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Deutsch2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana
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| Elections in Louisiana |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Louisiana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
As a Deep Southern state located largely within the Bible Belt, Louisiana has a conservative voting pattern, with the only Democrats to carry the state's electoral votes after FDR being Adlai Stevenson II in his first bid, John F. Kennedy, fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in his first bid, and Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas.
Republicans have won the state in every presidential election since George W. Bush of neighboring Texas did in 2000, doing so by double-digit margins since Bush's 2004 re-election; and since 2008, presidential Democrats have consistently and exclusively carried these parishes: Orleans, home to Louisiana's largest city New Orleans; East Baton Rouge, home to the state capital; Caddo, home to Shreveport; and the rural, predominantly-Black parishes of East Carroll, Madison, Tensas, St. Helena, Iberville, St. James, and St. John the Baptist. Louisiana is expected to again go comfortably towards the Republican candidate in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]The Louisiana Republican primary was scheduled to be held on March 23, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 172,503 | 89.77% | 47 | 47 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 13,123 | 6.83% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,022 | 1.57% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,281 | 0.67% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 595 | 0.31% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 580 | 0.30% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 519 | 0.27% | |||
| Rachel Swift | 335 | 0.17% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 210 | 0.11% | |||
| Total: | 192,168 | 100.00% | 47 | 47 | |
Democratic primary
[edit]The Louisiana Democratic primary will be held on March 23, 2024. Alongside primary with Missouri.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 143,380 | 86.1% | 48 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 7,898 | 4.7% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 4,351 | 2.6% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 3,770 | 2.3% | |||
| Bob Ely | 2,652 | 1.6% | |||
| Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) | 2,245 | 1.4% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 1,200 | 0.7% | |||
| Cenk Uygur (withdrawn) | 1,114 | 0.7% | |||
| Total: | 166,610 | 100.0% | 48 | 6 | 52 |
General election
[edit]Electoral slates
[edit]The voters of Louisiana cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Louisiana is allocated eight electors because it has six congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot must submit a list of eight electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all eight electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. There are no laws on the books in Louisiana that prohibit or punish faithless electors.[6]
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state as of August 1, 2024:[7]
| Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat Libertarian Party | Claudia de la Cruz Karina Garcia Party for Socialism and Liberation | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Nicole Shanahan We the People Party |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Dodd Jonathan Brazzell Carol Elizabeth Vest Boyd Wayne Smith Chantal Saucier Tyler James Lee Bargenquast Keith Thompson Colin Nicol | Annalise Vidrine J. Brian Roberts Cecilia Hammond Devorah Levy-Pearlman Clayton Wilkerson Ian W. Hazleton Debra Williams David Jewel Isaacs | Connie Sampognaro Joseph Wayne Price, Jr. Daniel David Bristol Erica Geldersma Caleb Clotiaux Shirlee Ann Owen Taylor Cabler "Bobby" Smith |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faucheux Strategies[17][A] | April 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[18] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 506 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faucheux Strategies[17][A] | April 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 33% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[18] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 506 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 46% | 33% | 21% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Louisiana
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
- ^ "Louisiana Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
- ^ "Louisiana Republican Presidential Nominating Process". voterportal.sos.la.gov. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
- ^ "Louisiana Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved May 3, 2024.
- ^ "Faithless Elector State Laws". FairVote. August 1, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
- ^ "Candidate Inquiry". LA SOS Voter Portal. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "Faucheux Strategies" (PDF).
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
