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Deutsch2020 United States presidential election in Alabama
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| Elections in Alabama |
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 Government |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alabama voters chose nine electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot was the Libertarian nominee, psychology lecturer Jo Jorgensen and her running mate, entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen. Write-in candidates were permitted without registration, and their results were not individually counted.[3][4]
Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. Trump won the state with 62.03% of the vote to Biden's 36.57%.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]As one of the Super Tuesday states, little campaigning has been done here, and the focus had been on the highly competitive Republican senatorial primary, which was expected to boost turnout.[citation needed]
Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld challenged incumbent president Donald Trump in the Republican primary in Alabama.[5] Trump received 96.22% of the vote[6] and all 50 delegates,[7] while Weld received only 1.52% of the vote. Uncommitted votes made up the other 2.27%.
| 2020 Alabama Republican presidential primary[6] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Delegates[7] | |
| Count | Percentage | ||
 Donald Trump (incumbent) | 695,470 | 96.22% | 50 |
| Bill Weld | 10,962 | 1.52% | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 16,378 | 2.27% | 0 |
| Total | 722,809 | 100% | 50 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Biden won the Alabama primary with 63.28% of the vote, winning 44 delegates. Bernie Sanders came in second place with 16.54% of the vote, getting 8 delegates. No other candidates won any delegates from Alabama.
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Biden—40–50%
Biden—50–60%
Biden—60–70%
Biden—70–80%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[9] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 286,065 | 63.28 | 44 |
| Bernie Sanders | 74,755 | 16.54 | 8 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 52,750 | 11.67 | |
| Elizabeth Warren | 25,847 | 5.72 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[a] | 2,250 | 0.50 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] | 1,416 | 0.31 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] | 1,048 | 0.23 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1,038 | 0.23 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] | 907 | 0.20 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[a] | 875 | 0.19 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn)[c] | 740 | 0.16 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn)[c] | 294 | 0.07 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)[c] | 224 | 0.05 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 184 | 0.04 | |
| Uncommitted | 3,700 | 0.82 | |
| Total | 452,093 | 100% | 52 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[13] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[14] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[15][16] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[17] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[18] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[19][d] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[20] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[21] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[22][e] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[23] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[24] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [f] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[25] | September 1 – October 13, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | 38.0% | 58.0% | 4.0% | Trump +20.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[26] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 37.8% | 57.4% | 4.8% | Trump +19.5 |
| Average | 37.9% | 57.7% | 4.4% | Trump +19.8 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[g] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,808 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 62%[h] | 36% | – | – | – |
| Swayable[28] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 330 (LV) | ± 7.9% | 55% | 38% | 7% | – | – |
| Data for Progress[29] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3% | 58% | 38% | 3% | 1% | 0%[i] |
| Auburn University At Montgomery[30] | Oct 23–28, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 58% | 39% | – | 3% | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 3,363 (LV) | – | 61% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Swayable[31] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 266 (LV) | ± 7.8% | 56% | 37% | 7% | – | – |
| Moore Information (R)[32][A] | Oct 11–14, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 55% | 38% | – | – | – |
| Auburn University at Montgomery[33] | Sep 30 – Oct 3, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 6% | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,354 (LV) | – | 59% | 39% | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,220 (LV) | – | 65% | 33% | – | – | 2% |
| Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[34][B] | Aug 17–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 44% | 0% | 0%[j] | 7% |
| Morning Consult[35] | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 36% | – | 2%[k] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,583 (LV) | – | 63% | 35% | – | – | 2% |
| Auburn University at Montgomery[36] | Jul 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 55% | 41% | – | 4% | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 649 (LV) | – | 63% | 35% | – | – | 2% |
| FM3 Research/Doug Jones[37][C] | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4% | 53% | 39% | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon[38] | Feb 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 58% | 38% | – | – | 4% |
| WPA Intelligence[39] | Jan 7–9, 2020 | 500 (LV) | – | 59% | 38% | – | – | 3% |
Former candidates | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With generic opponent
|
Fundraising
[edit]According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $4,412,645.01,[41] Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,412,420.93,[42] and Jo Jorgensen raised $8,172.29[43] from Alabama-based contributors.
Candidate ballot access
[edit]- Donald Trump / Mike Pence, Republican
- Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic
- Jo Jorgensen / Spike Cohen, Libertarian
In addition, write-in candidates were allowed without registration, and their votes were not counted individually.[3][4]
Electoral slates
[edit]The voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alabama, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[44][45]
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 9 pledged electors from Alabama cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[46][47][48]
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party | Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party | Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
|---|---|---|
| Jacquelyn Gay Jeana S. Boggs Joseph R. Fuller John H. Killian J. Elbert Peters Joan Reynolds Rick Pate Dennis H. Beavers John Wahl | Brooke Tanner Battle Linda Coleman-Madison Earl Hilliard Jr. Sigfredo Rubio Lashunda Scales James Box Spearman Patricia Todd Sheila Tyson Ralph Young | Pascal Bruijn Lorelei Koory Shane A. Taylor Jason Matthew Shelby Elijah J. Boyd Dennis J. Knizley Laura Chancey Lane Anthony G. Peebles Franklin R. Dillman |
Results
[edit]
| Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | Biden 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) | 1,441,170 | 62.03 | −0.05 | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 849,624 | 36.57 | +2.21 | |
| Independent[m] | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 25,176 | 1.08 | −1.01 | |
| Write-in | 7,312 | 0.32 | −0.70 | ||
| Total votes | 2,323,282 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Autauga | 19,838 | 71.44% | 7,503 | 27.02% | 429 | 1.54% | 12,335 | 44.42% | 27,770 |
| Baldwin | 83,544 | 76.17% | 24,578 | 22.41% | 1,557 | 1.42% | 58,966 | 53.76% | 109,679 |
| Barbour | 5,622 | 53.45% | 4,816 | 45.79% | 80 | 0.76% | 806 | 7.66% | 10,518 |
| Bibb | 7,525 | 78.43% | 1,986 | 20.70% | 84 | 0.87% | 5,539 | 57.73% | 9,595 |
| Blount | 24,711 | 89.57% | 2,640 | 9.57% | 237 | 0.86% | 22,071 | 80.00% | 27,588 |
| Bullock | 1,146 | 24.84% | 3,446 | 74.70% | 21 | 0.46% | -2,300 | -49.66% | 4,613 |
| Butler | 5,458 | 57.53% | 3,965 | 41.79% | 65 | 0.68% | 1,493 | 15.74% | 9,488 |
| Calhoun | 35,101 | 68.85% | 15,216 | 29.85% | 666 | 1.30% | 19,885 | 39.00% | 50,983 |
| Chambers | 8,753 | 57.27% | 6,365 | 41.64% | 166 | 1.09% | 2,388 | 15.63% | 15,284 |
| Cherokee | 10,583 | 86.03% | 1,624 | 13.20% | 94 | 0.77% | 8,959 | 72.83% | 12,301 |
| Chilton | 16,085 | 83.30% | 3,073 | 15.91% | 152 | 0.79% | 13,012 | 67.39% | 19,310 |
| Choctaw | 4,296 | 57.56% | 3,127 | 41.89% | 41 | 0.55% | 1,169 | 15.67% | 7,464 |
| Clarke | 7,324 | 55.76% | 5,755 | 43.81% | 56 | 0.43% | 1,569 | 11.95% | 13,135 |
| Clay | 5,601 | 80.82% | 1,267 | 18.28% | 62 | 0.90% | 4,334 | 62.54% | 6,930 |
| Cleburne | 6,484 | 89.72% | 675 | 9.34% | 68 | 0.94% | 5,809 | 80.38% | 7,227 |
| Coffee | 16,899 | 75.87% | 5,076 | 22.79% | 300 | 1.34% | 11,823 | 53.08% | 22,275 |
| Colbert | 19,203 | 68.86% | 8,343 | 29.92% | 340 | 1.22% | 10,860 | 38.94% | 27,886 |
| Conecuh | 3,442 | 53.44% | 2,966 | 46.05% | 33 | 0.51% | 476 | 7.39% | 6,441 |
| Coosa | 3,631 | 66.27% | 1,796 | 32.78% | 52 | 0.95% | 1,835 | 33.49% | 5,479 |
| Covington | 14,586 | 83.68% | 2,721 | 15.61% | 123 | 0.71% | 11,865 | 68.07% | 17,430 |
| Crenshaw | 4,864 | 73.51% | 1,700 | 25.69% | 53 | 0.80% | 3,164 | 47.82% | 6,617 |
| Cullman | 36,880 | 88.12% | 4,478 | 10.70% | 493 | 1.18% | 32,402 | 77.42% | 41,851 |
| Dale | 14,303 | 72.46% | 5,170 | 26.19% | 265 | 1.35% | 9,133 | 46.27% | 19,738 |
| Dallas | 5,524 | 30.92% | 12,230 | 68.46% | 110 | 0.62% | -6,706 | -37.54% | 17,864 |
| DeKalb | 24,767 | 84.37% | 4,281 | 14.58% | 308 | 1.05% | 20,486 | 69.79% | 29,356 |
| Elmore | 30,164 | 73.52% | 10,367 | 25.27% | 499 | 1.21% | 19,797 | 48.25% | 41,030 |
| Escambia | 10,869 | 68.32% | 4,918 | 30.91% | 123 | 0.77% | 5,951 | 37.41% | 15,910 |
| Etowah | 35,528 | 74.44% | 11,567 | 24.24% | 633 | 1.32% | 23,961 | 50.20% | 47,728 |
| Fayette | 7,300 | 83.28% | 1,395 | 15.91% | 71 | 0.81% | 5,905 | 67.37% | 8,766 |
| Franklin | 10,376 | 82.49% | 2,086 | 16.58% | 116 | 0.93% | 8,290 | 65.91% | 12,578 |
| Geneva | 10,848 | 86.47% | 1,595 | 12.71% | 102 | 0.82% | 9,253 | 73.76% | 12,545 |
| Greene | 875 | 18.32% | 3,884 | 81.34% | 16 | 0.34% | -3,009 | -63.02% | 4,775 |
| Hale | 3,192 | 40.41% | 4,663 | 59.03% | 45 | 0.56% | -1,471 | -18.62% | 7,900 |
| Henry | 6,607 | 71.06% | 2,606 | 28.03% | 85 | 0.91% | 4,001 | 43.03% | 9,298 |
| Houston | 32,618 | 70.64% | 12,917 | 27.98% | 638 | 1.38% | 19,701 | 42.66% | 46,173 |
| Jackson | 19,670 | 83.22% | 3,717 | 15.73% | 249 | 1.05% | 15,953 | 67.49% | 23,636 |
| Jefferson | 138,843 | 42.61% | 181,688 | 55.76% | 5,317 | 1.63% | -42,845 | -13.15% | 325,848 |
| Lamar | 6,174 | 85.83% | 978 | 13.60% | 41 | 0.57% | 5,196 | 72.23% | 7,193 |
| Lauderdale | 31,721 | 71.54% | 11,915 | 26.87% | 703 | 1.59% | 19,806 | 44.67% | 44,339 |
| Lawrence | 12,322 | 76.86% | 3,562 | 22.22% | 147 | 0.92% | 8,760 | 54.64% | 16,031 |
| Lee | 42,221 | 59.09% | 27,860 | 38.99% | 1,368 | 1.92% | 14,361 | 20.10% | 71,449 |
| Limestone | 34,640 | 70.36% | 13,672 | 27.77% | 923 | 1.87% | 20,968 | 42.59% | 49,235 |
| Lowndes | 1,836 | 26.86% | 4,972 | 72.74% | 27 | 0.40% | -3,136 | -45.88% | 6,835 |
| Macon | 1,541 | 17.67% | 7,108 | 81.49% | 74 | 0.84% | -5,567 | -63.82% | 8,723 |
| Madison | 102,780 | 52.77% | 87,286 | 44.82% | 4,701 | 2.41% | 15,494 | 7.95% | 194,767 |
| Marengo | 5,343 | 49.02% | 5,488 | 50.35% | 69 | 0.63% | -145 | -1.33% | 10,900 |
| Marion | 12,205 | 88.40% | 1,463 | 10.60% | 139 | 1.00% | 10,742 | 77.80% | 13,807 |
| Marshall | 33,191 | 83.70% | 5,943 | 14.99% | 521 | 1.31% | 27,248 | 68.71% | 39,655 |
| Mobile | 101,243 | 55.27% | 79,474 | 43.39% | 2,447 | 1.34% | 21,769 | 11.88% | 183,164 |
| Monroe | 6,147 | 57.62% | 4,455 | 41.76% | 66 | 0.62% | 1,692 | 15.86% | 10,668 |
| Montgomery | 33,311 | 33.60% | 64,529 | 65.09% | 1,299 | 1.31% | -31,218 | -31.49% | 99,139 |
| Morgan | 39,664 | 73.83% | 13,234 | 24.63% | 824 | 1.54% | 26,430 | 49.20% | 53,722 |
| Perry | 1,339 | 25.60% | 3,860 | 73.80% | 31 | 0.60% | -2,521 | -48.20% | 5,230 |
| Pickens | 5,594 | 57.86% | 4,022 | 41.60% | 52 | 0.54% | 1,572 | 16.26% | 9,668 |
| Pike | 8,042 | 58.10% | 5,636 | 40.72% | 163 | 1.18% | 2,406 | 17.38% | 13,841 |
| Randolph | 8,559 | 78.98% | 2,203 | 20.33% | 75 | 0.69% | 6,356 | 58.65% | 10,837 |
| Russell | 9,864 | 46.25% | 11,228 | 52.64% | 237 | 1.11% | -1,564 | -6.39% | 21,329 |
| Shelby | 79,700 | 69.33% | 33,268 | 28.94% | 1,982 | 1.73% | 46,432 | 40.39% | 114,950 |
| St. Clair | 36,166 | 81.38% | 7,744 | 17.43% | 531 | 1.19% | 28,422 | 63.95% | 44,441 |
| Sumter | 1,598 | 25.40% | 4,648 | 73.88% | 45 | 0.72% | -3,050 | -48.48% | 6,291 |
| Talladega | 22,235 | 62.35% | 13,138 | 36.84% | 290 | 0.81% | 9,097 | 25.51% | 35,663 |
| Tallapoosa | 14,963 | 71.28% | 5,859 | 27.91% | 169 | 0.81% | 9,104 | 43.37% | 20,991 |
| Tuscaloosa | 51,117 | 56.69% | 37,765 | 41.88% | 1,290 | 1.43% | 13,352 | 14.81% | 90,172 |
| Walker | 26,002 | 83.42% | 4,834 | 15.51% | 334 | 1.07% | 21,168 | 67.91% | 31,170 |
| Washington | 6,564 | 73.95% | 2,258 | 25.44% | 54 | 0.61% | 4,306 | 48.51% | 8,876 |
| Wilcox | 1,833 | 31.05% | 4,048 | 68.58% | 22 | 0.37% | -2,215 | -37.53% | 5,903 |
| Winston | 10,195 | 90.35% | 974 | 8.63% | 115 | 1.02% | 9,221 | 81.72% | 11,284 |
| Totals | 1,441,170 | 62.03% | 849,624 | 36.57% | 32,488 | 1.40% | 591,546 | 25.46% | 2,323,282 |
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[50] Trump's 81.2% in Alabama's 4th district was his best showing of any congressional district in the nation.
| District | Trump | Biden | Elected representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63.7% | 35.3% | Jerry Carl |
| 2nd | 63.9% | 35.1% | Barry Moore |
| 3rd | 65.3% | 33.7% | Mike Rogers |
| 4th | 81.2% | 17.8% | Robert Aderholt |
| 5th | 62.7% | 35.7% | Mo Brooks |
| 6th | 67.0% | 31.8% | Gary Palmer |
| 7th | 28.5% | 70.8% | Terri Sewell |
Analysis
[edit]A socially conservative Bible Belt state, Alabama has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election starting in 1980, and has done so by double-digit margins in all of them except 1980, 1992, and 1996. Most analysts expected the state to be uncompetitive.
Biden only won Jefferson County and 12 counties in the Black Belt; Trump won all other counties.
This election coincided with the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Alabama, where incumbent Democrat Doug Jones – who was elected by a 21,924 vote margin in a 2017 special election – ran for a full six-year term but was defeated by Republican football coach Tommy Tuberville. Despite losing, Jones outperformed Biden by 5.1 percentage points.
Exit polls
[edit]Edison
[edit]The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the Edison Research for the National Election Pool (encompassing ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) interviewing 1,201 Alabama voters, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[51]
| 2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[52] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 36.57 | 62.03 | 99 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 91 | 8 | 14 |
| Moderates | 54 | 44 | 36 |
| Conservatives | 8 | 92 | 50 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 95 | 5 | 26 |
| Republicans | 2 | 97 | 53 |
| Independents | 49 | 44 | 21 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 35 | 63 | 45 |
| Women | 39 | 61 | 55 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 21 | 77 | 74 |
| Black | 89 | 11 | 22 |
| Hispanic or Latino | – | – | 3 |
| Asian | – | – | 0 |
| Other | – | – | 1 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 54 | 44 | 15 |
| 30–44 years old | 40 | 57 | 23 |
| 45–64 years old | 37 | 62 | 37 |
| 65 and older | 23 | 77 | 25 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 5 |
| Heterosexual | 32 | 66 | 95 |
| Education | |||
| Never attended college | 26 | 73 | 20 |
| Some college education | 40 | 60 | 25 |
| Associate degree | 29 | 70 | 17 |
| Bachelor's degree | 40 | 57 | 23 |
| Postgraduate degree | 52 | 47 | 14 |
| Income | |||
| Less than $50,000 | 35 | 65 | 37 |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 38 | 60 | 31 |
| $100,000 or more | 33 | 67 | 32 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Racial inequality | 93 | 5 | 18 |
| Coronavirus | – | – | 7 |
| Economy | 8 | 91 | 49 |
| Crime and safety | – | – | 15 |
| Health care | – | – | 7 |
| Region | |||
| North | 29 | 70 | 24 |
| North Central | 26 | 72 | 26 |
| Birmingham/South Central | 56 | 42 | 28 |
| South | 33 | 66 | 22 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 58 | 39 | 25 |
| Suburban | 27 | 72 | 56 |
| Rural | 37 | 61 | 20 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 17 | 82 | 60 |
| Worse than four years ago | 67 | 33 | 11 |
| About the same | 64 | 34 | 27 |
Associated Press
[edit]The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 1,905 likely voters in Alabama, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[53]
| 2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[53] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | Jorgensen | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 36.57 | 62.03 | 1.08 | 100 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 86 | 13 | 1 | 20 |
| Moderates | 55 | 42 | 2 | 28 |
| Conservatives | 7 | 92 | 1 | 51 |
| Party | ||||
| Democrats or lean Democrat | 96 | 3 | 1 | 33 |
| Republicans or lean Republican | 4 | 94 | 1 | 63 |
| Independents | 54 | 40 | 4 | 4 |
| Type of vote | ||||
| Election Day | 31 | 67 | 1 | 83 |
| 62 | 37 | 1 | 17 | |
| Vote in 2016 | ||||
| Hillary Clinton | 97 | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| Donald Trump | 3 | 96 | 1 | 53 |
| Someone else | 54 | 30 | 12 | 4 |
| Did not vote | 41 | 57 | 1 | 16 |
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 32 | 66 | 1 | 46 |
| Women | 40 | 59 | 1 | 53 |
| Race/ethnicity | ||||
| White | 20 | 78 | 1 | 75 |
| Black | 91 | 8 | 1 | 22 |
| Hispanic or Latino | – | – | – | 1 |
| Asian | – | – | – | <1 |
| American Indian, Native American, or Alaska Native | – | – | – | <1 |
| Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander | – | – | – | <1 |
| Other | – | – | – | 1 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 50 | 45 | 3 | 6 |
| 25–29 years old | 39 | 59 | 1 | 6 |
| 30–39 years old | 37 | 60 | 2 | 14 |
| 40–49 years old | 44 | 55 | 1 | 15 |
| 50–64 years old | 35 | 64 | 1 | 30 |
| 65 and older | 30 | 69 | <1 | 29 |
| Religion | ||||
| Protestant | 23 | 75 | 1 | 40 |
| Catholic | 40 | 59 | 1 | 7 |
| Mormon | – | – | – | 1 |
| Other Christian | 35 | 63 | 1 | 26 |
| Jewish | – | – | – | 1 |
| Muslim | – | – | – | <1 |
| Something else | 56 | 43 | 1 | 11 |
| None | 60 | 38 | 2 | 13 |
| White evangelical or white-born again Christian | ||||
| Yes | 12 | 88 | <1 | 53 |
| No | 52 | 46 | 1 | 47 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 31 | 68 | 1 | 52 |
| Not married | 48 | 52 | 1 | 48 |
| Sexual orientation | ||||
| LGBT | – | – | – | 9 |
| Heterosexual | 35 | 64 | 1 | 91 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 33 | 66 | <1 | 33 |
| Some college education or associate degree | 36 | 63 | 1 | 36 |
| College graduate | 39 | 58 | 3 | 20 |
| Postgraduate degree | 44 | 53 | 1 | 11 |
| Total household income (2019) | ||||
| Under $25,000 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 21 |
| $25,000–$49,999 | 36 | 63 | 1 | 27 |
| $50,000–$74,999 | 33 | 66 | <1 | 18 |
| $75,000–$99,999 | 30 | 68 | 2 | 14 |
| Over $100,000 | 32 | 66 | 1 | 19 |
| Union households | ||||
| Yes | – | – | – | 8 |
| No | 35 | 63 | 2 | 92 |
| Veteran households | ||||
| Yes | 30 | 69 | <1 | 32 |
| No | 36 | 62 | 1 | 68 |
| Issue regarded as most important | ||||
| Economy and jobs | 9 | 89 | 2 | 32 |
| Healthcare | 54 | 46 | <1 | 9 |
| Immigration | – | – | – | 5 |
| Abortion | – | – | – | 3 |
| Law enforcement | – | – | – | 5 |
| Climate change | – | – | – | 1 |
| Foreign policy | – | – | – | 1 |
| COVID-19 pandemic | 58 | 40 | 1 | 33 |
| Racism | 68 | 29 | 1 | 10 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 59 | 40 | <1 | 13 |
| Suburban | 42 | 55 | 2 | 32 |
| Small town | 34 | 64 | 1 | 26 |
| Rural | 23 | 77 | <1 | 30 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Alabama
- 2020 United States elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential debates
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential forums
- Results of the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential debates
- Results of the 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama
- 2020 United States House of Representatives elections
- Elections in Alabama
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b Candidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during the first days of the absentee voting period.
- ^ CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
- ^ NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- ^ "Refused" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Trump does not deserve to be re-elected" with 42% as opposed to "Trump deserves to be re-elected"
- ^ Jorgensen and Cohen were nominated by the Libertarian Party of Alabama but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Tommy Tuberville's campaign.
- ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
- ^ Poll sponsored by Doug Jones' campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ a b "2020 November General Election Sample Ballot". Alabama Secretary of State. Archived from the original on September 20, 2020. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
- ^ a b "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Alabama". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
- ^ Sean Ross (January 17, 2020). "View your county's sample ballot for Alabama's March 3 primary election". Yellowhammer News. Retrieved February 4, 2020.
- ^ a b "Republican Party – Official 2020 Primary Election Results". Alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. March 11, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- ^ a b "Alabama Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
- ^ "Democratic Party – Official 2020 Primary Election Results". Alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. March 11, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ "Niskanen Center electoral college map". 270toWin. September 15, 2020. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "Alabama 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Alabama : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ "Swayable". Archived from the original on November 13, 2020.
- ^ "Data for Progress" (PDF).
- ^ "Auburn University At Montgomery" (PDF).
- ^ "Swayable". www.swayable.com.
- ^ Cason, Mike (October 19, 2020). "Tuberville campaign tells potential donors he's fallen behind Jones". al.
- ^ "AUM Poll: Tommy Tuberville leads Doug Jones by 12 points in closing weeks of Alabama Senate race - AUM". Archived from the original on November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance" (PDF).
- ^ "Republicans Lead Senate Races in Alabama, Kentucky and Texas, With South Carolina Tied". Morning Consult Pro.
- ^ "Auburn University at Montgomery" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 13, 2020.
- ^ "x.com".
- ^ a b c d e Stacy, Todd (February 11, 2020). "Trump leads Democratic contenders in Alabama poll". Alabama Daily News.
- ^ a b Poor, Jeff (January 28, 2020). "Poll: Doug Jones reelection chances take hit if he votes to remove Trump".
- ^ "JMC Analytics" (PDF).
- ^ "TRUMP, DONALD J. - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 2019. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 2019. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "JORGENSEN, JO - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 2015. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "Faithless Elector State Laws". FairVote. July 7, 2020. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "Alabama Code Title 17. Elections § 17-14-31". FindLaw. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "Certification of Dem Electors" (PDF). alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
- ^ "GOP Final Certification 8-27-2020" (PDF). alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
- ^ "Elector Statements for Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy Spike Cohen" (PDF). alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
- ^ "State of Alabama: Canvass of Results" (PDF). November 23, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". m.dailykos.com/. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
- ^ "Alabama Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "Alabama 2020 President exit polls". CNN. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ a b "Alabama Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington, D.C.: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Alabama
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Alabama", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Alabama: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Alabama". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Alabama at Ballotpedia
