2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Indiana
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Todd Young Evan Bayh Lucy Brenton
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 1,423,991 1,158,974 149,481
Percentage 52.11% 42.41% 5.47%
Young:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bayh:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Dan Coats
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Todd Young
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.

Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection.[1] U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.

The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[2]

Background

[edit]

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election,[3][4] but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats had "decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[5]

On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.[1]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Marlin Stutzman

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Young 		Marlin
Stutzman 		Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist[28] April 26–28, 2016 645 ± 3.9% 56% 24% 20%
IPFW/Downs Center[29] April 13–27, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 42% 34% 24%
WTHR/Howey[30] April 18–21, 2016 507 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 26%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Young—80–90%
  Young—70–80%
  Young—60–70%
  Young—50–60%
  Stutzman—50–60%
  Stutzman—60–70%
  Stutzman—70–80%
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 661,136 67.0%
Republican Marlin Stutzman 324,429 33.0%
Total votes 985,565 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (withdrew after winning primary)

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director[32][33]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Baron Hill

Individuals

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Baron Hill 516,183 100.00%
Total votes 516,183 100.00%

Democratic State Central Committee selection

[edit]

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[44] Hill soon released a statement formally dropping out of the race, saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[45] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[45] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[46] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[47] The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[45]

Candidates

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Young Bayh Brenton Link
October 18, 2016 Indianapolis, Indiana Participant Participant Participant [48]

Endorsements

[edit]
Evan Bayh

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

Mayors

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Todd Young

Presidents of the United States

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Former state party chairs

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[69] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[70] Tossup November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[71] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Young (R) 		Evan
Bayh (D) 		Lucy
Brenton (L) 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[72] November 1–7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 53% 42% — 5%
SurveyMonkey[73] Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 52% 43% — 5%
WTHR/Howey[74] November 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 6% 7%
SurveyMonkey[75] Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 52% 43% — 5%
SurveyMonkey[76] Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 51% 44% — 5%
Gravis Marketing[77] Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 37% 40% 7% 16%
SurveyMonkey[78] Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 51% 46% — 3%
SurveyMonkey[79] October 25–31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 50% 46% — 4%
Monmouth University[80] October 27–30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing[81] October 22–24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 37% 39% 7% 17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey[82] October 10–16, 2016 544 ± 3.9% 43% 49% — 6%
Monmouth University[83] October 11–13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 6% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] October 9–11, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 8% 13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[85] October 7–10, 2016 1,123 ± 3.0% 43% 46% — 11%
WTHR/Howey[86] October 3–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 8% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] October 3, 2016[87] – – 38% 42% 7% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] September 21, 2016[87] – – 39% 44% 9% 8%
WTHR/Howey[88] September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] September 1, 2016[87] – – 35% 44% 6% 15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)[89] August 15–18, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 39% 55% — 6%
Monmouth University[90] August 13–16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 4% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[91] August 10–14, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 36% 54% — 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[84] August 8, 2016[87] – – 35% 48% 7% 10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)[92] August 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 32% 58% — 9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)[93] July 12–14, 2016 602 ± 4.1% 33% 54% — 13%
Hypothetical polling

with Baron Hill

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Young (R) 		Baron
Hill (D) 		Undecided
Bellwether Research[94] May 11–15, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 22% 30%
WTHR/Howey[30] April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 48% 30% 22%

with Marlin Stutzman

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marlin
Stutzman (R) 		Baron
Hill (D) 		Undecided
WTHR/Howey[30] April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 39% 36% 25%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016 [95]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Todd Young 1,423,991 52.11% −2.47%
Democratic Evan Bayh 1,158,947 42.41% +2.41%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 149,481 5.47% +0.06%
Independent James L. Johnson, Jr. (write-in) 127 0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,732,546 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Young won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[96]

District Young Bayh Representative
1st 38% 58% Pete Visclosky
2nd 53% 41% Jackie Walorski
3rd 59% 35% Marlin Stutzman
4th 59% 35% Todd Rokita
5th 53% 42% Susan Brooks
6th 61% 34% Luke Messer
7th 35% 59% André Carson
8th 53% 42% Larry Bucshon
9th 56% 39% Todd Young

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  2. ^ Maureen Groppe (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
  3. ^ a b Bradner, Eric (December 8, 2012). "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  4. ^ Francisco, Brian (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  5. ^ a b c d "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved October 12, 2014.
  6. ^ a b c d e Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". KokomoPerspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.[permanent dead link‍]
  7. ^ Cahn, Emily (May 9, 2015). "Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 13, 2015. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. ^ Francisco, Brian (August 18, 2015). "Candidate fields growing quietly". Journal Gazette. Retrieved August 18, 2015.[permanent dead link‍]
  9. ^ "May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State Election Division. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  10. ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 26, 2015). "Chief of staff launches Senate bid for Coats's seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2015.
  11. ^ "Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race". WRTV. February 8, 2016. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
  12. ^ Francisco, Brian (May 11, 2015). "Banks set for Congress run". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  13. ^ a b c Howey, Brian A.; Schoeff, Mark Jr. (March 24, 2015). "Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  14. ^ de la Bastide, Ken (April 20, 2015). "Brooks won't run for U.S. Senate". The Herald Bulletin. Retrieved April 20, 2015.
  15. ^ Sullivan, Sean (March 24, 2015). "Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested". Twitter. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  16. ^ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (March 24, 2015). "Coats Not Running For Re-Election". Indy Politics. Archived from the original on March 26, 2015. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  17. ^ "TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope'". The Indianapolis Star. April 21, 2015.
  18. ^ a b Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  19. ^ Carden, Dan (September 15, 2015). "UPDATE: Delph opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  20. ^ Raju, Manu (March 25, 2015). "Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney". Twitter. Retrieved March 25, 2015.
  21. ^ Helms, Aubrey (August 4, 2015). "Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race". The Statehouse File. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  22. ^ Eric Bradner; Dana Bash; MJ Lee (July 15, 2016). "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". CNN.
  23. ^ Carden, Dan (June 10, 2015). "Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved June 10, 2015.
  24. ^ Vandenack, Tim (April 15, 2015). "U.S. Rep. Walorski to seek third term in House, won't run for Senate after all". The Elkhart Truth. Archived from the original on April 15, 2015. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
  25. ^ Marturello, Mike (April 9, 2015). "Zoeller quiets talk of Senate run to replace Coats". News and Tribune. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  26. ^ a b c Francisco, Brian (January 17, 2016). "GOP Senate hopefuls aim right". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  27. ^ Francisco, Brian (March 22, 2016). "FreedomWorks endorses Stutzman in Senate race". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  28. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  29. ^ IPFW/Downs Center
  30. ^ a b c WTHR/Howey
  31. ^ a b "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved May 6, 2016.
  32. ^ Lewis, Olivia (August 15, 2015). "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  33. ^ "John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate". wfyi Indianapolis. January 21, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
  34. ^ Howey, Brian A.; Butler, Matthew (June 25, 2015). "Gov. Pence prepares to pick a fight" (PDF). Howey Politics Indiana. 20 (39). Retrieved September 17, 2019.
  35. ^ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (March 24, 2015). "Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 28, 2015. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  36. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  37. ^ Smith, Brandon (May 25, 2016). "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate". WFIU. Archived from the original on August 7, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2016.
  38. ^ Bruggeman, Karyn (March 8, 2015). "Mike Pence and Indiana's Deep Freeze". National Journal. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
  39. ^ Howey, Brian A. (March 24, 2015). "Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  40. ^ Howey, Brian (September 10, 2015). "U.S. Senate race: McDermott considers" (PDF). Howey Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  41. ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "GOP braces for free-for-all in Indiana". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  42. ^ Turner, Kris (June 4, 2015). "Glenda Ritz calls education 'catalyst for improvement' in run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  43. ^ Tester, Jon (March 8, 2016). "DSCC Endorses Baron Hill in Indiana Senate Race". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Archived from the original on March 31, 2016. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  44. ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 11, 2016). "First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return". CNN.
  45. ^ a b c "Baron Hill withdraws from U.S. Senate race; Evan Bayh to enter race". WTHR. July 11, 2016. Archived from the original on July 12, 2016. Retrieved July 11, 2016.
  46. ^ a b "Bob Kern Senate filing" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. July 12, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 20, 2016. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  47. ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 13, 2016). "Bayh announces Senate bid, puts Indiana seat in play". CNN. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
  48. ^ Full debate
  49. ^ Rucker, Philip (October 23, 2016). "Clinton infuses cash into Senate, gubernatorial races, including Indiana and Missouri". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  50. ^ Roberts, Kelly (October 26, 2016). "Mayor Tom Henry campaigns for Evan Bayh". WANE-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  51. ^ "Daily News Bin endorses Democrat Evan Bayh in 2016 Senate race in Indiana". Daily News Bin. July 12, 2016. Archived from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  52. ^ Shella, Jim (September 8, 2016). "UAW endorses Bayh, attacks Young". WISH-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  53. ^ "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate". The Journal Gazette. October 23, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  54. ^ "Endorsements: A tough choice for U.S. Senate but Bayh is sensible pick for Indiana". South Bend Tribune. October 30, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  55. ^ Schneider, Chelsea. "Bush campaigns for Todd Young in Indy, Elkhart". The Indianapolis Star.
  56. ^ "Tom Cotton campaigns with Todd Young". tomcotton.com. October 27, 2016. Archived from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  57. ^ Roberts, Kelly (November 5, 2016). "Senator Ted Cruz makes final push for Todd Young". WANE-TV. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  58. ^ Republican Party of Indiana (November 1, 2016). "I work with @ToddYoung closely- he's one of the most hardworking men in Congress. He's a servant leader.- @PRyan". Twitter. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  59. ^ a b "Hubbard, Kittle Back Rep. Young to Get in Senate Race". June 2015.
  60. ^ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). "Why Indiana needs a conservative fighter like @ToddYoungIN in the U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
  61. ^ "ACU Endorses Todd Young". American Conservative Union. Archived from the original on July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  62. ^ a b c "Endorsements". toddyoung.org.
  63. ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Indiana". NRAPVF. Archived from the original on October 3, 2016. Retrieved July 17, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  64. ^ DeFreeuw, Eric (September 21, 2016). "NRA ad takes aim at Bayh's gun control voting record". WPTA. Archived from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  65. ^ Shella, Jim (March 30, 2016). "Todd Young wins business endorsements". WISH-TV. Archived from the original on April 5, 2016. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  66. ^ "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate". The Indianapolis Star. October 22, 2016. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
  67. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  68. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  69. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  70. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  71. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  72. ^ SurveyMonkey
  73. ^ SurveyMonkey
  74. ^ WTHR/Howey
  75. ^ SurveyMonkey
  76. ^ SurveyMonkey
  77. ^ Gravis Marketing
  78. ^ SurveyMonkey
  79. ^ SurveyMonkey
  80. ^ Monmouth University
  81. ^ Gravis Marketing
  82. ^ WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey
  83. ^ Monmouth University
  84. ^ a b c d e Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)
  85. ^ The Times-Picayune/Lucid
  86. ^ WTHR/Howey
  87. ^ a b c d Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
  88. ^ WTHR/Howey Archived October 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  89. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)
  90. ^ Monmouth University
  91. ^ Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)
  92. ^ Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)
  93. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)
  94. ^ Bellwether Research
  95. ^ "Indiana General Election, November 8, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
  96. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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