2024 United States presidential election in Colorado

2024 United States presidential election in Colorado

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout79.85% (Decrease 7.02 pp)
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,728,159 1,377,441
Percentage 54.13% 43.14%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Colorado voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Colorado has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

Notably, Colorado did not see a significant shift rightward compared to other blue states[2] (though Republicans did gain one seat in Colorado's congressional delegation, CO-08 in the North Metro). Harris won by 11%, only 2.5% down from Biden in 2020, significantly better than Hillary Clinton's margin of 4.9% in 2016, and exceeding Barack Obama's margins in both 2008 and 2012. This is the first election since 1996 that Colorado backed the loser of both the electoral vote and the overall popular vote.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Colorado Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Colorado Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 477,365 82.5% 72 72
Noncommitted Delegate 52,122 9.0%
Dean Phillips 17,936 3.1%
Marianne Williamson 16,761 2.9%
Gabriel Cornejo 4,313 0.7%
Jason Palmer 3,986 0.7%
Armando Perez-Serrato 2,591 0.5%
Frankie Lozada 2,402 0.4%
Stephen Lyons 1,481 0.3%
Total: 578,957 100% 72 72

Republican primary

[edit]

The Colorado Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Colorado Republican primary, March 5, 2024[4][5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 555,863 63.46% 24
Nikki Haley 291,615 33.29% 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 12,672 1.45%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 7,188 0.82%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 5,113 0.58%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 2,220 0.25%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 1,269 0.14%
Total: 875,940 100.00% 36 1 37


14th Amendment lawsuit

[edit]

The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning non-profit, filed a lawsuit on behalf of four Republicans and independent voters, saying that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for president because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states "no person shall ... hold any office, civil or military, under the United States ... who, having previously taken an oath .... as an officer of the United States ... shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof". A trial on this case took place during October and November 2023.[6][7] The judge found that Trump engaged in insurrection but declined to remove Trump from the primary ballot, saying there is "scant direct evidence regarding whether the Presidency is one of the positions subject to disqualification".[8][9] On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is disqualified from the Presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and ordered that Trump be removed from the 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot.[10][11][12]

Trump appealed this ruling to the Supreme Court of the United States, and arguments were heard in February.[13] The Colorado decision was stayed pending appeal, and Trump was included on the certified ballot, which began to be mailed to overseas voters on January 20.[14] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court issued a ruling unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court decision, ruling that states had no authority to remove Trump from their ballots, and this was instead a power held by Congress.[15]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The deadline for minor party candidates to qualify for the ballot was July 1, 2024, while independents could petition for ballot access until July 11.[16][17] In September, Colorado secretary of state Jena Griswold published the following candidates as certified to appear on the general election ballot:[18]

Additionally, the state published a list of certified write-in candidates, the deadline for which was on July 18:[19]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[23] Likely D November 1, 2024
CNalysis[24] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[25] Lean D August 25, 2024
The Economist[26] Safe D October 21, 2024
538[27] Solid D October 30, 2024
NBC News[28] Safe D October 6, 2024
YouGov[29] Safe D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[30] Likely D November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Keating Research[31] October 28−30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 41% 7%[b]
YouGov[32] October 18−30, 2024 754 (LV) ± 4.54% 55% 41% 4%
ActiVote[33] October 1−30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 43%
ActiVote[34] September 15 − October 19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41%
Morning Consult[35] September 9−18, 2024 512 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 42% 5%
Keating Research[36] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 42% 5%
Morning Consult[35] August 30 – September 8, 2024 498 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 40% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Global Strategy Group (D)[37][A] June 17–24, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 40% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[38][B] April 13–21, 2024 529 (LV) 49% 43% 8%
New Bridge Strategy (R)/Aspect Strategic (D)[39][C] March 15–19, 2024 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[40] February 29 – March 3, 2024 170 (LV) 48% 44% 8%
179 (RV) 48% 43% 9%
Emerson College[41] January 23–28, 2024 1,856 (RV) ± 2.2% 41% 35% 24%
Global Strategy Group (D)[37][A] January 22–28, 2024 801 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 41% 10%
YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder[42] December 1–18, 2023 800 (A) ± 4.2% 47% 40% 13%
Cygnal (R)/Aspect Strategies (D)[43][C] November 26–27, 2023 652 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 36% 19%
Emerson College[44] October 1–4, 2023 477 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 38% 20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[45] May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) 49% 39% 12%
Emerson College[46] October 26–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 39% 14%
Emerson College[47] September 18–19, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[48] July 24–26, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 43% 6%
Blueprint Polling (D)[49] April 6–8, 2022 612 (V) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Global Strategy Group (D)[37][A] June 17–24, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 36% 12% 2% 3% 5%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
YouGov/University of Colorado Boulder[42] December 1–18, 2023 800 (A) ± 4.2% 46% 33% 21%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[45] May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) 44% 41% 15%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[38][B] April 13–21, 2024 529 (LV) 42% 48% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[38][B] April 13–21, 2024 529 (LV) 47% 35% 18%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[49] April 6–8, 2022 612 (V) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 16%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Colorado[50]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic 1,728,159 54.13% Decrease 1.27%
Republican 1,377,441 43.14% Increase 1.24%
Independent
35,623 1.12% N/A
Libertarian 21,439 0.67% Decrease 0.94%
Green 17,344 0.54% Increase 0.26%
Unity 5,149 0.16% Increase 0.08%
American Constitution 3,522 0.11% Decrease 0.05%
Approval Voting
  • Blake Huber
  • Andrea Denault
2,196 0.07% Increase 0.06%
Write-in 1,872 0.06% N/A
Total votes 3,192,745 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
County Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 124,056 53.13% 103,024 44.12% 6,411 2.75% 21,032 9.01% 233,491
Alamosa 3,244 43.09% 4,057 53.88% 228 3.03% -813 -10.79% 7,529
Arapahoe 190,725 58.57% 125,311 38.48% 9,595 2.95% 65,414 20.09% 325,631
Archuleta 3,904 41.72% 5,218 55.77% 235 2.51% -1,314 -14.05% 9,357
Baca 275 13.72% 1,686 84.13% 43 2.15% -1,411 -70.41% 2,004
Bent 645 29.47% 1,496 68.34% 48 2.19% -851 -38.87% 2,189
Boulder 150,149 76.49% 40,758 20.76% 5,397 2.75% 109,391 55.73% 196,304
Broomfield 29,426 62.81% 16,071 34.30% 1,351 2.89% 13,355 28.51% 46,848
Chaffee 7,992 55.41% 6,034 41.84% 397 2.75% 1,958 13.57% 14,423
Cheyenne 108 10.24% 930 88.15% 17 1.61% -822 -77.91% 1,055
Clear Creek 3,464 56.77% 2,452 40.18% 186 3.05% 1,012 16.59% 6,102
Conejos 1,627 39.63% 2,358 57.44% 120 2.93% -731 -17.81% 4,105
Costilla 1,155 55.53% 850 40.87% 75 3.60% 305 14.66% 2,080
Crowley 422 24.74% 1,231 72.16% 53 3.10% -809 -47.42% 1,706
Custer 1,188 30.72% 2,583 66.80% 96 2.48% -1,395 -36.08% 3,867
Delta 6,030 30.96% 12,948 66.47% 500 2.57% -6,918 -35.51% 19,478
Denver 278,634 76.65% 74,765 20.57% 10,120 2.78% 203,869 56.08% 363,519
Dolores 325 22.90% 1,076 75.83% 18 1.27% -751 -52.93% 1,419
Douglas 110,408 45.27% 127,451 52.26% 6,033 2.47% -17,043 -6.99% 243,892
Eagle 16,943 60.94% 10,148 36.50% 714 2.56% 6,795 24.44% 27,805
El Paso 166,597 43.73% 203,933 53.53% 10,456 2.74% -37,336 -9.80% 380,986
Elbert 4,768 23.35% 15,209 74.47% 445 2.18% -10,441 -51.12% 20,422
Fremont 7,526 29.55% 17,313 67.97% 631 2.48% -9,787 -38.42% 25,470
Garfield 15,128 49.80% 14,493 47.71% 755 2.49% 635 2.09% 30,376
Gilpin 2,254 54.58% 1,729 41.86% 147 3.56% 525 12.72% 4,130
Grand 4,743 47.99% 4,822 48.79% 319 3.22% -79 -0.80% 9,884
Gunnison 6,887 62.94% 3,689 33.71% 366 3.35% 3,198 29.23% 10,942
Hinsdale 257 42.34% 332 54.70% 18 2.96% -75 -12.36% 607
Huerfano 1,965 44.24% 2,346 52.81% 131 2.95% -381 -8.57% 4,442
Jackson 173 20.74% 634 76.02% 27 3.24% -461 -55.28% 834
Jefferson 210,875 58.30% 140,505 38.84% 10,336 2.86% 70,370 19.46% 361,716
Kiowa 102 11.82% 744 86.21% 17 1.97% -642 -74.39% 863
Kit Carson 556 15.04% 3,083 83.37% 59 1.59% -2,527 -68.33% 3,698
La Plata 20,677 57.93% 14,024 39.29% 991 2.78% 6,653 18.64% 35,692
Lake 2,199 56.20% 1,557 39.79% 157 4.01% 642 16.41% 3,913
Larimer 129,376 57.33% 89,680 39.74% 6,598 2.93% 39,696 17.59% 225,654
Las Animas 3,276 42.04% 4,328 55.54% 189 2.42% -1,052 -13.50% 7,793
Lincoln 432 16.80% 2,090 81.29% 49 1.91% -1,658 -64.49% 2,571
Logan 2,098 20.64% 7,855 77.27% 213 2.09% -5,757 -56.63% 10,166
Mesa 33,573 36.64% 55,839 60.95% 2,208 2.41% -22,266 -24.31% 91,620
Mineral 317 42.10% 417 55.38% 19 2.52% -100 -13.28% 753
Moffat 1,167 17.49% 5,358 80.32% 146 2.19% -4,191 -62.83% 6,671
Montezuma 5,793 38.27% 8,972 59.26% 374 2.47% -3,179 -20.99% 15,139
Montrose 8,354 32.60% 16,704 65.18% 568 2.22% -8,350 -32.58% 25,626
Morgan 3,291 24.44% 9,830 73.00% 344 2.56% -6,539 -48.56% 13,465
Otero 3,164 35.45% 5,520 61.84% 242 2.71% -2,356 -26.39% 8,926
Ouray 2,442 59.59% 1,573 38.38% 83 2.03% 869 21.21% 4,098
Park 4,841 40.18% 6,828 56.67% 380 3.15% -1,987 -16.49% 12,049
Phillips 412 17.49% 1,888 80.17% 55 2.34% -1,476 -62.68% 2,355
Pitkin 7,932 71.02% 2,992 26.79% 245 2.19% 4,940 44.23% 11,169
Prowers 1,227 23.85% 3,833 74.50% 85 1.65% -2,606 -50.65% 5,145
Pueblo 39,328 46.20% 43,688 51.33% 2,104 2.47% -4,360 -5.13% 85,120
Rio Blanco 637 17.25% 2,988 80.93% 67 1.82% -2,351 -63.68% 3,692
Rio Grande 2,306 37.23% 3,743 60.43% 145 2.34% -1,437 -23.20% 6,194
Routt 10,208 62.49% 5,676 34.75% 451 2.76% 4,532 27.74% 16,335
Saguache 1,704 50.10% 1,577 46.37% 120 3.53% 127 3.73% 3,401
San Juan 376 63.84% 188 31.92% 25 4.24% 188 31.92% 589
San Miguel 3,529 73.46% 1,154 24.02% 121 2.52% 2,375 49.44% 4,804
Sedgwick 283 20.84% 1,048 77.17% 27 1.99% -765 -56.33% 1,358
Summit 11,762 67.04% 5,244 29.89% 539 3.07% 6,518 37.15% 17,545
Teller 5,065 31.00% 10,856 66.45% 417 2.55% -5,791 -35.45% 16,338
Washington 329 11.72% 2,436 86.81% 41 1.47% -2,107 -75.09% 2,806
Weld 68,752 38.21% 106,469 59.18% 4,700 2.61% -37,717 -20.97% 179,921
Yuma 758 16.26% 3,807 81.64% 98 2.10% -3,049 -65.38% 4,663
Total 1,728,159 54.13% 1,377,441 43.14% 87,145 2.73% 350,718 10.99% 3,192,745

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris and Trump each won 4 of 8 congressional districts.[51]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 77% 21% Diana DeGette
2nd 68% 29% Joe Neguse
3rd 44% 54% Lauren Boebert (118th Congress)
Jeff Hurd (119th Congress)
4th 40% 58% Greg Lopez (118th Congress)
Lauren Boebert (119th Congress)
5th 44% 53% Doug Lamborn (118th Congress)
Jeff Crank (119th Congress)
6th 58% 39% Jason Crow
7th 56% 41% Brittany Pettersen
5th 48% 50% Yadira Caraveo (118th Congress)
Gabe Evans (119th Congress)

Analysis

[edit]

A fast-growing Mountain West state that was formerly Republican leaning, no Republican has won Colorado by double digits at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide re-election victory. Colorado was consistently competitive at the presidential level from the late 1980s going through the 2010s, including Hillary Clinton narrowly winning the state by 4.9% in 2016. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by 13.5%, becoming the first presidential candidate to win Colorado by a double-digit margin since Reagan. The last Republican to win the Centennial State's electoral votes was George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election victory, which he won by a margin of 4.7%. Since then, the state has shifted to the left and broke substantially for Joe Biden in 2020. Today, Colorado is a blue state,[52] with Democrats winning the state in every presidential election starting in 2008, occupying every statewide office since 2023, and holding comfortable majorities in its state legislature.

Trump flipped Pueblo County, which he had won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Nonetheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Chaffee or Garfield Counties since William Howard Taft in 1908. This is the first time since 2000 that Colorado voted for the popular vote loser, and the first time since 1908 that it voted for a Democrat that lost the popular vote.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Colorado Polling Institute

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Frank, John (November 15, 2024). "Why Colorado favored Democrats in the 2024 election". Axios Denver. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  3. ^ "Colorado Presidential Primary". Associated Press. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 Primary Presidential Election - Unofficial Results". Colorado Secretary of State Election Results. March 13, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 Presidential Delegate Count - Republican". AP News. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  6. ^ See Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
  7. ^ Durkee, Alison. "Trump Faces First Hearing Over Whether He Can Run For President Today—What To Watch For In 14th Amendment Case". Forbes. Retrieved October 31, 2023.
  8. ^ Cohen, Marshall (November 18, 2023). "Colorado judge keeps Trump on 2024 primary ballot as latest 14th Amendment case falters | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  9. ^ "Colorado judge rules Trump 'engaged in an insurrection' — but can still run for president". Politico. November 17, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  10. ^ Astor, Maggie (December 19, 2023). "Trump Is Disqualified From the 2024 Ballot, Colorado Supreme Court Rules". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  11. ^ Cohen, Marshall (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court removes Trump from 2024 ballot based on 14th Amendment's 'insurrectionist ban'". CNN. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  12. ^ Grumbach, Gary; Gregorian, Dareh (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state's 2024 ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution". NBC News. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  13. ^ Liptak, Adam (January 18, 2024). "Trump Asks Supreme Court to Rule He Is Eligible to Hold Office". The New York Times.
  14. ^ "Despite US Supreme Court appeal, Trump certified as candidate on Colorado GOP ballot". ABC News. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
  15. ^ "Donald Trump: US Supreme Court rules that states cannot kick him off the presidential ballot". Sky News. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  16. ^ "Rules Concerning Qualified Political Organizations" (PDF). Secretary of State of Colorado. September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  17. ^ "Petition Nomination". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 General Election Official Candidate List". Secretary of State of Colorado. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  19. ^ "Write-In". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
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  29. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  30. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
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  32. ^ "Colorado Political Climate Survey 2024 Report". University of Colorado Boulder American Politics Research Lab. November 4, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
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  37. ^ a b c "The Rocky Mountaineer June 2024, Issue 15" (PDF). Global Strategy Group. July 8, 2024.
  38. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  39. ^ "COLORADO POLLING INSTITUTE SURVEY Interview Schedule – April 3 Release" (PDF). Squarespace. April 3, 2024.
  40. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States". FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
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  45. ^ a b "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X. May 12, 2023.
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  51. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
  52. ^ Barabak, Mark Z. (March 21, 2023). "Column: From red bastion to blue bulwark: What political shift in Colorado and West means for U.S." Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 3, 2024.