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Deutsch2020 United States Senate election in Wyoming
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  Lummis: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ben-David: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Wyoming was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wyoming, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Cynthia Lummis defeated Democrat Merav Ben-David by more than 46 percentage points, becoming the first female U.S. Senator from Wyoming[1] and succeeding fellow Republican Mike Enzi, who did not run for reelection. This was the first open Senate seat since 1996, when Enzi was first elected.[2] The Democratic and Republican party primary elections were held on August 18, 2020.[3] This was the first time since 1996 that Democrats won any county for this seat. Enzi died aged 77 on July 26, 2021, from injuries in a bicycle accident, less than seven months after his retirement from the Senate.[4][5]
Cynthia Lummis won the election with 72.85% of the popular vote, winning 2.91% more than President Donald Trump had won in the concurrent presidential election in the state.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Cynthia Lummis, former U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district and former Treasurer of Wyoming[6][7]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- R. Mark Armstrong, geologist[7][8]
- Devon Cade, businessman[9]
- John Holtz, attorney and U.S. Air Force veteran[10]
- Michael Kemler[7]
- Bryan Miller, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[7]
- Donna Rice, estate lawyer[11]
- Star Roselli, conspiracy theorist[12]
- Robert Short, Converse County commissioner and businessman[13]
- Joshua Wheeler, Wyoming Army National Guard veteran[14]
Withdrawn
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Liz Cheney, incumbent U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district, Chair of House Republican Conference, and daughter of the 46th Vice President Dick Cheney (running for re-election)[18]
- Mike Enzi, incumbent U.S. senator[19] (endorsed Cynthia Lummis)[20]
- Foster Friess, businessman and former governor candidate[21]
- Robert Grady, policy adviser to former president George H. W. Bush[22]
- Matt Mead, former governor of Wyoming[23]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of President of the United States Donald Trump[24]
Endorsements
[edit]Cynthia Lummis
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator (WY)[20]
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. senator (LA)[20]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator (TX) and candidate for President in 2016[25]
- Mike Enzi, U.S. senator (WY)[20]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator (UT)[20]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (KY) and candidate for President in 2016[26]
U. S. Representatives
- Michele Bachmann, former U.S. representative (MN) and 2012 presidential candidate[20]
- Jason Chaffetz, former U.S. representative (UT)[20]
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. representative (R-NC) and White House Chief of Staff[20]
Organizations
- Citizens United[20]
- Club for Growth[27]
- Concerned Women for America[20]
- Gun Owners of America[20]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[20]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[20]
- Students for Trump[20]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[20]
Individuals
- Foster Friess, businessman and 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial election candidate[20]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Mark Armstrong | Jillian Ballow | Liz Cheney | Foster Friess | Cynthia Lummis | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheney announces she will not run | ||||||||||||
| The Tarrance Group (R)[28][1][A] | June 22–24, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | – | 56% | – | 34% | – | |||
Results
[edit]
Lummis
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Short
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Cynthia Lummis | 63,511 | 59.67% | |
| Republican | Robert Short | 13,473 | 12.66% | |
| Republican | Bryan Miller | 10,946 | 10.28% | |
| Republican | Donna Rice | 5,881 | 5.53% | |
| Republican | R. Mark Armstrong | 3,904 | 3.67% | |
| Republican | Joshua Wheeler | 3,763 | 3.53% | |
| Republican | John Holtz | 1,820 | 1.71% | |
| Republican | Devon Cade | 1,027 | 0.96% | |
| Republican | Michael Kemler | 985 | 0.93% | |
| Republican | Star Roselli | 627 | 0.59% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 501 | 0.47% | |
| Total votes | 106,438 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Merav Ben-David, Chair of the Department of Zoology and Physiology at the University of Wyoming and wildlife ecologist[7][31][32]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Kenneth R. Casner, Democratic candidate for the 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial election and Democratic nominee for District 47 of the Wyoming House of Representatives in 2016[7]
- James DeBrine, progressive activist[7]
- Yana Ludwig, democratic socialist activist and community organizer[7][33]
- Nathan Wendt, think tank executive, management consultant, businessman, entrepreneur[7]
- Rex Wilde, veteran, service technician, Democratic candidate for the 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial election and Democratic candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Wyoming[7]
Withdrawn
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Merav Ben-David
Local officials
- Gary Trauner, member of the Teton County School District Number 1 Board of Trustees (2006–2008) and businessman[32]
Individuals
- Jason Shogren, Department Chair in the Department of Economics at the University of Wyoming[35]
Organizations
Nathan Wendt
U.S. senators
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. senator from Illinois (2017–present), U.S. Representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district (2013–2017), Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs (2009–2011), Director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs (2006–2009)[36]
U.S. Ambassadors
- Richard Newton Holwill, American Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Ecuador (1988–1989)[36]
Local officials
- Pete Muldoon, Mayor of Jackson, Wyoming[37]
Yana Ludwig
Organizations
- Democratic Socialists of America - Southeast Wyoming chapter[38]
- Our Revolution - Casper chapter[38]
Results
[edit]
Ben-David
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Merav Ben-David | 9,584 | 40.28% | |
| Democratic | Yana Ludwig | 4,931 | 20.73% | |
| Democratic | Nathan Wendt | 4,212 | 17.70% | |
| Democratic | Kenneth Casner | 2,139 | 8.99% | |
| Democratic | Rex Wilde | 1,888 | 7.93% | |
| Democratic | James DeBrine | 865 | 3.64% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 173 | 0.73% | |
| Total votes | 23,792 | 100.00% | ||
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General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[40] | Safe R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[41] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[43] | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[44] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[45] | Safe R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[46] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[47] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[48] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
[edit]Cynthia Lummis (R)
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[49]
U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator (WY)[20]
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. senator (LA)[20]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator (TX) and candidate for President in 2016[25]
- Mike Enzi, U.S. senator (WY)[20]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator (UT)[20]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (KY) and candidate for President in 2016[26]
U.S. Representatives
- Michele Bachmann, former U.S. representative (MN) and 2012 presidential candidate[20]
- Jason Chaffetz, former U.S. representative (UT)[20]
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. representative (NC) and White House Chief of Staff[20]
Organizations
- Citizens United[50]
- Club for Growth[27]
- Concerned Women for America[20]
- Gun Owners of America[50]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[51][50]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[20]
- Students for Trump[50]
- Susan B. Anthony List[50]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[50]
Individuals
- Foster Friess, businessman and 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial election candidate[50]
Merav Ben-David (D)
U.S. vice presidents
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), United States Senator from Delaware (1973–2009), Democratic nominee for the 2020 United States presidential election[52]
U.S. senators
- Ed Markey, U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Massachusetts's 5th congressional district (2013), Massachusetts's 7th congressional district (1976–2013)[53]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[53]
Local officials
- Gary Trauner, member of the Teton County School District Number 1 Board of Trustees (2006–2008) and businessman[54]
Organizations
- Center for Biological Diversity[55]
- Friends of the Earth[56]
- Retake the Senate 2020[35]
- Sierra Club[57]
- We the People[35]
- Women to Win[35]
- Wyoming Democratic Party[58]
Individuals
- Jason Shogren, Department Chair in the Department of Economics at the University of Wyoming and Nobel laureate[35]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Cynthia Lummis (R) | Merav Ben-David (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Wyoming[59] | October 8–28, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 56% | 26% | – |
Results
[edit]Lummis outperformed fellow Republican Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by 2.9%, or 4,541 votes. She also won Albany County by 1%, or 182 raw votes, while Trump lost it by 2.7%, or 513 votes. She performed significantly better in the Democratic stronghold of Teton County, receiving 37.3% of the total vote, compared to Trump's 29.6%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Cynthia Lummis | 198,100 | 72.85% | +0.66% | |
| Democratic | Merav Ben-David | 72,766 | 26.76% | +9.31% | |
| Write-in | 1,071 | 0.39% | +0.11% | ||
| Total votes | 271,937 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
Voter samples and additional candidates
References
[edit]- ^ "List of United States Senators from Wyoming". Ballotpedia.
- ^ "Enzi announces plan to retire at the end of his term - News Releases - U.S. Senator Mike Enzi". Archived from the original on November 24, 2020. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
- ^ "Wyoming 2020 Election Calendar". Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved June 27, 2020.
- ^ "Former senator Mike Enzi dies after being injured in bike accident". The Washington Post. July 27, 2021. Archived from the original on July 27, 2021. Retrieved July 27, 2021.
- ^ "Ex-US Sen. Mike Enzi of Wyoming dies after bicycle accident". Associated Press. July 27, 2021. Archived from the original on July 27, 2021. Retrieved August 1, 2021.
- ^ Cepeda, Dan (July 11, 2019). "Former Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis announces run for Enzi's seat". Oil City News. Retrieved July 11, 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Wyoming 2020 Senate Candidate List" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. May 29, 2020. Retrieved June 1, 2020.
- ^ "Geologist to seek Wyoming US Senate seat". Times Union. August 23, 2019. Retrieved August 23, 2019.
- ^ "Devon Cade, Republican". Wyoming Tribune Eagle. July 23, 2020. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
- ^ Funk, Joel (June 7, 2020). "Laramie Republican seeks U.S. Senate seat; Democrats adjust campaigns, policies amid pandemic". Laramie Boomerang. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
- ^ Hirst, Greg (August 10, 2020). "CASPER'S DONNA RICE RUNNING TO BRING MORE STATESMAN-SHIP, FEWER SPECIAL INTERESTS TO U.S. SENATE". Oil City News. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
- ^ Reynolds, Nick (July 22, 2020). "Wyoming Republican US Senate candidates debate for first time". Casper Star Tribune. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
- ^ Hughes, Morgan (February 17, 2020). "Converse County commissioner, businessman Robert Short announces run for US Senate". Casper Star Tribune. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
- ^ LaChance, Brendan (October 17, 2019). "CASPER VETERAN WANTS TO SERVE WYOMING IN THE U.S. SENATE". Oil City News. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
- ^ "Wyoming Senate Race 2020". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ^ "WYOMING". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
- ^ "Rolland Holthus". Ballotpedia. Retrieved May 30, 2020.
- ^ "Rep. Liz Cheney says she won't seek open Senate seat, will seek reelection in House". Washington Post. Retrieved January 16, 2020.
- ^ [email protected], Nick Reynolds 307-266-0634. "After 22 years in office, Sen. Mike Enzi says he will retire in 2020". Casper Star-Tribune Online. Retrieved May 4, 2019.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y "Endorsements". Lummis for US Senate 2020.
- ^ Reynolds, Nick (March 2, 2020). "Foster Friess says he will not run for Enzi's U.S. Senate seat". Casper Star-Tribune.
- ^ Reynolds, Nick (June 28, 2019). "Former White House aide exploring bid for Enzi's seat". Casper Star-Tribune. Retrieved May 4, 2019.
- ^ Gruver, Mead (December 19, 2019). "Ex Wyoming governor says no to Senate run, Cheney is a maybe". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
- ^ "Ivanka's political future comes into sharper focus". Politico. January 15, 2021. Retrieved January 16, 2021.
- ^ a b "Cruz endorses Lummis in Wyoming's U.S. Senate race". Wyoming Tribune Eagle. January 24, 2020. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ a b Everett, Burgess; Zanona, Melanie (September 22, 2019). "Bad blood: Rand Paul moves to thwart a Liz Cheney Senate run". Politico. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ a b "Cynthia Lummis (WY-SEN)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
- ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
- ^ Lake, Eli (June 30, 2019). "Republican Hawks Need Liz Cheney in the Senate". Bloomberg. Retrieved July 1, 2019.
- ^ a b "Statewide Candidates Official Summary Wyoming Primary Electionmary.xlsx" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
- ^ Exchange, Tom Coulter Wyoming Tribune Eagle Via Wyoming News (January 20, 2020). "UW professor announces run as Democrat for U.S. Senate seat". Laramie Boomerang. Retrieved January 20, 2020.
- ^ a b TOI Staff; Agencies (August 19, 2020). "Israel-born ecology professor wins Wyoming Democratic Senate primary". The Times of Israel. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
- ^ Reynolds, Nick (June 12, 2019). "Laramie Democrat becomes first candidate to announce run to succeed Sen. Mike Enzi". Casper Star-Tribune. Retrieved June 13, 2019.
- ^ Reynolds, Nick (September 4, 2019). "Wyo Dems resolve to not support out-of-state candidates in in-state elections". Casper Star Tribune. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Merav Ben-David for U.S. Senate". www.bendavid2020.com. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
- ^ a b "Endorsements | Nathan Wendt for Wyoming Senate Race | United States". Wendt for Wyoming.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Muldoon, Newcomb endorse Teton County's Democratic U.S. Senate candidate". Jackson Hole News & Guide. June 4, 2020. Retrieved June 8, 2020.
- ^ a b "Endorsements". Yana Ludwig for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on April 6, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- ^ "Statewide Candidates Unofficial Summary" (PDF). sos.wyo.gov. Retrieved August 22, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "President Trump endorses Cynthia Lummis for US Senate". AP News. August 14, 2020. Retrieved September 16, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g "Endorsements". Cynthia Lummis.
- ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Wyoming". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "Historic lineup, stark contrasts: Wyo's congressional races". October 28, 2020.
- ^ a b "Ben-David picks up endorsements from green groups, national politicians". Wyoming Tribune Eagle. October 16, 2020.
- ^ "Israel-born ecology professor wins Wyoming Democratic Senate primary". www.timesofisrael.com.
- ^ "2020 Endorsements".
- ^ "Candidate Endorsements • Friends of the Earth Action". Friends of the Earth Action. August 25, 2017.
- ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
- ^ "Wyoming Democratic Party". m.facebook.com.
- ^ University of Wyoming
- ^ "Statewide Candidates Official Summary Wyoming General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Wyoming", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Wyoming: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Wyoming". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Wyoming at Ballotpedia
Official campaign websites