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Deutsch2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut
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| Elections in Connecticut |
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The 2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Obama and Biden carried Connecticut with 58.1% of the popular vote to Romney's and Ryan's 40.7%, thus winning the state's seven electoral votes.[1] Romney managed to flip the traditionally Republican Litchfield County, which Obama had won in 2008.[2] As of the 2020 United States presidential election, this was the last election that the Democratic presidential nominee won Windham County.
To date, this is the last time that the last time that the towns of Berlin, Bozrah, Brooklyn, Chaplin, East Haven, Franklin, Griswold, Killingly, Lebanon, Lisbon, Naugatuck, North Branford, North Haven, North Stonington, Plainfield, Plainville, Putnam, Salem, Southington, Sprague, Stafford, Union, and Voluntown voted Democratic and the last time that the towns of Avon, Darien, East Granby, Easton, Granby, Greenwich, New Canaan, Newtown, Orange, Ridgefield, and Wilton voted Republican.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]As Barack Obama was the only candidate to qualify, no Democratic primary was held.[3]
Republican primary
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 Connecticut results by county Mitt Romney (Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012.[4] It was a closed primary, open only to Republican electors. 25 of the state's 28 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention were decided by the primary outcome, with the other 3 being superdelegates: the state party chairman and the state's two Republican National Committee representatives.
Mitt Romney won the primary by a wide margin, garnering two-thirds of the vote. Only 14.4% of active registered Republicans participated in the primary, the lowest turnout since the primary format was put in place in the state in 1980.[5]
Process
[edit]After switching from proportional distribution of delegates to a winner-take-all system in 1996,[6] the Connecticut Republican Party voted in September 2011 to award delegates by a hybrid winner-take-all and proportional distribution process beginning with the 2012 primary. Of the 25 regular delegates at stake in the primary, the party called for three delegates to be awarded to the winner of each of the state's five congressional districts on a winner-take-all basis for a total of 15 delegates. The remaining 10 would be distributed proportionally based on the statewide vote total among candidates receiving at least 20% support unless a candidate won a majority of the statewide vote, in which case the candidate would receive all 10 of these delegates.[6][7]
With Romney's primary day wins in all five congressional districts and a majority of the statewide vote, he was able to claim all 25 of the delegates at stake.
Opinion polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[8] Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 429 | Mar. 14–19, 2012 | Mitt Romney 42% | Rick Santorum 19% | Newt Gingrich 13% | Ron Paul 9%, Won't vote 3%, Don't know/No answer 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[9] Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 | Sep. 22–25, 2011 | Mitt Romney 25% | Rick Perry 18% | Herman Cain 10% | Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/not sure 12% |
| Mitt Romney 45% | Rick Perry 36% | – | not sure 19% | ||
| Quinnipiac[10] Margin of error: ±5.4% Sample size: 332 | Sep. 8–13, 2011 | Mitt Romney 37% | Rick Perry 19% | Michele Bachmann 8% | Sarah Palin 4%, Herman Cain 3%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Ron Paul 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, someone else/undecided 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[11] Margin of error: ±7.3% Sample size: 180 | Oct. 27–29, 2010 | Mitt Romney 28% | Mike Huckabee 15% | Newt Gingrich 14% | Sarah Palin 11%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mike Pence 5%, Mitch Daniels 4%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 18% |
 2012 U.S. presidential election | |
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| Democratic Party | |
| Republican Party | |
| Minor parties | |
| Related races | |
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Results
[edit]| 2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary[12] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
 Mitt Romney | 40,171 | 67.43% | 25 |
| Ron Paul | 8,032 | 13.48% | 0 |
| Newt Gingrich | 6,135 | 10.30% | 0 |
| Rick Santorum | 4,072 | 6.83% | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 1,168 | 1.96% | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | ||
| Total: | 59,578 | 100% | 25 |
Official source reports a turnout of 59,639, with the difference from 59,578 likely due to blank ballots.
| Key: | Suspended campaign prior to contest |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Huffington Post[13] | Safe D | November 6, 2012 |
| CNN[14] | Safe D | November 6, 2012 |
| New York Times[15] | Safe D | November 6, 2012 |
| Washington Post[16] | Safe D | November 6, 2012 |
| RealClearPolitics[17] | Solid D | November 6, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Solid D | November 5, 2012 |
| FiveThirtyEight[19] | Solid D | November 6, 2012 |
Ballot access
[edit]- Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
- Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
- Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
- Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice
Write-in candidate access:
- Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
- Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
- Raymond Sizemore/Vicki Tomalin, Independent
Results
[edit]| 2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama (incumbent) | Joe Biden (incumbent) | 905,109 | 58.06% | 7 | |
| Republican | Mitt Romney | Paul Ryan | 634,899 | 40.72% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | Jim Gray | 12,580 | 0.81% | 0 | |
| Justice | Rocky Anderson | Luis J. Rodriguez | 5,487 | 0.35% | 0 | |
| Green (Write-in) | Jill Stein (Write-in) | Cheri Honkala | 863 | 0.06% | 0 | |
| American Independent (Write-in) | Thomas Hoefling (Write-in) | Jonathan D. Ellis | 25 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Write-ins | Write-ins | 25 | 0.00% | 0 | ||
| Socialist Workers (Write-in) | James Harris (Write-in) | Maura DeLuca | 5 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,558,960 | 100.00% | 7 | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Barack Obama Democratic | Mitt Romney Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Fairfield | 217,294 | 54.85% | 175,168 | 44.22% | 3,668 | 0.93% | 42,126 | 10.63% | 396,130 |
| Hartford | 244,639 | 62.37% | 143,238 | 36.52% | 4,363 | 1.11% | 101,401 | 25.85% | 392,240 |
| Litchfield | 43,856 | 47.45% | 47,201 | 51.07% | 1,370 | 1.48% | -3,345 | -3.62% | 92,427 |
| Middlesex | 47,855 | 57.29% | 34,591 | 41.41% | 1,092 | 1.30% | 13,264 | 15.88% | 83,538 |
| New Haven | 218,998 | 60.65% | 138,364 | 38.32% | 3,697 | 1.03% | 80,634 | 22.33% | 361,059 |
| New London | 67,144 | 58.33% | 46,119 | 40.07% | 1,839 | 1.60% | 21,025 | 18.26% | 115,102 |
| Tolland | 39,366 | 55.45% | 30,450 | 42.89% | 1,175 | 1.66% | 8,916 | 12.56% | 70,991 |
| Windham | 25,957 | 55.72% | 19,768 | 42.43% | 863 | 1.85% | 6,189 | 13.29% | 46,588 |
| Totals | 905,109 | 58.06% | 634,899 | 40.72% | 18,985 | 1.22% | 270,210 | 17.34% | 1,558,993 |
| Democratic Hold | Republican Gain from Democratic |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Litchfield (largest city: Torrington) [2]
By congressional district
[edit]Obama won all 5 congressional districts.[20]
| District | Obama | Romney | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63.3% | 35.6% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 55.9% | 42.57% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 62.6% | 36.3% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 55.07% | 44.02% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 53.53% | 45.31% | Elizabeth Esty |
Analysis
[edit]Voter demographics
[edit]| Demographic subgroup | Obama | Romney | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 93 | 6 | 28 |
| Moderates | 56 | 42 | 47 |
| Conservatives | 19 | 80 | 24 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 94 | 6 | 41 |
| Republicans | 9 | 91 | 26 |
| Independents | 51 | 46 | 32 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 66 | 30 | 13 |
| 30–44 years old | 55 | 44 | 24 |
| 45–64 years old | 58 | 41 | 43 |
| 65 and older | 54 | 46 | 20 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 51 | 47 | 47 |
| Women | 63 | 36 | 53 |
| Marital status | |||
| Married | 54 | 45 | 64 |
| Unmarried | 65 | 33 | 36 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 51 | 48 | 79 |
| Black | 93 | 7 | 11 |
| Latino | 79 | 20 | 6 |
| Education | |||
| Never attended college | 62 | 37 | 41 |
| Some college education | 60 | 39 | 24 |
| College graduate | 49 | 49 | 31 |
| Advanced degree | 60 | 38 | 29 |
| Income | |||
| Under $30K | 73 | 24 | 12 |
| $30K-$49K | 73 | 26 | 13 |
| $50K or more | 53 | 46 | 75 |
| $100K or more | 53 | 46 | 46 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Connecticut
- Presidency of Barack Obama
- 2012 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Connecticut Republican Party
References
[edit]- ^ "Connecticut Statement of Vote". CT SoS. Archived from the original on December 7, 2012. Retrieved January 19, 2013.
- ^ a b "2012 Connecticut Presidential Results". POLITICO. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
- ^ "Merrill: No Democratic Presidential Preference Primary in Connecticut, Only Four Candidates for Republican Ballot on April 24th" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 5, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
- ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
- ^ "Merrill Releases Turnout Figure From 2012 Presidential Preference Primary, Romney Wins All 25 Delegates at Stake" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State. April 25, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2012.
- ^ a b Vigdor, Neil (September 28, 2011). "State GOP moves away from winner-take-all presidential primary". GreenwichTime.com. Retrieved April 26, 2012.
- ^ "Connecticut Republican State Central Committee Rules and Bylaws" (PDF). September 27, 2011. Section 17. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 12, 2012. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 29, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
- ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
- ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
- ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
- ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
- ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times.
External links
[edit]- The Green Papers: for Connecticut
- The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order
