2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2026 →
Turnout52.38% Decrease
 
Nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Howie Morales Ant Thornton
Popular vote 370,168 324,701
Percentage 51.97% 45.59%
Lujan Grisham:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Ronchetti:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data
Governor before election

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

Elected Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

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The 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New Mexico. The election coincided with various other federal and state elections. Primary elections were held on June 7.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham won a second term by a margin of 6.38%. She was first elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote. Her opponent was Republican Mark Ronchetti, who was also his party's nominee in New Mexico's 2020 U.S. Senate election.

Despite losing, Ronchetti managed to carry a congressional district that elected Democrat Gabe Vasquez in the concurrent U.S. House elections. This was the first gubernatorial election in New Mexico since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1978 that it was a Democrat.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Michelle Lujan Grisham

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Gubernatorial Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham (incumbent) 125,238 100.0%
Total votes 125,238 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Howie Morales (incumbent) 117,293 100.0%
Total votes 117,293 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
Withdrew
[edit]
Declined
[edit]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Jay
Block 		Rebecca
Dow 		Mark
Ronchetti 		Greg
Zanetti 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[15] April 29 – May 19, 2022 May 23, 2022 10.0% 13.0% 44.5% 9.5% 23.0% Ronchetti +31.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Block 		Rebecca
Dow 		Mark
Ronchetti 		Greg
Zanetti 		Other Undecided
Research & Polling Inc.[16] May 15–19, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 8% 17% 45% 9% 1%[c] 21%
SurveyUSA[17] April 29 – May 7, 2022 505 (LV) ± 6.4% 12% 9% 44% 10% 2%[d] 23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[18][A] January 31 – February 1, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 9% 60% 7% 3% 19%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Dow
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Gubernatorial Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Ronchetti 68,658 58.41%
Republican Rebecca Dow 18,185 15.47%
Republican Gregory Zanetti 16,394 13.95%
Republican Jay Block 12,469 10.61%
Republican Ethel Maharg 1,845 1.57%
Total votes 117,551 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]
  • Ant Thornton, aerospace engineer[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Peggy Muller-Aragon, member of the Albuquerque Public Schools Board of Education[4]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Thornton
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Muller-Aragon
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ant Thornton 64,386 59.71%
Republican Peggy Muller-Aragon 43,438 40.29%
Total votes 107,824 100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
Withdrew
[edit]

Endorsements

Ginger G. Grider
Individuals

Results

[edit]
Gubernatorial Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Karen Bedonie 980 86.12%
Libertarian Ginger G. Grider (write-in) 158 13.88%
Total votes 1,138 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

[edit]

Travis Sanchez won the Libertarian primary unopposed, but withdrew to become the Libertarian nominee for New Mexico State Auditor.[21] Sanchez was replaced by Efren Gallardo Jr.

Candidates

[edit]
Declared
[edit]
  • Efren Gallardo Jr.[22]
Withdrew
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Lieutenant gubernatorial Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Travis Sanchez 1,175 100.0%
Total votes 1,175 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[23] Lean D June 8, 2022
Inside Elections[24] Tilt D November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] Lean D January 26, 2022
Politico[26] Lean D April 1, 2022
RCP[27] Tossup June 20, 2022
Fox News[28] Tossup August 22, 2022
538[29] Likely D July 31, 2022
Elections Daily[30] Lean D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials[35]

Labor unions

Organizations

Mark Ronchetti (R)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Sheriffs

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Mark
Ronchetti (R) 		Karen
Bedonie (L) 		Other
[e] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[56] October 6–21, 2022 October 21, 2022 47.0% 43.5% – 9.5% Lujan Grisham +3.5
FiveThirtyEight[57] June 14 – October 24, 2022 October 24, 2022 48.7% 41.1% 4.9% 5.3% Lujan Grisham +7.6
Average 47.9% 42.3% – 7.4% Lujan Grisham +5.6

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Mark
Ronchetti (R) 		Karen
Bedonie (L) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[58] October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 2% <1%[f] 3%
50% 48% 2% <1%[g] –
Research & Polling Inc.[59][h] October 20–27, 2022 1,254 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 42% 3% – 5%
SurveyUSA[60] October 21–26, 2022 650 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 39% 5% – 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[61] October 19–21, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% 4% – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[62] October 6–7, 2022 806 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 40% 7% – 6%
SurveyUSA[63] October 1–6, 2022 570 (LV) ± 5.8% 53% 37% 3% – 7%
Cygnal (R)[64][B] September 27–29, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 44% 5% – 5%
SurveyUSA[65] September 8–12, 2022 558 (LV) ± 5.7% 48% 36% 5% – 11%
Emerson College[66] September 8–11, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 43% – 3%[i] 5%
Research & Polling Inc.[67][h] August 19–25, 2022 518 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 5% – 8%
GQR Research (D)[68][C] June 11–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 44% 5% – 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[69] June 13–14, 2022 642 (V) ± 3.9% 45% 42% 9% – 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[70][A] June 11–14, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% – – 9%
SurveyUSA[71] April 29 – May 7, 2022 1,389 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 43% – – 11%
Cygnal (R)[72][D] January 3–4, 2022 531 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 42% – – 16%
Hypothetical polling

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Jay Block

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Jay
Block (R) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71] April 29 – May 7, 2022 1,389 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 37% 16%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Rebecca Dow

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Rebecca
Dow (R) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71] April 29 – May 7, 2022 1,389 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 36% 16%
Cygnal (R)[72][D] January 3–4, 2022 531 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 36% 20%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Ethel Maharg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Ethel
Maharg (R) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71] April 29 – May 7, 2022 1,389 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 32% 19%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Gregory Zanetti

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Gregory
Zanetti (R) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71] April 29 – May 7, 2022 1,389 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 36% 16%
Cygnal (R)[72][D] January 3–4, 2022 531 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 38% 21%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[73] July 6–8, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 7%

Debates

[edit]
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial general election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Michelle Lujan Grisham Mark Ronchetti Karen Bedonie
1 Oct. 13, 2022 KOAT-TV Doug Fernandez [74] P P N

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election[75]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
370,168 51.97% −5.23%
Republican
324,701 45.59% +2.79%
Libertarian
  • Karen Bedonie
  • Efren Gallardo, Jr.
 17,387 2.44% N/A
Total votes 712,256 100.0%
Turnout 714,797 52.38%
Registered electors 1,364,559
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]
By county
[76] Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democrat 		Mark V Ronchetti
Republican 		Karen E. Bedonie
Libertarian 		Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes
Bernalillo 141,177 57.55% 99,639 40.62% 4484 1.83% 245,300
Catron 471 23.29% 1,493 73.84% 58 2.87% 2,022
Chaves 4,063 24.89% 11,884 72.79% 379 2.32% 16,326
Cibola 3,418 49.75% 3,230 47.02% 222 3.23% 6,870
Colfax 2,053 41.82% 2,719 55.39% 137 2.79% 4,909
Curry 2,516 24.55% 7,092 69.20% 640 6.25% 10,248
De Baca 167 22.03% 566 74.67% 25 3.30% 758
Doña Ana 32,147 55.69% 23,213 40.21% 2364 4.10% 57,724
Eddy 3,376 20.20% 12,996 77.75% 344 2.06% 16,716
Grant 6,185 52.88% 5,217 44.60% 294 2.51% 11,696
Guadalupe 915 52.56% 784 45.03% 42 2.41% 1,741
Harding 129 30.79% 280 66.83% 10 2.39% 419
Hidalgo 645 39.72% 914 56.28% 65 4.00% 1,624
Lea 2,104 15.02% 11,542 82.40% 362 2.58% 14,008
Lincoln 2,334 27.94% 5,778 69.16% 243 2.91% 8,355
Los Alamos 6,192 61.02% 3,751 36.96% 205 2.02% 10,148
Luna 2,445 41.52% 3,250 55.19% 194 3.29% 5,889
McKinley 12,910 66.27% 5,799 29.77% 772 3.96% 19,481
Mora 1,584 64.47% 832 33.86% 41 1.67% 2,457
Otero 5,852 33.17% 11,182 63.38% 608 3.45% 17,642
Quay 803 26.53% 2,104 69.51% 120 3.96% 3,027
Rio Arriba 8,037 62.01% 4,729 36.49% 195 1.50% 12,961
Roosevelt 1,087 23.32% 3,177 68.15% 398 8.54% 4,662
San Juan 12,849 32.08% 25,574 63.85% 1631 4.07% 40,054
San Miguel 6,531 68.98% 2,785 29.41% 152 1.61% 9,468
Sandoval 30,789 50.28% 29,337 47.91% 1109 1.81% 61,235
Santa Fe 52,447 75.35% 16,287 23.40% 868 1.25% 69,602
Sierra 1,780 36.19% 3,001 61.01% 138 2.81% 4,919
Socorro 2,950 48.05% 2,988 48.66% 202 3.29% 6,140
Taos 10,188 76.33% 2,964 22.21% 196 1.47% 13,348
Torrance 1,588 28.64% 3,712 66.96% 244 4.40% 5,544
Union 328 21.87% 1,101 73.40% 71 4.73% 1,500
Valencia 10,108 39.70% 14,781 58.05% 574 2.25% 25,463

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Lujan Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts with Ronchetti winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[77]

District Lujan Grisham Ronchetti Representative
1st 53.2% 45.3% Melanie Stansbury
2nd 48.4% 48.7% Yvette Herrell (117th Congress)
Gabe Vasquez (118th Congress)
3rd 53.9% 43.7% Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Maharg with 1%
  4. ^ Maharg with 2%
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ "Someone else" with <1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with <1%
  8. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal.
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b The poll was sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Jeremy Gay, the Republican nominee for New Mexico Attorney General.
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action
  4. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Zanetti's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Upcoming Elections". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will run for re-election". KOAT. June 3, 2021.
  3. ^ a b "Candidates for Governor". emilyslist.org.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "2022 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ^ Boyd, Dan (October 27, 2021). "Ronchetti announces gubernatorial campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  6. ^ McKay, Dan (April 17, 2021). "Republican Commissioner Jay Block enters governor's race, seeks GOP nomination". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved July 4, 2021.
  7. ^ Ramirez, Chris (July 8, 2021). "Republican Jay Block wants to be New Mexico's next governor". KOB-TV. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  8. ^ "Republican lawmaker enters race for New Mexico governor". KOB-TV. Associated Press. July 7, 2021. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
  9. ^ Block, John (August 15, 2021). "Seventh Republican, pro-life leader Ethel Maharg, running for governor". Piñon Post. Archived from the original on August 15, 2021. Retrieved December 8, 2021.
  10. ^ "Military veteran runs for New Mexico governor as Republican". KRQE. Associated Press. June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  11. ^ Boetel, Ryan (August 1, 2021). "Sanchez joins GOP field for governor". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on August 11, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
  12. ^ McKay, Dan (February 1, 2022). "5 Republicans seek nomination to challenge Lujan Grisham". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Once-GOP gubernatorial candidate switches to Libertarian Party". Pinon Post. December 5, 2021. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
  14. ^ Milan Simonich (April 15, 2021). "Stumbling GOP could have been a contender". The Santa Fe New Mexican.
  15. ^ Real Clear Politics
  16. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  17. ^ SurveyUSA Archived May 10, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  18. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R) Archived February 3, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ Staff Reports. "Former Doña Ana County Commissioner Isabella Solis announces run for lieutenant governor". Las Cruces Sun-News. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
  20. ^ "There is a contested primary for the Libertarian nomination for Governor of New Mexico". Facebook.
  21. ^ a b "2022 Candidates for Office". Libertarian Party of New Mexico.
  22. ^ Coker, Jonny (September 29, 2022). "Libertarian candidate Efren Gallardo, Jr. runs for Lieutenant Governor". KRWG-TV.
  23. ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  24. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  25. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  26. ^ "New Mexico Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  27. ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  28. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  29. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  30. ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  31. ^ "Biden to travel to New Mexico days before midterm election". Associated Press. October 27, 2022.
  32. ^ "Obama video endorses incumbent New Mexico governor". October 27, 2022.
  33. ^ "Harris to campaign for Lujan Grisham, abortion rights". October 20, 2022.
  34. ^ "Gavin Newsom has quietly constructed one of the biggest digital forces in politics". Politico. October 28, 2022.
  35. ^ "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham Announces Endorsements from New Mexico Mayors".
  36. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Michelle Lujan Grisham's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  37. ^ "New Mexico - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Archived from the original on November 1, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  38. ^ "Michelle Lujan Grisham — Donate via ActBlue". secure.actblue.com. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  39. ^ "Michelle Lujan Grisham - DGA". democraticgovernors.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  40. ^ "Giffords Endorses Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". www.giffords.org. Giffords. March 30, 2022.
  41. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". October 26, 2022.
  42. ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". August 3, 2022.
  43. ^ "Trump endorses Mark Ronchetti for New Mexico governor". October 31, 2022.
  44. ^ "Support Mark Ronchetti now!".
  45. ^ "Press under tight control as Ronchetti rallies in Carlsbad with DeSantis and Rep. Herrell". www.lcsun-news.com. August 15, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  46. ^ "Pence campaigns for Ronchetti in Roswell". October 6, 2022.
  47. ^ "DeSantis to Hit Trail to Boost Trump-Backed Midterm Candidates". Bloomberg.com. August 8, 2022.
  48. ^ "Ronchetti campaigns with AZ governor - Albuquerque Journal".
  49. ^ "Trump Weighs in Regarding New Mexico Race for Governor".
  50. ^ "Youngkin traveling to five more states amid talk of possible 2024 bid". August 23, 2022.
  51. ^ a b c d Boyd, Dan (August 10, 2022). "Sheriffs back Ronchetti in new TV ad". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved August 18, 2022.
  52. ^ "Editorial: Ronchetti for governor - Albuquerque Journal". October 23, 2022.
  53. ^ "CatholicVote's 2022 Key Race Endorsements". CatholicVote.org. October 4, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  54. ^ "New Mexico Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  55. ^ "Vote Freedom First. Vote Mark Ronchetti For New Mexico Governor!". nrapvf.org. Archived from the original on September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  56. ^ Real Clear Politics
  57. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  58. ^ Emerson College
  59. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  60. ^ SurveyUSA
  61. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  62. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  63. ^ SurveyUSA
  64. ^ Cygnal (R)
  65. ^ SurveyUSA
  66. ^ Emerson College
  67. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  68. ^ GQR Research (D)
  69. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  70. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  71. ^ a b c d e SurveyUSA
  72. ^ a b c Cygnal (R)
  73. ^ Cygnal (R)
  74. ^ Youtube
  75. ^ "2022 General New Mexico - Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State.
  76. ^ "New Mexico Secretary of State". electionresults.sos.state.nm.us.
  77. ^ "Twitter".
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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