2024 European Parliament election in Italy

2024 European Parliament election in Italy
← 2019 8–9 June 2024 2029 →
All 76 Italian seats to the European Parliament
Opinion polls
Turnout48.3% (Decrease 6.2 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Giorgia Meloni Elly Schlein Giuseppe Conte
Party Brothers of Italy Democratic Party Five Star Movement
Alliance ECR S&D The Left
Leader since 8 March 2014 12 March 2023 6 August 2021
Last election 6.4%, 6 seats 22.7%, 19 seats 17.1%, 14 seats
Seats won 24 21 8
Seat change 18 2 6
Popular vote 6,732,303 5,646,296 2,336,452
Percentage 28.8% 24.1% 10.0%
Swing 22.4 pp 1.4 pp 7.1 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Antonio Tajani Matteo Salvini Angelo Bonelli & Nicola Fratoianni
Party Forza Italia League Greens and Left
Alliance EPP Patriots Greens/EFA
The Left
Leader since 15 July 2023 15 December 2013 2 July 2022
Last election 8.7%, 7 seats 34.3%, 29 seats 4.1%, 0 seats[a]
Seats won 8 8 6
Seat change 1 21 6
Popular vote 2,244,170 2,100,292 1,588,760
Percentage 9.6% 9.0% 6.8%
Swing 0.9 pp 25.3 pp 2.7 pp
Results of the election

The 2024 European Parliament election in Italy took place on 8 and 9 June 2024, electing members of the 10th Italian delegation to the European Parliament as part of the broader 2024 European Parliament election from 6 to 9 June.[1] It was held concurrently with the 2024 Italian local elections.[2]

Background

[edit]

In the previous European election of 2019, the League of Matteo Salvini arrived first with 34.3% of the vote and 29 seats, followed by the Democratic Party with 22.7% and 19 seats.

In the 2022 Italian general election, the Brothers of Italy of Giorgia Meloni arrived first with 25.98% of the vote for the Chamber of Deputies, inside the centre-right coalition, followed by the Democratic Party with 19.04%, inside the centre-left coalition.

Qatargate

[edit]
Main article: Qatar corruption scandal at the European Parliament

The ongoing Qatargate corruption scandal, which began in December 2022, has destabilized the European Parliament following the arrest of several MEPs including Marc Tarabella, Andrea Cozzolino and Eva Kaili. Among others, the case includes Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[3][4]

Carlo Fidanza

[edit]
See also: Carlo Fidanza § Legal issues and investigations

In January 2023, MEP Carlo Fidanza of Brothers of Italy was involved in a corruption investigation by the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office for having made Brescia city councillor Giovanni Acri resign in order to get Giangiacomo Calovini elected, in exchange for the appointment of Acri's son as Fidanza's assistant in the European Parliament.[5] Giangiacomo Calovini was then elected member of the Chamber of Deputies of Italy at the 2022 Italian general election for Brothers of Italy. In June 2023, Fidanza and Calovini plea bargained with the Milan Public Prosecutor to one year and four months for corruption, avoiding the disqualification from public office that would have been triggered by the Severino Law.[6][7]

Electoral system

[edit]

As the party-list proportional representation was the traditional electoral system of the First Italian Republic from its establishment in 1946 to 1994, it was adopted to elect the Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) since 1979. Two levels were introduced: a national level to divide the seats among parties and a constituency level to distribute them among candidates in open lists. Five constituencies were established, each including 2–6 regions of Italy and each electing a fixed number of MEPs. At national level, seats are divided between party lists using the largest remainder method with Hare quota. Seats are allocated to parties and then to their most voted candidates. In the run-up to the 2009 European Parliament election in Italy, the Italian Parliament introduced an electoral threshold of 4%. An exception was granted for parties representing some linguistic minorities as such lists can be connected with one of the major parties through apparentment, combining their votes, provided that those parties reach the 4% threshold and that candidates from minority parties obtain a sufficient number of votes, no less than 50,000 for the main candidate. Every political party that intends to take part in the election must collect at least 30,000 to 35,000 signatures of eligible voters for each constituency, of which at least 3,000 signatures for each region; however, the following lists are exempted from the collection of signatures: all the lists that have at least one group in the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate of the Republic, all the lists that contested themselves in the last political election with their own symbol and that have elected at least one parliamentarian, all the lists that contain the symbol of a list already exempted from the collection of signatures, and the lists that refer in the symbol to a European political party or a party of another nation within the European Union that has elected at least one MEP at the last European elections. The latter condition was established in 2019 by the Electoral Offices of the constituencies.[8][9]

Constituencies

[edit]
The electoral constituencies of Italy
Constituency Regions Seats Population, 2022[10] (thousands) Area (km2)
Total Per seat Total Per seat
North-West Aosta Valley, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont 20 15,832 792 57,950 2,897
North-East Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol, Veneto 15 11,541 769 62,310 4,154
Central Lazio, Marche, Tuscany, Umbria 15 11,724 781 58,052 3,870
Southern Abruzzo, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Molise 18 13,512 751 73,223 4,068
Islands Sardinia, Sicily 8 6,421 803 49,801 6,225
Total 76 59,030 777 302,068 3,975

Proposed changes

[edit]

In 2023, the Regional Council of Sardinia unanimously approved a proposal to split the Italian Islands constituency into Sicily and Sardinia due to the population disproportion between the two Italian regions. As of May 2023, the proposal is under discussion in the Senate of the Republic.[11][12] In July 2023, it was informally proposed to lower the electoral threshold from 4% to 3%, the same electoral threshold used for the political elections. This proposal was welcomed by Greens and Left Alliance (AVS) and Us Moderates (NM). FdI did not shut it down since they wanted to help FI, whose future seemed uncertain after the death of Berlusconi, while Lega and IV declared themselves against the proposal. The proposal was officially rejected in September when Forza Italia, fearing the centrist competition of Az and IV, refused to lower the electoral threshold.[13][14][15]

Signature exemptions

[edit]

According to the regulations for the 2019 European Parliament election, parties may be exempted from collecting signatures under certain circumstances, including having their own group in the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate of the Republic, having elected at least one MP with their symbol in the last general election, having a logo that contains the logo of another party already exempted from collecting signatures, and having lists that refer to a European party or a party of another nation within the European Union that has elected at least one MEP in the last European elections.[16] In 2014, the Electoral Offices of the constituencies granted exemption to the European Greens – Green Italia list, as the list was affiliated with a European political party represented in the European Parliament with its own parliamentary group.[17] In 2019, the Electoral Offices of the constituencies established a condition that permits certain parties to participate in European elections through any party in Europe that elected at least one MEP in any European country.[18] In February 2024, FdI proposed an amendment to the Elections Decree in the Senate of the Republic. The amendment aimed to clarify the interpretation given by the Electoral Offices of the constituencies in 2019. It was suggested that parties that had elected at least one MEP in Italy at the last elections would be exempt. Additionally, it was proposed that only lists that had elected at least one member of the Italian Parliament (MP) in the proportional representation system (Italian electoral law of 2017) at the 2022 general election would be exempt. This exclusion would apply to parties that had elected an MP in a uninominal constituency with their party logo.[19] After criticism from some parties, such as +Eu, South calls North (ScN), and Popular Alternative (AP), with the first two parties having elected an MP only in a single-member district, the amendment was revised to provide an exemption for all parties that have elected an MP, whether in a proportional representation or a single-member districts.[20][21] On 7 March 2024, the Constitutional Affairs Committee in the Senate of the Republic approved the amendment.[22]

Outgoing delegation

[edit]

Outgoing MEPs

[edit]
Main article: List of members of the European Parliament for Italy, 2019–2024

The table shows the detailed composition of the Italian seats at the European Parliament as of 1 February 2024.

EP Group Seats Party Seats MEPs
Identity and Democracy
22 / 76
 League 22
 
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
15 / 76
 Democratic Party 14
 
Solidary Democracy 1
 
Independents 1
 
European People's Party
12 / 76
 Forza Italia 11
 
South Tyrolean People's Party 1
 
European Conservatives and Reformists
10 / 76
 Brothers of Italy 9
 
League 1
 
Non-attached members
10 / 76
 Five Star Movement 5
 
Brothers of Italy 1
 
Democratic Party 1
 
Greens and Left Alliance 1
 
Christian Democracy Sicily 1
 
Independents 1
 
Renew Europe
4 / 76
 Action 2
 
Italia Viva 1
 
Independents 1
 
Greens–European Free Alliance
3 / 76
 Greens and Left Alliance 1
 
August 24th Movement 1
 
Independents 1
 
Total 76
Source: European Parliament
  1. ^ Results for EV (2.32%, 0 seats) and LS (1.75%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
  2. ^ Raffaele Stancanelli, an outgoing MEP of Brothers of Italy, is a candidate for the League.[23]
  3. ^ Maria Veronica Rossi left the League and joined Brothers of Italy on 30 April 2024.[24]
  4. ^ Andrea Cozzolino was suspended from the Democratic Party on 16 December 2022 following the Qatar corruption scandal at the European Parliament.[25]

Retiring incumbents

[edit]

The table shows the MEPs who are not seeking re-election.

Constituency Departing MEP Party EP Group First elected Terms Date announced
North-West Italy Mercedes Bresso Democratic Party S&D 2004 3 22 May 2023[26]
North-East Italy Achille Variati Democratic Party S&D 2022 1 19 January 2024[27]
North-West Italy Marco Zanni Lega ID 2014 2 28 February 2024[28]
Southern Italy Laura Ferrara Five Star Movement NI 2014 2 15 March 2024[29]
Italian Islands Ignazio Corrao Independent Greens/EFA 2014 2 9 April 2024[30]
North-West Italy Lara Comi Forza Italia EPP 2009 3 17 April 2024[31]
North-East Italy Paolo De Castro Democratic Party S&D 2009 3 20 April 2024[32][33]
North-East Italy Gianantonio Da Re Lega ID 2019 1 23 April 2024[34]
Central Italy Matteo Adinolfi Lega ID 2019 1 23 April 2024[35]
Central Italy Nicola Danti Italia Viva RE 2014 2 1 May 2024[36]
Southern Italy Massimo Casanova Lega ID 2019 1 2 May 2024[37]
North-West Italy Marco Campomenosi Lega ID 2019 1
Central Italy Antonio Maria Rinaldi Lega ID 2019 1
Italian Islands Francesca Donato DCS NI 2019 1
North-West Italy Giuliano Pisapia Independent S&D 2019 1
Southern Italy Franco Roberti Democratic Party S&D 2019 1
Southern Italy Andrea Cozzolino Democratic Party NI 2009 3
North-West Italy Tiziana Beghin Five Star Movement NI 2014 2
North-East Italy Marco Zullo Independent RE 2014 2
North-East Italy Fabio Massimo Castaldo Action RE 2014 2
Italian Islands Dino Giarrusso Independent NI 2019 1
North-East Italy Paola Ghidoni Lega ID 2022 1
Southern Italy Elisabetta De Blasis Brothers of Italy ECR 2022 1

Parties and leaders

[edit]

This is a list of the parties which will participate in the election. Some parties will run only in one or a few constituencies out of five.

Party Main ideology Leader(s) European
party 		EP Group 2019 result Outgoing MEPs
Votes (%) Seats
Lega League
Lega
 Right-wing populism Matteo Salvini ID Party ID 34.3%
29 / 76
23 / 76
PD Democratic Party
Partito Democratico
 Social democracy Elly Schlein PES S&D 22.7%
19 / 76
15 / 76
M5S Five Star Movement
Movimento 5 Stelle
 Populism Giuseppe Conte None NI 17.1%
14 / 76
5 / 76
FI–NM Forza Italia–Us Moderates[45]
Forza Italia–Noi Moderati
 Liberal conservatism Antonio Tajani EPP EPP 8.8%
7 / 76
10 / 76
FdI Brothers of Italy
Fratelli d'Italia
 National conservatism Giorgia Meloni ECR Party ECR 6.4%
6 / 76
10 / 76
SVP South Tyrolean People's Party
Südtiroler Volkspartei
 Regionalism Dieter Steger EPP EPP 0.5%
1 / 76
1 / 76
AVS Greens and Left Alliance
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra
 Green politics
Democratic socialism 		Angelo Bonelli
Nicola Fratoianni 		EGP
PEL 		Greens-EFA
GUE/NGL 		2.3%
1.7%
0 / 76
1 / 76
SUE United States of Europe
Stati Uniti d'Europa
 European federalism Emma Bonino
Matteo Renzi 		ALDE Party
EDP
PES 		Renew
S&D 		3.1%
0 / 76
1 / 76
DSP Sovereign Popular Democracy
Democrazia Sovrana Popolare
 Anti-establishment Marco Rizzo None None 0.9%
0 / 76
0 / 76
PAI Animalist Party–Italexit
Partito Animalista–Italexit 		Animal rights Cristiano Ceriello APEU None 0.6%
0 / 76
0 / 76
AP Popular Alternative
Alternativa Popolare 		Christian democracy Stefano Bandecchi EPP None 0.4%
0 / 76
0 / 76
A Action
Azione
 Liberalism Carlo Calenda ALDE Party Renew Did not contest
2 / 76
PTD Peace Land Dignity
Pace Terra Dignità
 Left-wing populism Michele Santoro PEL GUE/NGL Did not contest
1 / 76
L Freedom
Libertà
 Populism Cateno De Luca None None Did not contest
0 / 76
RV Valdostan Rally
Rassemblement Valdôtain
 Conservatism Stefano Aggravi None None Did not contest
0 / 76

Candidates

[edit]
See also: Party lists in the 2024 European Parliament election in Italy

Top candidates

[edit]

The following table lists the top candidates of each party/list in the five constituencies.

Party North-West North-East Centre South Islands Source
League Silvia Sardone Paolo Borchia Roberto Vannacci Roberto Vannacci Annalisa Tardino [80]
Democratic Party Cecilia Strada Stefano Bonaccini Elly Schlein Lucia Annunziata Elly Schlein [81]
Five Star Movement Maria Angela Danzì Sabrina Pignedoli Carolina Morace Pasquale Tridico Giuseppe Antoci [82][83][84][85]
Forza Italia–Us Moderates Antonio Tajani Antonio Tajani Antonio Tajani Antonio Tajani Caterina Chinnici [86]
Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni Giorgia Meloni Giorgia Meloni Giorgia Meloni Giorgia Meloni [87]
Greens and Left Alliance Ilaria Salis Cristina Guarda Ignazio Marino Mimmo Lucano Leoluca Orlando [88][89][90]
United States of Europe Emma Bonino Graham Watson Gian Domenico Caiazza Enzo Maraio [it] Rita Bernardini [91]
Action Elena Bonetti Carlo Calenda Carlo Calenda Carlo Calenda Carlo Calenda [92][93]
Peace Land Dignity Michele Santoro Raniero La Valle [it] Michele Santoro Michele Santoro Michele Santoro [94][95][better source needed]
Freedom Cateno De Luca Cateno De Luca Cateno De Luca Cateno De Luca Cateno De Luca [96]
Popular Alternative Stefano Bandecchi Stefano Bandecchi Luca Palamara Stefano Bandecchi Stefano Bandecchi [95][better source needed]
Sovereign Popular Democracy — — Marco Rizzo — — [95][better source needed]
Animalist Party–Italexit — — — Cristiano Ceriello — [95][better source needed]
South Tyrolean People's Party — Herbert Dorfmann — — — [97]
Valdostan Rally Stefano Aggravi — — — — [79]

League

[edit]

On 8 January 2024, Salvini announced that he would not run for the next European Parliament. He also praised Roberto Vannacci, an Italian Army general who became notorious in the summer of 2023 for writing a political book containing statements considered homophobic, racist, and sexist by some while on duty.[98][99] An internal disciplinary procedure was opened against him by the Italian Army to investigate possible disciplinary offences.[100] Vannacci said he would consider a candidature for the European elections.[101] On 25 April, Salvini announced that Vannacci accepted to run as a candidate in all constituencies.[102]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Paolo Gentiloni, the outgoing European Commissioner for Economy, turned down the chance to stand as a candidate for the European Parliament.[103]

Brothers of Italy

[edit]

Meloni, the leader of FdI and 68th Prime Minister of Italy, said during a press conference that she was considering running in the next elections.[104] According to Article 122 of the Italian Constitution and to Article 6 of the Access Initial Legal Act approved by the European Parliament, the office of Prime Minister is incompatible with that of MEP, therefore Meloni should immediately resign as MEP.[105][106][107] Berlusconi was the only italian incumbent Prime Minister to run as a candidate for the European elections in 1994, 2004, and in 2009, resigning as MEP after the elections due to incompatibility with the office of Prime Minister.[108][109]

Other parties

[edit]

On 14 January 2024, Emma Bonino declined to stand as a candidate for the election;[110] she changed her mind on 20 April 2024.[111] On 25 January 2024, Federico Pizzarotti, president of +Eu, announced his desire to run as a candidate.[112]

On 22 January 2024, Calenda unveiled on the party website the first candidates for the election: MEP Giosi Ferrandino, Caterina Avanza, Alessio D'Amato, Cristina Lodi, Mario Raffaelli, and Giuseppe Zollino.[113][114]

Campaign

[edit]

League

[edit]

Lega leader Matteo Salvini repeatedly called for the formation of an alternative majority in the European Parliament that included the groups of the European People's Party (EPP), European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and Identity and Democracy Party (ID), like the centre-right coalition that won the 2022 Italian general election. on 7 December 2023, Salvini organized an ID convention in Florence, where he criticized the European Green Deal, accusing the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) of "illegally occupying" the European Commission. For his part, Antonio Tajani, the new leader of Forza Italia (FI) following the death of historic party leader Silvio Berlusconi in June 2023, criticized Salvini's idea, not considering an alliance with Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN), Geert Wilders of the Party for Freedom (PVV), and Alternative for Germany (AfD) possible.[115][116]

Brothers of Italy

[edit]

In an interview with ZDF on 6 August 2023, the EPP president Manfred Weber praised the Meloni government, suggesting a possible alliance with Brothers of Italy for the next election. He drew a red line with three conditions to fulfill: the support for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War, the willingness to build Europe and not destroy it, and the acceptance of the rule of law, denying at the same time an alliance with AfD, RN, or PiS; at the same time, Markus Söder, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) leader, turned down any alliance with FdI.[117][118] Former German Minister of Justice Katarina Barley accused Weber of opening up to the far right in Europe.[119] During the press conference held on 5 January 2024, Meloni said there are "insurmountable distances" with AfD but praised Le Pen.[120]

Centrist parties

[edit]

After the break-up of the Third Pole, an electoral coalition formed in 2022 between Action (Az) and Italia Viva (IV), there were concerns that there was a risk of presenting three lists belonging to the same Renew Europe (Renew) group without any of the three lists being able to pass the threshold, thus not electing any MEPs.[121] Stéphane Séjourné, the president of Renew, publicly appealed in May 2023 to both parties to stand together at the next European elections so as to elect "as many MEPs from the Renew Europe group as possible".[122][123][124] Disagreements between Az leader Carlo Calenda and IV leader Matteo Renzi hindered the birth of a common list; Renzi announced the break-up of the common groups at the Italian Parliament and the birth of a list called The Centre, while Calenda expressed his opposition to run again with Renzi. Calenda had also broken the federation with More Europe (+Eu) in August 2022, preferring to ally himself with IV to create the Third Pole, and he had also stood as a candidate in the same constituency as +Eu founder Emma Bonino, ending up favouring the centre-right coalition candidate who then won the uninominal constituency.[125][126][127]

On 30 September 2023, Riccardo Magi, secretary of +Eu, announced that his party would run as the United States of Europe.[128] On 13 December 2023, the National Direction of +Eu approved talks with the other Italian liberal parties for a list supporting the United States of Europe.[129] On 15 December 2023, Bonino published on La Stampa a manifesto, calling for the United States of Europe.[130] The manifesto was signed by individual people like Base Italia leader Marco Bentivogli,[131] Giusi Nicolini,[132] Sandro Gozi,[133] Nathalie Tocci, and Renato Soru,[134] and parties like IV.[135]

On 31 January 2024, Bonino published an article in Il Sole 24 Ore announcing a convention for the United States of Europe list open to all parties for 24 February 2024 in Rome.[136] The goal is to launch a list that does not contain individual party symbols on its logo and that party leaders do not run for the European Parliament election.[137] Despite supporting the manifesto, Renzi announced that he would run in all constituencies.[138] Following the convention on 24 February 2024, there were differences of opinion between Az and IV. Magi requested a brief period of reflection to come to an agreement on a single list.[139][140] On 7 March 2024, More Europe issued a statement advocating for a unified list that includes all three liberal parties, otherwise each party would need to act independently.[141]

Other lists

[edit]

In November 2023, former Rome mayor Gianni Alemanno launched a right-wing party called Independence, saying he was thinking about running for the European Parliament election.[142] In February 2024, television host Michele Santoro presented a left-wing list named Peace, Land, Dignity.[143]

Opinion polling

[edit]

Party vote

[edit]
See also: Opinion polling for the next Italian general election and Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2024 European Parliament election

  Exit poll

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Lega
ID 		PD
S&D 		M5S
NI 		FI
EPP 		NM
EPP 		FdI
ECR 		AVS
Left–G/EFA 		PTD[a]
Left 		SUE A
Renew 		DSP
NI 		Italexit
NI 		Libertà
NI 		Others Lead
+E
Renew 		IV
Renew
8–9 Jun 2024 Consorzio Opinio – 8–10 21–25 10–14 8.5–10.5 26–30 5–7 1–3 3.5–5.5 2.5–4.5 – – 0–2 0–3 9–1
20–24 May 2024 SWG 2,000 8.6 22.0 14.7 8.6 27.3 4.6 2.5 4.2 4.0 2.0 5.3
25–25 May 2024 Noto 1,000 9.0 20.5 15.0 9.0 28.0 4.0 2.2 4.0 4.0 3.0 7.5
22–23 May 2024 Demopolis 2,000 8.8 22.0 14.5 8.7 27.0 4.3 2.2 4.2 3.7 2.8 5.0
21–22 May 2024 Eumetra 800 8.7 21.1 16.2 8.9 27.1 4.2 2.2 4.5 3.8 2.0 6.0
22–23 May 2024 Termometro 3,900 9.0 19.6 15.7 8.5 26.8 4.0 2.5 4.5 3.9 1.8 1.0 7.2
19–23 May 2024 Quorum 1,604 9.0 20.3 15.9 8.5 27.2 4.9 1.9 4.1 3.9 0.9 0.5 6.9
19–23 May 2024 EMG 2,000 9.3 20.9 15.7 7.9 26.9 4.2 4.5 3.7 6.0
20–21 May 2024 Ipsos 1,000 8.6 22.5 15.4 9.2 26.5 4.6 1.9 4.1 3.6 2.0 0.7 4.0
19–21 May 2024 Cluster 17 1,051 8.7 20.8 15.5 8.2 26.9 4.3 2.2 4.6 3.7 1.0 2.2 1.9 7.1
20–21 May 2024 Bidimedia 1,190 9.1 21.2 15.2 8.3 27.1 4.4 2.0 4.6 4.0 2.5 1.6 6.0
17–22 Apr 2024 SWG 1,200 8.5 20.0 15.9 8.4 26.8 4.3 2.1 4.7 4.1 1.4 2.2 1.6 6.8
17–19 Apr 2024 Quorum 801 7.2 20.5 16.5 7.6 27.8 4.4 1.9 5.0 3.3 1.6 4.2 7.3
17–18 Apr 2024 Demos 1,005 8.5 20.2 16.4 8.0 28.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 6.6 7.8
16–18 Apr 2024 Termometro Politico 4,100 8.5 19.7 16.1 8.3 27.5 3.2 2.5 5.2 3.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 7.8
16–17 Apr 2024 Eumetra 8.5 19.7 16.4 8.3 27.4 3.8 1.9 5.1 3.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 7.7
10–15 Apr 2024 SWG 1,200 8.6 19.4 16.0 8.4 27.2 4.1 1.8 5.2 4.2 1.4 1.9 1.8 7.8
13 Apr 2024 Tecnè 7.9 19.8 16.2 10.1 27.3 3.7 1.6 5.5 3.6 2.0 2.3 7.5
8–12 Apr 2024 Ixè 1,000 8.0 19.9 16.4 8.4 26.6 4.2 1.1 4.0 3.7 1.3 6.4 6.7
9–11 Apr 2024 Termometro Politico 3,700 8.8 19.5 15.6 8.0 27.8 3.3 2.4 5.1 3.9 1.8 1.8 2.4 8.3
8–9 Apr 2024 Demopolis 2,000 8.0 20.0 15.8 8.7 27.0 3.8 2.2 4.6 3.5 2.1 2.0 7.0
3–8 Apr 2024 SWG 1,200 8.8 19.8 15.6 7.8 26.9 3.9 1.6 5.3 4.0 1.4 1.5 3.4 7.1
8 Apr 2024 Euromedia 800 8.7 19.7 17.6 8.5 26.9 3.7 1.8 4.4 3.8 3.7 1.2 7.2
5 Apr 2024 EMG – 7.8 20.2 16.7 9.0 1.0 27.2 3.3 1.2 6.2 3.2 4.2 7.0
4–5 Apr 2024 Quorum 801 7.5 19.8 16.0 7.8 27.7 3.9 2.2 4.6 3.1 1.6 4.7 7.9
2–4 Apr 2024 EMG 1,000 7.8 20.2 16.7 9.0 27.2 3.3 1.2 6.2 3.2 5.2 7.0
28–30 Mar 2024 BiDiMedia 2,000 8.3 20.2 16.6 7.1 27.1 4.4 1.5 5.1 4.4 1.3 1.1 2.7 6.9
27 Mar 2024 Euromedia 800 8.8 19.3 17.5 8.0 0.7 27.5 3.5 2.0 4.7 4.0 1.7 2.3 8.2[b]
8.7 19.5 17.5 8.3 0.6 27.9 3.0 2.0 4.8 4.1 1.7 1.9 8.5[c]
19–25 Mar 2024 Ipsos 1,000 8.0 20.5 16.1 8.7 0.7 27.5 3.3 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.5 1.2 1.5 2.4 7.0
20 Mar 2024 Ipsos – 8.2 19.0 17.4 8.2 27.0 4.1 2.6 3.4 3.0 7.1 8.0
19 Mar 2024 Noto – 8.0 19.0 17.0 8.0 2.0 28.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 5.5 9.0[b]
7.0 20.0 16.0 8.0 2.0 30.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 5.0 10.0[c]
11 Mar 2024 Euromedia 800 8.7 19.7 17.2 7.7 0.7 28.0 3.9 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.0 8.3[b]
8.6 20.2 16.9 8.2 0.4 28.7 3.4 1.5 3.8 4.0 3.3 8.5[c]
7 Mar 2024 Noto – 8.0 19.5 16.5 7.5 2.0 27.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 5.5 7.5[b]
7.5 20.5 16.5 8.0 1.5 29.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 4.0 8.5[c]
23 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 Ipsos 1,503 8.2 19.0 17.4 8.2 27.0 4.1 2.6 3.4 3.0 7.1 8.0
28 Feb – 1 Mar 2024 Quorum 803 8.1 19.9 15.9 6.6 0.7 27.1 4.6 3.4 3.5 3.7 1.6 4.9 7.2
28 Feb 2024 Euromedia 800 8.6 19.6 17.0 7.9 1.4 27.6 4.0 2.6 3.1 4.3 3.9 8.0[b]
8.7 20.0 17.2 8.5 1.2 28.1 3.9 2.5 3.5 4.0 2.4 8.1[c]
26–28 Feb 2024 Bidimedia 1,000 8.5 20.0 15.5 7.5 0.8 28.1 3.9 1.5 2.4 3.0 4.3 1.2 1.3 2.0 8.1
25–28 Feb 2024 Cluster17 1,022 9.1 19.7 16.0 7.6 0.4 27.3 4.6 0.7 2.1 3.0 4.0 1.6 1.9 2.1 7.6
20–22 Feb 2024 Ipsos 1,000 8.3 18.3 17.0 7.9 1.1 28.2 3.5 1.8 2.2 3.6 3.3 1.0 2.0 1.8 9.9
17–22 Feb 2024 Stack Data Strategy 944 8.7 19.9 15.5 6.6 0.9 27.1 3.7 1.4 4.2 4.9 3.3 1.7 2.1 7.3
21 Feb 2024 Noto – 8.0 19.5 18.0 7.0 2.0 27.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.5 8.0
30 Jan – 1 Feb 2024 Termometro Politico 3,800 9.4 19.6 16.2 6.8 29.1 3.0 1.5 2.4 2.6 3.8 1.7 1.4 2.5 9.5
30–31 Jan 2024 Demopolis – 9.0 20.0 15.8 7.2 28.0 3.6 2.0 2.7 3.8 8.1 8.0
24–31 Jan 2024 Portland 502 7.0 21.0 16.0 10.0 28.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 2.0[d] 7.0
24–27 Jan 2024 BiDiMedia 1,000 9.0 19.3 16.1 6.6 1.0 28.6 3.8 1.3 2.5 3.1 4.2 1.3 1.2 2.0 9.3
25–26 Jan 2024 Quorum 803 9.3 19.2 13.6 6.5 1.6 28.4 4.3 2.6 2.9 3.7 1.5 6.4 9.2
22–24 Jan 2024 Winpoll 1,000 9.1 21.5 14.6 7.8 27.8 3.0 1.5 2.4 2.5 3.2 1.3 5.3[e] 6.3
12–22 Jan 2024 Euromedia 800 8.4 19.5 17.8 7.5 0.3 28.5 3.4 2.5 2.8 4.3 1.4 3.6 9.0[b]
8.2 19.0 18.1 7.2 0.3 29.3 3.3 2.4 3.3 4.6 1.4 2.9 9.3[c]
16 Jan 2024 Noto – 8.0 19.5 17.0 7.0 2.0 28.0 3.5 2.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 8.5[f]
6.5 20.0 17.0 6.5 1.5 32.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 4.5 12.0[c]
15–16 Jan 2024 Tecnè 800 8.4 19.8 15.6 9.2 29.0 2.9 3.9 11.2 9.2[b]
8.3 19.5 15.6 9.3 29.3 2.9 3.9 11.0 9.8[c]
4 Jan 2024 IZI 1,068 9.3 19.5 17.0 7.4 27.1 4.2 3.0 3.0 3.5 6.0 7.6
30 Dec – 4 Jan 2024 Lab2101 1,000 10.2 19.8 16.2 5.8 0.7 29.4 4.0 2.3 2.8 3.9 2.3 2.6 9.6
26 May 2019 2019 European election – 34.3 22.7 17.1 8.8 6.4 4.1[g] 3.1 – – 0.9 – – 4.5 7.6

Seat projections

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date League
ID 		PD
S&D 		M5S
NI 		FI
EPP 		FdI
ECR 		SVP
EPP 		+E
Renew 		IV
Renew 		Action
Renew 		AVS
G–EFA–GUE/NGL 		Italexit
 UP
 Others Lead
election.de[144] 6 June 2024 7 18 13 7 23 0 3 1[h] — 4 — — — 5
Europe Elects[145] 4 June 2024 7 17 14 5 22 1 1 4 4 3 — — — 5
Cluster 17 21 May 2024 7-8 18 13 7 23 0-1 4 0-4 0-4 5
Bidimedia 20 May 2024 7 17 12 6 22 1 4 3 4 5
election.de[146] 9 May 2024 7 18 15 7 24 1 3 1[h] — — — — — 6
Europe Elects[147] 28 Apr 2024 7 17 14 7 25 1 1 3 — 3 — — — 8
Der Föderalist[148] 26 Apr 2024 7 18 14 8 24 1 4 [h] — — — — — 6
election.de[149] 22 Apr 2024 7 18 14 7 24 1 2 3[h] — — — — — 6
Europe Elects[150] 16 Apr 2024 8 17 13 5 25 1 — — 4 3 — — — 8
election.de[151] 8 Apr 2024 7 18 15 6 25 1 — — — 4 — — — 7
election.de[152] 22 Mar 2024 7 18 15 6 25 1 — — — 4 — — — 7
election.de[153] 8 Mar 2024 7 17 15 6 24 1 — — 3 3 — — — 7
Europe Elects[154] 4 Mar 2024 8 17 15 5 25 1 — — — 5 — — — 8
election.de[155] 7 Feb 2024 9 19 15 5 27 1 — — — — — — — 8
ECFR[156] 23 Jan 2024 8 14 13 7 27 1 — 6 — — — — 9
Der Föderalist[157] 11 Jan 2024 8 16 14 6 25 1 — — 6[h] — — — — 9
election.de[158] 9 Jan 2024 8 17 15 6 25 1 — — 4 — — — — 8
Europe Elects[159] 30 Dec 2023 8 17 15 5 26 1 — — 4 — — — — 9
Europe Elects[160] 30 Nov 2023 9 17 14 5 26 1 — — 4 — — — — 9
Der Föderalist[161] 06 Nov 2023 8 17 14 7 25 1 — — 5[h] — — — — 8
Europe Elects[162] 31 Oct 2023 8 17 14 4 25 1 — — 4 3 — — — 8
Europe Elects[163] 30 Sep 2023 9 19 14 4 25 1 — — 4 — — — — 6
Der Föderalist[164] 11 Sep 2023 8 17 14 7 25 1 — — 5[h] — — — — 8
Europe Elects[165] 31 Aug 2023 9 19 15 5 27 1 — — — — — — — 8
Europe Elects[166] 31 Jul 2023 9 19 15 5 27 1 — — — — — — — 8
Der Föderalist[167] 17 Jul 2023 8 16 13 7 24 1 — 8[h] — — — — 8
Europe Elects[168] 28 Jun 2023 8 18 15 6 28 1 — — — — — — — 10
Europe Elects[169] 31 May 2023 8 18 15 4 26 1 — — 4 — — — — 8
Der Föderalist[170] 22 May 2023 8 18 14 7 25 1 — — 4 — — — — 7
Europe Elects[171] 30 Apr 2023 9 17 14 4 24 1 — 7 — — — — 7
Der Föderalist[172] 27 Mar 2023 8 16 14 7 25 1 — 5 — — — — 9
Der Föderalist[173] 1 Feb 2023 8 14 15 7 25 1 — 6 — — — — 10
2019 European election 26 May 2019 29 19 14 7 6 1 — — — — — — — 10
  1. ^ Polls before 12 March 2024 refer to it as People's Union (UP).
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Without leaders
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h With leaders
  4. ^ SVP 0.0%
  5. ^ PSI 0.8%
  6. ^ With party symbols
  7. ^ Combined results for Green Europe (EV) and The Left (LS) lists at the election
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h With +E

Results

[edit]
Results of the election, showing vote strength by comune.
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Brothers of Italy6,733,90628.7624+18
Democratic Party5,646,33224.1121+2
Five Star Movement2,336,2519.988-6
Forza Italia – Us Moderates2,244,6789.598+1
League2,100,6588.978-21
Greens and Left Alliance1,588,1686.786New
United States of Europe883,9143.7700
Action – We Are Europeans785,7103.3600
Peace Land Dignity517,7252.210New
Freedom285,7661.220New
South Tyrolean People's Party120,8790.5210
Popular Alternative91,3950.3900
Sovereign Popular Democracy36,2230.150New
Animalist Party – Italexit29,5250.1300
Valdostan Rally14,4570.060New
Total23,415,587100.00760
Valid votes23,415,58794.65
Invalid votes777,7703.14
Blank votes546,8072.21
Total votes24,740,164100.00
Registered voters/turnout51,214,34848.31
Source: Ministero dell'Interno
Popular vote (party)
FdI
 
 28.76%
PD
 
 24.11%
M5S
 
 9.98%
FI
 
 9.58%
Lega
 
 8.97%
AVS
 
 6.78%
SUE
 
 3.77%
A
 
 3.36%
PTD
 
 2.21%
Libertà
 
 1.22%
Others
 
 1.25%

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