2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 313,044 193,661
Percentage 60.59% 37.48%
Harris
  50–60%
  60–70%
  80–90%

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Hawaii
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Hawaii voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Hawaii is a Pacific island state with its own unique culture separated from the mainland and is majority-Asian American. Although Hawaii has been somewhat drifting away from the Democratic Party since 2008, Hawaii has only voted Republican in two presidential elections since gaining statehood, in 1972 and 1984.

Although Harris won the state comfortably, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, received more than 35% of the vote for the first time since 2004. It was also the first time since that election in which the Democratic candidate failed to achieve 60% of the vote in all of Hawaii's counties. Trump's gain in Hawaii was partially helped by Filipino Americans in the state, which mostly broke for him by 53%.[citation needed]

Background

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Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term and became the party's presumptive nominee, but he withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[5] Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February.[6] Additionally, former Democratic U.S. Representative from Hawaii and current Republican Tulsi Gabbard endorsed former U.S. President Donald Trump. [7]

Primary elections

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Democratic caucuses

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Main article: 2024 Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses

The Hawaii Democratic caucuses were held on March 6, 2024.

Hawaii Democratic caucus, March 6, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 1,032 66.0% 15 15
Uncommitted 455 29.1% 7 7
Marianne Williamson 50 3.2% 0
Dean Phillips 15 1.0% 0
Jason Palmer 6 0.4% 0
Armando Perez-Serrato 5 0.3% 0
Total: 1,563 100.00% 22 9 31


Republican caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Hawaii Republican presidential caucuses

The Hawaii Republican caucuses was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.

Hawaii Republican caucuses, March 12, 2024[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 4,348 97.08% 19 0 19
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 68 1.52% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 26 0.58% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 25 0.56% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 8 0.18% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 2 0.04% 0 0 0
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) 1 0.02% 0 0 0
David Stuckenberg 1 0.02% 0 0 0
Total: 4,479 100.00% 19 0 19

General election

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The Democratic Party of Hawaii attempted to disqualify the "ballot access petition" for Kennedy's newly created party, the We the People Party, on the November ballot, though the state Democratic Party was unsuccessful.[10]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[12] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[15] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[16] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[17] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[18] Solid D June 11, 2024
RCP[19] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[20] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][A] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 57% 38% 5%
John Zogby Strategies[22][B] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 55% 34% 11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][A] April 16–23, 2024 250 (RV) ± 6.2% 42% 34% 8% 3% 0% 13%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][B] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 42% 48% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][B] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 50% 27% 23%


Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
313,044 60.59 −3.14
Republican
193,661 37.48 +3.21
Green
4,387 0.85 +0.18
Libertarian
2,733 0.53 −0.43
Socialism and Liberation
1,940 0.38 N/A
American Solidarity
936 0.18 N/A
Total votes 516,701 100.00 N/A

By county

[edit]
Swing by county:
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%
  Republican — +12.5-15%
  Republican — +>15%
County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Hawaii 52,163 62.98% 28,748 34.71% 1,912 2.31% 23,415 28.27% 82,823
Honolulu 204,301 59.93% 130,489 38.28% 6,131 1.79% 73,812 21.65% 340,921
Kalawao 15 83.33% 3 16.67% 0 0.00% 12 66.66% 18
Kauai 17,675 58.79% 11,803 39.26% 586 1.95% 5,872 19.53% 30,064
Maui 38,905 61.86% 22,621 35.97% 1,367 2.17% 16,284 25.89% 62,893
Totals 313,044 60.59% 193,661 37.48% 9,996 1.93% 119,383 23.11% 516,701

By congressional district

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Harris won both congressional districts.[24]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 62% 37% Ed Case
2nd 60% 38% Jill Tokuda

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  4. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  5. ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  6. ^ Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  7. ^ Spady, Aubrie (August 26, 2024). "Former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard endorses Trump in the 2024 presidential race". Fox News. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  8. ^ "Hawaii Democratic Caucus Results". The New York Times. March 7, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  9. ^ "Hawaii Presidential Caucuses". The AP. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
  10. ^ Pellish, Aaron (April 20, 2024). "RFK Jr. will appear on Hawaii ballot, third state to include him". CNN. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  17. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  18. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  19. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  20. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  21. ^ a b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  22. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^ "GENERAL ELECTION 2024 - Statewide Summary - November 5, 2024" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 13, 2024. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
  24. ^ "Results" (PDF). elections.hawaii.gov.
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