French
DeutschUnited States presidential straw polls in Guam
 | |
| Number of straw polls | 12 |
|---|---|
| Voted Democratic | 8 |
| Voted Republican | 4 |
| Voted for winning candidate | 9 |
| Voted for losing candidate | 3 |
Because it is a U.S. territory instead of a U.S. state, voters in Guam are ineligible to elect members of the Electoral College, who would then cast direct electoral votes for president and vice president. The territory nonetheless conducts a non-binding straw poll on the day of the presidential general election to gauge the preference for president every election year.[1]
The poll has been held in Guam during every presidential election since 1980.[1] It was established after the Legislature of Guam passed Public Law 15-49, which requires the Guam Election Commission to conduct the poll. The law also instructs the chairman of the board of the Guam Election Commission to essentially conduct a meeting of electors like those in the states and act as the territory's sole elector, including formally casting an electoral college ballot for the presidential ticket receiving the highest number of votes in the territory, and then officially sending the result to the U.S. Congress.[2]
Because Guam is 15 hours ahead of the contiguous United States, the poll is regarded as an indicator of how the rest of the country will vote.[3] The territory is home to three U.S. military bases and current and former service members and has historically had a higher voter turnout than the mainland.[4] Since 1980, the results of the Guam poll have aligned with the results of the mainland, except in three instances: in 1980, when the islanders favored Jimmy Carter instead of eventual winner Ronald Reagan, in 2016, when they favored Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump, and in 2024, when they favored Kamala Harris instead of Donald Trump.
Results
[edit] |
Winners of the territory are in bold.
Democratic Party – (D) Green Party – (G) Independent candidate – (I) Libertarian Party – (LI) Republican Party – (R)
|
| Year | Winner | Runner-up | Other candidate[a] | Ref. | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | % | Candidate | Votes | % | Candidate | Votes | % | |||||
| 2024 | Kamala Harris (D) | 13,510 | 49.46 | Donald Trump (R)‡ | 12,624 | 46.22 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) | 938 | 3.43 | [5] | |||
| 2020 | Joe Biden (D)‡ | 14,610 | 55.38 | Donald Trump (R) | 11,058 | 41.91 | Howie Hawkins (G) | 185 | 0.70 | [6][7] | |||
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton (D) | 23,052 | 71.62 | Donald Trump[b] (R)‡ | 7,779 | 24.17 | Mimi Soltysik (S) | 1,357 | 4.22 | [3][7] | |||
| 2012 | Barack Obama (D)‡ | 22,688 | 72.51 | Mitt Romney (R) | 8,252 | 26.37 | Gary Johnson (LI) | 351 | 1.12 | [7] | |||
| 2008 | Barack Obama (D)‡ | 20,119 | 57.33 | John McCain (R) | 11,941 | 34.03 | [7] | ||||||
| 2004 | George W. Bush (R)‡ | 21,490 | 64.08 | John Kerry (D) | 11,781 | 35.13 | [7] | ||||||
| 2000 | George W. Bush[b] (R)‡ | 18,075 | 51.58 | Al Gore (D) | 16,549 | 47.22 | [7] | ||||||
| 1996 | Bill Clinton (D)‡ | 19,265 | 59.67 | Bob Dole (R) | 12,524 | 38.79 | [2][8][7] | ||||||
| 1992 | Bill Clinton (D)‡ | 10,233 | 59.11 | George H. W. Bush (R) | 6,817 | 39.38 | [7] | ||||||
| 1988 | George H. W. Bush (R)‡ | 14,241 | 58.84 | Michael Dukakis (D) | 9,646 | 39.86 | [7] | ||||||
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan (R)‡ | 17,259 | 63.97 | Walter Mondale (D) | 9,429 | 34.95 | [7] | ||||||
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter (D) | 14,352 | 57.01 | Ronald Reagan (R)‡ | 9,658 | 38.37 | John B. Anderson (I) | 954 | 3.79 | [7] | |||
Notes
[edit]- ^ For purpose of this list, other candidates are defined as those who were in third place in Guam.
- ^ a b Won the electoral college while losing the popular vote
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Guam's Straw Poll Picks Obama, Overwhelmingly". National Public Radio. November 6, 2012.
- ^ a b "2012 Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission. July 5, 2013. p. 39. Retrieved May 27, 2020.
- ^ a b "Guam, which has historically predicted election winner, picks Clinton". USA Today. November 8, 2016.
- ^ "Guam's voters tend to predict the presidency — but they have no say in the Electoral College". PRI.org. November 8, 2016.
- ^ "2024 GENERAL ELECTION UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SUMMARY 1.pdf". Google Drive. Guam Election Commission. p. 10. Retrieved 5 November 2024.
- ^ "Summary Results Report" (PDF). November 4, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission.
- ^ Arroyo, Rafael H. (7 November 1996). "Guam Republicans Poised to Control New Legislature" (PDF). Marianas Variety. Vol. 25, no. 171. p. 6. Retrieved 22 October 2020.