | 423 | – | – | 30,025 | |||||||
Brampton South | PC | PC | 12,980 | 45.38% | 5,023 | 17.56% | 35.81% | 12,980 | 5,475 | 7,957 | 1,028 | 974 | – | – | 188 | 28,602 | |||||||
Brampton West | PC | PC | 14,751 | 47.84% | 6,662 | 21.60% | 34.19% | 14,751 | 6,398 | 8,089 | 854 | 511 | 233 | – | – | 30,836 | |||||||
Brantford—Brant | PC | PC | 20,738 | 44.17% | 7,455 | 15.88% | 42.05% | 20,738 | 13,283 | 6,083 | 3,174 | 2,089 | 640 | 157 | 789 | 46,953 | |||||||
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PC | PC | 20,304 | 48.56% | 11,805 | 28.23% | 47.02% | 20,304 | 5,817 | 8,499 | 3,702 | 1,130 | 1,680 | 201 | 478 | 41,811 | |||||||
Burlington | PC | PC | 22,348 | 42.55% | 6,896 | 13.13% | 51.63% | 22,348 | 9,262 | 15,452 | 3,515 | 1,310 | 633 | – | – | 52,520 | |||||||
Cambridge | PC | PC | 14,590 | 37.03% | 5,845 | 14.83% | 43.22% | 14,590 | 8,745 | 8,155 | 3,537 | 4,374 | – | – | – | 39,401 | |||||||
Carleton | PC | PC | 22,295 | 48.15% | 9,843 | 21.26% | 48.79% | 22,295 | 7,256 | 12,452 | 2,537 | 1,037 | 494 | – | 235 | 46,306 | |||||||
Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PC | PC | 17,522 | 47.52% | 6,359 | 17.25% | 44.87% | 17,522 | 11,163 | – | 1,244 | 1,463 | 5,478 | – | – | 36,870 | |||||||
Davenport | NDP | NDP | 20,242 | 57.06% | 13,427 | 37.85% | 43.30% | 4,994 | 20,242 | 6,815 | 1,710 | 395 | 400 | 216 | 701 | 35,473 | |||||||
Don Valley East | Lib | Lib | 12,313 | 43.86% | 3,275 | 11.66% | 42.37% | 9,038 | 4,355 | 12,313 | 1,139 | 323 | 295 | 192 | 421 | 28,076 | |||||||
Don Valley North | PC | PC | 15,041 | 47.41% | 3,356 | 10.58% | 40.76% | 15,041 | 3,133 | 11,685 | 1,179 | 690 | – | – | – | 31,728 | |||||||
Don Valley West | Lib | Lib | 16,177 | 44.01% | 1,969 | 5.36% | 49.36% | 14,208 | 3,392 | 16,177 | 2,025 | 421 | 167 | 85 | 285 | 36,760 | |||||||
Dufferin—Caledon | PC | PC | 22,911 | 49.67% | 14,223 | 30.86% | 42.07% | 22,911 | 4,967 | 8,678 | 6,518 | 2,280 | 589 | – | 184 | 46,127 | |||||||
Durham | PC | PC | 22,614 | 45.85% | 10,338 | 20.96% | 43.71% | 22,614 | 9,168 | 12,276 | 1,981 | 1,898 | 686 | 697 | – | 49,320 | |||||||
Eglinton—Lawrence | PC | PC | 16,605 | 42.30% | 524 | 1.33% | 46.72% | 16,605 | 3,801 | 16,081 | 1,513 | 393 | 268 | 216 | 381 | 39,258 | |||||||
Elgin—Middlesex—London | PC | PC | 22,369 | 51.08% | 14,396 | 32.87% | 44.78% | 22,369 | 7,973 | 7,618 | 2,043 | 2,238 | 1,092 | – | 458 | 43,791 | |||||||
Essex | NDP | PC | 24,926 | 51.10% | 11,133 | 22.82% | 47.21% | 24,926 | 13,793 | 4,186 | 989 | 1,293 | 3,322 | – | 271 | 48,780 | |||||||
Etobicoke Centre | PC | PC | 22,035 | 48.59% | 6,592 | 14.54% | 48.55% | 22,035 | 3,906 | 15,443 | 2,036 | 1,117 | 530 | – | 284 | 45,351 | |||||||
Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PC | PC | 17,978 | 37.48% | 842 | 1.76% | 45.28% | 17,978 | 8,595 | 17,136 | 2,278 | 1,612 | – | 186 | 181 | 47,966 | |||||||
Etobicoke North | PC | PC | 13,934 | 55.51% | 8,050 | 32.07% | 33.98% | 13,934 | 3,290 | 5,884 | 690 | 391 | 782 | – | 132 | 25,103 | |||||||
Flamborough—Glanbrook | PC | PC | 20,306 | 46.20% | 10,311 | 23.46% | 46.91% | 20,306 | 9,995 | 8,970 | 2,392 | 1,492 | 710 | – | 86 | 43,951 | |||||||
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | PC | PC | 18,661 | 42.05% | 1,132 | 2.55% | 45.56% | 18,661 | 3,789 | 17,529 | 1,670 | 1,924 | 809 | – | – | 44,382 | |||||||
Guelph | Grn | Grn | 29,752 | 54.45% | 18,603 | 34.05% | 49.39% | 11,149 | 4,402 | 7,263 | 29,752 | 1,619 | – | – | 453 | 54,638 | |||||||
Haldimand—Norfolk | PC | Ind | 15,921 | 35.05% | 2,070 | 4.56% | 48.88% | 13,851 | 6,311 | 3,329 | 1,841 | 1,454 | 2,353 | 16,020 | 268 | 45,427 | |||||||
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PC | PC | 25,594 | 52.31% | 17,902 | 36.59% | 48.14% | 25,594 | 7,692 | 6,590 | 3,695 | 888 | 3,949 | – | 518 | 48,926 | |||||||
Hamilton Centre | NDP | NDP | 16,690 | 57.26% | 11,890 | 40.79% | 37.94% | 4,800 | 16,690 | 3,799 | 2,554 | 483 | 451 | 145 | 225 | 29,147 | |||||||
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP | PC | 12,166 | 34.60% | 2,552 | 7.26% | 40.95% | 12,166 | 9,614 | 7,411 | 1,740 | 693 | 1,052 | 2,411 | 79 | 35,166 | |||||||
Hamilton Mountain | NDP | NDP | 15,250 | 44.81% | 5,039 | 14.81% | 41.49% | 10,211 | 15,250 | 5,300 | 1,913 | 770 | 590 | – | – | 34,034 | |||||||
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | NDP | NDP | 18,197 | 40.42% | 3,345 | 7.43% | 48.45% | 14,852 | 18,197 | 8,184 | 2,416 | 904 | 464 | – | – | 45,017 | |||||||
Hastings—Lennox and Addington | PC | PC | 18,156 | 47.55% | 10,898 | 28.54% | 47.12% | 18,156 | 7,258 | 7,102 | 1,732 | 1,129 | 2,807 | – | – | 38,184 | |||||||
Humber River—Black Creek | NDP | NDP | 7,959 | 34.49% | 883 | 3.83% | 33.15% | 6,865 | 7,959 | 7,076 | 430 | 281 | 357 | 110 | – | 23,078 | |||||||
Huron—Bruce | PC | PC | 24,369 | 51.97% | 15,594 | 33.26% | 54.16% | 24,369 | 7,679 | 8,775 | 1,922 | 3,384 | 474 | 212 | 77 | 46,892 | |||||||
Kanata—Carleton | PC | PC | 19,871 | 43.61% | 8,826 | 19.37% | 51.38% | 19,871 | 11,045 | 10,672 | 2,503 | 1,085 | 393 | – | – | 45,569 | |||||||
Kenora—Rainy River | PC | PC | 9,567 | 59.57% | 6,368 | 39.65% | 40.21% | 9,567 | 3,199 | 1,823 | 608 | 393 | 276 | 95 | 98 | 16,059 | |||||||
Kiiwetinoong | NDP | NDP | 2,742 | 57.57% | 1,316 | 27.63% | 30.40% | 1,426 | 2,742 | 281 | 158 | 156 | – | – | – | 4,763 | |||||||
King—Vaughan | PC | PC | 23,439 | 57.31% | 11,781 | 28.81% | 39.79% | 23,439 | 2,840 | 11,658 | 1,104 | 1,400 | 309 | – | 147 | 40,897 | |||||||
Kingston and the Islands | NDP | Lib | 18,360 | 37.66% | 3,174 | 6.51% | 46.84% | 11,973 | 15,186 | 18,360 | 1,601 | 429 | 827 | 130 | 243 | 48,749 | |||||||
Kitchener Centre | NDP | NDP | 15,789 | 40.59% | 5,413 | 13.91% | 46.21% | 10,376 | 15,789 | 5,728 | 4,980 | 2,029 | – | – | – | 38,902 | |||||||
Kitchener—Conestoga | PC | PC | 15,045 | 40.03% | 4,194 | 11.16% | 48.88% | 15,045 | 10,851 | 6,590 | 2,315 | 2,223 | 501 | – | 64 | 37,589 | |||||||
Kitchener South—Hespeler | PC | PC | 13,768 | 39.91% | 4,650 | 13.48% | 42.16% | 13,768 | 9,118 | 5,629 | 3,993 | 1,436 | 552 | – | – | 34,496 | |||||||
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PC | PC | 24,933 | 58.81% | 16,946 | 39.97% | 47.28% | 24,933 | 7,987 | 4,063 | 1,688 | 2,701 | 727 | – | 300 | 42,399 | |||||||
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | PC | PC | 22,142 | 50.11% | 12,996 | 29.41% | 50.02% | 22,142 | 9,146 | 6,962 | 2,982 | 753 | 1,663 | 213 | 324 | 44,185 | |||||||
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | PC | PC | 24,657 | 57.69% | 16,911 | 39.56% | 49.18% | 24,657 | 5,799 | 7,746 | 2,583 | 944 | 536 | – | 479 | 42,744 | |||||||
London—Fanshawe | NDP | NDP | 16,123 | 47.06% | 4,899 | 14.30% | 36.56% | 11,224 | 16,123 | 3,553 | 1,200 | 1,072 | 539 | – | 549 | 34,260 | |||||||
London North Centre | NDP | NDP | 17,082 | 39.65% | 4,031 | 9.36% | 42.13% | 13,051 | 17,082 | 9,013 | 2,064 | 1,200 | 368 | – | 307 | 43,085 | |||||||
London West | NDP | NDP | 22,510 | 45.13% | 5,624 | 11.27% | 48.62% | 16,886 | 22,510 | 6,077 | 1,713 | 1,277 | 521 | – | 898 | 49,882 | |||||||
Markham—Stouffville | PC | PC | 21,176 | 48.43% | 5,664 | 12.95% | 44.51% | 21,176 | 4,137 | 15,512 | 1,723 | 658 | 517 | – | – | 43,723 | |||||||
Markham—Thornhill | PC | PC | 14,011 | 48.82% | 3,248 | 11.32% | 39.68% | 14,011 | 2,597 | 10,763 | 733 | 376 | – | – | 219 | 28,699 | |||||||
Markham—Unionville | PC | PC | 19,985 | 56.42% | 9,211 | 26.00% | 39.12% | 19,985 | 2,579 | 10,774 | 1,299 | 536 | 249 | – | – | 35,422 | |||||||
Milton | PC | PC | 16,766 | 43.07% | 1,680 | 4.32% | 42.70% | 16,766 | 3,777 | 15,086 | 1,612 | 1,579 | – | – | 107 | 38,927 | |||||||
Mississauga Centre | PC | PC | 14,719 | 43.60% | 2,459 | 7.28% | 38.14% | 14,719 | 4,148 | 12,260 | 1,188 | 523 | 332 | – | 588 | 33,758 | |||||||
Mississauga East—Cooksville | PC | PC | 13,840 | 40.91% | 1,206 | 3.57% | 39.58% | 13,840 | 3,664 | 12,634 | 1,345 | 1,599 | 625 | – | 121 | 33,828 | |||||||
Mississauga—Erin Mills | PC | PC | 15,693 | 42.15% | 1,736 | 4.66% | 41.70% | 15,693 | 4,521 | 13,954 | 1,594 | 978 | 495 | – | – | 37,235 | |||||||
Mississauga—Lakeshore | PC | PC | 19,341 | 45.09% | 3,573 | 8.33% | 46.95% | 19,341 | 3,647 | 15,768 | 2,160 | 1,014 | 501 | – | 459 | 42,890 | |||||||
Mississauga—Malton | PC | PC | 13,028 | 44.89% | 4,190 | 14.44% | 36.51% | 13,028 | 5,140 | 8,838 | 1,173 | 844 | – | – | – | 29,023 | |||||||
Mississauga—Streetsville | PC | PC | 17,317 | 45.58% | 3,838 | 10.10% | 42.67% | 17,317 | 4,554 | 13,479 | 1,137 | 737 | 484 | – | 281 | 37,989 | |||||||
Mushkegowuk—James Bay | NDP | NDP | 3,423 | 47.18% | 829 | 11.43% | 39.40% | 2,594 | 3,423 | 852 | 141 | 222 | – | – | 23 | 7,255 | |||||||
Nepean | PC | PC | 17,123 | 39.26% | 2,094 | 4.80% | 45.89% | 17,123 | 8,435 | 15,029 | 1,696 | 964 | 370 | – | – | 43,617 | |||||||
Newmarket—Aurora | PC | PC | 18,671 | 44.97% | 5,602 | 13.49% | 44.42% | 18,671 | 5,281 | 13,069 | 2,332 | 1,520 | 532 | – | 118 | 41,523 | |||||||
Niagara Centre | NDP | NDP | 16,360 | 39.70% | 854 | 2.07% | 43.37% | 15,506 | 16,360 | 5,492 | 1,865 | 1,148 | 837 | – | – | 41,208 | |||||||
Niagara Falls | NDP | NDP | 24,207 | 48.08% | 5,865 | 11.65% | 43.60% | 18,342 | 24,207 | 4,239 | 1,356 | 1,409 | 656 | – | 135 | 50,344 | |||||||
Niagara West | PC | PC | 18,779 | 44.93% | 10,121 | 24.22% | 53.16% | 18,779 | 8,658 | 8,013 | 2,702 | 1,098 | 2,207 | – | 339 | 41,796 | |||||||
Nickel Belt | NDP | NDP | 15,611 | 50.77% | 6,430 | 20.91% | 45.51% | 9,181 | 15,611 | 3,042 | 921 | 1,522 | 470 | – | – | 30,747 | |||||||
Nipissing | PC | PC | 15,392 | 50.20% | 6,727 | 21.94% | 48.29% | 15,392 | 8,665 | 4,150 | 1,025 | 399 | 616 | – | 412 | 30,659 | |||||||
Northumberland—Peterborough South | PC | PC | 26,419 | 50.93% | 13,483 | 25.99% | 51.72% | 26,419 | 6,806 | 12,936 | 2,942 | 1,170 | 1,598 | – | – | 51,871 | |||||||
Oakville | PC | PC | 21,162 | 45.44% | 3,608 | 7.75% | 50.29% | 21,162 | 3,154 | 17,554 | 2,416 | 764 | 497 | – | 1,022 | 46,569 | |||||||
Oakville North—Burlington | PC | PC | 22,221 | 47.18% | 5,590 | 11.87% | 46.89% | 22,221 | 4,673 | 16,631 | 2,027 | 1,097 | 446 | – | – | 47,095 | |||||||
Orléans | Lib | Lib | 23,982 | 46.26% | 15,413 | 13.61% | 46.59% | 16,926 | 7,150 | 23,982 | 2,359 | 796 | 442 | – | 184 | 51,839 | |||||||
Oshawa | NDP | NDP | 17,170 | 42.07% | 747 | 1.83% | 39.48% | 16,423 | 17,170 | 3,726 | 1,641 | 1,006 | 843 | – | – | 40,809 | |||||||
Ottawa Centre | NDP | NDP | 30,311 | 54.34% | 17,715 | 31.76% | 50.74% | 8,773 | 30,311 | 12,596 | 2,718 | 798 | – | 140 | 445 | 55,781 | |||||||
Ottawa South | Lib | Lib | 18,282 | 45.14% | 8,663 | 21.39% | 42.48% | 9,390 | 9,619 | 18,282 | 1,885 | 675 | 386 | 154 | 109 | 40,500 | |||||||
Ottawa—Vanier | Lib | Lib | 16,132 | 41.89% | 6,106 | 15.85% | 39.42% | 7,798 | 10,026 | 16,132 | 3,019 | 400 | 587 | – | 711 | 38,673 | |||||||
Ottawa West—Nepean | PC | NDP | 15,696 | 37.54% | 1,086 | 2.60% | 47.42% | 14,610 | 15,696 | 9,384 | 1,475 | – | 649 | – | – | 41,814 | |||||||
Oxford | PC | PC | 22,166 | 50.01% | 12,662 | 28.57% | 46.45% | 22,166 | 9,504 | 5,457 | 2,097 | 1,518 | 3,579 | – | – | 44,321 | |||||||
Parkdale—High Park | NDP | NDP | 23,024 | 53.97% | 13,477 | 31.59% | 50.25% | 6,270 | 23,024 | 9,547 | 2,587 | 537 | 349 | – | 350 | 42,664 | |||||||
Parry Sound—Muskoka | PC | PC | 20,216 | 45.37% | 2,114 | 4.74% | 53.09% | 20,216 | 3,427 | – | 18,102 | 883 | 1,649 | 155 | 126 | 44,558 | |||||||
Perth—Wellington | PC | PC | 19,468 | 46.80% | 10,298 | 24.76% | 50.09% | 19,468 | 9,170 | 6,708 | 2,627 | 2,457 | 985 | – | 182 | 41,597 | |||||||
Peterborough—Kawartha | PC | PC | 20,205 | 38.58% | 4,207 | 8.03% | 51.47% | 20,205 | 11,196 | 15,998 | 1,914 | 1,088 | 1,972 | – | – | 52,373 | |||||||
Pickering—Uxbridge | PC | PC | 19,208 | 44.43% | 6,863 | 15.87% | 45.29% | 19,208 | 6,934 | 12,345 | 2,266 | 543 | 1,790 | – | 146 | 43,232 | |||||||
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PC | PC | 24,563 | 61.12% | 17,691 | 44.02% | 46.29% | 24,563 | 6,872 | 3,928 | 1,470 | 1,868 | 1,162 | – | 325 | 40,188 | |||||||
Richmond Hill | PC | PC | 16,088 | 52.24% | 6,263 | 20.34% | 36.14% | 16,088 | 2,805 | 9,825 | 917 | 535 | 519 | – | 107 | 30,796 | |||||||
St. Catharines | NDP | NDP | 17,128 | 39.71% | 2,277 | 5.28% | 46.66% | 14,851 | 17,128 | 7,175 | 1,764 | 1,103 | 613 | – | 502 | 43,136 | |||||||
Sarnia—Lambton | PC | PC | 21,184 | 52.72% | 11,695 | 29.11% | 46.69% | 21,184 | 9,489 | 4,200 | 1,266 | 2,719 | 351 | – | 972 | 40,181 | |||||||
Sault Ste. Marie | PC | PC | 12,606 | 46.89% | 2,577 | 9.59% | 44.49% | 12,606 | 10,029 | 1,610 | 675 | 894 | – | 1,070 | – | 26,884 | |||||||
Scarborough—Agincourt | PC | PC | 14,040 | 49.03% | 3,368 | 11.76% | 39.43% | 14,040 | 2,512 | 10,672 | 628 | 292 | 492 | – | – | 28,636 | |||||||
Scarborough Centre | PC | PC | 11,471 | 35.99% | 1,793 | 5.63% | 41.25% | 11,471 | 8,358 | 9,678 | 892 | 355 | 297 | 352 | 466 | 31,869 | |||||||
Scarborough—Guildwood | Lib | Lib | 13,405 | 46.31% | 4,282 | 14.79% | 41.63% | 9,123 | 4,824 | 13,405 | 818 | 366 | 265 | – | 148 | 28,949 | |||||||
Scarborough North | PC | PC | 12,646 | 48.31% | 4,896 | 18.70% | 39.26% | 12,646 | 4,820 | 7,750 | 479 | 277 | 105 | – | 100 | 26,177 | |||||||
Scarborough—Rouge Park | PC | PC | 15,989 | 45.28% | 6,205 | 17.57% | 45.12% | 15,989 | 7,742 | 9,784 | 850 | 285 | 523 | – | 139 | 35,312 | |||||||
Scarborough Southwest | NDP | NDP | 16,842 | 47.68% | 7,092 | 20.08% | 44.34% | 9,750 | 16,842 | 6,556 | 1,251 | 383 | 320 | 110 | 114 | 35,326 | |||||||
Simcoe—Grey | PC | PC | 27,067 | 51.18% | 15,380 | 29.08% | 43.52% | 27,067 | 5,849 | 11,687 | 4,742 | 2,147 | 1,039 | – | 355 | 52,886 | |||||||
Simcoe North | PC | PC | 23,041 | 49.80% | 14,833 | 32.06% | 46.24% | 23,041 | 8,208 | 8,070 | 4,071 | 1,438 | 1,119 | – | 318 | 46,265 | |||||||
Spadina—Fort York | NDP | NDP | 15,595 | 46.06% | 6,132 | 18.11% | 34.35% | 6,221 | 15,595 | 9,463 | 1,902 | 581 | – | – | 95 | 33,857 | |||||||
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PC | PC | 20,766 | 57.50% | 14,308 | 39.62% | 41.63% | 20,766 | 4,982 | 6,458 | 1,477 | 1,538 | 893 | – | – | 36,114 | |||||||
Sudbury | NDP | NDP | 12,013 | 40.85% | 3,494 | 11.88% | 44.60% | 8,519 | 12,013 | 5,727 | 1,480 | 724 | 353 | 90 | 504 | 29,410 | |||||||
Thornhill | PC | PC | 18,395 | 53.28% | 8,148 | 23.60% | 39.88% | 18,395 | 2,698 | 10,247 | 1,155 | 931 | 351 | 361 | 384 | 34,522 | |||||||
Thunder Bay—Atikokan | NDP | PC | 9,657 | 36.31% | 898 | 3.38% | 43.09% | 9,657 | 8,759 | 6,486 | 781 | 529 | 248 | – | 138 | 26,598 | |||||||
Thunder Bay—Superior North | Lib | NDP | 8,404 | 34.12% | 800 | 3.25% | 43.24% | 7,604 | 8,404 | 6,966 | 738 | 314 | 338 | – | 270 | 24,634 | |||||||
Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP | NDP | 9,735 | 42.74% | 1,711 | 7.51% | 42.61% | 8,024 | 9,735 | 1,600 | 1,485 | 1,181 | 349 | – | 405 | 22,779 | |||||||
Timmins | NDP | PC | 9,356 | 64.81% | 5,085 | 35.22% | 43.54% | 9,356 | 4,271 | – | 323 | 421 | – | – | 66 | 14,437 | |||||||
Toronto Centre | NDP | NDP | 15,285 | 43.77% | 2,465 | 7.06% | 39.82% | 4,245 | 15,285 | 12,820 | 1,784 | 385 | – | – | 402 | 34,921 | |||||||
Toronto—Danforth | NDP | NDP | 22,890 | 55.39% | 13,650 | 33.03% | 49.44% | 5,556 | 22,890 | 9,240 | 2,513 | 515 | 232 | – | 378 | 41,324 | |||||||
Toronto—St. Paul's | NDP | NDP | 15,292 | 36.26% | 1,092 | 2.59% | 48.07% | 9,445 | 15,292 | 14,200 | 2,302 | 473 | 242 | – | 225 | 42,179 | |||||||
University—Rosedale | NDP | NDP | 13,961 | 37.55% | 3,789 | 10.19% | 43.20% | 6,535 | 13,961 | 10,172 | 5,904 | 469 | – | – | 140 | 37,181 | |||||||
Vaughan—Woodbridge | PC | PC | 19,340 | 53.78% | 6,725 | 18.70% | 44.03% | 19,340 | 1,927 | 12,615 | 694 | 802 | 304 | – | 276 | 35,958 | |||||||
Waterloo | NDP | NDP | 20,615 | 45.89% | 7,439 | 16.56% | 48.41% | 13,176 | 20,615 | 6,251 | 3,110 | 1,178 | 359 | – | 233 | 44,922 | |||||||
Wellington—Halton Hills | PC | PC | 25,049 | 50.61% | 17,325 | 35.00% | 48.38% | 25,049 | 7,724 | 6,920 | 7,002 | 2,548 | – | – | 250 | 49,493 | |||||||
Whitby | PC | PC | 21,840 | 47.37% | 11,316 | 25.54% | 44.88% | 21,840 | 10,524 | 9,556 | 2,397 | 903 | 519 | 168 | 197 | 46,104 | |||||||
Willowdale | PC | PC | 14,105 | 44.66% | 2,115 | 6.70% | 39.84% | 14,105 | 3,253 | 11,990 | 1,143 | 392 | 338 | 132 | 230 | 31,583 | |||||||
Windsor—Tecumseh | NDP | PC | 17,692 | 45.89% | 6,141 | 15.93% | 40.61% | 17,692 | 11,551 | 5,598 | 1,002 | 786 | 1,219 | 524 | 179 | 38,551 | |||||||
Windsor West | NDP | NDP | 13,395 | 42.19% | 2,184 | 6.88% | 33.62% | 11,211 | 13,395 | 4,159 | 879 | 630 | 1,478 | – | – | 31,752 | |||||||
York Centre | PC | PC | 12,947 | 46.03% | 3,963 | 14.09% | 38.94% | 12,947 | 3,935 | 8,984 | 799 | 411 | 679 | – | 373 | 28,128 | |||||||
York—Simcoe | PC | PC | 20,789 | 56.76% | 14,470 | 39.51% | 39.00% | 20,789 | 4,083 | 6,319 | 2,691 | 1,633 | 698 | – | 415 | 36,628 | |||||||
York South—Weston | NDP | PC | 11,138 | 36.60% | 796 | 2.62% | 38.11% | 11,138 | 10,342 | 7,377 | 770 | 345 | 251 | 209 | – | 30,432 |
- = open seat
- = turnout is above provincial average
- = incumbent re-elected under the same party banner
- = incumbent switched allegiance after 2018 election
- = other incumbents renominated
- ^ Summarized from "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
- ^ Summarized from "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
- ^ Summarized from "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
- ^ including spoilt ballots
- ^ Provincewide turnout was 44.06%
- ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
Post-election pendulum
[edit]The robustness of the margins of victory for each party can be summarized in electoral pendulums. These are not necessarily a measure of the volatility of the respective riding results. The following tables show the margins over the various 2nd-place contenders, for which one-half of the value represents the swing needed to overturn the result. Actual seat turnovers in the 2022 election are noted for reference.
- = seats that turned over in the election
- ^ Summarized from "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
- ^ Summarized from "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
- ^ Summarized from "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2022 Provincial General Election". Elections Ontario. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
Results summary by region
[edit]Region | Seats | Vote share (%) | Change (pp) | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | NDP | Lib | Grn | Ind | PC | NDP | Lib | Grn | NB | Ont | PC | NDP | Lib | Grn | NB | Ont | Major swing | |
Central Ontario | 10 | – | – | – | – | 48.86 | 14.28 | 22.46 | 7.57 | 3.11 | 3.10 | +3.01 | -14.64 | +5.03 | +1.29 | +3.11 | +3.10 | → 9.84 |
Eastern Ontario | 7 | – | 1 | – | – | 48.03 | 18.38 | 22.52 | 4.80 | 2.87 | 2.89 | -2.54 | -8.63 | +5.76 | +0.59 | +2.87 | +2.69 | → 7.15 |
Greater Toronto Area (905) | 24 | 1 | – | – | – | 46.95 | 15.18 | 30.01 | 3.74 | 2.37 | 1.22 | +1.15 | -12.29 | +8.10 | +0.75 | +2.37 | +1.22 | → 10.20 |
Hamilton, Halton and Niagara | 7 | 6 | – | – | – | 38.68 | 28.60 | 22.46 | 5.15 | 2.52 | 1.67 | -0.29 | -9.11 | +5.23 | +0.85 | +2.52 | +1.67 | → 7.17 |
Midwestern Ontario | 8 | 2 | – | 1 | 1 | 38.84 | 23.48 | 14.66 | 12.65 | 5.01 | 1.80 | -3.33 | -9.90 | +1.74 | +2.84 | +5.01 | +1.61 | → 7.45 |
Northeastern Ontario | 4 | 5 | – | – | – | 40.90 | 33.92 | 8.27 | 10.78 | 3.26 | 1.64 | +7.37 | -11.27 | -4.22 | +4.92 | +3.26 | +1.64 | → 9.32 |
Northwest Ontario | 2 | 2 | – | – | – | 39.21 | 32.06 | 21.59 | 3.17 | 1.93 | 1.20 | +11.76 | -5.73 | -8.48 | -0.01 | +1.93 | +1.20 | → 10.12 |
Ottawa | 3 | 2 | 3 | – | – | 32.08 | 27.34 | 32.55 | 5.00 | 1.58 | 0.91 | -1.82 | -2.62 | +2.40 | +1.11 | +1.58 | +0.82 | → 2.51 |
Southwestern Ontario | 6 | 4 | – | – | – | 44.19 | 32.00 | 11.83 | 3.44 | 3.76 | 3.69 | +4.70 | -13.86 | +2.53 | -0.41 | +3.76 | +3.69 | → 9.28 |
Toronto | 12 | 9 | 4 | – | – | 32.22 | 27.94 | 31.86 | 4.85 | 1.41 | 0.84 | -2.55 | -7.14 | +6.53 | +1.52 | +1.41 | +0.84 | → 6.84 |
Total | 83 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 40.83 | 23.74 | 23.91 | 5.96 | 2.71 | 1.78 | +0.33 | -9.85 | +4.33 | +1.35 | +2.71 | +1.74 | → 7.09 |
Detailed results
[edit]Political party | Party leader | MPPs | Votes | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidates | 2018 | Dissol. | 2022 | ± | # | #± | % | ± (pp) | |||
Progressive Conservative | Doug Ford | 124 | 76 | 67 | 83 | 7![]() | 1,919,905 | 406,618![]() | 40.83% | 0.64![]() | |
Liberal | Steven Del Duca | 121 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 1![]() | 1,124,065 | 281![]() | 23.91% | 4.49![]() | |
New Democratic | Andrea Horwath | 124 | 40 | 38 | 31 | 9![]() | 1,116,383 | 813,583![]() | 23.74% | 9.60![]() | |
Green | Mike Schreiner | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1![]() | 280,006 | 15,487![]() | 5.96% | 1.39![]() | |
Independents and no affiliation | 40 | – | 6 | 1 | 1![]() | 25,332 | 17,106![]() | 0.54% | 0.40![]() | ||
New Blue | Jim Karahalios | 123 | New | 1 | – | – | 127,462 | New | 2.71% | New | |
Ontario Party | Derek Sloan | 105 | – | 1 | – | – | 83,618 | 81,302![]() | 1.78% | 1.74![]() | |
None of the Above | Greg Vezina | 28 | – | – | – | – | 6,202 | 9,944![]() | 0.13% | 0.15![]() | |
Libertarian | Mark Snow | 16 | – | – | – | – | 5,242 | 37,580![]() | 0.11% | 0.63![]() | |
Populist | Jim Torma | 13 | New | – | – | – | 2,638 | New | 0.06% | New | |
Freedom | Paul McKeever | 11 | – | – | – | – | 2,103 | 462![]() | 0.04% | – | |
Communist | Drew Garvie | 12 | – | – | – | – | 2,100 | 629![]() | 0.04% | 0.01![]() | |
Consensus Ontario | Brad Harness | 11 | – | – | – | – | 1,651 | 1,031![]() | 0.04% | 0.01![]() | |
Moderate | Yuri Duboisky | 17 | – | – | – | – | 1,618 | 581![]() | 0.03% | 0.01![]() | |
Canadians' Choice Party | Bahman Yazdanfar | 2 | – | – | – | – | 568 | 671![]() | 0.01% | 0.01![]() | |
Confederation of Regions | Murray Reid | 3 | – | – | – | – | 414 | 28![]() | 0.01% | – | |
People's Political Party | Troy Young | 3 | – | – | – | – | 409 | 219![]() | 0.01% | – | |
People's Progressive Common Front | Raymond Samuels | 3 | New | – | – | – | 367 | New | 0.01% | New | |
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda | Queenie Yu | 3 | – | – | – | – | 340 | 738![]() | 0.01% | 0.01![]() | |
Centrist Party | Mansoor Qureshi | 2 | New | – | – | – | 295 | New | 0.01% | New | |
Special Needs | Lionel Poizner | 2 | – | – | – | – | 290 | 341![]() | 0.01% | – | |
Northern Ontario | Trevor Holliday | 2 | – | – | – | – | 283 | 5,629![]() | 0.01% | 0.09![]() | |
Public Benefit Party | Kathleen Ann Sayer | 2 | New | – | – | – | 196 | New | – | New | |
Electoral Reform Party | Peter House | 2 | New | – | – | – | 182 | New | – | New | |
Freedom of Choice, Peace & Justice Party | Lilya Eklishaeva | 2 | New | – | – | – | 182 | New | – | New | |
Ontario Alliance | Joshua E. Eriksen | 2 | – | – | – | – | 108 | 694![]() | – | 0.01![]() | |
Vacant | 3 | ||||||||||
Total | 897 | 124 | 4,701,959 | 1,042,901![]() | 100.00% | ||||||
Rejected, unmarked and declined ballots | 30,517 | 30,909![]() | |||||||||
Turnout | 4,732,476 | 1,073,810![]() | |||||||||
Registered voters / turnout % | 10,740,426 | 44.06% | 12.61![]() |
Summary analysis
[edit]Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | NDP | Liberal | Grn | |||
Progressive Conservative | 33 | 49 | 1 | 83 | ||
New Democratic | 22 | 9 | 31 | |||
Liberal | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||
Green | 1 | 1 | ||||
Independent | 1 | 1 | ||||
Total | 28 | 37 | 58 | 1 | 124 |
Parties | Seats | |
---|---|---|
█ Progressive Conservative | █ New Democratic | 55 |
█ Progressive Conservative | █ Liberal | 53 |
█ Progressive Conservative | █ Green | 2 |
█ New Democratic | █ Liberal | 13 |
█ Independent | █ Progressive Conservative | 1 |
Total | 124 |
Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
█ Progressive Conservative | 83 | 28 | 13 | 124 | ||
█ New Democratic | 31 | 37 | 54 | 2 | 124 | |
█ Liberal | 8 | 58 | 53 | 2 | 121 | |
█ Green | 1 | 1 | 2 | 93 | 24 | 121 |
█ Independent | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
█ New Blue | 1 | 16 | 80 | 97 | ||
█ Ontario Party | 1 | 9 | 17 | 27 | ||
█ Confederation of Regions | 1 | 1 | ||||
█ Libertarian | 1 | 1 | ||||
█ None of the Above | 1 | 1 |
Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests
[edit]Riding | 1st | 2nd | 1st vs 2nd | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | 42.10% | 41.35% | 0.75% | ||
Eglinton—Lawrence | 42.30% | 40.96% | 1.34% | ||
Etobicoke—Lakeshore | 37.48% | 35.72% | 1.76% | ||
Oshawa | 42.07% | 40.24% | 1.83% | ||
Niagara Centre | 39.70% | 37.63% | 2.07% | ||
Beaches—East York | 35.42% | 33.21% | 2.21% | ||
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | 42.05% | 39.50% | 2.55% | ||
Toronto—St. Paul's | 36.25% | 33.66% | 2.59% | ||
Ottawa West—Nepean | 37.54% | 34.94% | 2.60% | ||
York South—Weston | 36.60% | 33.98% | 2.62% |
Riding | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 1st vs 3rd | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Humber River—Black Creek | 34.49% | 30.66% | 29.75% | 4.74% | |||
Thunder Bay—Superior North | 34.12% | 30.87% | 28.28% | 5.84% | |||
Scarborough Centre | 36.00% | 30.37% | 26.23% | 9.77% | |||
Thunder Bay—Atikokan | 36.31% | 32.93% | 24.39% | 11.92% | |||
York South—Weston | 36.60% | 33.98% | 24.24% | 12.36% | |||
Kingston and the Islands | 37.66% | 31.15% | 24.56% | 13.10% | |||
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | 34.60% | 27.34% | 21.08% | 13.52% | |||
Toronto—St. Paul's | 36.25% | 33.67% | 22.39% | 13.86% | |||
Ottawa West—Nepean | 37.54% | 34.94% | 22.44% | 15.10% | |||
Cambridge | 37.03% | 22.19% | 20.70% | 16.33% |
Significant results among independent and minor party candidates
[edit]Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:
Riding | Party | Candidates | Votes | Placed |
---|---|---|---|---|
Haldimand—Norfolk | █ Independent | Bobbi Ann Brady | 15,921 | 1st |
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | █ Independent | Paul Miller | 2,411 | 4th |
Sault Ste. Marie | █ Independent | Naomi Sayers | 1,070 | 4th |
Seats changing hands
[edit]Of the 124 seats, 26 were open because of MPPs who chose not to stand for reelection, and voters in only 14 seats changed allegiance from the previous election in 2018.
Party | 2018 | Gain from (loss to) | 2022 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | NDP | Lib | Grn | Ind | |||||||||
Progressive Conservative | 76 | 9 | (1) | (1) | 83 | ||||||||
New Democratic | 40 | 1 | (9) | 1 | (2) | 31 | |||||||
Liberal | 7 | 2 | (1) | 8 | |||||||||
Green | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
Independent | – | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
Total | 124 | 2 | (9) | 11 | (2) | 1 | (2) | – | – | – | (1) | 124 |
There were 14 seats that changed allegiance in the election:
|
|
Of the 14 seats that changed hands, seven were open seats where the MPPs chose to retire, and seven others saw their incumbents defeated.
Riding | Party | Candidate | Incumbent retiring from the House | Won by | Party |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beaches—East York | █ New Democratic | Kate Dupuis | Rima Berns-McGown | Mary-Margaret McMahon | █ Liberal |
Brampton North | █ New Democratic | Sandeep Singh | Kevin Yarde[a 1] | Graham McGregor | █ Progressive Conservative |
Essex | █ New Democratic | Ron LeClair | Taras Natyshak | Anthony Leardi | █ Progressive Conservative |
Haldimand—Norfolk | █ Progressive Conservative | Ken Hewitt | Toby Barrett | Bobbi Ann Brady | █ Independent |
Kingston and the Islands | █ New Democratic | Mary Rita Holland | Ian Arthur | Ted Hsu | █ Liberal |
Thunder Bay—Superior North | █ Liberal | Shelby Ch’ng | Michael Gravelle | Lise Vaugeois | █ New Democratic |
Windsor—Tecumseh | █ New Democratic | Gemma Grey-Hall | Percy Hatfield | Andrew Dowie | █ Progressive Conservative |
- ^ sat as an Independent at dissolution
Constituency | Party | Name | Year elected | Seat held by party since | Defeated by | Party |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brampton Centre | █ New Democratic | Sara Singh | 2018 | 2018 | Charmaine Williams | █ Progressive Conservative |
Brampton East | █ New Democratic | Gurratan Singh | 2018 | 2018 | Hardeep Grewal | █ Progressive Conservative |
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | █ New Democratic | Paul Miller[a 1] | 2007 | 2007 | Neil Lumsden | █ Progressive Conservative |
Ottawa West—Nepean | █ Progressive Conservative | Jeremy Roberts | 2018 | 2018 | Chandra Pasma | █ New Democratic |
Thunder Bay—Atikokan | █ New Democratic | Judith Monteith-Farrell | 2018 | 2018 | Kevin Holland | █ Progressive Conservative |
Timmins | █ New Democratic | Gilles Bisson | 1990 | 1990 | George Pirie | █ Progressive Conservative |
York South—Weston | █ New Democratic | Faisal Hassan | 2018 | 2018 | Michael Ford | █ Progressive Conservative |
- ^ chose to stand as an Independent in the election
Three PC MPPs had changed allegiance during the course of the past Legislature, but failed to secure reelection under their new banners. The seats reverted to the PCs.
Constituency | Party (2018) | Party (at dissolution) | Name | Year elected | Changed allegiance | Defeated by | Party |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cambridge | █ Progressive Conservative | █ New Blue | Belinda Karahalios | 2018 | 2020 | Brian Riddell | █ Progressive Conservative |
Chatham-Kent—Leamington | █ Progressive Conservative | █ Ontario Party | Rick Nicholls | 2011 | 2021 | Trevor Jones | █ Progressive Conservative |
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | █ Progressive Conservative | █ Liberal | Amanda Simard | 2018 | 2020 | Stéphane Sarrazin | █ Progressive Conservative |
Source | Party | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | NDP | Lib | Grn | Ind | Total | ||
Seats retained | Incumbents returned | 55 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 88 | |
Open seats held | 16 | 1 | 2 | 19 | |||
Ouster of incumbents changing affiliation | 3 | 3 | |||||
Seats changing hands | Incumbents defeated | 6 | 1 | 7 | |||
Open seats gained | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | ||
Total | 83 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 124 |
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