2010 Polish presidential election

2010 Polish presidential election
← 2005 20 June 2010 (first round)
4 July 2010 (second round)		 2015 →
Turnout54.92% (first round) Increase5.20pp
55.30% (second round) Increase4.32pp
 
Bronisław Komorowski official cropped.jpg
Jarosław Kaczyński Sejm 2016a (cropped).JPG
Nominee Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński
Party PO PiS
Popular vote 8,933,887 7,919,134
Percentage 53.01% 46.99%
Second round results by powiat
President before election

Bronisław Komorowski (Acting)
PO

Elected President

Bronisław Komorowski
PO

Politics of Poland
Government
Legislature
Executive
Judiciary
Elections
Political parties
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations
Related topics

Presidential elections were held in Poland on 20 June 2010. As no candidate received a majority of votes in the first round, a second round was held on 4 July 2010.[1] Bronisław Komorowski, the acting President of Poland and vice-chairman of the Civic Platform, defeated Jarosław Kaczyński, twin brother of recently deceased President Lech Kaczyński and chairman of Law and Justice (PiS). The global financial crisis, flooding in Poland and the Smolensk disaster were the main themes in the last months of the election campaign.

As of 2024, this remains the last Polish presidential election won by a non PiS-aligned candidate.

Background

[edit]

The 2010 presidential election was expected to be a rematch of the 2005 election between Lech Kaczyński and Donald Tusk. Since the last presidential election, Polish politics had become centered around the rivalry between Law and Justice and the Civic Platform. President Kaczyński and Prime Minister Tusk were constantly battling each other over who should represent Poland on the international stage.[2] Tusk was leading Kaczyński in all the opinion polling (as he did in 2005 before he ultimately lost) and the election was expected to be a dirty one. However, this rematch never came to be. Donald Tusk announced in January 2010 that he will not run for President because he wants to remain Prime Minister.[3] Lech Kaczyński was set to declare his candidacy for re-election on 23 May but he died on 10 April in the Smolensk air disaster.[4]

After Donald Tusk declined to run for president, the Civic Platform organized a presidential primary. The primary was won by Bronisław Komorowski who defeated Radosław Sikorski receiving 68.5% of the vote to Sikorski's 31.5%.[5] Bronisław Komorowski consistently lead Lech Kaczyński by double digits in the first round and by a 2-to-1 margin in the second round. No other candidate registered support in the double digits.[6]

After President Lech Kaczyński's death in a plane crash on 10 April 2010, the Constitution required the Marshal of the Sejm to declare the date within two weeks, with the election to take place on a weekend within the following 60 days, i.e. 20 June at the latest. On 21 April, the Marshal, Bronisław Komorowski, announced the election date as 20 June 2010.[7] Candidates were required to register by 26 April 2010 (with 1,000 signatures of voters in support) and submit 100,000 signatures by 6 May 2010.[8]

Originally, Kaczyński was up for re-election between 19 September and 3 October; the exact date would have been announced between 23 May and 23 June, before the end of his first five-year term of office.[9]

Two candidates for the election died in the crash. Incumbent Lech Kaczyński was nominated as the Law and Justice party candidate (he had yet to accept the nomination, but it was widely believed that he would do so), and Jerzy Szmajdziński was to have run for the Democratic Left Alliance.[10] Jarosław Kaczyński ran for president as the replacement for his deceased twin brother.[11] Jerzy Szmajdziński's replacement was Grzegorz Napieralski.[12]

Senate by-elections to fill the three seats whose senators died in the crash – Krystyna Bochenek (PO), Janina Fetlińska (PiS) and Stanisław Zając (PiS, himself elected in a by-election on 22 June 2008 to replace Andrzej Mazurkiewicz) – were held on the same day.[3]

Candidates

[edit]

In total, 23 candidates registered with the Polish National Electoral Commission on, or just following, the 26 April deadline. 17 of the 23 candidacies were accepted by the commission, whilst the remaining 6 were rejected because they had not gathered the required 1000 signatures.

Only ten candidates collected the required 100,000 signatures and were eligible to run for president.[13]

Rejected candidates

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Withdrawn

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Dead

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Campaign

[edit]

Bronisław Komorowski's campaign slogan was "Unity builds" (Zgoda buduje) and his strategy was to portray himself as an independent politician ready to work with everyone to fix the nation's problems. He pledged to work closely with the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to adopt the euro in about five years, end the unpopular military mission in Afghanistan and promote pro-market reforms.[19]

Jarosław Kaczyński's campaign slogan was "Poland is the most important" (Polska jest najważniejsza) and he aimed to soften his own image and present himself as someone ready for compromise. He praised his late twin brother's legacy and promised to continue his policies as President. He made it a priority to fight crime and corruption, scale back market reforms to preserve a strong welfare state and promote Roman Catholic values [19]

Opinion polls

[edit]

First round

[edit]
Date Institute Candidate Undecided Source
Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński Grzegorz Napieralski Waldemar Pawlak Andrzej Olechowski Andrzej Lepper Janusz Korwin-Mikke Marek Jurek Kornel Morawiecki Bogusław Ziętek
7 May 2010 TNS OBOP 50% 36% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% – [20]
10 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 45% 34% 5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% – [21]
12 May 2010 GfK Polonia 41% 28% 4% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% [22]
14 May 2010 TNS OBOP 51% 38% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% – [23]
15 May 2010 GfK Polonia 48% 30% 5% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 6% [24]
15 May 2010 Homo Homini 42.2% 35.9% 4.7% 5.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 1.9% 0% 0% 6% [25]
17 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 49% 29% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 7% [26]
22 May 2010 GfK Polonia 53% 28% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% – [27]
29 May 2010 Homo Homini 47.6% 32.5% 6.1% 4.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 5.6% [28]
31 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 46% 30% 9% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% [29]
2 June 2010 PBS DGA 48% 33% 8% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% – [30]
4 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 42% 31% 6% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 15% [31]
5 June 2010 Homo Homini 46,5% 32,4% 6,1% 4,4% 2,2% 0,6% 0,4% 0,4% 0,1% 0% 6,4% [32]
7 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 43% 32% 8% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 5% [33]
9 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 45% 31% 7% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% [34]
12 June 2010 GfK Polonia 42% 29% 11% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 9% [35]
16 June 2010 GfK Polonia 48% 34% 9% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% – [36]
16 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 41% 29% 12% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% – [37]
17 June 2010 TNS OBOP 42% 35% 13% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% – [38]
18 June 2010 MillwardBrown SMG/KRC 44% 29% 13% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 5% [39]

Second Round

[edit]
Date Institute Candidate Undecided Source
Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński
7 May 2010 TNS OBOP 61% 39% – [20]
10 May 2010 SMG/KRC 54% 41% 5% [21]
12 May 2010 GfK Polonia 53% 34% 13% [22]
14 May 2010 TNS OBOP 55% 39% 6% [40]
17 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 58% 33% 9% [41]
2 June 2010 PBS DGA 64% 36% – [42]
4 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 56% 35% 9% [43]
9 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 54% 36% 7% [34]
16 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 60% 40% – [36]
18 June 2010 MillwardBrown SMG/KRC 56% 33% 11% [39]
30 June – 1 July 2010 TNS OBOP 45% 37% 18% [44]
1 July 2010 GfK Polonia 47% 49% 4% [45]
2 July 2010 Millward Brown SMG/KRC 51% 44% 5% [46]
2 July 2010 Homo Homini 47.6% 45.2% 7.2% [44]

Results

[edit]
Results of the first round
Voting card in 2nd Round

There were 10 candidates in the first round of voting. Bronisław Komorowski of Civic Platform received 41.5% and Jarosław Kaczyński of Law and Justice received 36.5%, causing a second round of voting between the two. The other eight candidates were eliminated.[47]

Soon after exit polls were released in the second round, Jarosław Kaczyński conceded that he had been defeated. Bronisław Komorowski appeared to tentatively claim victory, stating: "Tonight we will open a small bottle of champagne and tomorrow we will open a big bottle."[48] The exit polls put Komorowski ahead of Kaczyński by 53% to 47%.[49] On the following day, Komorowski was declared the winner of the election.[50] The final result put Komorowski with 53.01% of the vote, and Kaczyński with 46.99%.[47] Komorowski's win resulted in Civic Platform holding both the Presidency and the government (under Prime Minister Donald Tusk).[51] Correspondents in US and British business newspapers suggested that Komorowski's win would mean closer engagement with the European Union,[52] and such domestic economic reforms as deficit reduction.[53]

CandidatePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Bronisław KomorowskiCivic Platform6,981,31941.548,933,88753.01
Jarosław KaczyńskiLaw and Justice6,128,25536.467,919,13446.99
Grzegorz NapieralskiDemocratic Left Alliance2,299,87013.68
Janusz Korwin-MikkeLiberty and Lawfulness416,8982.48
Waldemar PawlakPolish People's Party294,2731.75
Andrzej OlechowskiIndependent (SD)242,4391.44
Andrzej LepperSelf-Defense of the Republic of Poland214,6571.28
Marek JurekRight Wing of the Republic177,3151.06
Bogusław ZiętekPolish Labour Party - August 8029,5480.18
Kornel MorawieckiIndependent (SW)21,5960.13
Total16,806,170100.0016,853,021100.00
Valid votes16,806,17099.3016,853,02198.84
Invalid/blank votes117,6620.70197,3961.16
Total votes16,923,832100.0017,050,417100.00
Registered voters/turnout30,813,00554.9230,833,92455.30
Source: PKW, PKW

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Poland's snap presidential elections set for June 20". BBC News. 21 April 2010. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  2. ^ "Spats over who gets to go to EU summit break out in Poland, Finland". 29 August 2008.
  3. ^ a b "Polish Market Online .:. Polish Market Online .:. What's next for Poland?". Polishmarket.com.pl. 12 April 2010. Archived from the original on 5 October 2011. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  4. ^ "Wybory 2010. Lech Kaczyński rozpocznie kampanię 23 maja".
  5. ^ "Komorowski kandydatem PO na prezydenta. Klęska Sikorskiego". 27 March 2010.
  6. ^ https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/polityka/artykul/sondaz;kaczynski;nie;ma;szans;na;reelekcje,22,0,603670.htm [dead link‍]
  7. ^ "Poland May Hold Election June 20, Napieralski Says (Update1)". Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 14 April 2010. Retrieved 21 June 2010.[dead link‍]
  8. ^ Sobczyk, Marcin (21 April 2010). "Polish Election Set for June 20". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  9. ^ Constitution of Poland, Article 128
  10. ^ "Jerzy Szmajdziński – kandydat SLD na prezydenta". Gazeta Wyborcza (in Polish). 20 December 2009. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
  11. ^ "Instant view: Jaroslaw Kaczynski to run for Polish presidency". Reuters. 26 April 2010.
  12. ^ "Grzegorz Napieralski". 20 May 2010.
  13. ^ jagor, zsz. "Wybory 2010. Dziesięciu kandydatom na prezydenta udało się zebrać 100 tys. podpisów" (in Polish). Wiadomosci.gazeta.pl. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  14. ^ "Ludwik Dorn rezygnuje ze startu w wyborach". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 20 April 2010.
  15. ^ "Tomasz Nałęcz rezygnuje ze startu w wyborach" (in Polish). polskieradio.pl. 20 April 2010.
  16. ^ "Rezygnacja kandydata. Poprze J. Kaczyńskiego?" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 4 May 2010. Archived from the original on 7 May 2010. Retrieved 4 May 2010.
  17. ^ "Prezydent Kaczyński nie żyje" (in Polish). se.pl. 10 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  18. ^ "Jerzy Szmajdziński nie żyje" (in Polish). wp.pl. 10 April 2010. Archived from the original on 14 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  19. ^ a b "Komorowski leading Kaczynski in Polish election". 20 June 2010.
  20. ^ a b "Wybory 2010: Komorowski – 50 proc., Kaczyński – 36 proc. (TNS OBOP)" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 7 May 2010. Archived from the original on 12 May 2010.
  21. ^ a b "Wybory 2010. Nowy sondaż. Komorowski bez zmian, Kaczyńskiemu rośnie poparcie" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 10 May 2010.
  22. ^ a b "Najnowszy sondaż: Komorowski słabnie, Kaczyński 28 proc". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 12 May 2010.
  23. ^ "Sondaż: ponad połowa wyborców chce zagłosować na Komorowskiego" (in Polish). PAP. 14 May 2010.
  24. ^ "Sondaż: Komorowski dystansuje Kaczyńskiego". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 15 May 2010.
  25. ^ "Sondaż: Kaczyński coraz bliżej Komorowskiego" (in Polish). PR. 15 May 2010.
  26. ^ "Sondaż: duża przewaga marszałka" (in Polish). TVN24. 17 May 2010.
  27. ^ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Kaczyński traci 8 proc. Komorowski wygrywa w I turze" (in Polish). TVP. 21 May 2010.
  28. ^ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski zyskuje, Kaczyński traci. Będzie druga tura?" (in Polish). PR. 29 May 2010.
  29. ^ "Kandydat PO prowadzi. Napieralski znów w górę" (in Polish). TVN24. 31 May 2010.
  30. ^ "Sondaż: Komorowski traci, ale nadal ma prawie 50 proc. poparcia". Gazeta Wyborcza (in Polish). 2 June 2010.
  31. ^ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski i PO tracą poparcie" (in Polish). TVN24. 4 June 2010.
  32. ^ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Kaczyński łagodzi wizerunek i nie traci, Komorowskiemu spada" (in Polish). PR. 5 June 2010.
  33. ^ "Sondaż: liderzy nieznacznie zyskują" (in Polish). TVN24. 7 June 2010.
  34. ^ a b "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski rośnie w siłę, ale wygrywa dopiero w drugiej turze" (in Polish). TVN24. 9 June 2010.
  35. ^ "Liderzy traca, szef SLD zyskuje" (in Polish). Rp. 12 June 2010. Archived from the original on 31 March 2012. Retrieved 12 June 2010.
  36. ^ a b "Komorowski – 48 proc., Kaczyński – 34 proc". Gazeta Wyborcza (in Polish). 16 June 2010.
  37. ^ "Cztery dni przed wyborami Kaczyńskiemu spada poparcie" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 16 June 2010. Archived from the original on 19 June 2010. Retrieved 16 June 2010.
  38. ^ "Sondaż: 13 proc. głosów dla Napieralskiego" (in Polish). TVP Info. 17 June 2010.
  39. ^ a b "Wybory 2010. Ostatni sondaż przed wyborami. Komorowski wygrywa, ale w II turze. 56 proc. do 33 proc". Gazeta Wyborcza (in Polish). 18 June 2010.
  40. ^ "Sondaż: ponad połowa wyborców chce zagłosować na Komorowskiego" (in Polish). PAP. 14 May 2010.
  41. ^ "Sondaż: duża przewaga marszałka" (in Polish). TVN24. 17 May 2010.
  42. ^ "Sondaż: Komorowski traci, ale nadal ma prawie 50 proc. poparcia". Gazeta Wyborcza (in Polish). 2 June 2010.
  43. ^ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski i PO tracą poparcie" (in Polish). TVN24. 4 June 2010.
  44. ^ a b (in Polish) Sondaże: Drugą turę wygra Komorowski
  45. ^ (in Polish) Pomorska.pl Archived 28 July 2011 at the Wayback Machine
  46. ^ (in Polish) Ostatni sondaż SMG/KRC przed wyborami: Komorowski górą Archived 5 July 2010 at the Wayback Machine
  47. ^ a b "Bronislaw Komorowski declared president of Poland". BBC News. BBC. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  48. ^ "Kaczynski accepts Polish election defeat". BBC News. BBC. 4 July 2010. Retrieved 4 July 2010.
  49. ^ "Liberal beats bereaved twin in Polish vote". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 4 July 2010.
  50. ^ Gera, Vanessa (5 July 2010). "Komorowski win strengthens Polish government". Associated Press. Retrieved 5 July 2010.[dead link‍]
  51. ^ Foreign, Our (5 July 2010). "Poland's liberals dominate after dead president's twin defeated". The Daily Telegraph. London. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  52. ^ Fairclough, Gordon (5 July 2010). "Poland Vote Strengthens European Ties". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  53. ^ Buckley, Neil (5 July 2010). "Poland poised for vital reforms". Financial Times. Pearson PLC. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
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