2016 United States presidential election in Missouri

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Missouri
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout66.56% Increase 0.61 pp[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,594,511 1,071,068
Percentage 56.38% 37.87%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump carried the state with 56.4% of the vote, while Clinton received 37.9%.[3] Trump's 18.5-point margin of victory in the state was almost double that of Mitt Romney's from 2012. Clinton carried only four jurisdictions: Boone County, home to Columbia and the University of Missouri; Jackson County, which includes most of Kansas City; St. Louis County; and St. Louis City. Clinton's vote share percentage was the lowest a Democratic presidential nominee obtained in the state since George McGovern's 37.7% in 1972, further cementing the state's drift towards the Republican Party and away from its long-held status as a bellwether state. Missouri was also one of eleven states that voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but were lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Additionally, this was the first time since 1984 that Missouri voted by double digits for the Republican candidate, and the first time since 1992 that the state voted by double digits for either candidate. This was also the first time since 2004 where the state would vote for the winning candidate.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Missouri Democratic presidential primary
County results of the Missouri 2016 Democratic presidential primary.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Nine candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[4]

Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 310,600 49.61% 36 11 47
Bernie Sanders 309,073 49.37% 35 0 35
Uncommitted 3,697 0.59% 0 2 2
Henry Hewes 651 0.10% 0 0 0
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 437 0.07% 0 0 0
Jon Adams 428 0.07% 0 0 0
Rocky De La Fuente 340 0.05% 0 0 0
Willie Wilson 305 0.05% 0 0 0
Keith Judd 284 0.05% 0 0 0
John Wolfe 245 0.04% 0 0 0
Total 626,060 100% 71 13 84
Source:The Green Papers

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Missouri Republican presidential primary
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[4]

Missouri Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 383,631 40.84% 37 0 37
Ted Cruz 381,666 40.63% 15 0 15
John Kasich 94,857 10.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio 57,244 6.09% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 8,233 0.88% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,361 0.36% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 3,225 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,148 0.23% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,777 0.19% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,681 0.18% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 732 0.08% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 615 0.07% 0 0 0
Jim Lynch (withdrawn) 100 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 939,270 100.00% 52 0 52
Source: The Green Papers

Libertarian primary

[edit]

The Missouri primary ran on March 15, 2016, alongside those of the Republican, Democratic, and Constitution parties. 40% of the electorate voted to stand uncommitted to any candidate. Austin Petersen, running in his home state, finished second, with 29% of the statewide vote, which was double that of Steve Kerbel from Colorado, who finished third, with 14%. Petersen comfortably won the support of voters in the state's capital, Jefferson City, and its surrounding counties, but was fell heavily behind the uncommitted vote in the state's two largest cities, Kansas City and St. Louis. Kerbel won three counties around Springfield, while Marc Allan Feldman, Cecil Ince, and Rhett Smith all won a sprawl of counties across the state; in most of these counties, however, only a single vote was cast. No votes were cast for Libertarian Party candidates in the northwestern counties of Harrison, Holt, Mercer, and Worth.[5]

Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Uncommitted 1,183 40.61%
Austin Petersen 854 29.32%
Steve Kerbel 401 13.77%
Marc Allan Feldman 242 8.31%
Cecil Ince 134 4.60%
Rhett Smith 99 3.40%
Total 2,913 100%

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Missouri

Republican Donald Trump won every pre-election poll conducted here except one. Trump won most polls by high single digits or low double digits. The average of the last three polls had Donald Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton 50% to 39%.[6]

Predictions

[edit]

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Missouri as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[7] Likely R November 6, 2016
CNN[8] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[9] Likely R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[10] Safe R November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[11] Likely R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[13] Likely R November 8, 2016
Fox News[14] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

[edit]

The Statewide election results were as follows. The total vote count was 2,828,266.

2016 United States presidential election in Missouri[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,594,511 56.8%
Democratic Hillary Clinton
Timothy Kaine 		1,071,068 38.1%
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Bill Weld 		97,359 3.5%
Green Jill Stein
Ajamu Baraka 		25,419 0.90%
Constitution Darrell L. Castle
Scott N. Bradley 		13,092 0.5%
Independent Evan McMullin
Nathan Johnson 		7,071 0.3%
Independent Tom Hoefling
Steve Schulin 		48 <0.01%
Independent Laurence Kotlikoff
Edward Leamer 		28 <0.01%
Independent "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente
Michael Steinberg 		6 <0.01%
Independent Marshall Schoenke
James Creighton Mitchell Jr. 		3 <0.01%
Total votes 2,808,605 100%

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 6,030 58.97% 3,500 34.23% 696 6.80% 2,530 24.74% 10,226
Andrew 6,665 72.49% 2,045 22.24% 484 5.27% 4,620 50.25% 9,194
Atchison 2,060 75.46% 541 19.82% 129 4.72% 1,519 55.64% 2,730
Audrain 6,981 68.89% 2,570 25.36% 582 5.75% 4,411 43.53% 10,133
Barry 11,428 78.25% 2,710 18.56% 467 3.19% 8,718 59.69% 14,605
Barton 4,959 83.50% 795 13.39% 185 3.11% 4,164 70.11% 5,939
Bates 6,001 74.24% 1,618 20.02% 464 5.74% 4,383 54.22% 8,083
Benton 7,213 75.21% 2,025 21.12% 352 3.67% 5,188 54.09% 9,590
Bollinger 4,827 85.04% 705 12.42% 144 2.54% 4,122 72.62% 5,676
Boone 36,200 43.16% 41,125 49.04% 6,543 7.80% -4,925 -5.88% 83,868
Buchanan 21,320 59.28% 12,013 33.40% 2,631 7.32% 9,307 25.88% 35,964
Butler 13,650 79.09% 3,036 17.59% 573 3.32% 10,614 61.50% 17,259
Caldwell 3,232 74.95% 838 19.43% 242 5.62% 2,394 55.52% 4,312
Callaway 13,057 67.54% 4,989 25.81% 1,287 6.65% 8,068 41.73% 19,333
Camden 16,944 74.71% 4,768 21.02% 968 4.27% 12,176 53.69% 22,680
Cape Girardeau 27,017 72.41% 8,492 22.76% 1,802 4.83% 18,525 49.65% 37,311
Carroll 3,480 79.80% 745 17.08% 136 3.12% 2,735 62.72% 4,361
Carter 2,324 81.54% 436 15.30% 90 3.16% 1,888 66.24% 2,850
Cass 33,098 64.38% 14,846 28.88% 3,466 6.74% 18,252 35.50% 51,410
Cedar 5,021 79.36% 1,011 15.98% 295 4.66% 4,010 63.38% 6,327
Chariton 2,950 74.33% 888 22.37% 131 3.30% 2,062 51.96% 3,969
Christian 30,946 73.92% 8,508 20.32% 2,409 5.76% 22,438 53.60% 41,863
Clark 2,458 74.13% 724 21.83% 134 4.04% 1,734 52.30% 3,316
Clay 57,476 51.70% 45,304 40.75% 8,390 7.55% 12,172 10.95% 111,170
Clinton 7,067 68.60% 2,572 24.97% 662 6.43% 4,495 43.63% 10,301
Cole 24,616 65.37% 10,913 28.98% 2,127 5.65% 13,703 36.39% 37,656
Cooper 5,624 70.42% 1,932 24.19% 430 5.39% 3,692 46.23% 7,986
Crawford 7,724 77.86% 1,824 18.39% 372 3.75% 5,900 59.47% 9,920
Dade 3,184 80.59% 637 16.12% 130 3.29% 2,547 64.47% 3,951
Dallas 5,895 79.10% 1,272 17.07% 286 3.83% 4,623 62.03% 7,453
Daviess 2,767 74.02% 730 19.53% 241 6.45% 2,037 54.49% 3,738
DeKalb 3,540 76.52% 824 17.81% 262 5.67% 2,716 58.71% 4,626
Dent 5,600 82.46% 978 14.40% 213 3.14% 4,622 68.06% 6,791
Douglas 5,486 82.30% 984 14.76% 196 2.94% 4,502 67.54% 6,666
Dunklin 8,026 75.87% 2,360 22.31% 192 1.82% 5,666 53.56% 10,578
Franklin 35,430 70.20% 12,341 24.45% 2,701 5.35% 23,089 45.75% 50,472
Gasconade 5,670 76.10% 1,520 20.40% 261 3.50% 4,150 55.70% 7,451
Gentry 2,304 75.71% 605 19.88% 134 4.41% 1,699 55.83% 3,043
Greene 78,035 59.79% 42,728 32.74% 9,760 7.47% 35,307 27.05% 130,523
Grundy 3,462 78.18% 780 17.62% 186 4.20% 2,682 60.56% 4,428
Harrison 2,965 80.37% 574 15.56% 150 4.07% 2,391 64.81% 3,689
Henry 7,075 71.38% 2,357 23.78% 480 4.84% 4,718 47.60% 9,912
Hickory 3,542 74.40% 1,016 21.34% 203 4.26% 2,526 53.06% 4,761
Holt 1,926 81.78% 347 14.73% 82 3.49% 1,579 67.05% 2,355
Howard 3,277 67.32% 1,283 26.36% 308 6.32% 1,994 40.96% 4,868
Howell 13,893 79.59% 2,881 16.51% 681 3.90% 11,012 63.08% 17,455
Iron 3,173 74.33% 933 21.86% 163 3.81% 2,240 52.47% 4,269
Jackson 116,211 38.14% 168,972 55.46% 19,504 6.40% -52,761 -17.32% 304,687
Jasper 35,070 72.57% 10,572 21.88% 2,684 5.55% 24,498 50.69% 48,326
Jefferson 69,036 64.52% 31,568 29.50% 6,391 5.98% 37,468 35.02% 106,995
Johnson 13,719 64.22% 5,930 27.76% 1,713 8.02% 7,789 36.46% 21,362
Knox 1,416 75.72% 379 20.27% 75 4.01% 1,037 55.45% 1,870
Laclede 12,881 79.81% 2,553 15.82% 706 4.37% 10,328 63.99% 16,140
Lafayette 10,988 68.78% 4,053 25.37% 934 5.85% 6,935 43.41% 15,975
Lawrence 13,089 77.86% 2,901 17.26% 821 4.88% 10,188 60.60% 16,811
Lewis 3,344 74.64% 934 20.85% 202 4.51% 2,410 53.79% 4,480
Lincoln 18,159 72.31% 5,575 22.20% 1,380 5.49% 12,584 50.11% 25,114
Linn 4,088 73.17% 1,240 22.19% 259 4.64% 2,848 50.98% 5,587
Livingston 4,879 75.99% 1,265 19.70% 277 4.31% 3,614 56.29% 6,421
Macon 5,798 75.98% 1,548 20.29% 285 3.73% 4,250 55.69% 7,631
Madison 4,102 77.09% 1,005 18.89% 214 4.02% 3,097 58.20% 5,321
Maries 3,561 79.13% 794 17.64% 145 3.23% 2,767 61.49% 4,500
Marion 9,419 72.80% 2,994 23.14% 525 4.06% 6,425 49.66% 12,938
McDonald 6,599 79.49% 1,329 16.01% 374 4.50% 5,270 63.48% 8,302
Mercer 1,486 85.16% 216 12.38% 43 2.46% 1,270 72.78% 1,745
Miller 9,285 80.87% 1,750 15.24% 447 3.89% 7,535 65.63% 11,482
Mississippi 3,600 69.65% 1,458 28.21% 111 2.14% 2,142 41.44% 5,169
Moniteau 5,347 78.29% 1,237 18.11% 246 3.60% 4,110 60.18% 6,830
Monroe 3,159 76.01% 853 20.52% 144 3.47% 2,306 55.49% 4,156
Montgomery 4,127 76.02% 1,119 20.61% 183 3.37% 3,008 55.41% 5,429
Morgan 6,760 76.64% 1,768 20.04% 293 3.32% 4,992 56.60% 8,821
New Madrid 5,270 71.63% 1,933 26.27% 154 2.10% 3,337 45.36% 7,357
Newton 20,553 76.67% 4,990 18.61% 1,264 4.72% 15,563 58.06% 26,807
Nodaway 6,380 67.46% 2,529 26.74% 549 5.80% 3,851 40.72% 9,458
Oregon 3,671 78.64% 865 18.53% 132 2.83% 2,806 60.11% 4,668
Osage 5,856 82.60% 998 14.08% 236 3.32% 4,858 68.52% 7,090
Ozark 3,639 80.78% 724 16.07% 142 3.15% 2,915 64.71% 4,505
Pemiscot 3,964 65.60% 1,947 32.22% 132 2.18% 2,017 33.38% 6,043
Perry 6,908 79.04% 1,520 17.39% 312 3.57% 5,388 61.65% 8,740
Pettis 12,810 70.37% 4,324 23.75% 1,070 5.88% 8,486 46.62% 18,204
Phelps 12,709 67.92% 4,766 25.47% 1,238 6.61% 7,943 42.45% 18,713
Pike 5,274 71.00% 1,806 24.31% 348 4.69% 3,468 46.69% 7,428
Platte 25,933 52.28% 20,057 40.43% 3,618 7.29% 5,876 11.85% 49,608
Polk 10,438 75.84% 2,631 19.12% 694 5.04% 7,807 56.72% 13,763
Pulaski 9,876 72.71% 2,922 21.51% 784 5.78% 6,954 51.20% 13,582
Putnam 1,936 82.52% 353 15.05% 57 2.43% 1,583 67.47% 2,346
Ralls 3,969 74.97% 1,138 21.50% 187 3.53% 2,831 53.47% 5,294
Randolph 7,529 72.34% 2,283 21.94% 596 5.72% 5,246 50.40% 10,408
Ray 7,104 64.91% 3,090 28.23% 751 6.86% 4,014 36.68% 10,945
Reynolds 2,406 79.20% 540 17.77% 92 3.03% 1,866 61.43% 3,038
Ripley 4,522 81.86% 830 15.03% 172 3.11% 3,692 66.83% 5,524
Saline 5,977 64.45% 2,789 30.07% 508 5.48% 3,188 34.38% 9,274
Schuyler 1,505 77.74% 354 18.29% 77 3.97% 1,151 59.45% 1,936
Scotland 1,525 76.98% 365 18.43% 91 4.59% 1,160 58.55% 1,981
Scott 13,168 75.95% 3,575 20.62% 594 3.43% 9,593 55.33% 17,337
Shannon 2,966 75.97% 776 19.88% 162 4.15% 2,190 56.09% 3,904
Shelby 2,524 77.09% 606 18.51% 144 4.40% 1,918 58.58% 3,274
St. Charles 121,650 59.87% 68,626 33.78% 12,908 6.35% 53,024 26.09% 203,184
St. Clair 3,501 75.62% 936 20.22% 193 4.16% 2,565 55.40% 4,630
St. Francois 17,468 70.10% 6,250 25.08% 1,202 4.82% 11,218 45.02% 24,920
St. Louis 202,434 38.95% 286,704 55.17% 30,548 5.88% -84,270 -16.22% 519,686
St. Louis City 20,832 15.72% 104,235 78.68% 7,420 5.60% -83,403 -62.96% 132,487
Ste. Genevieve 5,496 64.57% 2,542 29.86% 474 5.57% 2,954 34.71% 8,512
Stoddard 11,079 83.36% 1,876 14.11% 336 2.53% 9,203 69.25% 13,291
Stone 13,158 79.05% 2,887 17.34% 600 3.61% 10,271 61.71% 16,645
Sullivan 1,884 75.78% 526 21.16% 76 3.06% 1,358 54.62% 2,486
Taney 18,276 77.20% 4,373 18.47% 1,024 4.33% 13,903 58.73% 23,673
Texas 8,875 81.01% 1,728 15.77% 353 3.22% 7,147 65.24% 10,956
Vernon 6,533 75.69% 1,707 19.78% 391 4.53% 4,826 55.91% 8,631
Warren 11,111 70.39% 3,915 24.80% 758 4.81% 7,196 45.59% 15,784
Washington 7,048 75.53% 1,926 20.64% 357 3.83% 5,122 54.89% 9,331
Wayne 4,658 80.84% 948 16.45% 156 2.71% 3,710 64.39% 5,762
Webster 12,840 76.69% 3,177 18.98% 726 4.33% 9,663 57.71% 16,743
Worth 808 77.25% 195 18.64% 43 4.11% 613 58.61% 1,046
Wright 6,707 82.61% 1,170 14.41% 242 2.98% 5,537 68.20% 8,119
Totals 1,594,511 56.38% 1,071,068 37.87% 162,687 5.75% 523,443 18.51% 2,828,266

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[16]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 19% 77% Lacy Clay
2nd 53% 42% Ann Wagner
3rd 67% 28% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 65% 29% Vicky Hartzler
5th 40% 55% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 63% 31% Sam Graves
7th 70% 25% Billy Long
8th 75% 21% Jason Smith

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter Turnout Report - State of Missouri General Election - 2016 General Election" (PDF). Missouri's Secretary of State.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  3. ^ "Missouri Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved July 9, 2018.
  4. ^ a b "Home". Archived from the original on January 31, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  5. ^ a b "State of Missouri - Election Night Results". Missouri Secretary of State. Government of Missouri. 16 March 2016. Archived from the original on 18 March 2016. Retrieved 16 March 2016.
  6. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Missouri: Trump vs. Clinton".
  7. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  8. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  12. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  15. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Missouri" (PDF). sos.mo.gov. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  16. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
[edit]
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