Thornhill (federal electoral district)

For the provincial electoral district, see Thornhill (provincial electoral district).

Thornhill
Ontario electoral district
Thornhill in relation to other Greater Toronto ridings
Federal electoral district
LegislatureHouse of Commons
MP
 
 		 
Melissa Lantsman
Conservative
District created1996
First contested1997
Last contested2021
District webpageprofile, map
Demographics
Population (2021)[1]115,292
Electors (2021)85,739
Area (km²)[2]62.90
Pop. density (per km²)1,832.9
Census division(s)York
Census subdivision(s)Markham, Vaughan
Thornhill 2003 to 2015

Thornhill is a federal electoral district in Ontario, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1997. It covers its namesake Thornhill neighbourhood, which is split between the Cities of Vaughan and Markham. The Vaughan portion also includes parts of the city east of Highway 400 and south of Rutherford Road, including the largely industrial district of Concord and Vaughan's planned downtown; Vaughan Metropolitan Centre. The part in the City of Markham is restricted its portion of Thornhill itself (but does not include it all) west of Bayview Avenue.[clarification needed] The riding was created in 1996 and the east end of the riding was split off into other ridings in 2012.

The riding has the largest Jewish population in Canada at 29.5 percent.[3]

The riding was initially safe for the Liberals, and they won large majorities of the vote in its first two elections. In 2004, the large Jewish population started shifting toward the Conservative Party, and the Conservatives won the riding in 2008. After being targeted by the Conservatives as part of their strategy to win a majority in 2011, the riding became a Conservative stronghold.

Riding profile

[edit]

The riding is named after Thornhill, a suburban neighbourhood founded as a rural community that was first settled along Yonge Street in the mid-1790s, around the time of the street's opening.[4] The district of Concord and Vaughan Metropolitan Centre occupies the northern and western parts of the riding.[5]

According to the 2016 census, the population of the riding was 112,719, up 2.1% from 2011. In 2015, the median income in the riding was $33,474 compared to $30,798 in 2010. The average income in the riding was $54,590 compared to $47,097 in 2010.[2][6] The most spoken non-official language in the riding is Russian (14.5%) and 16.4% of the population is of Russian ethnic origin. The second largest ethnic origin is Chinese with 11.2% in 2016. About 37% of the riding's population is part of a visible minority.[2] The riding also has a large Jewish population (37.1% in 2011[6]) and has been cited as showing voting trends among Jewish populations.[7] The riding has a higher rate of postsecondary certificates, diplomas, and degrees than the Ontario average (66% compared to 55% for those aged 15+).[2] The riding has been described as a Conservative stronghold.[8]

Demographics

[edit]
Population, 2021 census[9] 115,292
Electors 85,739
Area (km2) 62.66
Population density (people per km2) 1,839.8

Religion in Thornhill (2021)[10]

  Christian (33.5%)
  Jewish (30.5%)
  No Religion (23.3%)
  Muslim (6.6%)
  Hindu (3.2%)
  Buddhist (1.8%)
  Other religions (1.2%)
According to the 2021 Canadian census[11]

Ethnic groups: 57% White, 11.3% Chinese, 7% West Asian, 6.3% South Asian, 5.1% Korean, 4.8% Filipino, 2.6% Black, 1.5% Latin American, 1.1% Southeast Asian

History

[edit]

1996-2004: Liberal dominance

[edit]

The riding was first established in the 1996 redistribution from parts of York North and Markham—Whitchurch—Stouffville, consisting of the part of Vaughan east of Highway 400 and south of Rutherford Road, and the part of Markham west of Highway 404.[12][13] Both of the ridings Thornhill was originally part of elected Liberal MPs in 1993, though York North's Liberal vote share was about 17% more of the vote than that of Markham—Whitchurch—Stouffville.[14] The riding's redistributed result had the Liberals at 60%, triple the amount of the Progressive Conservatives (PCs).[15] In the 1997 election, Liberal candidate Elinor Caplan, who had previously served in the cabinet of former Premier David Peterson,[16] won with 59% of the vote, more than double the number received by PC candidate Bill Fisch, who came second.[17] Similarly to the previous election,[12] the Liberals had nearly swept the province of Ontario, this time winning all but two seats.[18]

In 1999, Caplan was appointed to Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's cabinet as Minister of Citizenship and Immigration.[16] In the 2000 election, Caplan would win again, this time with nearly 65% of the vote and by more than four times the amount won by Canadian Alliance candidate Robert Goldin.[17] Provincially, the Liberals had won another near-sweep of Ontario.[19] In 2002, Chrétien moved Caplan to Minister of National Revenue.[16] During the 2003 electoral redistribution, the boundaries of the district did not change.[13][20]

2004-2011: Shift to the Conservatives

[edit]
Peter Kent with then-party leader Andrew Scheer in 2018 stating their position of the status of Jerusalem. The Conservatives' support for Israel was partially responsible for the riding's political shift.[21]

On February 23, 2004, Caplan announced that she would not run in the next federal election. The Liberals then chose Susan Kadis, who was then a Vaughan City Councillor, as their candidate for the next election.[7][22][23] In the 2004 election, many ridings with large Jewish populations, Thornhill among them, started shifting toward the Conservative Party. The Liberal Party would end up losing 10% of the vote and they were now at 54.6%, about 20% more of the vote than Conservative candidate Josh Cooper.[7][24] In the 2006 election, both Kadis and the Conservative candidate got slightly less votes than in 2004.[25]

Shortly after the 2006 election, Kadis was chosen to be the associate critic for Infrastructure and Communities.[26] In March 2008, she was appointed National Revenue critic by Opposition Leader Stéphane Dion.[27] In the 2008 election, the Conservative Party chose Peter Kent, an established media personality who had run in Toronto-St. Paul's in 2006,[25] as their candidate. Kent would end up winning the riding with 49% of the vote compared to Kadis' 39%, possibly due to the fact that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper promised continued support for Israel.[21]

2011-present: Conservative stronghold

[edit]

Kent served as the Minister of State of Foreign Affairs for the Americas until a January 2011 cabinet shuffle when he was promoted to Minister of the Environment. This was met with some criticism as he was the fifth Environment Minister in five years. It also signalled Prime Minister Harper's determination to increase support in the Greater Toronto Area.[28] In the 2011 election, the Conservative Party targeted the riding as part of their strategy to gain a majority government and both Prime Minister Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff had campaign stops in the riding. Kent ended up increasing his vote share to 61%, compared to 24% for the Liberal candidate.[29][30]

During the 2012 redistribution, the area of the riding east of Bayview Avenue was divided along Highway 407, with portions being transferred to Richmond Hill and the new riding of Markham—Thornhill.[20][31] Concerns were raised about dividing the Thornhill neighbourhood into two ridings, suggesting that Concord (which includes Vaughan Metropolitan Centre) be excluded from the riding instead. The name of the riding was also an issue, as the proposed name, "Vaughan—Thornhill" was thought to exclude the Markham portion.[5] Markham was initially added to the name before Kent suggested reverting it back to "Thornhill". His suggestion was accepted by the commission.[32] The redistributed result put the Conservatives 2% higher than the actual result.[30][33] In July 2013, Kent was shuffled out of cabinet, becoming a backbench MP.[34] During his tenure, critics had described him as "Canada's worst environment minister."[35][36]

In the 2015 election, Kent lost about 5% of the vote, now receiving 58.6% to the Liberal candidate's 33.7%.[33] Shortly after the 2015 election, Kent became the Conservative Foreign Affairs critic.[37] After a 2017 shadow cabinet shuffle, Kent became the Conservatives' Ethics critic.[38] In 2019, Kent won his fourth consecutive election with 54.6% of the vote to Liberal candidate Gary Gladstone's 35.4%.[39][40] After the 2019 election, Kent was appointed critic on immigration, refugees, and citizenship.[41] In 2021, Kent announced he would not run in the next election.[42]

Following this, Melissa Lantsman won the nomination to represent the Conservative Party in Thornhill. On September 20, 2021, Melissa Lantsman won the riding of Thornhill by a 15-point margin.

Members of Parliament

[edit]

This riding has elected the following members of the House of Commons of Canada:

Parliament Years Member Party
Thornhill
Riding created from Markham—Whitchurch—Stouffville
and York North
36th  1997–2000     Elinor Caplan Liberal
37th  2000–2004
38th  2004–2006 Susan Kadis
39th  2006–2008
40th  2008–2011     Peter Kent Conservative
41st  2011–2015
42nd  2015–2019
43rd  2019–2021
44th  2021–present Melissa Lantsman

Election results

[edit]
Graph of general election results in Thornhill (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)


2021 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Melissa Lantsman 25,687 51.3% -3.26% $105,101.06
Liberal Gary Gladstone 18,168 36.3% +0.88% $92,712.82
New Democratic Raz Razvi 3,041 6.1% -0.38% $4,940.19
People's Samuel Greenfield 2,322 4.6% – $9,751.81
Green Daniella Mikanovsky 844 1.7% -1.29% $0.00
Total valid votes / Expense limit 50,062 99.2 0.28 $114,997.02
Total rejected ballots 390 0.77 -0.31
Turnout 50,452 58.8 -4.82
Eligible voters 85,739 76.06% 0.66%
Conservative hold Swing -4.14
Source: Elections Canada[43]
2021 federal election redistributed results[44]
Party Vote %
  Conservative 27,071 51.72
  Liberal 18,876 36.06
  New Democratic 3,126 5.97
  People's 2,408 4.60
  Green 861 1.64
2019 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter Kent 29,187 54.56 -4.00 $70,899.51
Liberal Gary Gladstone 18,946 35.42 +1.66 $82,017.28
New Democratic Sara Petrucci 3,469 6.48 +1.32 $1.38
Green Josh Rachlis 1,600 2.99 +1.84 none listed
Rhinoceros Nathan Bregman 217 0.41 – $0.00
Canada's Fourth Front Waseem Malik 77 0.14 – none listed
Total valid votes/expense limit 53,496 98.92   111,210.50
Total rejected ballots 583 1.08 +0.49
Turnout 54,079 63.62 -3.50
Eligible voters 85,005 75.4% –
Conservative hold Swing -2.83
Source: Elections Canada[40][45]
2015 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter Kent 31,911 58.56 -4.63 $123,230.74
Liberal Nancy Coldham 18,395 33.76 +11.26 $55,910.58
New Democratic Lorne Cherry 2,814 5.16 -6.33 $6,832.09
Green Josh Rachlis 627 1.15 -1.33 –
Libertarian Gene Balfour 587 1.08 – $202.00
Seniors Margaret Leigh Fairbairn 157 0.29 – $4,584.13
Total valid votes/expense limit 54,491 99.41   $216,565.52
Total rejected ballots 324 0.59 –
Turnout 54,815 67.12 –
Eligible voters 81,672
Source: Elections Canada[46][47][33]
2011 federal election redistributed results[33]
Party Vote %
  Conservative 29,140 63.19
  Liberal 10,373 22.49
  New Democratic 5,299 11.49
  Green 1,142 2.48
  Others 160 0.35
2011 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter Kent 36,629 61.38 +12.37 $85,817.95
Liberal Karen Mock 14,125 23.67 -15.76 $89,258.36
New Democratic Simon Strelchik 7,141 11.97 +5.35 $5,397.91
Green Norbert Koehl 1,562 2.62 -2.32 $11,470.40
Animal Alliance Liz White 215 0.36 – $7,002.05
Total valid votes/expense limit 59,672 100.00 – $99,784.20
Total rejected ballots 275 0.46 –
Turnout 59,947 60.98 –
Eligible voters 98,312 – –
Source: Elections Canada[48]
2008 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Conservative Peter Kent 26,660 49.01 +15.30 $91,400
Liberal Susan Kadis 21,448 39.43 -13.67 $62,484
New Democratic Simon Strelchik 3,601 6.62 -1.19 $4,835
Green Norbert Koehl 2,686 4.94 +1.51 $7,314
Total valid votes/expense limit 54,395 100.00 – $95,547
Source: Elections Canada[49]
2006 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Susan Kadis 29,934 53.10 -1.48
Conservative Anthony Reale 19,005 33.71 -0.75
New Democratic Simon Strelchik 4,405 7.81 +0.83
Green Lloyd Helferty 1,934 3.43 +0.35
Progressive Canadian Mark Abramowitz 1,094 1.94
Total valid votes 56,372 100.00
Source: Elections Canada[50]
2004 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Susan Kadis 28,709 54.58 -10.01
Conservative Josh Cooper 18,125 34.46 +3.58
New Democratic Rick Morelli 3,671 6.98 +3.05
Green Lloyd Helferty 1,622 3.08
Independent Benjamin Fitzerman 241 0.46
Independent Simion Iron 233 0.44
Total valid votes 52,601 100.00
Source: Elections Canada[24]

Note: Conservative vote is compared to the total of the Canadian Alliance vote and Progressive Conservative vote in 2000 election.

2000 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Elinor Caplan 27,152 64.59 +5.59
Alliance Robert Goldin 6,643 15.80 +7.91
Progressive Conservative Lou Watson 6,338 15.08 -11.31
New Democratic Nathan Rotman 1,653 3.93 -0.67
Canadian Action Art Jaszczyk 254 0.60
Total valid votes 42,040 100.00
Source: Elections Canada[17]

Note: Canadian Alliance vote is compared to the Reform vote in 1997 election.

1997 Canadian federal election
Party Candidate Votes %
Liberal Elinor Caplan 25,747 59.00
Progressive Conservative Bill Fisch 11,517 26.39
Reform Aurel David 3,441 7.89
New Democratic Helen Breslauer 2,008 4.60
Independent Rick Levine 303 0.69
Natural Law Linda Martin 261 0.60
Independent Sid Soban 238 0.55
Independent Shel Bergson 124 0.28
Total valid votes 43,639 100.00
Source: Elections Canada[17]
1993 federal election redistributed results[15]
Party %
  Liberal 60
  Progressive Conservative 20
  Reform 14
  New Democratic 3

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Census Profile, 2021 Census". Ottawa: Statistics Canada. 2022. Retrieved February 9, 2022.
  2. ^ a b c d "Census Profile, 2016 Census Thornhill". Statistics Canada. 2016. Retrieved December 4, 2018.
  3. ^ "Statistics Canada: Estimation of the Jewish Population". Elections Canada. 2019. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  4. ^ "The Founding of Thornhill". www.thornhillhistoric.org. Society For The Preservation of Historic Thornhill. Archived from the original on April 30, 2018. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
  5. ^ a b Persico, Amanda (October 17, 2012). "Riding realignment raises questions in Markham". Toronto.com. Torstar. Metroland Media. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
  6. ^ a b "NHS Profile, Thornhill, Ontario". Statistics Canada. 2011. Archived from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  7. ^ a b c Fleisher, Zach (June 15, 2010). "SWITCHING SIDES: THE SHIFT IN JEWISH POLITICAL SUPPORT IN CANADA". Winnipeg Jewish Review. Archived from the original on July 31, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  8. ^ Katawazi, Miriam; DeClerq, Katherine (October 21, 2019). "Who won in the 14 notable GTA ridings on Election Day?". CTV News. Bell Media. Retrieved April 30, 2020. The riding is a conservative stronghold
  9. ^ "Census Profile, 2021 Census: Thornhill [Federal electoral district], Ontario". Statistics Canada. February 9, 2022. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  10. ^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (February 8, 2023). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population Thornhill, Ontario Federal electoral district (2013 Representation Order)". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  11. ^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (February 8, 2023). "2021 National Household Survey Profile - Federal electoral district (2013 Representation Order)". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  12. ^ a b Results of the 35th Federal Election (PDF) (Map). 1:7,500,000. Elections Canada. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 5, 2017. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  13. ^ a b "Thornhill ELECTORAL DISTRICT NO. 35085". elections.ca. Elections Canada. Archived from the original on June 28, 2001. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  14. ^ "1993 Canadian Federal Election Results by electoral district". University of British Columbia. 1997. Archived from the original on October 18, 2019. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  15. ^ a b "Election Handbook: Combat Zones". Maclean's. May 26, 1997. p. 75. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  16. ^ a b c Brown, Michael (February 27, 2009). "Elinor Caplan". Jewish Women: A Comprehensive Historical Encyclopedia. Jewish Women's Archive. Archived from the original on August 2, 2016. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  17. ^ a b c d "Past Results - Thornhill". elections.ca. Elections Canada. Archived from the original on May 31, 2002. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  18. ^ PACIFIC (1997). "1997 Canadian Federal Election Results (Detail)". esm.ubc.ca. University of British Columbia. Archived from the original on April 10, 2018. Retrieved May 6, 2020.
  19. ^ Schwartz, Bryan. "Proportional Representation for Canada?" (PDF). University of British Columbia. p. 140. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 10, 2019. Retrieved May 6, 2020.
  20. ^ a b "Thornhill – Historical data". elections.ca. Elections Canada. 2003. Archived from the original on June 12, 2019. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  21. ^ a b Levy-Ajzenkopf, Andy (October 23, 2008). "Kent beats Kadis in Thornhill". The Canadian Jewish News. Archived from the original on August 8, 2020. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  22. ^ "Elinor Caplan to step down". The Globe and Mail. February 23, 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  23. ^ "COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE SEPTEMBER 7, 2004-COUNCIL VACANCY WARD 5" (PDF). September 7, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 21, 2006. Retrieved May 6, 2020.
  24. ^ a b "Poll-by-poll results of the 38th General Election". Elections Canada. 2004. Archived from the original on January 24, 2020. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  25. ^ a b "OFFICIAL VOTING RESULTS - 39th General Election". elections.ca. Elections Canada. 2006. Archived from the original on January 24, 2020. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  26. ^ St. Martin, Romeo (February 22, 2006). "Team Graham". Politics Watch. Archived from the original on November 19, 2008. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  27. ^ "Thornhill MP named critic to national revenue portfolio". Newmarket Era. Torstar. Metroland Media. January 25, 2008. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  28. ^ MacCharles, Tonda; Brennan, Richard J. (January 4, 2011). "PM boosts Toronto MPs in cabinet: Kent, Fantino promoted". Toronto Star. Torstar. Archived from the original on July 2, 2018. Retrieved May 6, 2020.
  29. ^ Woods, Allan (April 18, 2011). "A 30-seat road map to a Tory majority". Toronto Star. Torstar. Archived from the original on August 25, 2017. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  30. ^ a b Rider, David (May 3, 2011). "Liberal Karen Mock fails to unseat Tory star Peter Kent in Thornhill". Toronto Star. Torstar. Retrieved May 2, 2020.
  31. ^ Ontario Electoral Redistribution Commission (2012–2013). "Federal Redistribution Map - York" (PDF). 2012 electoral district redistribution. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 11, 2017. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
  32. ^ Ontario Electoral Redistribution Commission (2013). "Part II – Amendments to the Initial Report (July 31, 2013) – Ontario – Objections". 2012 electoral district redistribution. Archived from the original on December 11, 2017. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
  33. ^ a b c d "Thornhill, ON (2013 Rep. Order)". Pundit's Guide to Canadian Elections. Archived from the original on October 21, 2015.
  34. ^ Stone, Laura (July 16, 2013). "Shuffled out of cabinet – but hopefully not forgotten". Global News. Corus Entertainment. Archived from the original on January 11, 2020. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  35. ^ Klein, Alice (April 28, 2011). "Don't waste NDP surge opportunity". NOW Magazine. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  36. ^ Smith, Rick (July 11, 2013). "Is Peter Kent's trail of destruction finally coming to an end?". Toronto Star. Torstar. Archived from the original on May 5, 2020. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  37. ^ The Canadian Press (January 21, 2016). "Too dangerous to reopen Canadian embassy in Iran, Conservative critic warns Liberals". National Post. Postmedia. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  38. ^ Dickson, Janice (August 30, 2017). "Scheer names Poilievre finance critic, leaves Leitch out of shadow cabinet". iPolitics. Archived from the original on October 25, 2019. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  39. ^ Lewis, Michael (October 21, 2019). "Kent wins the battle and keeps his Thornhill riding Conservative". Toronto Star. Torstar. Archived from the original on February 21, 2020. Retrieved April 22, 2020.
  40. ^ a b "FORTY-THIRD GENERAL ELECTION 2019 — Poll-by-poll results (Thornhill)". elections.ca. Elections Canada. April 6, 2020. Retrieved May 6, 2020.
  41. ^ Lim, Jolson (November 29, 2019). "Tories release list of 'shadow cabinet' members". iPolitics. Archived from the original on January 21, 2020. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  42. ^ "Longtime Conservative MP Peter Kent won't run again in key riding for the party". CTV News. The Canadian Press. November 23, 2020. Retrieved July 16, 2021.
  43. ^ "List of confirmed candidates – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 2, 2021.
  44. ^ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  45. ^ "List of confirmed candidates". Elections Canada. Archived from the original on October 8, 2019. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  46. ^ "Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Thornhill, 30 September 2015". Archived from the original on October 4, 2015. Retrieved October 3, 2015.
  47. ^ "Elections Canada – Preliminary Election Expenses Limits for Candidates". Archived from the original on August 15, 2015. Retrieved May 7, 2020.
  48. ^ "Poll-by-poll results of the 41st General Election". Elections Canada. 2011. Archived from the original on January 24, 2020. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  49. ^ "Poll-by-poll results of the 40th General Election". Elections Canada. 2008. Archived from the original on January 24, 2020. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  50. ^ "Poll-by-poll results of the 39th Canadian Election". Elections Canada. 2006. Archived from the original on January 24, 2020. Retrieved May 3, 2020.

Sources

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43°48′40″N 79°25′25″W / 43.8112°N 79.4236°W / 43.8112; -79.4236

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