2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election

See also: 2021 United States gubernatorial elections

2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election
← 2017 November 2, 2021 2025 →
Turnout40.5%[2] (Increase2.0%)
 
Nominee Phil Murphy Jack Ciattarelli
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Sheila Oliver Diane Allen
Popular vote 1,339,471 1,255,185
Percentage 51.22% 48.00%
Murphy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Ciattarelli:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Phil Murphy
Democratic

Elected Governor

Phil Murphy
Democratic

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Mayoral elections

The 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021, to elect the governor of New Jersey. Incumbent governor Phil Murphy was first elected in 2017 with 56% of the vote[3] and won re-election to a second term. Murphy and his running mate, Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver, defeated the Republican ticket of Jack Ciattarelli and Diane Allen, 51.2% to 48%.

Murphy formally announced his intention to run for a second term on October 1, 2020.[4] Primaries were held on June 8, 2021. Murphy, who won the Democratic nomination unopposed after his two primary challengers were disqualified, faced Ciattarelli, Green nominee Madelyn Hoffman, Libertarian nominee Gregg Mele, and Socialist Workers Party nominee Joanne Kuniansky in the general election. The race was considered by many media outlets to be a "safe" or "likely" Democratic hold, as Murphy had led a majority of pre-election polls by double digits.[5] However, Murphy defeated Ciattarelli by a much smaller margin than expected.[6]

Murphy is the first Democratic governor of New Jersey to win re-election since Brendan Byrne in 1977, as well as the first candidate of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president to win since Thomas Kean in 1985. This is also the first New Jersey gubernatorial election since 2009 where both the Democratic and Republican nominees received more than one million votes each.[6] It also was the first New Jersey gubernatorial election where the Green Party candidate placed third. Murphy also became the first Democrat to win a New Jersey gubernatorial election without carrying Gloucester and Cumberland Counties since Robert B. Meyner in 1953, and the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial election without carrying Atlantic County since Richard J. Hughes in 1961.

Atlantic County voted for the losing candidate for the first time since 1993. Also, this was the first New Jersey gubernatorial election in which Somerset County voted more Democratic than the state as a whole since 1910. Murphy became the first New Jersey Governor since Brendan Byrne to win both of his elections with a majority of the vote each time. It was the first single-digit Democratic win in a governor's election since 1961. Murphy received the most votes for a Democrat or any governor since 1989, and Ciattarelli received the most for a Republican since 2013.[7][8]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Roger Bacon, perennial candidate[9]
  • Lisa McCormick, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[10]

Declined

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Primary campaign finance activity through June 28, 2021
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Phil Murphy $7,966,075 $7,752,229 $213,846
Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission[14]

Lieutenant Governor nomination

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Philip Murphy (incumbent) 382,984 100.0%
Total votes 382,984 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Primary campaign finance activity through June 28, 2021
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jack Ciattarelli $7,125,870 $7,045,692 $69,178
Brian Levine <$5,800 <$5,800 <$5,800
Phil Rizzo $678,619 $655,282 $23,337
Hirsh Singh $616,398 $615,931 $468
Doug Steinhardt (withdrew) $248,345 $221,819 $26,527
Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission[14]

Endorsements

[edit]
Hirsh Singh

Individuals

  • Joseph Rudy Rullo, businessman, actor, and perennial candidate[22]
Phil Rizzo

State Legislators

Individuals

Lieutenant Governor nomination

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Diane Allen, former state senator from the 7th district (1998–2018) and candidate for US Senate in 2002[36]

Potential candidates not selected

[edit]

On May 4, 2021, the New Jersey Globe published a list of nine potential candidates for lieutenant governor after speaking with "more than two dozen Republican leaders, strategists and activists."[38] Diane Allen (who was selected as Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli's running mate) was one of the names on this list. The others were:

Debates

[edit]
2021 New Jersey Republican gubernatorial primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Jack Ciattarelli Brian Levine Phil Rizzo Hirsh Singh
1[39] May 25, 2021 WKXW Eric Scott [40] P N N P

A second debate on NJ PBS featuring Ciattarelli and Singh and moderated by NJ Spotlight News reporters Briana Vannozzi, Colleen O'Dea, and David Cruz was planned for May 26, 2021,[41] but later cancelled on May 24, 2021,[42] after Singh announced that he would decline to participate.[43]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jack
Ciattarelli 		Brian
Levine 		Phil
Rizzo 		Hirsh
Singh 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[44][b] May 24–25, 2021 591 (LV) ± 4.1% 29% 2% 8% 23% 38%
Brad Parscale (R)[45][c] April 16–21, 2021 >1200 (LV) ± 3% 20% 3% 10% 22% —

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ciattarelli
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jack Ciattarelli 167,690 49.46%
Republican Philip Rizzo 87,007 25.66%
Republican Hirsh V. Singh 73,155 21.58%
Republican Brian D. Levine 11,181 3.30%
Total votes 339,033 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Five candidates appeared on the general election ballot, the lowest number of candidates for a New Jersey gubernatorial election since 1953, which also featured five.[46]

Candidates

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
General election campaign finance activity through November 19, 2021
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Phil Murphy $16,747,434 $16,393,069 $354,365
Jack Ciattarelli $16,361,174 $15,828,691 $532,483
Gregg Mele $6,000 <$5,800 N/A
Madelyn Hoffman $1,874 <$5,800 <$5,800
Joanne Kuniansky <$5,800 <$5,800 <$5,800
Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission[56]

Debates

[edit]

Although New Jersey State Law gives until September 1, 2021, for independent gubernatorial candidates to fundraise $490,000 to qualify for the debates, the invitees of the first debate were definitively stated at around July 20, 2021, which was over a month before the deadline.[failed verification][57][58] Despite the third-party candidates being ineligible to debate in any debates that were sponsored by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission, the New Jersey Globe held another debate for third-party lieutenant governor candidates on October 11, 2021.[59]

2021 New Jersey gubernatorial debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian Green Socialist Workers
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn Phil Murphy Jack Ciattarelli Gregg Mele Madelyn Hoffman Joanne Kuniansky
1[60][61] September 28, 2021 NJPAC Sade Baderinwa
Brian Taff 		[62] P P N N N
2[60] October 12, 2021 NJ PBS Briana Vannozzi [63] P P N N N
2021 New Jersey Lieutenant Governor debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian Green Socialist Workers
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn Sheila Oliver Diane Allen Eveline Brownstein Heather Warburton Vivian Sahner
1[60] October 5, 2021 New Jersey Globe David Wildstein
Shenell McCloud
Micah Rasmussen 		[64] P P N N N
2[59] October 11, 2021 Joey Fox [65] N N P P W

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Solid D October 5, 2021
Inside Elections[67] Solid D November 1, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Likely D November 1, 2021

Endorsements

[edit]
Phil Murphy (D)

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

County executives

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Jack Ciattarelli (R)

Executive branch officials

Governors

U.S. Representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Newspapers

Trade associations

Declined to endorse

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Date(s)
administered 		Dates
updated 		Phil
Murphy
Democratic 		Jack
Ciattarelli
Republican 		Gregg
Mele
Libertarian 		Madelyn
Hoffman
Green 		Joanne
Kuniansky
Socialist Workers 		Other/
Undecided
[e] 		Lead
Real Clear Politics[138] Oct 15–31, 2021 Nov 1, 2021 50.5% 42.7% - - - 6.8% 7.8%

Graphical summary

[edit]

Table

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Phil
Murphy (D) 		Jack
Ciattarelli (R) 		Other Undecided
Research Co.[139] October 31 – November 1, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 50% 44% 1% 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[140] October 29–31, 2021 1,085 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 1% 4%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[141] October 23–28, 2021 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 44% 3%[f] –
Rutgers-Eagleton[142] October 21–27, 2021 901 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 42% - 8%
Stockton University[143] October 17–26, 2021 522 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 41% 6%[g] 3%
Monmouth University[144] October 21–25, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 39% 2%[h] 9%
Emerson College[145] October 15–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 44% – 7%
Schoen Cooperman Research (D)[146] October 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 41% – 9%
Stockton University[147] September 17–25, 2021 552 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 41% 6%[i] 3%
Monmouth University[148] September 16–20, 2021 804 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 38% 3%[j] 9%
National Research Inc. (R)[149][k] September 13–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% – 10%
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[150][l] August 24–29, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 41% 3%[m] 14%
Monmouth University[151] August 11–16, 2021 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 52% 36% 3%[n] 9%
National Research Inc. (R)[149][k] June 17–22, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% - 14%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[152] June 9–16, 2021 803 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 33% 5%[o] 14%
Rutgers University[153] May 21–29, 2021 493 (A) ± 5.4% 52% 24% 13%[p] 12%
467 (RV) ± 5.6% 52% 26% 11%[q] 10%
Change Research (D)[154][r] May 15–20, 2021 1,215 (A) ± 3.9% 47% 36% - 17%
National Research Inc. (R)[149][k] April 11–13, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 30% - 23%
Hypothetical polling

Phil Murphy vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Phil
Murphy (D) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Rutgers-Eagleton[155] May 21–29, 2021 461 (RV) – 42% 31% 27%[s]
Monmouth University[156] April 29 – May 4, 2021 661 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% 8%

Results

[edit]

During the election, several technical problems with internet connections were reported across the state after newly installed voting machines were used for the first time, resulting in machine malfunctions that were eventually resolved. This caused a delay in the final results.[157][158][159] With 98% of the vote tallied, Ciattarelli conceded to Murphy at a news conference on November 12, 2021, and announced he would run again in 2025.[160] This was the first time since 1949 that the winning gubernatorial candidate did not win a majority of counties, and the first since 1940 that a Democrat did so.

2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election[161][162][t]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
1,339,471 51.22% –4.81
Republican
1,255,185 48.00% +6.11
Green
  • Madelyn R. Hoffman
  • Heather Warburton
 8,450 0.32% –0.15
Libertarian
  • Gregg Mele
  • Eveline Brownstein
 7,768 0.30% –0.19
Socialist Workers
  • Joanne Kuniansky
  • Vivian Sahner
 4,012 0.15% N/A
Total votes 2,614,886 100.00%
Turnout 2,648,814 40.47% +1.97
Registered electors 6,545,250
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]
By county
County Murphy Ciattarelli Others Total Margin
Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Votes Percent
Atlantic 35,736 44.0% 44,977 55.3% 595 0.7% 81,308 -9,241 -11.30%
Bergen 145,150 52.5% 129,644 46.9% 1,556 0.6% 276,350 15,506 5.60%
Burlington 82,877 53.3% 71,772 46.1% 898 0.6% 155,547 11,105 7.20%
Camden 92,162 61.7% 56,016 37.5% 1,214 0.8% 149,392 36,146 24.20%
Cape May 14,183 36.7% 24,260 62.8% 218 0.6% 38,661 -10,077 -26.10%
Cumberland 13,978 43.6% 17,794 55.6% 257 0.8% 32,029 -3,816 -12.00%
Essex 132,520 74.0% 45,542 25.4% 1,105 0.6% 179,167 86,978 48.60%
Gloucester 44,959 44.6% 54,976 54.6% 813 0.8% 100,748 -10,017 -10.00%
Hudson 88,066 73.6% 30,443 25.4% 1,206 1.0% 119,715 57,623 48.20%
Hunterdon 22,820 40.2% 33,459 58.9% 505 0.9% 56,784 -10,639 -18.70%
Mercer 66,151 65.1% 34,617 34.1% 857 0.8% 101,625 31,534 31.00%
Middlesex 116,352 55.9% 90,297 43.4% 2,109 0.7% 208,758 26,055 12.50%
Monmouth 96,664 40.3% 141,100 58.8% 2,024 0.8% 239,788 -44,436 -18.50%
Morris 81,915 44.1% 102,769 55.3% 1,239 0.7% 185,923 -20,854 -11.20%
Ocean 68,615 31.8% 145,756 67.5% 1,439 0.7% 215,810 -77,141 -35.70%
Passaic 57,812 51.5% 53,551 47.7% 961 0.9% 112,324 4,261 3.80%
Salem 6,893 35.0% 12,620 64.1% 178 0.9% 19,691 -5,727 -29.10%
Somerset 58,585 51.5% 54,264 47.7% 823 0.7% 113,672 4,321 3.80%
Sussex 17,346 31.9% 36,310 66.8% 663 1.2% 54,319 -18,964 -34.90%
Union 83,913 61.6% 51,279 37.6% 1,126 0.8% 136,318 32,634 24.00%
Warren 12,774 34.6% 23,739 64.2% 444 1.2% 36,957 -10,965 -29.60%
Total 1,339,471 51.22% 1,255,185 48.00% 20,230 0.77% 2,614,886 84,286 3.22%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Murphy and Ciattarelli each won six of 12 congressional districts. Four districts won by Ciattarelli were represented by Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

District Murphy Ciattarelli Representative
1st 56.8% 41.5% Donald Norcross
2nd 40.2% 58.9% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 42.5% 56.2% Andy Kim
4th 39.6% 59.6% Chris Smith
5th 45.9% 53.2% Josh Gottheimer
6th 51.3% 47.7% Frank Pallone
7th 46.5% 52.7% Tom Malinowski
8th 73.3% 25.8% Albio Sires
9th 57.9% 41.9% Bill Pascrell
10th 81.4% 15.6% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 46.4% 53.0% Mikie Sherrill
12th 62.3% 36.8% Bonnie Watson Coleman

[165]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  3. ^ Internal poll for the Hirsh Singh campaign
  4. ^ While the NJRTL recommended that voters choose Ciatarelli over Murphy, they refused to endorse him due to his support of abortion
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ "Someone Else" with 3%; "No One" with 1%
  7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  8. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 1%
  9. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  10. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%; "No one" with <1%
  11. ^ a b c Internal poll for the Jack Ciattarelli campaign
  12. ^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  13. ^ Mele (L) with 2%; Hoffman (G) with 1%; Kuniansky (SW) with <1%
  14. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  15. ^ "Someone Else" with 4%; "No One" with 1%
  16. ^ "Neither" with 7%; "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  17. ^ "Neither" with 6%; "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  18. ^ This poll was sponsored by Project Ready
  19. ^ "Consider voting for someone else [besides Murphy]" with 21%; Undecided with 6%
  20. ^ In New Jersey, within 30 days after the certification of the statewide primary election, the candidate for governor selects a running mate to join the ticket as the candidate for lieutenant governor.[163] The governor and lieutenant governor must be members of the same political party. As candidates they campaign on the same ticket, are elected conjointly, and serve the same four-year term concurrently.[163][164]

References

[edit]
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  2. ^ "Total Number of Registered Voters, Ballots Cast, Ballots Rejected, Percentage of Ballots Cast and the Total Number of Election Districts in New Jersey" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Jersey. November 30, 2021. Retrieved November 30, 2021.
  3. ^ "New Jersey Governor race results 2017". CNN. WarnerMedia. November 7, 2017.
  4. ^ a b c d Wildstein, David (October 1, 2020). "Murphy formally launches bid for 2nd term as governor, will run with Oliver". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "New Jersey Governor". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 4, 2021.
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  8. ^ "New Jersey Governor Election Results 2021 | Live Map Updates | Voting by County". Politico. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  9. ^ Wildstein, David (April 13, 2021). "Bacon doesn't qualify as candidate for governor, judge says". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
  10. ^ Wildstein, David (April 13, 2021). "Judge tosses McCormick from ballot, finds petitions to be fraudulent". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
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  14. ^ a b Brindle, Jeff (June 30, 2021). "2021 Gubernatorial Primary Spending Relatively Modest by Historical Standards" (PDF). New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission. Retrieved July 4, 2021.
  15. ^ "Sheila Oliver vows to be a 'very different' lieutenant governor". POLITICO. July 26, 2017. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Murphy officially announced former Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver as his running mate on Wednesday...
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  20. ^ Wildstein, David (November 9, 2020). "Singh launches bid for Governor against Murphy". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media.
  21. ^ Wildstein, David (December 29, 2020). "Rullo says N.J. should ditch driver licenses for undocumented residents". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media. Retrieved January 2, 2021.
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  23. ^ "Doug Steinhardt will run for governor against Phil Murphy". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media. December 10, 2020.
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  30. ^ Wildstein, David (February 1, 2021). "Mehta will challenge Malinowski for 7th district congressional race". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media.
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  34. ^ "Phil Rizzo leaves ministry, says it 'may be permanent'; explains Catholic comments, Housing controversy, Unions and More". TAPinto.
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  40. ^ "2021 New Jersey Republican debate". YouTube. June 7, 2021.
  41. ^ "NJ PBS to Host, Broadcast, and Stream Virtual GOP Gubernatorial Primary Debate on Wednesday, May 26 at 8PM". May 4, 2021.
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  44. ^ Public Policy Polling (D) Archived May 31, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
  45. ^ Brad Parscale (R)
  46. ^ Winger, Richard (June 9, 2021). "Five Candidates to be on November 2021 Ballot for New Jersey Governor". Ballot Access News.
  47. ^ Johnson, Brent (August 2, 2021). "Ex-state Sen. Diane Allen to be Ciattarelli's running mate in challenging Murphy for N.J. gov". NJ.com. Retrieved August 2, 2021.
  48. ^ Mele, Gregg (March 21, 2021). "(Instagram post)". Instagram. Archived from the original on December 26, 2021. Today Greg accepted the NJLP nomination for Governor.
  49. ^ "Mele | Brownstein". Mele for NJ Governor. Archived from the original on June 9, 2021. Retrieved June 9, 2021.
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  52. ^ "Joanne Kuniansky, Socialist Workers Party candidate for New Jersey governor, files over 1500 signatures on May 20th at the Office of Elections in Trenton". Insider NJ. May 27, 2021.
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  99. ^ Garden State Equality [@GSEquality] (July 22, 2021). "The choice is clear. We've made unprecedented progress for LGBTQ+ equality these last four years—leading the nation on many issues—and there is still so much to be done. Governor Murphy will continue to move New Jersey and equality forward—not "roll it back." https://t.co/A23j2yUnmk" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 4, 2021. Retrieved November 9, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  139. ^ Research Co.
  140. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  141. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  142. ^ Rutgers-Eagleton
  143. ^ Stockton University
  144. ^ Monmouth University
  145. ^ Emerson College
  146. ^ Schoen Cooperman Research (D)
  147. ^ Stockton University
  148. ^ Monmouth University
  149. ^ a b c National Research Inc. (R)
  150. ^ Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
  151. ^ Monmouth University
  152. ^ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  153. ^ Rutgers University
  154. ^ Change Research (D)
  155. ^ Rutgers-Eagleton
  156. ^ Monmouth University
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  164. ^ The four-year term of office is defined by the New Jersey State Constitution (1947), Article V, Section I, paragraph 5 (as amended, effective January 17, 2006).
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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