2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout55.0%
 
Nominee Martin Heinrich Mick Rich Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 376,998 212,813 107,201
Percentage 54.09% 30.53% 15.38%
Heinrich:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Rich:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico
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The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term.[1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for President of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.[2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 152,145 100%
Total votes 152,145 100%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Mick Rich, businessman[4]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mick Rich 67,502 100%
Total votes 67,502 100%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.[8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.[9]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew nomination

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Aubrey Dunn 623 100%
Total votes 623 100%

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Martin Heinrich (D)

U.S. Senators

Organizations

Mick Rich (R)

Governors

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Gary Johnson (L)

Governors

U.S. Senators

Statewide officials

State Representatives

Local officeholders

Journalists

Newspapers

Organizations

  • Libertarian Youth Caucus[37]
  • New Mexico Open Primaries[38]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Safe D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[40] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Safe D November 1, 2018
Fox News[42] Likely D November 1, 2018
CNN[43] Safe D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[44] Safe D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[45] Safe D November 6, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Mick
Rich (R) 		Gary
Johnson (L) 		Undecided
Research Co.[46] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 47% 33% 11% 9%
Carroll Strategies[47] November 1, 2018 1,202 ± 2.8% 51% 38% 8% 3%
Research & Polling, Inc.[48] October 26 – November 1, 2018 993 ± 3.1% 51% 31% 12% 6%
Emerson College[49] October 24–26, 2018 936 ± 3.4% 48% 32% 16% 5%
Pacific Market Research[50] October 19–24, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 40% 28% 22% 11%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[51] September 20–24, 2018 932 – 36% 10% 28% 26%
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[52] September 16–17, 2018 900 – 38% 10% 28% 24%
Research & Polling, Inc.[53] September 7–13, 2018 966 ± 3.1% 47% 26% 16% –
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)[54] August 2018 900 – 38% 13% 28% 21%
Emerson College[55] August 17–18, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 39% 11% 21% 30%
GQR Research (D-TMI)[56] August 2–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 48% 33% 17% 2%
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)[57] August 1–5, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 47% 29% 22% –
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)[58] July 31 – August 2, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 44% 30% 20% 6%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[59] July 2018 500 – 39% 25% 23% 12%
Hypothetical polling

with Mick Rich

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Mick
Rich (R) 		Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)[58] July 31 – August 2, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 55% 37% 8%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[60] July 2018 500 – 47% 29% –

with Gary Johnson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Gary
Johnson (L) 		Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)[57] August 1–5, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 50% 38% –
In Lux Research (L)[61] July 28–29, 2018 525 – 40% 42% –

with Aubrey Dunn

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Mick
Rich (R) 		Aubrey
Dunn (L) 		Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L)[62] July 2018 500 – 47% 30% 7% 16%
Carroll Strategies[63] June 15–16, 2018 1,199 ± 2.8% 50% 39% 5% 6%

Results

[edit]
2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 376,998 54.09% +3.08%
Republican Mick Rich 212,813 30.53% −14.75%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 107,201 15.38% N/A
Total votes 697,012 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]
Vote breakdown by county[64]
Martin Heinrich
Democrat 		Mick Rich
Republican 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Bernalillo 140,082 58.1% 61,932 25.7% 39,274 16.3% 241,288
Catron 550 26.9% 1,075 58.4% 217 11.8% 1,842
Chaves 5,279 31.7% 8,727 52.4% 2,666 16.0% 16,672
Cibola 3,924 55.1% 1,842 25.9% 1,355 19.0% 7,121
Colfax 2,333 49.9% 1,615 34.5% 731 15.6% 4,679
Curry 2,793 27.4% 5,896 57.9% 1,498 14.7% 10,187
De Baca 267 33.2% 342 42.5% 196 24.4% 805
Doña Ana 34,651 57.0% 18,101 29.8% 8,029 13.2% 60,781
Eddy 4,834 30.7% 8,826 56.0% 2,095 13.3% 15,755
Grant 6,763 57.3% 3,598 30.5% 1,442 12.2% 11,803
Guadalupe 1,094 65.2% 292 17.4% 292 17.4% 1,678
Harding 198 41.2% 199 41.4% 84 17.5% 481
Hidalgo 790 49.5% 607 38.1% 198 12.4% 1,595
Lea 3,331 24.1% 8,882 64.2% 1,628 11.8% 13,841
Lincoln 2,617 33.3% 4,122 52.5% 1,111 14.2% 7,850
Los Alamos 5,798 56.3% 2,576 25.0% 1,926 18.7% 10,300
Luna 3,005 48.9% 2,313 37.7% 823 13.4% 6,141
McKinley 12,409 67.5% 2,915 15.9% 3,049 16.6% 18,373
Mora 1,564 67.4% 372 16.0% 386 16.6% 2,322
Otero 6,370 37.2% 8,460 49.4% 2,291 13.4% 17,121
Quay 1,016 32.9% 1,534 49.7% 537 17.4% 3,087
Rio Arriba 8,773 68.8% 1,945 15.3% 2,035 16.0% 12,753
Roosevelt 1,277 27.6% 2,606 56.3% 750 16.2% 4,633
San Juan 12,485 33.4% 18,002 48.2% 6,876 18.4% 37,363
San Miguel 6,609 71.6% 1,298 14.1% 1,323 14.3% 9,230
Sandoval 28,198 50.9% 17,785 32.1% 9,397 17.0% 55,380
Santa Fe 49,994 74.4% 9,546 14.2% 7,642 11.4% 67,182
Sierra 1,917 40.5% 2,048 43.3% 767 16.2% 4,732
Socorro 3,409 54.7% 1,700 27.3% 1,129 18.1% 6,238
Taos 10,838 74.7% 1,556 10.7% 2,112 14.6% 14,506
Torrance 1,982 36.9% 2,433 45.3% 951 17.7% 5,366
Union 334 22.8% 878 60.0% 252 17.2% 1,464
Valencia 11,514 47.1% 8,790 35.0% 4,139 16.9% 24,443

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts.[65]

District Heinrich Rich Johnson Representative
1st 57.55% 26.28% 16.17% Deb Haaland
2nd 45.56% 40.17% 14.27% Xochitl Torres Small
3rd 57.52% 27.0% 15.48% Ben Ray Luján

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Coleman, Michael (November 10, 2016). "Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  2. ^ "United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  3. ^ a b c "New Mexico Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. June 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Lee, Morgan (April 19, 2017). "New Mexico construction contractor announces US Senate bid". KOB. Archived from the original on April 19, 2017. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
  5. ^ "Libertarian Party gets a boost in NM". Nmpoliticalreport.com. January 30, 2018. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
  6. ^ Keithley, Tim (November 23, 2016). "Turkey talk: Political drama on the horizon in 2018". Ruidoso News. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
  7. ^ "New Mexico Governor Rules Out Senate Run". U.S. News & World Report. January 18, 2018. Retrieved March 15, 2018.
  8. ^ "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
  9. ^ Boyd, Dan (August 14, 2018). "Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate". Albuquerque Journal.
  10. ^ "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press.
  11. ^ McLaughlin, Jill. "Aubrey Dunn withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Los Alamos Monitor. Archived from the original on July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  12. ^ @TeamHeinrich (August 17, 2018). "Speaking of independent voices in the Senate, here's @SenAngusKing on why we need Martin's. #nmpol #nmsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. ^ "Retirees Celebrate Social Security's 83rd Anniversary by Endorsing Senator Heinrich - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. August 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 20, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  14. ^ Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Re-election". End Citizens United.
  15. ^ "2018 Senate Endorsees". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on June 16, 2018. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
  16. ^ a b "National Environmental Groups Endorse Martin Heinrich For U.S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate. April 22, 2018.
  17. ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  18. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierraclub.org. July 16, 2012. Retrieved June 11, 2018.
  19. ^ "Carpenters 2018 Midterm New Mexico Endorsements". Swcarpenters.org. Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters.
  20. ^ "New Mexico – Official UAW Endorsements". Uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  21. ^ @MickRich4Senate (September 6, 2018). "With Gov. Susana Martinez at the Carlsbad Mayor's Energy Summit. #NMpol #NMsen #Carlsbad #oil&gas" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  22. ^ "Steve Pearce Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 3, 2018. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
  23. ^ Lyman, Andy (October 19, 2018). "Steve Bannon: Mick Rich is a 'real populist'". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  24. ^ "Associated Builders and Contractors Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. June 29, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2018. Retrieved June 23, 2018.
  25. ^ "National Right To Life Committee Endorses Mick Rich". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. July 31, 2018. Archived from the original on July 31, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
  26. ^ Mick Rich. "I'm honored today to be endorsed by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors PAC. Thank you! I am the only conservative and pro-business candidate in New Mexico's race for U.S. Senate. #NMpol #NMsen". Twitter.
  27. ^ "Bill Weld". Facebook. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  28. ^ "Sen. Rand Paul Backs Libertarian Senate Candidate". The Associated Press. August 28, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  29. ^ Keller, Megan (August 28, 2018). "Rand Paul endorses Gary Johnson's Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved January 11, 2019.
  30. ^ "Aubrey Dunn". Las Cruces Sun News. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  31. ^ a b "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  32. ^ "Endorsements". Gary Johnson Official Campaign Site. Archived from the original on August 31, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  33. ^ @Mark4Gov (August 28, 2018). "Thank you @RandPaul for supporting the very best candidate for senate in New Mexico, @GovGaryJohnson!!#principlesoverparty#riseofthelibertarians#endtwopartyrule" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  34. ^ Welch, Matt (August 31, 2018). "Eric Brakey, Republican Senate Candidate in Maine, Endorses Gary Johnson". Reason. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  35. ^ @nickgillespie (August 14, 2018). "Very excited at this news about @GovGaryJohnson running as @LPNational candidate for Senate in NM! Stand by for more @MattWelch coverage http://reason.com/blog/2018/08/14/its-happening-gary-johnson-running-for-s … @GovBillWeld" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  36. ^ "The Senate could use more libertarians like Gary Johnson". Ocregister.com. August 17, 2018. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  37. ^ "Libertarian Youth Caucus". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  38. ^ "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook.com. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  39. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  40. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  41. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  42. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  43. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  44. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  45. ^ Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "New Mexico - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
  46. ^ Research Co.
  47. ^ Carroll Strategies Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  48. ^ Research & Polling, Inc.
  49. ^ Emerson College
  50. ^ Pacific Market Research
  51. ^ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  52. ^ In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)
  53. ^ Research & Polling, Inc.
  54. ^ In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  55. ^ Emerson College
  56. ^ GQR Research (D-TMI) Archived August 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  57. ^ a b GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)
  58. ^ a b The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)
  59. ^ NSON Opinion Strategy (L) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  60. ^ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  61. ^ In Lux Research (L)
  62. ^ NSON Opinion Strategy (L)
  63. ^ Carroll Strategies
  64. ^ "New Mexico - Election Night Results". Archived from the original on June 11, 2019. Retrieved June 18, 2019.
  65. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
[edit]
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