2024 United States presidential election in Vermont

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Vermont
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Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
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Joe Biden
Democratic



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The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Vermont voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

As a sparsely populated rural state in northern New England, Vermont was historically a moderate/liberal "Yankee Republican" stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988: Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000.

Vermont was Biden's strongest state in 2020, with a margin of 35.4%. Today a strongly blue state and one of the most progressive states in the U.S., Vermont is expected to be easily won by Kamala Harris in 2024.[2]

Primary elections

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Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Vermont Republican presidential primary

The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary.[3]

Vermont Republican primary, March 5, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Nikki Haley 36,241 49.32% 9 9
Donald Trump 33,162 45.13% 8 8
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,020 1.39%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 949 1.29%
Write-in votes 586 0.80%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 546 0.74%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 278 0.38%
Overvotes 51 0.07%
Blank ballots 654 0.89%
Total: 73,487 100.00% 17 17


Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Vermont Democratic presidential primary

The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.

Vermont Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[5][6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 56,924 82.98% 16
Marianne Williamson 2,873 4.19%
Dean Phillips 1,942 2.83%
Other write-ins 1,260 1.84%
Mark Greenstein 779 1.14%
Rashida Tlaib (write-in) 763 1.11%
Cenk Uygur 700 1.02%
"Blank" (write-in) 556 0.81%
Jason Palmer 404 0.59%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) 322 0.47%
Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) 288 0.42%
Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) 187 0.27%
Kamala Harris (write-in) 23 0.03%
Overvotes 73 0.10%
Blank ballots 1,525 2.22%
Total: 68,599 100% 16 8 24


General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[11] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[13] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[14] Solid D June 11, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
University of New Hampshire[16] August 15–19, 2024 924 (LV) ± 3.2% 70% 29% 1%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[17] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,167 (LV) ± 2.9% 63% 31% 2% 0% – 0% 4%[b]
University of New Hampshire[16] August 15–19, 2024 924 (LV) ± 3.2% 67% 27% 3% 0% – 0% 3%[c]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A] April 13–21, 2024 272 (LV) – 56% 35% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[19] February 29 – March 3, 2024 117 (RV) – 58% 28% 14%[d]
111 (LV) 59% 28% 13%[e]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A] April 13–21, 2024 272 (LV) – 47% 42% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A] April 13–21, 2024 272 (LV) – 52% 29% 19%


Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Vermont[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
Republican
Libertarian
Green Mountain Peace and Justice
Socialism and Liberation
Socialist Workers
We the People
Write-in
Total votes

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
  3. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
  3. ^ Vakil, Caroline (March 6, 2024). "Haley defeats Trump in Vermont GOP primary". The Hill. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  4. ^ "Official Report of the Canvassing Committee – United States and Vermont Statewide Offices" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  5. ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  6. ^ "Vermont Election Night Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  13. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  14. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ a b "Harris Holds Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Many Worried About Peaceful Transfer of Power". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
  17. ^ McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Maintains Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Fears of Political Violence Widespread". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  18. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  19. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  20. ^ "General Election Candidates". VT SOS. August 13, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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