2008 United States presidential election in Michigan

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Michigan
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
Turnout66.2% Increase[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 17 0
Popular vote 2,872,579 2,048,639
Percentage 57.33% 40.89%
Elections in Michigan
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 4, 2008. It was part of the 2008 United States presidential election which happened throughout all 50 states and D.C. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 16.4% margin of victory. Early on, the state was heavily targeted as a swing state. However, Obama started to pull away in the polls during the last few months due to the worsening of the state's economy, causing McCain to stop campaigning there. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Michigan had leaned Democratic in recent decades, as it voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992. In the end, Obama won Michigan by a larger-than-expected margin of victory: 57.33% - 40.89%. With Obama winning the state by 823,275 votes, this is the highest Democratic margin of victory in Michigan since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the highest margin of victory for any presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan's landslide reelection in 1984. As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat won the majority of Michigan's counties in a presidential election as Obama won 46 out of 83. Obama's 2,867,680 votes are the most received by a presidential candidate in the state's history. Additionally, of all the states that Obama won in 2008 that Donald Trump won eight years later, Michigan gave Obama his largest margin.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2] Likely D
Cook Political Report[3] Lean D
The Takeaway[4] Solid D
Electoral-vote.com[5] Solid D
Washington Post[6] Solid D
Politico[7] Solid D
RealClearPolitics[8] Solid D
FiveThirtyEight[6] Solid D
CQ Politics[9] Solid D
The New York Times[10] Solid D
CNN[11] Safe D
NPR[6] Solid D
MSNBC[6] Solid D
Fox News[12] Likely D
Associated Press[13] Likely D
Rasmussen Reports[14] Safe D

Polling

[edit]
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Michigan

Very early on, polling was tight as Obama was having a difficult time getting support from the pessimistic state. Since September 21, Obama swept all the polls taken from the state. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 54% to 40%.[15]

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $4,330,872 in the state. Barack Obama raised $7,299,275.[16]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama and his interest groups spent $12,995,614. McCain and his interest group spent $13,332,086.[17] The Democratic ticket visited the state 10 times to McCain's 9 times.[18]

Analysis

[edit]

Michigan had not supported a Republican for president since 1988, and would not do so again until 2016. However, the state's 17 electoral votes had been continually a prime target for Republicans, and the Democratic margin of victory incrementally decreased from 1996 to 2004. In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain put an early effort into winning Michigan, hoping to convert blue-collar voters disaffected by Obama's unfamiliarity as a liberal African-American from Chicago. Macomb County, a populous blue-collar suburb of Detroit, was a large target.

A major problem for the Obama campaign was the 2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. Obama removed his name from the ballot after state officials moved up the primary in violation of party rules. As a result, Hillary Rodham Clinton won the state with 55%. This led to the McCain campaign focusing heavily on winning Michigan in the general election. In May 2008, McCain was leading in a Rasmussen poll with 45% to 44%.[19] After the September financial crisis, however, McCain's general campaign fell into trouble. Polls showed Michigan, a state especially affected by the economy, turning away from McCain. Voters blamed Republicans for the crisis. In early October, with polls showing him falling further behind Obama, McCain pulled out of the state, essentially ceding it to Obama.[20] This was widely publicized, and more than likely contributed to Obama's landslide victory.

On Election Day, Barack Obama won by a double-digit margin of 16%. The state was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed. In Wayne County, home to Detroit, Obama piled up a 3–1 margin. Democratic strongholds Washtenaw County (home to Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan), Ingham County (home to Lansing and Michigan State) and Genesee County (home to Flint) gave Obama 65-70% of the vote. Macomb County, which McCain had focused so intensely on, voted Democratic by a comfortable margin of 9%. Oakland County, once a bastion of suburban conservatism, went for Obama by 15 points.

Obama also carried Kent County (home to Grand Rapids and former President Gerald Ford) by a very narrow 0.5% margin of victory, or 1,573 votes, the first time that a Democrat had done so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Republican support in the state collapsed; McCain was only able to win two counties with margins of more than 10,000 votes.[21] This result signified continued evidence of Michigan's Democratic tilt, anchored by the heavily Democratic cities of Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Flint.

Barack Obama won 46 Michigan counties compared to 37 for John McCain. The largest county with a very close winning margin was a 49.3% vs. 48.8% plurality for Obama in Kent County.[22] As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last presidential election in which Alger County, Alpena County, Arenac County, Benzie County, Berrien County, Cass County, Clare County, Clinton County, Delta County, Gladwin County, Gratiot County, Iosco County, Iron County, Jackson County, Lenawee County, Mason County, Menominee County, Oceana County, Ogemaw County, Ontonagon County, Presque Isle County, Roscommon County, Schoolcraft County, and St. Clair County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last presidential election in which the Democratic candidate won the Upper Peninsula, or a majority of congressional districts in the state.

At the same time as Obama swept the state, Democrats made more gains in Michigan. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Carl Levin was reelected with 62.65% of the vote over Republican Jack Hoogendyk's 33.84%. Democrats also picked up two U.S. House seats in Michigan in the 7th District and the 9th District, with Mark Schauer and Gary Peters knocking off Tim Walberg and Joe Knollenberg, respectively. This gave Democrats the majority in Michigan's U.S. House delegation. In addition, Democrats picked up nine seats in the Michigan House of Representatives.

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,872,579 57.33% 17
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 2,048,639 40.89% 0
Natural Law Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 33,085 0.66% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 23,716 0.47% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 14,685 0.29% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 8,892 0.18% 0
Write-Ins Write-Ins 8,533 0.17% 0
Totals 5,010,129 100.00% 17
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 66.9%

By county

[edit]
County Barack Obama
Democratic 		John McCain
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alcona 2,896 45.11% 3,404 53.02% 120 1.87% -508 -7.91% 6,420
Alger 2,472 52.04% 2,188 46.06% 90 1.89% 284 5.98% 4,750
Allegan 24,165 43.63% 30,061 54.28% 1,154 2.09% -5,896 -10.65% 55,380
Alpena 7,705 50.95% 7,125 47.11% 294 1.94% 580 3.84% 15,124
Antrim 6,079 43.89% 7,506 54.19% 267 1.93% -1,427 -10.30% 13,852
Arenac 4,155 51.12% 3,807 46.84% 166 2.04% 348 4.28% 8,128
Baraga 1,725 47.22% 1,846 50.53% 82 2.25% -121 -3.31% 3,653
Barry 13,449 43.91% 16,431 53.65% 749 2.44% -2,982 -9.74% 30,629
Bay 32,589 56.59% 23,795 41.32% 1,204 2.09% 8,794 15.27% 57,588
Benzie 5,451 52.88% 4,687 45.47% 171 1.66% 764 7.41% 10,309
Berrien 40,381 51.88% 36,130 46.42% 1,323 1.70% 4,251 5.46% 77,834
Branch 8,413 46.01% 9,534 52.14% 338 1.85% -1,121 -6.13% 18,285
Calhoun 34,561 53.84% 28,553 44.48% 1,082 1.69% 6,008 9.36% 64,196
Cass 12,083 51.25% 11,114 47.14% 379 1.61% 969 4.11% 23,576
Charlevoix 6,817 47.35% 7,306 50.74% 275 1.91% -489 -3.39% 14,398
Cheboygan 6,720 48.34% 6,920 49.78% 261 1.88% -200 -1.44% 13,901
Chippewa 8,184 48.98% 8,267 49.48% 257 1.54% -83 -0.50% 16,708
Clare 7,496 51.32% 6,793 46.51% 316 2.17% 703 4.81% 14,605
Clinton 20,005 49.54% 19,726 48.85% 650 1.61% 279 0.69% 40,381
Crawford 3,441 47.94% 3,561 49.61% 176 2.45% -120 -1.67% 7,178
Delta 9,974 52.32% 8,763 45.97% 327 1.72% 1,211 6.35% 19,064
Dickinson 5,995 45.04% 7,049 52.96% 267 2.00% -1,054 -7.92% 13,311
Eaton 30,742 53.36% 25,900 44.95% 974 1.69% 4,842 8.41% 57,616
Emmet 8,515 46.92% 9,314 51.32% 320 1.76% -799 -4.40% 18,149
Genesee 143,927 65.27% 72,451 32.86% 4,117 1.87% 71,476 32.41% 220,495
Gladwin 6,590 49.77% 6,391 48.27% 260 1.96% 199 1.50% 13,241
Gogebic 4,757 57.44% 3,330 40.21% 194 2.35% 1,427 17.23% 8,281
Grand Traverse 23,258 47.62% 24,716 50.60% 869 1.78% -1,458 -2.98% 48,843
Gratiot 9,105 51.33% 8,322 46.92% 311 1.75% 783 4.41% 17,738
Hillsdale 8,765 42.86% 11,221 54.87% 463 2.27% -2,456 -12.01% 20,449
Houghton 7,476 46.81% 8,101 50.72% 395 2.47% -625 -3.91% 15,972
Huron 8,367 48.83% 8,434 49.22% 334 1.95% -67 -0.39% 17,135
Ingham 93,994 65.72% 46,483 32.50% 2,549 1.78% 47,511 33.22% 143,026
Ionia 12,565 45.93% 14,156 51.74% 638 2.33% -1,591 -5.81% 27,359
Iosco 7,309 51.38% 6,583 46.28% 333 2.34% 726 5.10% 14,225
Iron 3,080 49.98% 2,947 47.83% 135 2.19% 133 2.15% 6,162
Isabella 16,679 58.71% 11,220 39.49% 511 1.80% 5,459 19.22% 28,410
Jackson 37,480 50.19% 35,692 47.79% 1,507 2.02% 1,788 2.40% 74,679
Kalamazoo 77,051 58.79% 51,554 39.34% 2,456 1.87% 25,497 19.45% 131,061
Kalkaska 3,780 44.48% 4,527 53.27% 192 2.25% -747 -8.79% 8,499
Kent 149,909 49.34% 148,336 48.83% 5,554 1.83% 1,573 0.51% 303,799
Keweenaw 610 43.26% 756 53.62% 44 3.12% -146 -10.36% 1,410
Lake 2,919 55.16% 2,269 42.88% 104 1.98% 650 12.28% 5,292
Lapeer 21,457 47.30% 22,831 50.33% 1,074 2.37% -1,374 -3.03% 45,362
Leelanau 7,355 50.85% 6,938 47.97% 171 1.18% 417 2.88% 14,464
Lenawee 24,640 51.48% 22,225 46.43% 1,000 2.09% 2,415 5.05% 47,865
Livingston 42,349 42.39% 55,592 55.64% 1,965 1.97% -13,243 -13.25% 99,906
Luce 1,191 43.47% 1,490 54.38% 59 2.15% -299 -10.91% 2,740
Mackinac 3,027 47.23% 3,268 50.99% 114 1.78% -241 -3.76% 6,409
Macomb 223,784 53.26% 187,663 44.66% 8,729 2.08% 36,121 8.60% 420,176
Manistee 7,235 55.62% 5,510 42.36% 264 2.02% 1,725 13.26% 13,009
Marquette 19,635 59.03% 12,906 38.80% 719 2.17% 6,729 20.23% 33,260
Mason 7,817 51.29% 7,147 46.89% 277 1.82% 670 4.40% 15,241
Mecosta 9,101 48.68% 9,238 49.41% 358 1.91% -137 -0.73% 18,697
Menominee 5,981 54.02% 4,855 43.85% 236 2.13% 1,126 10.17% 11,072
Midland 20,701 47.26% 22,263 50.83% 834 1.91% -1,562 -3.57% 43,798
Missaukee 2,898 38.68% 4,469 59.65% 125 1.67% -1,571 -20.97% 7,492
Monroe 39,180 51.13% 35,858 46.79% 1,593 2.08% 3,322 4.34% 76,631
Montcalm 13,208 48.75% 13,291 49.05% 597 2.20% -83 -0.30% 27,096
Montmorency 2,403 44.83% 2,841 53.00% 116 2.17% -438 -8.17% 5,360
Muskegon 53,821 63.73% 29,145 34.51% 1,490 1.76% 24,676 29.22% 84,456
Newaygo 10,790 46.52% 11,862 51.14% 544 2.34% -1,072 -4.62% 23,196
Oakland 372,566 56.42% 276,956 41.94% 10,873 1.64% 95,610 14.48% 660,395
Oceana 6,405 51.20% 5,860 46.85% 244 1.95% 545 4.35% 12,509
Ogemaw 5,391 49.93% 5,133 47.54% 274 2.53% 258 2.39% 10,798
Ontonagon 1,966 50.60% 1,823 46.92% 96 2.48% 143 3.68% 3,885
Osceola 4,855 44.03% 5,973 54.17% 198 1.80% -1,118 -10.14% 11,026
Oscoda 1,887 43.42% 2,320 53.38% 139 3.18% -433 -9.96% 4,346
Otsego 5,634 44.55% 6,752 53.39% 261 2.06% -1,118 -8.84% 12,647
Ottawa 50,828 37.23% 83,330 61.03% 2,381 1.74% -32,502 -23.80% 136,539
Presque Isle 3,722 49.55% 3,606 48.01% 183 2.44% 116 1.54% 7,511
Roscommon 7,082 50.24% 6,727 47.72% 287 2.04% 355 2.52% 14,096
Saginaw 60,276 57.80% 42,225 40.49% 1,782 1.71% 18,051 17.31% 104,283
St. Clair 40,677 50.28% 38,536 47.63% 1,687 2.09% 2,141 2.65% 80,900
St. Joseph 12,322 47.81% 12,886 50.00% 563 2.19% -564 -2.19% 25,771
Sanilac 9,047 44.86% 10,679 52.95% 443 2.19% -1,632 -8.09% 20,169
Schoolcraft 2,184 50.38% 2,058 47.47% 93 1.95% 126 2.91% 4,335
Shiawassee 19,397 53.27% 16,268 44.67% 750 2.06% 3,129 8.60% 36,415
Tuscola 13,503 48.48% 13,740 49.33% 611 2.19% -237 -0.85% 27,854
Van Buren 18,588 53.47% 15,534 44.68% 644 1.85% 3,054 8.79% 34,766
Washtenaw 130,578 69.62% 53,946 28.76% 3,024 1.62% 76,632 40.86% 187,548
Wayne 660,085 74.02% 219,582 24.62% 12,064 1.36% 440,503 49.40% 891,731
Wexford 7,379 46.88% 8,044 51.10% 318 2.02% -665 -4.22% 15,741
Totals 2,872,579 57.33% 2,048,639 40.89% 89,388 1.78% 823,940 16.44% 5,010,606
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Barack Obama carried 12 of the 15 congressional districts in Michigan, including three districts held by Republicans.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 48.11% 49.93% Bart Stupak
2nd 50.85% 47.50% Peter Hoekstra
3rd 49.43% 48.84% Vern Ehlers
4th 48.19% 50.09% Dave Camp
5th 34.71% 63.67% Dale Kildee
6th 44.18% 54.12% Fred Upton
7th 46.50% 51.73% Tim Walberg (110th Congress)
Mark Schauer (111th Congress)
8th 45.72% 52.58% Mike Rogers
9th 42.83% 55.79% Joe Knollenberg (110th Congress)
Gary Peters (111th Congress)
10th 49.85% 48.23% Candice Miller
11th 44.56% 53.78% Thaddeus McCotter
12th 33.23% 65.05% Sander Levin
13th 14.47% 84.71% Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th 13.45% 85.77% John Conyers Jr.
15th 32.48% 65.80% John Dingell

Electors

[edit]
Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

  1. Brenda Abbey
  2. Dallas Dean
  3. Ida DeHaas
  4. Ron Gettelfinger
  5. James Hoffa
  6. Kenneth Paul Jenkins
  7. Harry Kalogerakos
  8. Jessica Mistak
  9. Arturo Reyes
  10. Griffin Rivers
  11. Gary Shepherd
  12. Roger Short
  13. Arthur Shy
  14. Richard West
  15. Whitney Randall Wolcott
  16. David Woodward
  17. Charlene Yarbrough

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics".
  2. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  7. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  8. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  9. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  10. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  15. ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 19, 2009.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Site". Archived from the original on February 27, 2009. Retrieved May 30, 2009.
  20. ^ "McCain pulling out of Michigan - Yahoo! News". Retrieved December 20, 2008.
  21. ^ "Election Results 2008". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved April 5, 2009.
  22. ^ Dave Leip. "2008 Presidential General Election Data Graphs - Michigan". Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved September 2, 2016.
  23. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
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