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Deutsch2020 United States presidential election in Maine
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| Elections in Maine |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district.
On election day, Biden carried Maine at-large by nine percentage points and the 1st congressional district by 23 percentage points, garnering three electoral votes. However, the rural 2nd district backed Trump by more than seven percentage points, giving him one electoral vote.[3] This was the same result as 2016, and as such marked only the second time since 1828 that Maine split its electoral votes. Also this is the first time since 1828 where the candidate who win of election and the national popular at the same time didn't receive all Maine electoral votes. Finally, it's also the first election where ME-2 didn't vote for the winner of election and the winner of the national popular at the same time while ME-1 and Maine at large did the opposite.
Maine became the first state to use ranked-choice voting for a presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot.[4] Majorities were reached in the first round of voting statewide and in each congressional district, so ranked-choice voting tabulation was not required.[5]
Biden performed strongly with college-educated[6] voters to win Maine.[7] Maine weighed in for this election as 5% more Democratic than the national average.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[10] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 95,360 | 83.85 | 22 |
| Blank ballots | 18,368 | 16.15 | 0 |
| Total | 113,728 | 100% | 22 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Joe Biden won the state primary. Opponent Bernie Sanders won the Maine caucus in 2016.
.svg)
Biden—30–40%
Biden—40–50%
Sanders—30–40%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[12] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 68,729 | 33.37 | 11 |
| Bernie Sanders | 66,826 | 32.45 | 9 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 32,055 | 15.57 | 4 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 24,294 | 11.80 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] | 4,364 | 2.12 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] | 2,826 | 1.37 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1,815 | 0.88 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] | 696 | 0.34 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] | 313 | 0.15 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] | 218 | 0.11 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 201 | 0.10 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.09 | |
| Blank ballots | 3,417 | 1.66 | |
| Total | 205,937 | 100% | 24 |
Libertarian nominee
[edit]- Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University
Green nominee
[edit]- Howie Hawkins, co-founder of the Green Party, trade unionist and environmental activist
Alliance nominee
[edit]- Rocky De La Fuente, businessman
General election
[edit]Ballot access
[edit]The Libertarian Party was recognized by Maine as an official party in June 2016 but lost that status in December 2018. To qualify for ballot access, Jorgensen was required to submit 4,000 petition signatures to the state by August 3. Jorgensen sued the state for a reduction of the signature requirement, citing an increase in the difficulty of petitioning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.[13] Jorgensen was successful in appearing on the ballot.
Final predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking (statewide) | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Likely D | Solid D | Tossup |
| Inside Elections[15] | Solid D | Solid D | Tossup |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely D | Safe D | Lean R |
| Politico[17] | Likely D | Solid D | Tossup |
| RCP[18] | Lean D | Likely D | Tossup |
| Niskanen[19] | Safe D | Safe D | Likely R |
| CNN[20] | Solid D | Solid D | Tossup |
| The Economist[21] | Safe D | Not given | Not given |
| CBS News[22] | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup |
| 270towin[23] | Likely D | Safe D | Tossup |
| ABC News[24] | Solid D | Solid D | Tossup |
| NPR[25] | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup |
| NBC News[26] | Likely D | Solid D | Tossup |
| 538[27] | Likely D | Solid D | Tossup |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary (statewide)
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [c] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | October 6 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 51.8% | 40.2% | 8.0% | Biden +11.6 |
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 53.3% | 40.3% | 6.4% | Biden +13.0 |
| Average | 53.1% | 40.3% | 7.2% | Biden +12.3 | ||
Statewide polls
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[d] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[30] | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 52% | 4% | 2% | 1%[e] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,274 (LV) | ± 4% | 42%[f] | 56% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[32] | Oct 29–31, 2020 | 611 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43%[g] | 54% | – | – | 2%[h] | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,995 (LV) | – | 43% | 56% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyUSA/FairVote[33] | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40%[i] | 53% | 2% | 2% | 1%[j] | 2% |
| 42%[k] | 55% | – | – | 1%[l] | 2% | ||||
| Colby College[34] | Oct 21–25, 2020 | 879 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 51% | – | – | 4%[m] | 8% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[35] | Oct 2–6, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 50% | – | – | 6%[n] | 4% |
| Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[36] | Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 | 466 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40%[i] | 51% | 3% | 1% | 2%[o] | 3% |
| 40%[p] | 52% | – | – | 5%[q] | 3% | ||||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 729 (LV) | – | 38% | 60% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D)[37] | Sep 23–28, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 39%[i] | 53% | 2% | 1% | – | 5% |
| 41%[r] | 55% | – | – | – | 4% | ||||
| Colby College[38] | Sep 17–23, 2020 | 847 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 50% | – | – | 4%[s] | 6% |
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe[39] | Sep 17–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 39%[i] | 51% | 1% | 0% | 1%[t] | 7% |
| 39%[k] | 51% | – | – | 2%[u] | 8% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[40] | Sep 11–16, 2020 | 663 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 38%[v] | 55% | 0% | 0% | 1%[w] | 6%[x] |
| Quinnipiac University[41] | Sep 10–14, 2020 | 1,183 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 38% | 59% | – | – | 0%[y] | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[42] | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 54% | – | – | 1%[z] | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 502 (LV) | – | 37% | 61% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[43] | Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 | 453 (LV) | – | 38% | 45% | – | – | 11%[aa] | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[44] | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 52% | – | – | 6%[ab] | 4% |
| RMG Research[45] | Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 39% | 50% | – | – | 7%[ac] | 4% |
| Data for Progress[46] | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 866 (LV) | – | 42%[i] | 49% | 1% | 1% | – | 7% |
| 43%[ad] | 53% | – | – | – | 4% | ||||
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 733 (LV) | – | 41% | 57% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[47][A] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 962 (V) | – | 42% | 53% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Colby College/SocialSphere[48] | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 50% | – | – | 5%[ae] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[49] | Jul 2–3, 2020 | 1,022 (V) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 53% | – | – | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 202 (LV) | – | 46% | 51% | – | – | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | Mar 2–3, 2020 | 872 (V) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 52% | – | – | – | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | Oct 11–13, 2019 | 939 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 54% | – | – | – | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP[52] | Jul 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 50% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing[53] | Jun 24, 2019 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
Maine's 1st congressional district
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [c] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | October 6 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 57.8% | 35.0% | 7.2% | Biden +22.8 |
| Real Clear Politics[54] | September 17 – October 6, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 56.7% | 34.3% | 9.0% | Biden +22.4 |
with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[d] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[30] | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 549 (LV) | – | 35% | 56% | 4% | 3% | – | – |
| Emerson College[32] | Oct 29–31, 2020 | 310 (LV) | – | 39% | 58% | – | – | 3%[af] | 1% |
| SurveyUSA/FairVote[33] | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 498 (LV) | – | 35%[i] | 59% | 2% | 2% | 1%[j] | 2% |
| 36%[k] | 61% | – | – | 1%[l] | 2% | ||||
| Colby College[34] | Oct 21–25, 2020 | 426 (LV) | – | 34% | 56% | – | – | 4%[m] | 7% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[35] | Oct 2–6, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 37% | 54% | – | – | 7% | – |
| Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[36] | Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 | 232 (LV) | – | 30% | 62% | 3% | 1% | 2%[ag] | 3% |
| Colby College[38] | Sep 17–23, 2020 | 416 (LV) | – | 36% | 54% | – | – | 5%[ah] | 5% |
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe[39] | Sep 17–20, 2020 | 267 (LV) | – | 33%[i] | 54% | 2% | 0% | 1%[t] | 9% |
| 34%[k] | 55% | 0% | 0% | 2%[ai] | 9% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[41] | Sep 10–14, 2020 | 707 (LV) | – | 32% | 64% | – | – | 1%[aj] | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[42] | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 433 (LV) | – | 35% | 58% | – | – | – | – |
| Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[55] | Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 | 250 (LV) | – | 33% | 49% | – | – | 11%[ak] | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[56] | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 392 (LV)[al] | – | 30% | 61% | – | – | 6%[am] | 3% |
| Colby College/SocialSphere[38] | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 425 (LV) | – | 35% | 55% | – | – | 6%[an] | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | Oct 11–13, 2019 | 478 (LV) | – | 38% | 58% | – | – | – | 3% |
Maine's 2nd congressional district
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [c] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[28] | October 6 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.4% | 45.2% | 8.4% | Biden +1.2 |
| Real Clear Politics[57] | September 17 – October 6, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | 44.7% | 45.0% | 10.3% | Trump +0.3 |
with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[d] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Howie Hawkins Green | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[30] | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 475 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46%[i] | 47% | 4% | 1% | 0%[ao] | 1% |
| 50%[ap] | 50% | – | – | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College[32] | Oct 29–31, 2020 | 301 (LV) | – | 47% | 50% | – | – | 3%[af] | 0% |
| SurveyUSA/FairVote[33] | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 509 (LV) | – | 45%[i] | 48% | 2% | 2% | 1%[j] | 2% |
| 49%[aq] | 51% | – | – | – | – | ||||
| Colby College[34] | Oct 21–25, 2020 | 453 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | – | – | 4%[m] | 9% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[35] | Oct 2–6, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 43% | 47% | – | – | 6% | – |
| Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[36] | Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 | 234 (LV) | – | 49% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 1%[ar] | 3% |
| Colby College[38] | Sep 17–23, 2020 | 425 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | – | 3%[as] | 8% |
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe[39] | Sep 17–20, 2020 | 233 (LV) | – | 45%[i] | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1%[at] | 6% |
| 45%[k] | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1%[au] | 6% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[58][1] | Sep 11–16, 2020 | 440 (LV) | – | 45%[v] | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University[41] | Sep 10–14, 2020 | 476 (LV) | – | 44% | 53% | – | – | 0%[y] | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[42] | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 367 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | – | – | – | – |
| Left of Centre PAC[59][B] | Aug 25–28, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 48% | – | – | – | 3% |
| Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News[55] | Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 | 249 (LV) | – | 38% | 39% | – | – | 12%[av] | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[56] | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 382 (RV)[al] | – | 45% | 44% | – | – | 6%[ab] | 5% |
| Colby College/SocialSphere[60] | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 449 (LV) | – | 42% | 45% | – | – | 4%[m] | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | Oct 11–13, 2019 | 461 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 4% |
Former candidates | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st congressional district
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st congressional district
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st congressional district
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st congressional district
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd congressional district
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd congressional district
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd congressional district
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd congressional district
|
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with Generic Democrat
with Generic Opponent
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st congressional district
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd congressional district
|
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 435,072 | 53.09% | +5.26% | |
| Republican | Donald J. Trump Michael R. Pence | 360,737 | 44.02% | −0.85% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 14,152 | 1.73% | −3.36% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker | 8,230 | 1.00% | −0.91% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson | 1,183 | 0.14% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 87 | 0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 819,461 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic win | |||||
By county
[edit] |
| County | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Androscoggin | 27,617 | 47.04% | 29,268 | 49.85% | 1,822 | 3.11% | -1,651 | -2.81% | 58,707 |
| Aroostook | 13,956 | 39.04% | 21,113 | 59.06% | 677 | 1.90% | -7,157 | -20.02% | 35,746 |
| Cumberland | 128,759 | 66.45% | 59,584 | 30.75% | 5,422 | 2.80% | 69,175 | 35.70% | 193,765 |
| Franklin | 8,069 | 46.40% | 8,754 | 50.34% | 567 | 3.26% | -685 | -3.94% | 17,390 |
| Hancock | 19,369 | 54.83% | 14,982 | 42.41% | 974 | 2.76% | 4,387 | 12.42% | 35,325 |
| Kennebec | 34,902 | 48.57% | 34,721 | 48.32% | 2,235 | 3.11% | 181 | 0.25% | 71,858 |
| Knox | 15,110 | 58.72% | 9,982 | 38.79% | 642 | 2.49% | 5,128 | 19.93% | 25,734 |
| Lincoln | 12,684 | 53.76% | 10,256 | 43.47% | 654 | 2.77% | 2,428 | 10.29% | 23,594 |
| Oxford | 14,755 | 44.06% | 17,698 | 52.84% | 1,039 | 3.10% | -2,943 | -8.78% | 33,492 |
| Penobscot | 37,713 | 44.23% | 44,825 | 52.57% | 2,731 | 3.20% | -7,112 | -8.34% | 85,269 |
| Piscataquis | 3,517 | 35.50% | 6,143 | 62.00% | 248 | 2.50% | -2,626 | -26.50% | 9,908 |
| Sagadahoc | 13,528 | 56.28% | 9,755 | 40.58% | 755 | 3.14% | 3,773 | 15.70% | 24,038 |
| Somerset | 10,199 | 36.98% | 16,644 | 60.35% | 735 | 2.67% | -6,445 | -23.37% | 27,578 |
| Waldo | 12,345 | 50.76% | 11,196 | 46.03% | 781 | 3.21% | 1,149 | 4.73% | 24,322 |
| Washington | 6,761 | 38.95% | 10,194 | 58.73% | 402 | 2.32% | -3,433 | -19.78% | 17,357 |
| York | 71,189 | 54.90% | 54,817 | 42.28% | 3,653 | 2.82% | 16,372 | 12.62% | 129,659 |
| Total | 435,072 | 53.09% | 360,770 | 44.03% | 23,619 | 2.88% | 74,302 | 9.06% | 819,461 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
[edit]Biden won the first of Maine's two congressional districts. Trump won the other district, which elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in the same election cycle.[63]
| District | Biden | Trump | Other | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| 1st | 266,376 | 60.12% | 164,045 | 37.02% | 12,646 | 2.85% | Chellie Pingree |
| 2nd | 168,696 | 44.83% | 196,692 | 52.27% | 10,919 | 2.90% | Jared Golden |
Analysis
[edit]Biden carried the Pine Tree State by a 9.07% margin over Trump, improving over Hillary Clinton's 3% win margin in 2016. Biden handily carried Maine's 1st congressional district by 23%, while Trump carried its 2nd congressional district by 7.4%, winning a single electoral vote from the state. This marked the first election in history in which Maine and Nebraska both split their electoral votes. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Biden earned a majority statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump earned a majority in the 2nd district. Biden narrowly flipped Kennebec County (home to the state capital, Augusta) four years after Clinton lost it. All other counties favored the same party they did in 2016.[64]
Maine is located in New England, an area that has become a Democratic Party stronghold. It was once a classic Rockefeller Republican state, but social issues have moved it to the Democratic column. The last Republican to win all its electoral votes was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maine came from liberals, with Biden winning whites 54%–44%, including 56% of white women. Biden was even competitive with Trump among Maine's gun owners, a traditionally Republican interest group, capturing 42% of their vote to Trump's 57%.[65]
This was the first presidential election since 2004 in which Maine's 2nd congressional district backed the losing candidate, and the 2nd district is the only part of the so-called Blue Wall which Trump won in 2020, referring to states and electoral-vote areas that voted Democratic in every election from 1992 to 2012; Biden thus became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the White House without carrying this district, and consequently also the first since said election to win without carrying all of the electoral votes located in New England. Biden also became the first Democrat since 1892 to win the White House without carrying Androscoggin County, the first since 1976 to do so without carrying Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, or Washington counties, and the first since 1992 to do so without carrying Somerset County.
Edison exit polls
[edit]| 2020 presidential election in Maine by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[66][67] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 53.09 | 44.02 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 93 | 4 | 28 |
| Moderates | 61 | 37 | 42 |
| Conservatives | 9 | 89 | 30 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 94 | 5 | 28 |
| Republicans | 9 | 89 | 31 |
| Independents | 59 | 35 | 41 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 42 | 52 | 41 |
| Women | 61 | 38 | 59 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 53 | 44 | 95 |
| Non-white | 47 | 46 | 5 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 66 | 31 | 8 |
| 25–29 years old | 53 | 37 | 7 |
| 30–39 years old | 59 | 38 | 13 |
| 40–49 years old | 38 | 56 | 13 |
| 50–64 years old | 49 | 50 | 31 |
| 65 and older | 59 | 40 | 28 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 6 |
| Not LGBT | 54 | 43 | 94 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 35 | 62 | 21 |
| Some college education | 50 | 47 | 28 |
| Associate degree | 47 | 49 | 12 |
| Bachelor's degree | 67 | 32 | 22 |
| Postgraduate degree | 66 | 30 | 17 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Racial inequality | 96 | 3 | 15 |
| Coronavirus | 88 | 10 | 21 |
| Economy | 6 | 92 | 35 |
| Crime and safety | – | – | 8 |
| Health care | – | – | 11 |
| Region | |||
| Portland area | 73 | 23 | 17 |
| Southern Maine | 54 | 43 | 36 |
| Bangor/Auburn | 48 | 48 | 18 |
| Downeast/Upcountry | 43 | 55 | 29 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | – | – | 5 |
| Suburban | 55 | 42 | 45 |
| Rural | 50 | 48 | 51 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 16 | 80 | 38 |
| Worse than four years ago | 91 | 8 | 21 |
| About the same | 66 | 32 | 38 |
See also
[edit]- 2020 Maine elections
- United States presidential elections in Maine
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the date of the election.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
- ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Did not vote with 1%; "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Standard VI response
- ^ a b c De La Fuente (A) with 1%
- ^ a b c d e Reassigning the second and third preferences of non-Biden/Trump voters
- ^ a b "No second choice"/"no third choice" with 1%
- ^ a b c d "One of the minor party candidates" with 4%
- ^ "All other candidates" with 6%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
- ^ Ressigning the second preferences of Hawkins and Jorgensen voters
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A), "No second preference" and "Someone else" with 1%; Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) with no voters
- ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
- ^ "A minor party candidate" with 4%
- ^ a b "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with 0%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) and "Other" with no voters
- ^ a b Topline after Ranked-Choice Voting is used
- ^ "Someone else" with 0%; would not vote with 1%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ Would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 7%
- ^ If only Biden and Trump were candidates
- ^ "One of the minor party candidates" with 5%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Refused" and "Someone else" with 1%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
- ^ "A minor party candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A) with 0%; "Other" with no voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%; "Prefer not to say" with 2%; Would not vote with 1%
- ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ "One of the minor party candidates" with 6%
- ^ Did not vote, "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ After three rounds of ranked choice voting
- ^ With Ranked Choice Voting
- ^ "Refused" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
- ^ "A minor party candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Fuente (A) with no voters
- ^ "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with no voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 2%
- ^ "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" and "Undecided at this time" with 15%
- ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 15%; Undecided with 5%
- ^ "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
- ^ "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. Retrieved August 25, 2017.
- ^ Thistle, Scott (September 6, 2019). "Gov. Mills allows ranked-choice voting in Maine's presidential elections". Press Herald. Retrieved September 6, 2019.
- ^ "A Timeline of Ranked-choice Voting in Maine" (PDF). Maine Department of the Secretary of State.
- ^ "Maine 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
- ^ N. P. R. Staff (November 3, 2020). "Maine Live Election Results 2020". NPR. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
- ^ "Maine Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- ^ "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Tabulations June 12, 2018". maine.gov. Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- ^ "Maine Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
- ^ "March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election: Tabulation of Votes". State of Maine Department of the Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Maine Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
- ^ Shepherd, Michael (July 31, 2020). "Libertarian presidential candidate sues Maine in bid to loosen ballot access rules". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved August 2, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ a b c "Maine 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Maine : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c "x.com".
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ a b c "Emerson Polling - Super Poll Sunday: Biden with Slight Lead over Trump in Pennsylvania; Maine's Second District Competitive". emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
- ^ a b c Piper, Jessica (October 29, 2020). "Sara Gideon, Susan Collins nearly tied in poll finding ranked-choice voting gives Democrat edge". Bangor Daily News.
- ^ a b c "Colby College - Maine Wave 4- Banners". Google Docs.
- ^ a b c "Pan Atlantic Research 56th Omnibus Report.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ a b c "BDN DRI Survey of Voters in Maine (Profile of Those Highly Likely to Vote).pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Data for Progress (D)" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d "Government | Colby College".
- ^ a b c "Collins trails Gideon in Maine Senate race, according to a new Suffolk/Globe poll - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com.
- ^ "Siena College/NYT Upshot" (PDF).
- ^ a b c "Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll".
- ^ a b c "Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP" (PDF).
- ^ "Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News" (PDF).
- ^ "Quinnipiac University". Archived from the original on August 7, 2020.
- ^ "RMG Research" (PDF).
- ^ "Data for Progress" (PDF).
- ^ "Public Policy Polling/AFSCME" (PDF).
- ^ "Government | Colby College" (PDF).
- ^ "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
- ^ a b "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
- ^ "Fabrizio Ward/AARP" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e "Gravis Marketing" (PDF).
- ^ "2020 Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
- ^ a b "Data Tables for the DRI and BDN Poll of Voters in Maine.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ a b "Quinnipiac University" (PDF).
- ^ "2020 Maine CD2 Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
- ^ "x.com".
- ^ "Left of Centre PAC" (PDF).
- ^ Colby College/SocialSphere
- ^ a b c "200217_Colby_College_Banners_(Wave 1)". Google Docs.
- ^ "Pan Atlantic Research 55th Omnibus Poll.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ a b "U.S. President by Congressional District". Maine Department of the Secretary of State. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
- ^ "Maine presidential election results 2020: Live results and polls". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
- ^ "Maine Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Maine 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
- ^ "Maine Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Maine
External links
[edit]- Elections & Voting division of the Maine Secretary of State
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Maine", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Maine: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Maine". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
 Elections and referendums in Maine | |||||
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