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Deutsch2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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    Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in New Hampshire |
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The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term, defeating former state senator Molly Kelly. Sununu was the first incumbent Republican to win reelection as governor since Steve Merrill was reelected in 1994.
Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
Background
[edit]New Hampshire is one of only two states, along with Vermont, where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.[1]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Chris Sununu, incumbent governor[2]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Sununu | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetPoint/GQR[3] | March 8–15, 2018 | 326 | ± 5.4% | 77% | 9% | 14% |
Results
[edit]
Sununu—≥90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 91,025 | 98.3 | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 577 | 0.6 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 160 | 0.2 | |
| Libertarian | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 90 | 0.0 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day (write-in) | 39 | 0.0 | |
| Scattering | 692 | 0.7 | ||
| Total votes | 92,583 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Molly Kelly, former state senator[5]
- Steve Marchand, former mayor of Portsmouth and candidate for governor in 2016[6]
Declined
[edit]- Dan Feltes, state senator[7]
- Chris Pappas, Executive Councilor (running for NH-01)[8][9]
- Colin Van Ostern, former executive councilor and nominee for governor in 2016 (running for Secretary of State)[10]
- Andru Volinsky, Executive Councilor[11]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Connolly | Molly Kelly | Steve Marchand | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[12] | April 26–30, 2018 | 401 | – | – | 21% | 19% | – | 58% |
| TargetPoint/GQR[3] | March 8–15, 2018 | 346 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 17% | 11% | 4% | 58% |
Results
[edit]
Kelly—70–80%
Kelly—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Molly Kelly | 80,598 | 65.5 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand | 41,612 | 33.8 | |
| Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent) | 563 | 0.5 | |
| Libertarian | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 17 | 0.0 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
| Scattering | 167 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 122,965 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Aaron Day, former chair of the Free State Project[13] and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[14]
- Jilletta Jarvis, former secretary of the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire and independent candidate for governor in 2016[15][16]
Results
[edit]
Jarvis—60–70%
Jarvis—50–60%
Jarvis—40–50%
Day—40–50%
Day—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 576 | 51.9 | |
| Libertarian | Aaron Day | 487 | 43.9 | |
| Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent) | 21 | 1.9 | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 9 | 0.8 | |
| Democratic | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 6 | 0.5 | |
| Scattering | 11 | 1.0 | ||
| Total votes | 1,110 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Lean R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[18] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[19] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[20] | Lean R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[22] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[23] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[24][a] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[25] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[26] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Endorsements
[edit]Molly Kelly (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State[27]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[28]
U.S. senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. senator (D-NJ)[29]
- Maggie Hassan, U.S. senator (D-NH) and former governor of New Hampshire[30]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. senator (D-NH) and former governor of New Hampshire[31]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (D-MA)[32]
U.S. representatives
- Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. representative (D-NH-2)[33]
Local and state politicians
- Peter Burling, former state senator[34]
- Joyce Craig, Mayor of Manchester[35]
- Lou D'Allesandro, state senator[34]
- Betsi DeVries, former state senator[34]
- Dan Feltes, state senator[34]
- Joe Foster, former attorney general of New Hampshire[36]
- Peggy Gilmour, former state senator[34]
- Martha Hennessey, state senator[37]
- Beverly Hollingworth, former Executive Councilor of New Hampshire and former state senator[34]
- Jay Kahn, state senator[34]
- Sylvia Larsen, former president of the New Hampshire Senate[34]
- Mandy Merrill, former state senator[34]
- Terie Norelli, former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[36]
- Deborah Reynolds, former state senator[34]
- Steve Shurtleff, New Hampshire House of Representatives Democratic Minority Leader[36]
- Donna Soucy, State Senate Minority Leader[38]
- Rick Trombly, executive director of NEA-New Hampshire and former state senator[34]
- David Watters, state senator[34]
- Katie Wheeler, former state senator[34]
- Jeff Woodburn, New Hampshire Senate Minority Leader[36]
Individuals
- Misha Collins, actor and former White House intern[39]
- Kathy Sullivan, former chairperson of the New Hampshire Democratic Party[36]
Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers-New Hampshire[40]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 633[41]
- National Education Association – New Hampshire Affiliate[42]
- New Hampshire AFL-CIO[43]
- State Employees' Association of New Hampshire/Service Employees International Union Local 1984[44]
Organizations
Chris Sununu (R)
Individuals
- Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey[48]
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States[49]
Organizations
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 104[50]
- National Federation of Independent Business[51]
- New Hampshire Police Association[52]
- New Hampshire Troopers Association[53]
- Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire[54]
Newspapers
Polling
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Sununu (R) | Molly Kelly (D) | Jilletta Jarvis (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[59] | November 1–4, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 6% |
| Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party)[60] | October 27–29, 2018 | 901 | – | 47% | 46% | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[61] | October 27–29, 2018 | 1,139 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 43% | 1% | – | 5% |
| University of New Hampshire[62] | October 10–18, 2018 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | 4% | – | 7% |
| Saint Anselm College[63] | October 10–15, 2018 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
| Emerson College[64] | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 35% | 1% | – | 14% |
| American Research Group[65] | September 21–26, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 0% | 7% |
| University of New Hampshire[66] | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 32% | – | 5% | 16% |
| Suffolk University[67] | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 27% | 4% | – | 21% |
| University of New Hampshire[68] | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 51% | 24% | 2% | 4% | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
with Steve Marchand
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Sununu (R) | Steve Marchand (D) | Jilletta Jarvis (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[66] | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 33% | – | 4% | 15% |
| Suffolk University[69] | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 25% | 4% | – | 21% |
| University of New Hampshire[68] | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 20% |
| University of New Hampshire[70] | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 28% | – | – | 30% |
with Chris Sununu and generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Sununu (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Praecones Analytica[71] | August 13–15, 2018 | 626 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
with generic Republican and Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetPoint/GQR[3] | March 8–15, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | 4% | 14% |
with Mark Connolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Sununu (R) | Mark Connolly (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[70] | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 29% | – | 30% |
with Sununu and Van Ostern
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Sununu (R) | Colin Van Ostern (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[70] | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 302,764 | 52.78% | +3.94% | |
| Democratic | Molly Kelly | 262,359 | 45.74% | −0.83% | |
| Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 8,197 | 1.43% | −2.88% | |
| Write-in | 282 | 0.05% | -0.23% | ||
| Total votes | 573,602 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
[edit]| 2018 Gubernatorial election results in New Hampshire (by county) [73] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Molly Kelly Democratic | Chris Sununu Republican | Other votes | Margin | Total votes | ||||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | |
| Belknap | 9,690 | 36.00% | 16,856 | 62.62% | 374 | 1.39% | 7,166 | 26.62% | 26,920 |
| Carroll | 10,432 | 43.46% | 13,308 | 55.44% | 265 | 1.10% | 2,876 | 11.98% | 24,005 |
| Cheshire | 18,158 | 55.80% | 13,875 | 42.64% | 509 | 1.56% | -4,283 | -13.16% | 32,542 |
| Coös | 4,988 | 42.96% | 6,397 | 55.10% | 225 | 1.94% | 1,409 | 12.14% | 11,610 |
| Grafton | 22,932 | 56.89% | 16,734 | 41.52% | 642 | 1.59% | -6,198 | -15.37% | 40,308 |
| Hillsborough | 72,033 | 44.34% | 87,846 | 54.07% | 2,589 | 1.59% | 15,813 | 9.73% | 162,468 |
| Merrimack | 30,540 | 46.97% | 33,513 | 51.54% | 972 | 1.49% | 2,973 | 4.57% | 65,025 |
| Rockingham | 59,269 | 42.29% | 79,195 | 56.50% | 1,699 | 1.21% | 19,926 | 14.21% | 140,163 |
| Strafford | 26,593 | 49.89% | 25,782 | 48.37% | 931 | 1.75% | -811 | -1.52% | 53,306 |
| Sullivan | 7,724 | 44.76% | 9,258 | 53.65% | 273 | 1.58% | 1,534 | 8.89% | 17,255 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
[edit]Sununu won both congressional districts, which simultaneously elected Democrats.[74]
| District | Kelly | Sununu | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 44.01% | 54.64% | Chris Pappas |
| 2nd | 47.58% | 50.91% | Annie Kuster |
References
[edit]- ^ Ramer, Holly (November 9, 2016). "Sununu chosen as N.H. governor". Concord Monitor. Associated Press. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
- ^ Bookman, Todd (October 4, 2017). "To No One's Surprise, Sununu Confirms He's Running for Re-Election". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
- ^ a b c TargetPoint/GQR
- ^ a b c "Results". Archived from the original on January 28, 2020. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ DiStaso, John (April 5, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Molly Kelly to announce gubernatorial decision next week". WMUR. Retrieved April 6, 2018.
- ^ Tuohy, Dan (April 3, 2017). "Marchand says he's running for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on April 6, 2017. Retrieved April 7, 2017.
- ^ Sexton, Adam (March 11, 2018). "Feltes rules out run for governor". WMUR. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
- ^ DiStaso, John (July 20, 2017). "Pappas heads north, says it's about the ice cream". WMUR. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
- ^ DiStaso, John (November 9, 2017). "Democrat Pappas announces candidacy for 1st District US House seat". WMUR-TV. Retrieved November 9, 2017.
- ^ LANDRIGAN, KEVIN (March 13, 2018). "Van Ostern to challenge Gardner for Secretary of State position". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on July 23, 2018. Retrieved July 22, 2018.
- ^ Solomon, David (September 27, 2017). "Executive Councilor Volinsky won't run for governor in 2018". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on September 27, 2017. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Free State Project Early Movers: FSP Chairman Aaron Day". February 12, 2016. Retrieved September 12, 2018.
- ^ DiStaso, John (June 7, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Libertarian Party of NH may have primary for governor". Retrieved September 12, 2018.
- ^ DiStaso, John (April 3, 2017). "Updated NH Primary Source". WMUR. Retrieved April 22, 2017.
- ^ Freeman, Ian (March 25, 2017). "Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis Announces Campaign for NH Governor in 2018!". Free Keene. Retrieved April 22, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
- ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. August 2022.
- ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
- ^ Hillary Clinton. ".@NHMollyKelly is an experienced leader and tireless fighter running for New Hampshire governor. She'll fight to improve economic security for working families and expand opportunity for all". Twitter.
- ^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
- ^ Molly Kelly. "Thanks to @CoryBooker for joining me at a @NHYoungDems rally at UNH. Too many young people are leaving NH because they don't see opportunities – that's got to change. I'll listen to young people and enact friendly public policies that encourage them to stay in our great state". Twitter.
- ^ Rogers, Josh (June 5, 2018). "Hassan Endorses Kelly For Governor". nhpr.org/. New Hampshire Public Radio.
- ^ DiStaso, John (May 2, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Shaheen endorses Molly Kelly for governor". WMUR.
- ^ Elizabeth Warren. "Nobody should have to live 1 family emergency away from financial disaster. Help Molly Kelly fight back in NH". Twitter.
- ^ Staff, Sentinel (April 20, 2018). "Political notebook: Kuster endorses Kelly for governor". SentinelSource.com.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Open Letter in Support of Molly Kelly for Governor" (PDF). Retrieved April 11, 2023.
- ^ "Mayor Joyce Craig Endorses Molly Kelly For NH Governor". NH LABOR NEWS. June 14, 2018.
- ^ a b c d e DiStaso, John (April 12, 2018). "NH Primary Source first: Top Democratic state lawmakers endorse Kelly for governor". WMUR.
- ^ DiStaso, John (July 26, 2018). "NH Primary Source: State Sen. Hennessy shifts support from Marchand to Kelly". WMUR.
- ^ "Senator Donna Soucy Announces Support For Molly Kelly For NH Governor". NH LABOR NEWS. September 6, 2018.
- ^ Misha Collins [@mishacollins] (April 13, 2018). "Yes! Molly is on #MishasList too!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Sen. Molly Kelly's Commitment To Public Education Earns Support From AFT-NH". NH LABOR NEWS. August 7, 2018.
- ^ Padellaro, Jeffrey (May 10, 2018). "Teamsters back Kelly in first union endorsement of governor's race". Teamsters Local 633.
- ^ Tuttle, Megan (June 15, 2018). "NEA-NH Announces Recommendation of Molly Kelly for Governor". NEA-NH.
- ^ "New Hampshire AFL-CIO Candidate Endorsements | New Hampshire AFL-CIO". nhaflcio.org. New Hampshire AFL-CIO. September 22, 2018.
- ^ Gulla, Richard (September 26, 2018). "Press release: Molly Kelly for Governor". www.seiu1984.org. SEA/SEIU Local 1984 Board of Directors. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
- ^ Schriock, Stephanie (April 13, 2018). "EMILY's List Endorses Molly Kelly for Governor of New Hampshire". www.emilyslist.org.
- ^ DiStaso, John (September 25, 2018). "End Citizens United PAC endorses Molly Kelly for governor". WMUR.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates – Fight For Reform". Fight For Reform.
- ^ "Chris Christie visits NH, blasts Penn. officials for not joining Trump after synagogue attack". Associated Press. November 1, 2018.
- ^ Chooljian, Lauren (March 23, 2018). "Pence of Sununu: 'He's a Man Like President Trump ... 'a Man of Action'". New Hampshire Public Radio.
- ^ Ropeik, Annie (October 16, 2018). "Electrical Workers Union Endorses Sununu For Governor". New Hampshire Public Radio.
- ^ Chris Sununu. "It is an honor to receive the endorsement of @NFIB — the nation's leading small business association!". Twitter.
- ^ DiStaso, John (June 22, 2018). "Sununu receives earliest ever NH Police Association endorsement". wmur.com.
- ^ DiStaso, John (August 6, 2018). "NH Troopers Association endorses Sununu for reelection". wmur.com.
- ^ "Political notebook: State firefighters union throws weight behind Sununu". The Keene Sentinel. September 27, 2018.
- ^ a b c "Editorial endorsement: Gov. Sununu deserves a second term". seacoastonline.com. October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
- ^ "Editorial endorsement: Gov. Sununu deserves a second term". Foster's Daily Democrat. October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
- ^ "Telegraph endorses Sununu". Nashua Telegraph. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
- ^ "Sununu for Governor: Earning a second term". Union Leader. October 12, 2018. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ University of New Hampshire
- ^ Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party)
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ University of New Hampshire
- ^ Saint Anselm College
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ American Research Group
- ^ a b University of New Hampshire
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b University of New Hampshire
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b c University of New Hampshire
- ^ Praecones Analytica
- ^ "2018 General Election Information and Results". sos.nh.gov. Archived from the original on July 31, 2020.
- ^ "2018 General Election Results".
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites
