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Deutsch2024 United States presidential election in Oregon
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| Elections in Oregon |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
Harris carried Oregon by 14.2% as of November 10, 2024.
Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A blue state, although not as strongly as neighboring California and Washington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 294,744 | 91.6% | 31 | 31 | |
| Write-in votes | 27,209 | 8.5% | |||
| Total: | 321,983 | 100.0% | 31 | 31 | |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 397,702 | 87.1% | 66 | 66 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 33,603 | 7.4% | |||
| Write-in votes | 25,135 | 5.5% | |||
| Total: | 456,440 | 100.0% | 66 | 12 | 78 |
Minor Parties
[edit]Minor Parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by the Oregon Secretary of State:
| Party | Candidate |
|---|---|
| Libertarian | Chase Oliver |
| We The People | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. |
| Progressive Party | Cornel West |
| Pacific Green | Jill Stein |
| Constitution Party | Randall Terry |
The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the Secretary of State.[5]
General election
[edit]Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.[7]
In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.[8]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Safe D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[13] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe D | September 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
| NBC News[16] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[17] | Safe D | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[18] | Safe D | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A] | October 16–17, 2024 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Hoffman Research[20] | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research[20] | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group[21][B] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| John Zogby Strategies[22][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Emerson College[23] | October 31 – November 1, 2022 | 975 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Emerson College[24] | September 30 – October 1, 2022 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group[21][B] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 40% | 29% | 19% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 40% | 49% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[22][C] | April 13–21, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 1,063,629 | 54.9% |  1.44% | ||
| Republican | 818,801 | 42.2% |  1.74% | ||
| We the People |
| 28,065 | 1.4% | N/A | |
| Pacific Green | 14,477 | 0.7% | 0.50% | ||
| Libertarian | 7,342 | 0.4% | 1.35% | ||
| Progressive | 4,215 | 0.2% |  0% | ||
| Constitution | 1,550 | 0.1% | N/A | ||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 1,938,079 | 100.00% | |||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Oregon
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
- ^ "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024). "Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
- ^ Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024). "Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
- ^ "2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".
- ^ Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024). "Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024). "Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find". Northwest Progressive Institute.
- ^ a b Jaquiss, Nigel (July 30, 2024). "New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon". Willamette Week.
- ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Candidate Filing Search Results". Oregon SOS. September 22, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
