2020 United States presidential election in Missouri

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Missouri
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.75% Increase 3.19 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,718,736 1,253,014
Percentage 56.80% 41.41%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Missouri
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
State Treasurer elections
State Auditor elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
1999
2004
2006
2018
2020
2022
2024
Columbia
Mayoral elections
Jefferson City
Mayoral elections
Joplin
Mayoral elections
Kansas City
Mayoral elections
Springfield
Mayoral elections
St. Louis
Mayoral elections
Board of Aldermen elections

The 2020 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won Missouri again by a 15.4% margin. This was 3.1% lower than his 2016 margin, but still a better performance in the state than that of any other Republican nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump would win; during the 21st century Missouri has shifted away from being one of the most notable bellwether states towards becoming a reliably red state. Trump became the first incumbent president since Grover Cleveland in 1888 to win Missouri and lose re-election and the first-ever Republican incumbent to do so. This is also the first time since 1916 (and only the second time ever) that Missouri has voted more Republican than neighboring Kansas.

In this election, Missouri voted just under 20% to the right of the nation as a whole.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2020 Missouri Democratic presidential primary
Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
2020 Missouri Democratic presidential primary[3]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[4]
Joe Biden 400,347 60.10 44
Bernie Sanders 230,374 34.59 24
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 9,866 1.48
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 8,156 1.22
Tulsi Gabbard 4,887 0.73
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 3,309 0.50
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 2,682 0.40
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 953 0.14
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 651 0.10
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 584 0.09
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 206 0.03
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 170 0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn) 159 0.02
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 103 0.02
Henry Hewes 94 0.01
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 52 0.01
Other candidates 1,025 0.15
Uncommitted 2,494 0.37
Total 666,112 100% 68

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2020 Missouri Republican presidential primary


2020 Missouri Republican presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 301,953 96.8% 54
Uncommitted 4,216 1.4% 0
Bill Weld 2,171 0.7% 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 2,015 0.6% 0
Bob Ely 844 0.3% 0
Matthew John Matern 594 0.2% 0
Total 311,793 100% 54

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Missouri Libertarian presidential primary
← 2016 March 10, 2020 2024 →
← NC
OH →
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Uncommitted
Home state Virginia N/A
Popular vote 1,683 573
Percentage 74.6% 25.4%
Election results by county
  Jacob Hornberger
  Uncommitted
  Tie
  No votes
Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 10, 2020[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 1,683 74.6%
Uncommitted 573 25.4%
Total 2,256 100%

Green primary

[edit]
Main article: 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
2020 Missouri Green presidential primaries[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Howie Hawkins 2,733 76.93%
Green Dario Hunter 639 26.87%
Green David Rolde 214 10.99%
Total votes 3,586 100%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[8] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[9] Lean R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[11] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[12] Lean R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[13] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[14] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[15] Likely R September 2, 2020
CBS News[16] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[17] Likely R August 2, 2020
ABC News[18] Lean R July 31, 2020
NPR[19] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[20] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[21] Likely R September 9, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[22] October 13 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.7% 51.3% 5.0% Trump +7.6
FiveThirtyEight[23] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.6% 51.6% 4.8% Trump +8.0
Average 43.7% 51.5% 4.9% Trump +7.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,926 (LV) ± 2.5% 54%[c] 44% - - – –
Swayable[25] Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 487 (LV) ± 6.6% 55% 43% 2% 0% – –
Morning Consult[26] Oct 22–31, 2020 1,109 (LV) ± 3% 52% 43% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[27] Oct 28–29, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 50% 45% 2% 1% – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Oct 1–28, 2020 4,759 (LV) – 53% 45% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[28] Oct 14–15, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 51% 45% 1% 1% - 2%
YouGov/SLU[29] Sep 24 – Oct 7, 2020 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 43% - - 3% 2%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Missouri[30][A] Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 48% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[31] Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 980 (LV) ± 3% 51% 46% - - – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,157 (LV) – 53% 45% - - – 2%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[32] Sep 16–17, 2020 1,046 (LV) ± 3% 53% 45% - - – 2%
We Ask America[33] Sep 1–3, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 49% 44% - - 5%[d] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,863 (LV) – 54% 44% - - – 2%
Trafalgar Group (R)[34] Aug 26–28, 2020 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 52% 41% 3% - 1%[e] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Jul 1–31, 2020 2,261 (LV) – 54% 44% - - – 2%
YouGov/Saint Louis University[35] Jun 23 – Jul 1, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.95% 50% 43% - - 4% 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] Jun 8–30, 2020 868 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Governor/Missouri Scout[36][A] Jun 16–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% - - – –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[37] Jun 10–11, 2020 1,152 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 43% - - – 6%
We Ask America[38] May 26–27, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 48% 44% - - 3%[f] 5%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[39] Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 53% 42% - - – 5%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[40][B] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 50% 43% - - – 7%
Remington Research Group[41] Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 42% - - – 5%
Remington Research Group[42] Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 43% - - – 6%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[39] Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[39] Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 52% 37% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group[42] Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 36% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group[42] Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 38% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[39] Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 52% 37% 11%
Remington Research Group[41] Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%
Remington Research Group[42] Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[39] Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) – 53% 35% 12%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[40][B] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 51% 41% 8%
Remington Research Group[41] Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%
Zogby Analytics[43] Aug 17–23, 2017 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 46% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[44] March 6–7, 2019 984(LV) ± 3.3% 53% 46% 2%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Missouri[45][46]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,718,736 56.80 +0.02
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,253,014 41.41 +3.27
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		41,205 1.36 −2.11
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		8,283 0.27 −0.63
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		3,919 0.13 −0.34
Write-in 805 0.03 n/a
Total votes 3,025,962 100.00

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 6,413 62.05% 3,710 35.89% 213 2.06% 2,703 26.14% 10,336
Andrew 7,255 74.23% 2,351 24.05% 168 1.72% 4,904 50.18% 9,774
Atchison 2,199 78.14% 564 20.04% 51 1.82% 1,635 58.10% 2,814
Audrain 7,732 72.49% 2,704 25.35% 230 2.16% 5,028 47.14% 10,666
Barry 12,425 79.66% 2,948 18.90% 225 1.44% 9,477 60.76% 15,598
Barton 5,168 85.04% 844 13.89% 65 1.07% 4,324 71.15% 6,077
Bates 6,597 78.18% 1,672 19.82% 169 2.00% 4,925 58.36% 8,438
Benton 8,109 77.35% 2,180 20.79% 195 1.86% 5,929 56.56% 10,484
Bollinger 5,167 86.36% 750 12.54% 66 1.10% 4,417 73.82% 5,983
Boone 38,646 42.32% 50,064 54.82% 2,616 2.86% -11,418 -12.50% 91,326
Buchanan 22,450 61.15% 13,445 36.62% 818 2.23% 9,005 24.53% 36,713
Butler 14,602 80.37% 3,301 18.17% 266 1.46% 11,301 62.20% 18,169
Caldwell 3,725 79.32% 897 19.10% 74 1.58% 2,828 60.22% 4,696
Callaway 14,815 69.94% 5,870 27.71% 498 2.35% 8,945 42.23% 21,183
Camden 18,850 75.97% 5,652 22.78% 310 1.25% 13,198 53.19% 24,812
Cape Girardeau 28,907 71.51% 10,760 26.62% 759 1.87% 18,147 44.89% 40,426
Carroll 3,706 81.77% 786 17.34% 40 0.89% 2,920 64.43% 4,532
Carter 2,451 84.60% 418 14.43% 28 0.97% 2,033 70.17% 2,897
Cass 37,197 64.61% 19,052 33.09% 1,319 2.30% 18,145 31.52% 57,568
Cedar 5,788 82.17% 1,145 16.25% 111 1.58% 4,643 65.92% 7,044
Chariton 3,111 76.31% 916 22.47% 50 3.30% 2,195 53.84% 4,077
Christian 34,920 74.42% 11,131 23.72% 874 1.86% 23,789 50.70% 46,925
Clark 2,672 78.73% 678 19.98% 44 1.29% 1,994 58.75% 3,394
Clay 64,605 51.04% 59,400 46.93% 2,564 2.03% 5,205 4.11% 126,569
Clinton 7,799 71.51% 2,896 26.55% 211 1.94% 4,903 44.96% 10,906
Cole 26,086 65.80% 12,694 32.02% 865 2.18% 13,392 33.78% 39,645
Cooper 6,272 72.15% 2,249 25.87% 172 1.98% 4,023 46.28% 8,693
Crawford 8,725 79.51% 2,113 19.26% 135 1.23% 6,612 60.25% 10,973
Dade 3,414 82.88% 656 15.93% 49 1.19% 2,758 66.95% 4,119
Dallas 6,619 81.68% 1,380 17.03% 105 1.29% 5,239 64.65% 8,104
Daviess 3,102 79.31% 746 19.07% 63 1.62% 2,356 60.24% 3,911
DeKalb 3,828 78.90% 930 19.17% 94 1.93% 2,898 59.73% 4,852
Dent 5,987 83.83% 1,056 14.79% 99 1.38% 4,931 69.04% 7,142
Douglas 5,898 84.26% 1,016 14.51% 86 1.23% 4,882 69.75% 7,000
Dunklin 8,135 78.08% 2,200 21.12% 84 0.80% 5,935 56.96% 10,419
Franklin 38,058 70.76% 14,569 27.09% 1,156 2.15% 23,489 43.67% 53,783
Gasconade 6,222 78.53% 1,601 20.21% 100 1.26% 4,621 58.32% 7,923
Gentry 2,581 79.73% 613 18.94% 43 1.33% 1,968 60.79% 3,237
Greene 83,630 58.78% 55,068 38.71% 3,574 2.51% 28,562 20.07% 142,272
Grundy 3,585 80.80% 799 18.01% 53 1.19% 2,786 62.79% 4,437
Harrison 3,198 83.59% 597 15.60% 31 0.81% 2,601 67.99% 3,826
Henry 8,027 74.29% 2,619 24.24% 159 1.47% 5,408 50.05% 10,805
Hickory 3,966 78.07% 1,056 20.79% 58 1.14% 2,910 57.28% 5,080
Holt 1,976 84.34% 338 14.43% 29 1.23% 1,638 69.91% 2,343
Howard 3,553 69.78% 1,413 27.75% 126 2.47% 2,140 42.03% 5,092
Howell 15,181 81.29% 3,218 17.23% 277 1.48% 11,963 64.06% 18,676
Iron 3,596 78.31% 945 20.58% 51 1.11% 2,651 57.73% 4,592
Jackson 126,535 37.88% 199,842 59.82% 7,678 2.30% -73,307 -21.94% 334,055
Jasper 37,728 71.81% 13,549 25.79% 1,262 2.40% 24,179 46.02% 52,539
Jefferson 77,046 65.88% 37,523 32.08% 2,384 2.04% 39,523 33.80% 116,953
Johnson 15,489 66.84% 6,974 30.10% 709 3.06% 8,515 36.74% 23,172
Knox 1,486 80.06% 340 18.32% 30 1.62% 1,146 61.74% 1,856
Laclede 13,762 81.78% 2,780 16.52% 286 1.70% 10,982 65.26% 16,828
Lafayette 12,273 71.79% 4,472 26.16% 351 2.05% 7,801 45.63% 17,096
Lawrence 14,426 80.43% 3,214 17.92% 295 1.65% 11,212 62.51% 17,935
Lewis 3,553 76.92% 984 21.30% 82 1.78% 2,569 55.62% 4,619
Lincoln 21,848 75.17% 6,607 22.73% 610 2.10% 15,241 52.44% 29,065
Linn 4,363 76.20% 1,275 22.27% 88 1.53% 3,088 53.93% 5,726
Livingston 5,267 77.94% 1,410 20.86% 81 1.20% 3,857 57.08% 6,758
Macon 6,076 77.54% 1,662 21.21% 98 1.25% 4,414 56.33% 7,836
Madison 4,584 80.76% 1,019 17.95% 73 1.29% 3,565 62.81% 5,676
Maries 3,892 81.58% 814 17.06% 65 1.36% 3,078 64.52% 4,771
Marion 9,915 74.13% 3,202 23.94% 259 1.93% 6,713 50.19% 13,376
McDonald 7,465 82.37% 1,439 15.88% 159 1.75% 6,026 66.49% 9,063
Mercer 1,541 86.48% 222 12.46% 19 1.06% 1,319 74.02% 1,782
Miller 10,176 82.08% 2,038 16.44% 183 1.48% 8,138 65.64% 12,397
Mississippi 3,537 74.37% 1,178 24.77% 41 0.86% 2,359 49.60% 4,756
Moniteau 5,744 80.26% 1,308 18.28% 105 1.46% 4,436 61.98% 7,157
Monroe 3,477 77.56% 936 20.88% 70 1.56% 2,541 56.68% 4,483
Montgomery 4,465 77.36% 1,208 20.93% 99 1.71% 3,257 56.43% 5,772
Morgan 7,442 78.44% 1,924 20.28% 121 1.28% 5,518 58.16% 9,487
New Madrid 5,447 75.13% 1,748 24.11% 55 0.76% 3,699 51.02% 7,250
Newton 22,120 77.74% 5,818 20.45% 516 1.81% 16,302 57.29% 28,454
Nodaway 6,865 69.27% 2,853 28.79% 192 1.94% 4,012 40.48% 9,910
Oregon 3,847 81.18% 823 17.37% 69 1.45% 3,024 63.81% 4,739
Osage 6,425 85.14% 1,037 13.74% 84 1.12% 5,388 71.40% 7,546
Ozark 4,064 83.55% 752 15.46% 48 0.99% 3,312 68.09% 4,864
Pemiscot 4,120 71.84% 1,560 27.20% 55 0.96% 2,560 44.64% 5,735
Perry 7,657 80.98% 1,664 17.60% 135 1.42% 5,993 63.38% 9,456
Pettis 13,854 72.55% 4,783 25.05% 460 2.40% 9,071 47.50% 19,097
Phelps 13,480 68.77% 5,637 28.76% 484 2.47% 7,843 40.01% 19,601
Pike 5,863 76.08% 1,717 22.28% 126 1.64% 4,146 53.80% 7,706
Platte 28,917 50.49% 27,179 47.46% 1,174 2.05% 1,738 3.03% 57,270
Polk 11,850 78.49% 2,885 19.11% 363 2.40% 8,965 59.38% 15,098
Pulaski 10,329 71.53% 3,740 25.90% 372 2.57% 6,589 45.63% 14,441
Putnam 1,984 84.03% 361 15.29% 16 0.68% 1,623 68.74% 2,361
Ralls 4,396 77.64% 1,205 21.28% 61 1.08% 3,191 56.36% 5,662
Randolph 8,018 74.54% 2,485 23.10% 254 2.36% 5,533 51.44% 10,757
Ray 8,345 71.48% 3,109 26.63% 221 1.89% 5,236 44.85% 11,675
Reynolds 2,733 82.87% 529 16.04% 36 1.09% 2,204 66.83% 3,298
Ripley 4,839 84.64% 833 14.57% 45 0.79% 4,006 70.07% 5,717
Saline 6,451 67.67% 2,904 30.46% 178 1.87% 3,547 37.21% 9,533
Schuyler 1,606 80.18% 373 18.62% 24 1.20% 1,233 61.56% 2,003
Scotland 1,560 78.55% 388 19.54% 38 1.91% 1,172 59.01% 1,986
Scott 13,769 77.58% 3,753 21.15% 226 1.27% 10,016 56.43% 17,748
Shannon 3,165 81.03% 706 18.07% 35 0.90% 2,459 62.96% 3,906
Shelby 2,700 80.60% 592 17.67% 58 1.73% 2,108 62.93% 3,350
St. Charles 128,389 57.69% 89,530 40.23% 4,647 2.08% 38,859 17.46% 222,566
St. Clair 3,932 79.05% 988 19.86% 54 1.09% 2,944 59.19% 4,974
St. Francois 20,511 73.08% 7,044 25.10% 510 1.82% 13,467 47.98% 28,065
St. Louis 199,493 37.19% 328,151 61.17% 8,802 1.64% -128,658 -23.98% 536,446
St. Louis City 21,474 15.98% 110,089 81.93% 2,809 2.09% -88,615 -65.95% 134,372
Ste. Genevieve 6,630 69.80% 2,713 28.56% 155 1.64% 3,917 41.24% 9,498
Stoddard 11,484 85.54% 1,819 13.55% 123 0.91% 9,665 71.99% 13,426
Stone 14,800 79.91% 3,506 18.93% 214 1.16% 11,294 60.98% 18,520
Sullivan 1,974 79.89% 478 19.34% 19 0.77% 1,496 60.55% 2,471
Taney 20,508 77.86% 5,339 20.27% 491 1.87% 15,169 57.59% 26,338
Texas 9,478 83.76% 1,716 15.17% 121 1.07% 7,762 68.59% 11,315
Vernon 7,155 77.90% 1,903 20.72% 127 1.38% 5,252 57.18% 9,185
Warren 13,222 71.80% 4,769 25.90% 425 2.30% 8,453 45.90% 18,416
Washington 8,047 80.56% 1,804 18.06% 138 1.38% 6,243 62.50% 9,989
Wayne 4,987 84.84% 845 14.38% 46 0.78% 4,142 70.46% 5,878
Webster 14,880 79.24% 3,573 19.03% 326 1.73% 11,307 60.21% 18,779
Worth 877 79.22% 215 19.42% 15 1.36% 662 59.80% 1,107
Wright 7,453 85.17% 1,168 13.35% 130 1.48% 6,285 71.82% 8,751
Totals 1,718,736 56.71% 1,253,014 41.34% 58,998 1.95% 465,722 15.37% 3,030,748

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[47]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 18.1% 80.3% Lacy Clay (116th Congress)
Cori Bush (117th Congress)
2nd 49.18% 49.16% Ann Wagner
3rd 66.9% 31.3% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66% 31.9% Vicky Hartzler
5th 39.6% 58.4% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 63.3% 35% Sam Graves
7th 70% 28.1% Billy Long
8th 77.3% 21.4% Jason Smith

Analysis

[edit]

A bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century, Missouri has since come to vote reliably Republican in presidential elections. This has been attributed to a shift in Republican policy towards right-wing populism and social conservatism; the platform has found fertile ground in the state, which lies in the Bible Belt, with Trump carrying 86% of White, born-again/Evangelical Christians.[48]

Biden won the same four jurisdictions that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did in 2012 and 2016, respectively: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to the college town of Columbia; and St. Louis County, home to the suburbs of St. Louis, which he also won. Biden also improved Democratic margins in Platte and Clay counties, both suburbs of Kansas City; Platte was carried by Trump by only 3%, and Clay by 4%. In addition, the 61% of the vote that Biden won in St. Louis County was the best performance for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide.[citation needed]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Missouri came from voters who trusted him on economic policy: a 57% majority believed Trump was better able to handle international trade. With a hybrid industrial-service-agricultural economy, 63% of Missourian voters favored increasing taxes on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries, and these voters broke for Trump by 67%. As is the case in many Southern and border states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: White Missourians supported Trump by 62%, while black Missourians supported Biden by 88%. Trump became the first-ever Republican presidential candidate to win Missouri by double digits twice.[48]

In other elections, incumbent Republican Mike Parson easily defeated State Auditor Nicole Galloway by 16 points—outperforming Trump—in the governor's race, further testifying to the state's trend towards the GOP, and becoming the best performance for a Republican on the gubernatorial level since John Ashcroft's 1988 victory.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  5. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Galloway's campaign for governor
  2. ^ a b Uniting Missouri is a PAC supporting Governor Mike Parson (R) in the 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "State of Missouri - Presidential Primary Election, March 10, 2020" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.
  4. ^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
  5. ^ "2020_Presidential_Preference_Primary_All_Results.pdf" (PDF). April 9, 2020.
  6. ^ "Joe Biden, Donald Trump win Missouri Presidential Preferential Primary". KMBC. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  7. ^ "Candidate List — March 2020 Presidential Preference Primary". Retrieved December 18, 2019.
  8. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  12. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  13. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  14. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  15. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  18. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  19. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  20. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  22. ^ 270 to Win
  23. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  24. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  25. ^ Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  26. ^ Morning Consult
  27. ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  28. ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  29. ^ YouGov/SLU
  30. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Missouri
  31. ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  32. ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  33. ^ We Ask America
  34. ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
  35. ^ "YouGov/Saint Louis University". Archived from the original on July 13, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  36. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Governor/Missouri Scout
  37. ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  38. ^ We Ask America
  39. ^ a b c d e Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  40. ^ a b American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri
  41. ^ a b c Remington Research Group
  42. ^ a b c d Remington Research Group
  43. ^ Zogby Analytics
  44. ^ Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
  45. ^ "Official List of Candidates" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 1, 2020. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  46. ^ General Election, November 03, 2020, Official Results, Missouri Secretary of State, December 8, 2020.
  47. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  48. ^ a b "Missouri Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Missouri&oldid=1255313367"