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Deutsch2012 United States Senate election in Maryland
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| Turnout | 68.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Cardin: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Bongino: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Maryland |
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 Government |
The 2012 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate, House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Ben Cardin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Dan Bongino and independent Rob Sobhani.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Raymond Blagmon[1]
- Ben Cardin, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
- J.P. Cusick[1]
- Christopher Garner, engineer and businessman[3]
- Ralph Jaffe, former political science teacher[1]
- C. Anthony Muse, State Senator[4]
- Blaine Taylor
- Ed Tinus
- Lih Young, perennial candidate[1]
Results
[edit]
Cardin—80–90%
Cardin—70–80%
Cardin—60–70%
Cardin—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Cardin (incumbent) | 240,704 | 74.2 | |
| Democratic | C. Anthony Muse | 50,807 | 15.7 | |
| Democratic | Chris Garner | 9,274 | 2.9 | |
| Democratic | Raymond Levi Blagmon | 5,909 | 1.8 | |
| Democratic | J. P. Cusick | 4,778 | 1.5 | |
| Democratic | Blaine Taylor | 4,376 | 1.3 | |
| Democratic | Lih Young | 3,993 | 1.2 | |
| Democratic | Ralph Jaffe | 3,313 | 1.0 | |
| Democratic | Ed Tinus | 1,064 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 324,218 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Joseph Alexander
- Dan Bongino, former United States Secret Service agent[8]
- Bro Broadus
- William Capps[1]
- Richard Douglas, attorney and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense[9]
- Rick Hoover[1]
- David Jones[10]
- John B. Kimble, behavioral scientist and perennial candidate
- Brian Vaeth, retired firefighter
- Corrogan R. Vaughn, perennial candidate[1]
Declined
[edit]- Bob Ehrlich, former Governor of Maryland[11]
- Brian Murphy, candidate for Governor in 2010[12]
- Eric Wargotz, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[13]
Results
[edit]
Bongino—40–50%
Bongino—<40%
Douglas—<40%
Douglas—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Bongino | 68,597 | 33.6 | |
| Republican | Richard J. Douglas | 57,776 | 28.3 | |
| Republican | Joseph Alexander | 18,171 | 8.9 | |
| Republican | Bro Broadus | 11,020 | 5.4 | |
| Republican | Rick Hoover | 10,787 | 5.3 | |
| Republican | John B. Kimble | 10,506 | 5.1 | |
| Republican | David Jones | 8,380 | 4.1 | |
| Republican | Corrogan R. Vaughn | 8,158 | 4.0 | |
| Republican | William Thomas Capps, Jr. | 7,092 | 3.5 | |
| Republican | Brian Vaeth | 3,781 | 1.9 | |
| Total votes | 204,268 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Ben Cardin (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator and former U.S. Representative
- Daniel Bongino (Republican), former United States Secret Service agent
- Dean Ahmad (Libertarian), president of the Minaret of Freedom Institute
- S. Rob Sobhani (independent), chairman and CEO of Caspian Group Holdings
- Brandy Baker (Socialist, certified write-in)[14]
Debates
[edit]A candidate's forum was held on Baltimore's WOLB radio on October 24 including Senator Ben Cardin, Rob Sobhani, Dean Ahmad and Daniel Bongino.[15][16] An October 30 debate at Salisbury University to have featured those candidates and independent Ed Tinus[17] was cancelled in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.[18]
Campaign
[edit]In 2006, then-U.S. Representative Ben Cardin defeated then-Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele 54%–44%. Eric Wargotz, the Republican nominee in 2010 had considered entering the race but ultimately did not.
In both 2009 and 2010, National Journal magazine rated Cardin as tied for most liberal senator, based on his voting record. As of June 30, Cardin had $1.8 million in his campaign account.[19]
Fundraising
[edit]| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Cardin (D) | $3,758,957 | $2,248,013 | $1,896,329 | $0 |
| Daniel Bongino (R) | $188,419 | $172,509 | $15,909 | $0 |
| Dean Ahmad (L) | $8,565 | $6,288 | $2,276 | $0 |
| S. Rob Sobhani (I) | $6,472,715 | $6,043,030 | $429,683 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[20][21][22][23] | ||||
Top contributors
[edit]| Ben Cardin | Contribution | Daniel Bongino | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exelon Corp | $39,250 | Avjet Corp | $5,000 |
| News Corp | $35,375 | Citizens United | $5,000 |
| Johns Hopkins University | $30,300 | Oheka Castle | $5,000 |
| Comcast Corp | $26,123 | Miller & Long Concrete Construction | $4,891 |
| Ernst & Young | $26,000 | Perinatal Center of Oklahoma | $4,790 |
| Gallagher, Evelius & Jones | $24,250 | NORPAC | $21,730 |
| Venable LLP | $23,750 | NYPD | $3,950 |
| DLA Piper | $23,250 | Fitzgerald Shamrock Restaurant | $3,947 |
| DaVita Inc. | $22,000 | Davidsonville Veterinary Clinic | $3,250 |
| Blue Cross & Blue Shield | $20,750 | Constitutional Conservatives Fund | $2,500 |
Top industries
[edit]| Ben Cardin | Contribution | Daniel Bongino | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $441,242 | Retired | $20,152 |
| Real Estate | $354,920 | General Contractors | $8,641 |
| Health Professionals | $317,509 | Civil Servants/Public Officials | $8,135 |
| Financial Institutions | $301,161 | Health Professionals | $6,540 |
| Pro-Israel | $236,792 | Real Estate | $5,700 |
| Retired | $222,410 | Republican/Conservative | $5,500 |
| Lobbyists | $213,559 | Lodging/Tourism | $5,000 |
| Insurance | $191,300 | Computers/Internet | $4,110 |
| Leadership PACs | $191,000 | Food industry & Beverage | $3,947 |
| Entertainment industry | $188,806 | Financial Institutions | $3,800 |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[29] | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ben Cardin (D) | Daniel Bongino (R) | Rob Sobhani (I) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies[30] | September 17–23, 2012 | 813 | ±3.5% | 50% | 22% | 21% | — | 7% |
| Washington Post[31] | October 11–15, 2012 | 843 | ±4% | 53% | 22% | 14% | 2% | 9% |
| OpinionWorks[32] | October 20–23, 2012 | 801 | ±3.5% | 50% | 24% | 14% | 2% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ben Cardin (D) | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | July 10–12, 2010 | 569 | ±4.1% | 51% | 33% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ben Cardin (D) | Michael Steele (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | July 10–12, 2010 | 569 | ±4.1% | 58% | 28% | — | 14% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Cardin (incumbent) | 1,474,028 | 55.98% | +1.77% | |
| Republican | Dan Bongino | 693,291 | 26.33% | −17.86% | |
| Independent | Rob Sobhani | 430,934 | 16.37% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Dean Ahmad | 32,252 | 1.22% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,729 | 0.10% | +0.05% | ||
| Total votes | 2,633,234 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Ben Cardin Democratic | Dan Bongino Republican | Rob Sobhani Independent | Dean Ahmad Libertarian | Other Other | Margin | Total Votes Cast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Allegany | 9507 | 33.38% | 14667 | 51.50% | 3920 | 14.60% | 367 | 1.29% | 18 | 0.06% | -5160 | -18.12% | 28479 |
| Anne Arundel | 108328 | 42.62% | 93804 | 36.90% | 48503 | 19.08% | 3320 | 1.31% | 241 | 0.09% | 14524 | 5.71% | 254196 |
| Baltimore | 198290 | 52.55% | 95297 | 25.25% | 78887 | 20.91% | 4434 | 1.18% | 439 | 0.12% | 102993 | 27.29% | 377347 |
| Baltimore City | 189128 | 77.21% | 16931 | 6.91% | 35724 | 14.58% | 2930 | 1.20% | 232 | 0.09% | 172197 | 62.63% | 244945 |
| Calvert | 17296 | 39.36% | 17272 | 39.31% | 8806 | 20.04% | 523 | 1.19% | 43 | 0.10% | 24 | 0.05% | 43940 |
| Caroline | 4423 | 33.93% | 5898 | 45.24% | 2575 | 19.75% | 122 | 0.94% | 18 | 0.14% | -1475 | -11.31% | 13036 |
| Carroll | 22837 | 26.69% | 41795 | 48.86% | 19733 | 23.07% | 1118 | 1.31% | 66 | 0.08% | -18958 | -22.16% | 85549 |
| Cecil | 14994 | 36.41% | 18452 | 44.81% | 7137 | 17.33% | 549 | 1.33% | 47 | 0.11% | -3458 | -8.40% | 41179 |
| Charles | 42638 | 58.24% | 16752 | 22.88% | 13036 | 17.81% | 721 | 0.98% | 58 | 0.08% | 25886 | 35.36% | 73205 |
| Dorchester | 6552 | 44.29% | 5526 | 37.36% | 2567 | 17.35% | 132 | 0.89% | 16 | 0.11% | 1026 | 6.94% | 14793 |
| Frederick | 45161 | 39.80% | 48563 | 42.80% | 17913 | 15.79% | 1720 | 1.52% | 112 | 0.10% | -3402 | -3.00% | 113469 |
| Garrett | 3448 | 27.87% | 8263 | 66.79% | 492 | 3.98% | 163 | 1.32% | 6 | 0.05% | -4815 | -38.92% | 12372 |
| Harford | 43274 | 35.04% | 45404 | 36.77% | 33148 | 26.84% | 1535 | 1.24% | 126 | 0.10% | -2130 | -1.72% | 123487 |
| Howard | 80265 | 53.66% | 42892 | 28.67% | 23815 | 15.92% | 2462 | 1.65% | 148 | 0.10% | 37373 | 24.98% | 149582 |
| Kent | 4312 | 44.45% | 3608 | 37.20% | 1660 | 17.11% | 88 | 0.91% | 32 | 0.33% | 704 | 7.26% | 9700 |
| Montgomery | 293715 | 66.21% | 94010 | 21.19% | 49611 | 11.18% | 5790 | 1.31% | 455 | 0.10% | 199705 | 45.02% | 443581 |
| Prince George's | 305771 | 81.40% | 25080 | 6.68% | 40937 | 10.90% | 3521 | 0.94% | 339 | 0.09% | 280691 | 70.50% | 375648 |
| Queen Anne's | 7385 | 30.13% | 12540 | 51.15% | 4344 | 17.72% | 217 | 0.89% | 28 | 0.11% | -5155 | -21.03% | 24514 |
| St. Mary's | 17566 | 38.29% | 19480 | 42.46% | 8065 | 17.58% | 723 | 1.58% | 42 | 0.09% | -1914 | -4.17% | 45876 |
| Somerset | 4686 | 46.70% | 3568 | 35.56% | 1682 | 16.76% | 86 | 0.86% | 13 | 0.13% | 1118 | 11.14% | 10035 |
| Talbot | 8100 | 40.46% | 8986 | 44.89% | 2729 | 13.63% | 173 | 0.86% | 32 | 0.16% | -886 | -4.43% | 20020 |
| Washington | 19702 | 32.56% | 28161 | 46.53% | 11788 | 19.48% | 824 | 1.36% | 41 | 0.07% | -8459 | -13.98% | 60516 |
| Wicomico | 16974 | 41.41% | 15072 | 36.77% | 8426 | 20.56% | 452 | 1.10% | 63 | 0.15% | 1902 | 4.64% | 40987 |
| Worcester | 9676 | 36.21% | 11270 | 42.18% | 5436 | 20.34% | 282 | 1.06% | 56 | 0.21% | -1594 | -5.97% | 26720 |
| Total | 1474028 | 55.98% | 693291 | 26.33% | 430934 | 16.37% | 32252 | 1.22% | 2729 | 0.10% | 780737 | 28.90% | 2633234 |
- Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Anne Arundel (largest municipality: Annapolis)
- Calvert (largest municipality: Chesapeake Beach)
- Dorchester (largest municipality: Cambridge)
- Somerset (largest municipality: Princess Anne)
- Wicomico (largest municipality: Salisbury)
By congressional district
[edit]Cardin won 7 of 8 congressional districts.[35]
| District | Cardin | Bongino | Sobhani | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 31% | 43% | 24% | Andy Harris |
| 2nd | 53% | 23% | 23% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
| 3rd | 53% | 26% | 19% | John Sarbanes |
| 4th | 68% | 17% | 14% | Donna Edwards |
| 5th | 57% | 24% | 18% | Steny Hoyer |
| 6th | 46% | 37% | 15% | John Delaney |
| 7th | 64% | 18% | 16% | Elijah Cummings |
| 8th | 53% | 30% | 15% | Chris Van Hollen |
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g "Md. Former Teacher Plans Run for U.S. Senate". CBS Baltimore. Associated Press. September 21, 2011. Retrieved September 30, 2011.
- ^ "Maryland Politics: Cardin to kick off campaign - Politics and Policy from Baltimore, Annapolis and Washington". The Baltimore Sun.
- ^ "Political Notes: O'Malley receives planning award". The Capital. Annapolis, Maryland. January 12, 2012.
- ^ Fritze, John (January 5, 2012). "State Sen. Muse to challenge Cardin for Senate". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on July 24, 2012.
- ^ Fritze, John (April 3, 2012). "Ben Cardin wins Senate primary". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on April 29, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
- ^ a b "Ex-agent Bongino wins Republican Senate primary; will face Sen. Benjamin Cardin in November". The Washington Post. April 4, 2012. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved April 4, 2012.
- ^ a b "Official 2012 Presidential Primary Election results for U.S. Senator". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 26, 2012.
- ^ "Ex-Secret Service Agent To Run For Senate". CBS Baltimore. Associated Press. May 31, 2011.
- ^ "John Bolton says Md. is "winnable" for GOP". The Baltimore Sun. March 6, 2012. Retrieved December 1, 2014.
- ^ "Politics1 Online Guide to Maryland Politics". politics1.com. November 28, 2011. Retrieved December 3, 2011.
- ^ Farrell, Liam (December 8, 2010). "Ehrlich not interested in another office". The Capital. Archived from the original on December 10, 2010. Retrieved December 10, 2010.
- ^ "Maryland Politics: Murphy to chair Senate campaign, not run, in 2012 - Politics and Policy from Baltimore, Annapolis and Washington". The Baltimore Sun.
- ^ Fritze, John (November 3, 2011). "Wargotz forgoes Senate run". The Baltimore Sun. Retrieved February 2, 2012.
- ^ "Facebook". Facebook.
- ^ Razzi, Robin (October 24, 2012). "Senatorial Debate 2012: What You Missed". WOLB. Retrieved October 25, 2012.
- ^ White, Brian (October 25, 2012). "Maryland Senate candidates debate on economy". Cumberland Times-News. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- ^ "Maryland Gazette Political Notes: Cardin, Bongino, Sobhani set first debate in Salisbury". Maryland Gazette. October 20, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- ^ Kunkle, Fredrick (November 2, 2012). "Rob Sobhani, independent in Maryland Senate race, makes closing argument". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
Hurricane Sandy forced Salisbury University to call off a debate that would have put him on the same stage with Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin (D) and Republican challenger Daniel Bongino.
- ^ Wagner, John; Pershing, Ben (September 28, 2011). "In Md., Anthony Muse considers primary challenge to Sen. Cardin". The Washington Post.
- ^ Ben Cardin
- ^ Daniel Bongino Campaign Finances
- ^ "Committee/Candidate Search".
- ^ S. Rob Sobhani Campaign Finances
- ^ "Congressional Elections: Maryland Senate Race: 2012 Cycle - OpenSecrets".
- ^ "Congressional Elections: New York District 01 Race: 2012 Cycle - OpenSecrets".
- ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies
- ^ Washington Post
- ^ OpinionWorks
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ 2012 General Election Results, Maryland State Board of Elections, November 28, 2012. Retrieved January 16, 2018.
- ^ https://www.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2012/election_data/State_Congressional_Districts_2012_General.csv
External links
[edit]- Maryland State Board of Elections
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
- Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
- United States Senate elections in Maryland, 2012 at Ballotpedia
Daniel Bongino
- Daniel Bongino for U.S. Senate
- Financial information (federal office) at the Federal Election Commission
- Profile at Vote Smart
Ben Cardin
Rob Sobhani
