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Deutsch2022 Vermont gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 57.62%  | |||||||||||||||||||
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   Scott: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Siegel: 50–60% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Vermont |
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The 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Vermont. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Brenda Siegel.[1][2]
This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. During the 2022 season, Scott enjoyed one of the highest approval ratings of any governor in the nation, and was expected to easily win reelection. As such, he carried every municipality in the state, this time with the largest margin in a Vermont gubernatorial race since Howard Dean's landslide in 1996. Scott's 47-point victory margin was the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950, even while Democratic congressman Peter Welch won the concurrent U.S. Senate election by a 40-point margin. This was the second most lopsided election of the 2022 Gubernatorial election cycle, only behind the election in Wyoming.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Phil Scott, incumbent governor[1]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Declined
[edit]- H. Brooke Paige, historian and perennial candidate (running for multiple statewide offices)[a][4]
Results
[edit]
Scott
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 20,319 | 68.56% | |
| Republican | Stephen C. Bellows | 5,402 | 18.22% | |
| Republican | Peter Duval | 3,627 | 12.24% | |
| Write-in | 290 | 0.98% | ||
| Total votes | 29,638 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Withdrew after winning primary
[edit]Replacement nominee
[edit]- Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020 (cross-endorsement of Democratic nominee)[8][6][7]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Susan Hatch Davis | 470 | 87.36% | |
| Write-in | 68 | 12.64% | ||
| Total votes | 538 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in 2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[9][10]
Declined
[edit]- Becca Balint, President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[11] (running for U.S. House)[12]
- T. J. Donovan, former Vermont Attorney General[11]
- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont[11] (ran for U.S. House)[13]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (running for re-election)[11]
- Doug Racine, former lieutenant governor of Vermont and candidate for governor in 2002 and 2010[14][9]
Endorsements
[edit]Brenda Siegel
- Federal politicians
- Peter Welch, U.S. representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district[15]
- State politicians
- Becca Balint, president pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[15]
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont and former chair of the Democratic National Committee[15]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brenda Siegel | 56,287 | 85.92% | |
| Write-in | 9,227 | 14.08% | ||
| Total votes | 65,514 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Peter Duval, engineer and former Underhill selectman[6]
- Kevin Hoyt, candidate for governor in 2020[6]
- Bernard Peters, perennial candidate[6]
Write-ins
[edit]Due to Vermont's completely unrestricted write-in laws, many high school students across the United States were legally able to run for governor.
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Jackson Williams, high school student from Las Vegas[16]
- Landon Best, high school student from Indiana
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | August 18, 2022 |
| Politico[20] | Solid R | November 3, 2022 |
| RCP[21] | Safe R | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[22] | Solid R | August 22, 2022 |
| 538[23] | Solid R | August 26, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[24] | Safe R | November 7, 2022 |
Polling
[edit]- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Phil Scott (R) | Brenda Siegel (D/P) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 65% | 24% | 5%[c] | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire | September 29 – October 3 2022 | 865 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 31% | 9%[d] | 13% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 3–7, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 68% | 15% | 5% | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire | July 21–25, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 60% | 16% | 8%[e] | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
- Phil Scott vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Phil Scott (R) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 25% | 24% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 202,147 | 70.91% | +0.75 | |
| Democratic/Progressive | Brenda Siegel[f] | 68,248 | 23.94% | ||
| Independent | Kevin Hoyt | 6,022 | 2.06% | +0.80 | |
| Independent | Peter Duval | 4,723 | 1.62% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bernard Peters | 2,315 | 0.79% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,346 | 0.46% | +0.02 | ||
| Total votes | 284,801 | 100% | |||
| Rejected ballots | 255 | ||||
| Blank ballots | 6,899 | ||||
| Turnout | 291,955 | 57.62% | |||
| Registered electors | 506,666 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2018; Democratic candidate for Attorney General in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and 2020; Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2018 and 2020; Republican candidate for the US House in 2018; Republican candidate for Auditor of Accounts in 2018.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Hoyt (I) with 3%; Duval (I) with 1%; Peters (I) with 1%
- ^ Hoyt and Duval with 3%; Peters with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Davis and "Other" with 4%
- ^ Candidate received the nominations of both the Democratic and Progressive parties and will be listed on the ballot as "Democratic/Progressive" (candidate is primarily a Democrat).
References
[edit]- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (May 17, 2022). "Phil Scott to seek 4th term as Vermont governor". WCAX-TV. Archived from the original on May 17, 2022. Retrieved May 17, 2022.
- ^ "Brenda Siegel wins Democratic nomination for Governor | Vermont Business Magazine". vermontbiz.com. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Primary Candidate Listing". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Buckle up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape".
- ^ a b c "2022 August Primary Federal and Statewide Office Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State.
- ^ a b c d e "General Election Candidates". sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (August 25, 2022). "Three Vt. Democratic primary winners to run as fusion candidates". wcax.com. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ "General Election 2022". The Vermont Progressive Party. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
- ^ a b Cutler, Calvin (March 4, 2022). "Vt. Democrats testing the waters for Gov. Scott challenge". WCAX.com.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2022). "Vermont activist Brenda Siegel launches Democratic bid for governor". VTDigger.
- ^ a b c d Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 - Online Guide to Vermont Politics". www.politics1.com. Retrieved June 6, 2021.
- ^ "Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint to run for Congress | Vermont Business Magazine". Vermont Biz. December 13, 2021.
- ^ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
- ^ "Racine Mulls Run for Governor". The Vermont Political Observer. February 21, 2022. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
- ^ a b c "Brenda Siegel's odds of winning are long — but her message may still strike a chord". October 30, 2022.
- ^ Hall, Dave (March 28, 2022). "14-year-old Nevada boy is running for governor in Vermont (because legally, he can)". Fox 5 Vegas.
- ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "Vermont Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
- ^ "2022 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 19, 2022. Retrieved November 19, 2022.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites