2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan
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All 14 Michigan seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 57.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Michigan |
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the 14 U.S. representatives from the state of Michigan, one from each of the state's 14 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other offices, including a gubernatorial election, other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The filing deadline for candidates filing for the August 7 primary was April 24, 2018.[1] Unless otherwise indicated, the Cook Political Report rated the congressional races as safe for the party of the incumbent.
Two seats shifted from Republican to Democratic control. In the 8th Congressional District, Elissa Slotkin defeated incumbent Mike Bishop and in an open seat for the 11th Congressional District, Haley Stevens defeated Lena Epstein.[2] This left Michigan's U.S. House delegation in the 116th United States Congress with seven Democrats and seven Republicans until July 4, 2019, when Justin Amash of the 3rd Congressional District left the Republican Party to become an independent, shifting the balance of power in Michigan's House delegation to a Democratic plurality for the first time since 2011.
Results summary
[edit]Statewide
[edit]Party | Candi- dates | Votes | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
Democratic Party | 14 | 2,165,586 | 52.33% | 7 | 2 | 50.00% | |
Republican Party | 13 | 1,847,480 | 44.65% | 7 | 2 | 50.00% | |
Working Class Party | 5 | 52,879 | 1.28% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
U.S. Taxpayers' Party | 4 | 27,007 | 0.65% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
Independent | 3 | 18,299 | 0.44% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
Green Party | 3 | 14,805 | 0.36% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
Libertarian Party | 2 | 12,095 | 0.29% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
Total | 44 | 4,138,151 | 100.00% | 14 | 100.00% |
District
[edit]Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan by district:[3]
District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 145,246 | 43.68% | 187,251 | 56.32% | 0 | 0.00% | 332,497 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 2 | 131,254 | 42.97% | 168,970 | 55.32% | 5,239 | 1.72% | 305,463 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 3 | 134,185 | 43.18% | 169,107 | 54.42% | 7,448 | 2.40% | 310,740 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 4 | 106,540 | 37.38% | 178,510 | 62.62% | 0 | 0.00% | 285,050 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 5 | 164,502 | 59.51% | 99,265 | 35.91% | 12,646 | 4.58% | 276,413 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 6 | 134,082 | 45.69% | 147,436 | 50.24% | 11,920 | 4.06% | 293,438 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 7 | 136,330 | 46.20% | 158,730 | 53.80% | 0 | 0.00% | 295,060 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 8 | 172,880 | 50.61% | 159,782 | 46.78% | 8,931 | 2.61% | 341,593 | 100.00% | Democratic gain |
District 9 | 181,734 | 59.67% | 112,123 | 36.81% | 10,706 | 3.52% | 304,563 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 10 | 106,061 | 35.00% | 182,808 | 60.32% | 14,195 | 4.68% | 303,064 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 11 | 181,912 | 51.84% | 158,463 | 45.16% | 10,526 | 3.00% | 350,901 | 100.00% | Democratic gain |
District 12 | 200,588 | 68.08% | 85,115 | 28.89% | 8,925 | 3.03% | 294,628 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 13 | 165,355 | 84.24% | 0 | 0.00% | 30,944 | 15.76% | 196,299 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 14 | 214,334 | 80.88% | 45,899 | 17.32% | 4,761 | 1.80% | 264,994 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
Total | 2,175,003 | 52.35% | 1,853,459 | 44.61% | 126,241 | 3.04% | 4,154,703 | 100.00% |
District 1
[edit]
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Bergman: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Morgan 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district consists of the entire Upper Peninsula of Michigan and the northern part of the Lower Peninsula including Alpena, Marquette, and Traverse City. This district has a PVI of R+9. The district, which makes up about 44% of the land area of the state of Michigan, is the second-largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River by land area. The incumbent was Republican Jack Bergman, who had represented the district since 2017. He was elected to replace retiring representative Dan Benishek with 55% of the vote in 2016. The Cook Political Report rated this race "likely Republican."[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jack Bergman, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jack Bergman (incumbent) | 83,272 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 83,272 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Matt Morgan was the only Democrat to file to run. However, he was removed from the ballot because he used a PO box address on his nomination petitions instead of his residential address. Instead, Morgan ran a write-in campaign, hoping to qualify for the ballot by winning at least five percent of the total votes cast in the district for the Democratic gubernatorial primary.[5] Over 4,800 votes were cast in Marquette County, which would have been enough by itself to qualify Morgan for the ballot.[6] According to official results, Democrats cast 29,293 write-in votes in the primary for Morgan, more than seven times the 3,781-vote threshold. On August 24, the Board of State Canvassers placed him on the November ballot.[7]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Matthew W. Morgan, retired US Marine Corps lieutenant colonel and Iraq War veteran[8]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Dwight Brady, professor[8]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Matthew W. Morgan (write-in) | 29,293 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 29,293 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jack Bergman (R) | Matt Morgan (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D)[13] | October 27–29, 2018 | 574 | – | 54% | 42% | – |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Likely R | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jack Bergman (incumbent) | 187,251 | 56.3 | |
Democratic | Matt Morgan | 145,246 | 43.7 | |
Total votes | 332,497 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 2
[edit]
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Huizenga: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Davidson 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district is located in West Michigan and is anchored by the suburbs of Grand Rapids such as Kentwood and Wyoming, other cities include Holland and Muskegon. This district has a PVI of R+9. The incumbent was Republican Bill Huizenga, who had represented the district since 2011. He was re-elected to a fourth term with 63% of the vote in 2016.
Republican primary
[edit]Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bill Huizenga (incumbent) | 79,620 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 79,620 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Failed to qualify
[edit]- Nick Schiller, political newcomer[8]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Rob Davidson | 52,221 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 52,221 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Huizenga (R) | Rob Davidson (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lake Research Partners (D-Davidson)[22] | October 11–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 42% | 7% |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Likely R | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bill Huizenga (incumbent) | 168,970 | 55.3 | |
Democratic | Rob Davidson | 131,254 | 43.0 | |
Constitution | Ron Graeser | 5,239 | 1.7 | |
Total votes | 305,463 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 3
[edit]
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Amash: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Albro: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district is located in inland West Michigan, centered on the city of Grand Rapids, and extends down to Battle Creek and Marshall. This district has a PVI of R+6. The incumbent was Republican Justin Amash, who had represented the district since 2011. He was re-elected to a fourth term with 59% of the vote in 2016.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Justin Amash, incumbent U.S. Representative[21]
Failed to qualify
[edit]- Joe Farrington[8]
- Matt Hall
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Justin Amash (incumbent) | 69,817 | 99.9 | |
Republican | Joe Farrington (write-in) | 52 | 0.1 | |
Total votes | 69,869 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Cathy Albro, educator
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Fred Wooden, pastor[21]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Cathy Albro | 42,619 | 68.2 | |
Democratic | Fred Wooden | 19,903 | 31.8 | |
Total votes | 62,522 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Safe R | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Justin Amash (incumbent) | 169,107 | 54.4 | |
Democratic | Cathy Albro | 134,185 | 43.2 | |
Constitution | Ted Gerrard | 7,445 | 2.4 | |
Independent | Joe Farrington (write-in) | 3 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 310,740 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 4
[edit]
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Moolenaar: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hillard: 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 4th district is located in Northern and Central Michigan including portions of the Tri-Cities region, specifically Midland, other cites include Mount Pleasant and the northern suburbs of Lansing. This district has a PVI of R+10. The incumbent was Republican John Moolenaar, who had represented the district since 2015. He was re-elected to a second term with 62% of the vote in 2016.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- John Moolenaar, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Moolenaar (incumbent) | 80,290 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 80,290 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jerry Hilliard
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Zigmond Kozicki[4]
Failed to qualify
[edit]- Dion Adams[8]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jerry Hilliard | 32,263 | 66.5 | |
Democratic | Zigmond Kozicki | 16,261 | 33.5 | |
Total votes | 48,524 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John Moolenaar (incumbent) | 178,510 | 62.6 | |
Democratic | Jerry Hilliard | 106,540 | 37.4 | |
Total votes | 285,050 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 5
[edit]
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The 5th district is located along the eastern coast of Michigan, centered on the Tri-Cities region of Mid Michigan, such as Bay City and Saginaw, and stretches down into Flint. This district has a PVI of D+5. The incumbent was Democrat Dan Kildee, who had represented the district since 2013. He was re-elected to a third term with 61% of the vote in 2016. Kildee considered running for governor in 2018, but decided to run for re-election instead.[23]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Dan Kildee, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Dan Kildee (incumbent) | 73,996 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 73,996 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
[edit]Michigan's 5th district was included on the initial list of Democratic held seats being targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[24] There is one Republican candidate, Durand resident Travis Wines who lives outside the district.[8]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Travis Wines
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Travis Wines | 44,405 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 44,405 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Dan Kildee (incumbent) | 164,502 | 59.5 | |
Republican | Travis Wines | 99,265 | 35.9 | |
Working Class | Kathy Goodwin | 12,646 | 4.6 | |
Total votes | 276,413 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
District 6
[edit]
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Upton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Longjohn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 6th district is located in Southwestern corner of Michigan, specifically the Michiana region. The district is anchored by Kalamazoo and the surrounding areas including Benton Harbor and Niles. This district has a PVI of R+4. The incumbent was Republican Fred Upton, who had represented the district since 1993 and previously represented the 4th district from 1987 to 1993. He was re-elected to a sixteenth term with 59% of the vote in 2016. The Cook Political Report rated this race as "likely Republican."[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Fred Upton, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Fred Upton (incumbent) | 64,512 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 64,512 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- David Benac, professor[26]
- Rich Eichholz, businessman and biologist[27]
- George Franklin, former Kellogg Company executive[28][29]
Failed to qualify
- Paul Clements, professor and nominee for this seat in 2014 and 2016[30][8]
- Eponine Garrod, local activist and quality control chemist[26]
Declined
[edit]- Mark Schauer, former U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2014[31][28]
Endorsements
[edit]Statewide officials
- James Blanchard, former Governor[32]
- Jennifer Granholm, former Governor[32]
Individuals
- Mark Bernstein, member of the University of Michigan Board of Regents[32]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Matt Longjohn | 22,412 | 37.0 | |
Democratic | George Franklin | 17,493 | 28.9 | |
Democratic | David Benac | 12,867 | 21.3 | |
Democratic | Rich Eichholz | 7,719 | 12.8 | |
Total votes | 60,491 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Fred Upton (R) | Matt Longjohn (D) | Stephen Young (T) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D)[13] | November 2–4, 2018 | 460 | – | 40% | 42% | 3% | 14% |
Change Research (D)[13] | October 27–29, 2018 | 466 | – | 46% | 43% | – | – |
DCCC (D)[34] | October 9–10, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[35] | September 4–5, 2018 | 750 | – | 45% | 41% | – | – |
Global Strategy Group (D-Longjohn)[36] | August 24–29, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 41% | 3% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Fred Upton (R) | Democratic opponent (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[37] | November 8–9, 2017 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 41% | – | 17% |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Likely R | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Fred Upton (incumbent) | 147,436 | 50.2 | |
Democratic | Matt Longjohn | 134,082 | 45.7 | |
Constitution | Stephen Young | 11,920 | 4.1 | |
Total votes | 293,438 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 7
[edit]
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Walberg: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Driskell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 7th district is located in Southern Michigan including downtown Lansing and the western suburbs of Ann Arbor including Lodi and Milan, other cities include Adrian, Coldwater, and Jackson. This district has a PVI of R+7. The incumbent was Republican Tim Walberg, who had represented the district since 2011 and previously represented the district from 2007 to 2009. He was re-elected to a fourth consecutive and fifth total term with 55% of the vote in 2016. The Cook Political Report rated this race as "likely Republican."[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Tim Walberg, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tim Walberg (incumbent) | 69,248 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 69,248 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Michigan's 7th district was included on the initial list of Republican held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[38]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Gretchen Driskell, former state representative, former Saline Mayor and nominee for this seat in 2016[39]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Steven Friday, social worker[21]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gretchen Driskell | 52,430 | 85.2 | |
Democratic | Steven Friday | 9,083 | 14.8 | |
Total votes | 61,513 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Gretchen Driskell (D) | Tim Walberg (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DCCC (D)[42] | February 19–21, 2018 | 400 | – | 37% | 41% | – |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Tossup | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tim Walberg (incumbent) | 158,730 | 53.8 | |
Democratic | Gretchen Driskell | 136,330 | 46.2 | |
Total votes | 295,060 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 8
[edit]
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Slotkin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bishop: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 8th district was centered on the state capital, Lansing, and stretches into the northern outskirts of Metro Detroit including Rochester Hills. This district has a PVI of R+4. The incumbent was Republican Mike Bishop, who had represented the district since 2015. He was re-elected to a second term with 56% of the vote in 2016. This race was considered competitive, with the Cook Political Report rating it as 'Tossup' in August 2018.[43][4] With $28 million spent, it drew the most campaign spending for a U.S. House seat in Michigan's history.[44] Elissa Slotkin defeated Bishop, flipping the district to the Democratic side.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mike Bishop, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Lokesh Kumar[45]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Bishop (incumbent) | 75,403 | 92.3 | |
Republican | Lokesh Kumar | 6,254 | 7.7 | |
Total votes | 81,657 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Michigan's 8th district had been included on the initial list of Republican held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[38]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Elissa Slotkin, former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs and former United States National Security Council official[46]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Christopher E. Smith, professor of criminal justice[21]
Failed to qualify
[edit]- Darlene Domanik, attorney[21]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | 57,819 | 70.7 | |
Democratic | Christopher E. Smith | 23,996 | 29.3 | |
Total votes | 81,815 | 100.0 |
Libertarian party
[edit]- Brian Ellison
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Brian Ellison | 522 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 522 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Debates
[edit]- Complete video of debate, October 5, 2018
Polling
[edit]Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mike Bishop (R) | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D)[48] | November 2–4, 2018 | 501 | – | 46% | 47% | 3%[49] | 5% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College[50] | October 31 – November 4, 2018 | 447 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 49% | 2% | 6% |
Target Insyght[51] | October 15–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48% | 45% | 3%[52] | 4% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College[53] | September 28 – October 3, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 44% | – | 10% |
GQR Research (D-Slotkin)[54] | September 17–20, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 43% | 47% | – | 10% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Bishop)[55] | September 16–18, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 43% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[56] | April 16–17, 2018 | 668 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Target Insyght[57] | April 3–5, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 45% | 39% | – | 16% |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Tilt D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | 172,880 | 50.6 | |
Republican | Mike Bishop (incumbent) | 159,782 | 46.8 | |
Libertarian | Brian Ellison | 6,302 | 1.8 | |
Constitution | David Lillis | 2,629 | 0.8 | |
Total votes | 341,593 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
District 9
[edit]
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Levin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stearns: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 9th district is located in Metro Detroit including Roseville, Royal Oak, and Warren. This district has a PVI of D+4. The incumbent was Democrat Sander Levin, who had represented the district since 2013 and previously represented the 12th district from 1993 to 2013 and the 17th district from 1983 to 1993. He was re-elected to an eighteenth term with 58% of the vote in 2016. In December 2017, Levin announced his retirement, and that he would not seek re-election in 2018.[58]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Andy Levin, former head of the Michigan Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth, Sander Levin's son[59]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Martin Brook, attorney
- Ellen Lipton, former state representative[21]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Steve Bieda, state senator[60]
Declined
[edit]- Sander Levin, incumbent representative
- Andy Meisner, Oakland County Treasurer[61]
Endorsements
[edit]Federal officials
- Rep. Dan Kildee, MI-5
Current and former state officials
- Fmr. Gov. Jennifer Granholm
Organizations
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Brook | Andy Levin | Ellen Lipton | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EPIC-MRA[63] | July 25–26, 2018 | 730 | ± 3.7% | 4% | 55% | 31% | 10% |
Lake Research Partners (D-Levin)[64] | July 9–12, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 4% | 51% | 12% | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Bieda | Andy Levin | Ellen Lipton | Undecided | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GQR Research[65] | March 17–19, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 17% | — | 42% | 8% | 33% |
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Andy Levin | 49,612 | 52.4 | |
Democratic | Ellen Lipton | 40,174 | 42.5 | |
Democratic | Martin Brook | 4,865 | 5.1 | |
Total votes | 94,651 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
[edit]Michigan's 9th district was included on the initial list of Democratic held seats being targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[24]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Candius Stearns, businesswoman[21]
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Candius Stearns | 47,410 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 47,410 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Andy Levin | 181,734 | 59.7 | |
Republican | Candius Stearns | 112,123 | 36.8 | |
Working Class | Andrea Kirby | 6,797 | 2.2 | |
Green | John McDermott | 3,909 | 1.3 | |
Total votes | 304,563 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
District 10
[edit]
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Mitchell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bizon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 10th district is located in an area of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan known as The Thumb and parts of the Metro Detroit area including Chesterfield, Macomb, and Port Huron. This is the most Republican friendly district with a PVI of R+13. The incumbent was Republican Paul Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2017. He was elected to replace retiring representative Candice Miller with 63% of the vote in 2016.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Paul Mitchell, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Paul Mitchell (incumbent) | 81,867 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 81,867 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Kimberly Bizon
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Frank Accavitti Jr.
- Michael McCarthy
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kimberly Bizon | 21,944 | 41.1 | |
Democratic | Frank Accavitti Jr. | 17,047 | 32.0 | |
Democratic | Michael McCarthy | 14,353 | 26.9 | |
Total votes | 53,344 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Paul Mitchell (incumbent) | 182,808 | 60.8 | |
Democratic | Kimberly Bizon | 106,061 | 35.0 | |
Independent | Jeremy Peruski | 11,344 | 3.7 | |
Green | Harley Mikkelson | 2,851 | 0.9 | |
Total votes | 303,064 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 11
[edit]
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Stevens: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Epstein: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 11th district is located in Metro Detroit including Livonia, Novi, and Troy. This district had a PVI of R+4. The incumbent was Republican Dave Trott, who had represented the district since 2015. He was re-elected to a second term with 53% of the vote in 2016. Trott was not running for re-election in 2018.[66][67] This race is considered to be competitive; the Cook Political Report rated this contest as a "toss up."[4]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Lena Epstein, businesswoman and Michigan co-chair of the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign[68]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Kerry Bentivolio, former U.S. Representative[69][70]
- Klint Kesto, state representative[66]
- Mike Kowall, state senator[71][72]
- Rocky Raczkowski, former state representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002 and nominee for MI-09 in 2010[68]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Kurt Heise, Plymouth Township Supervisor and former state representative[72][73][74][75] (endorsed Kowall)
Failed to qualify
[edit]- Kristine Bonds, daughter of TV news anchor Bill Bonds.[76] (endorsed Kowall)[77]
Declined
[edit]- Ethan Baker, Troy City Councilman and former aide to President Ronald Reagan[72]
- Mike Bouchard, Oakland County Sheriff and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006[66][71]
- Patrick Colbeck, state senator (running for Governor)[73]
- Rory Cooper, former communications director to former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor[78]
- Laura Cox, State Representative[66][71]
- Marty Knollenberg, state senator[72] (running for re-election)
- Mike McCready, State Representative[72]
- Ronna Romney McDaniel, Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee[71][72]
- Jeff Sawka, former vice chair of the Michigan Republican Party[72]
- Dave Trott, incumbent U.S. Representative
Endorsements
[edit]Local officials
- L. Brooks Patterson, Oakland County Executive[79]
- Kurt Heise, Plymouth Township Supervisor[80]
Newspapers
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kerry Bentivolio | Lena Epstein | Klint Kesto | Mike Kowall | Rocky Raczkowski | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Research (R)[82] | July 30, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.7% | 14% | 27% | 11% | 10% | 18% | 20% |
EPIC-MRA[83] | July 23–24, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 7% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 19% | 28% |
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lena Epstein | 26,925 | 30.9 | |
Republican | Rocky Raczkowski | 22,216 | 25.5 | |
Republican | Mike Kowall | 16,011 | 18.4 | |
Republican | Klint Kesto | 12,213 | 14.0 | |
Republican | Kerry Bentivolio | 9,831 | 11.3 | |
Total votes | 87,196 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Michigan's 11th district was included on the initial list of Republican held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[38]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Haley Stevens, former chief of staff for the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry[84]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Tim Greimel, state representative[85]
- Suneel Gupta, businessman and attorney[86]
- Fayrouz Saad, former Detroit director of immigration affairs[87]
- Nancy Skinner, syndicated radio and TV commentator
Failed to qualify
[edit]- Daniel Haberman, businessman and attorney[76]
Declined
[edit]- Dr. Anil Kumar, physician, candidate for this seat in 2014 and nominee in 2016[88]
- Barbara McQuade, former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan[89]
Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Greimel | Suneel Gupta | Fayrouz Saad | Nancy Skinner | Haley Stevens | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EPIC-MRA[83] | July 23–24, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 21% | 14% | 10% | 4% | 17% | — | 34% |
Target-Insyght[91] | July 16–18, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 15% | 7% | — | 21% | 4%[92] | 39% |
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Haley Stevens | 24,309 | 27.0 | |
Democratic | Tim Greimel | 19,673 | 21.8 | |
Democratic | Suneel Gupta | 19,250 | 21.4 | |
Democratic | Fayrouz Saad | 17,499 | 19.4 | |
Democratic | Nancy Skinner | 9,407 | 10.5 | |
Total votes | 90,138 | 100.0 |
Libertarian party
[edit]- Leonard Schwartz, attorney
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Leonard Schwartz | 536 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 536 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Federal officials
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States[93]
- Donald Trump, President of the United States[94]
U.S. Representatives
- Dave Trott, U.S. Representative[80]
Organizations
Newspapers
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lena Epstein (R) | Haley Stevens (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Target Insyght[99] | October 15–17, 2018 | 513 | ± 4.3% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 3% |
ALG Research (D-Stevens)[100] | October 10–14, 2018 | 513 | ± 4.3% | 34% | 44% | 4%[101] | 16% |
Harper Polling (R-Epstein)[102] | October 10–13, 2018 | 465 | ± 5.0% | 35% | 36% | 2%[103] | 27% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College[104] | October 1–6, 2018 | 465 | ± 5.0% | 38% | 45% | – | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Republican candidate | Democratic candidate | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[105] | February 12–13, 2018 | 653 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | – | 13% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[106] | October 5–8, 2017 | 709 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[14] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[15] | Tilt D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[17] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[18] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
538[19] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2018 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Haley Stevens | 181,912 | 51.8 | |
Republican | Lena Epstein | 158,463 | 45.2 | |
Libertarian | Leonard Schwartz | 5,799 | 1.7 | |
Independent | Cooper Nye | 4,727 | 1.3 | |
Total votes | 350,901 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
District 12
[edit]
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County results Dingell: 50-60% 80-90% | |||||||||||||||||
Precinct results Dingell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Jones: 40–50% 50–60% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 12th district is based in Ann Arbor and the surrounding cities including Ypsilanti, and the western suburbs of Detroit including Dearborn and Lincoln Park. This district has a PVI of D+14. The incumbent was Democrat Debbie Dingell, who had represented the district since 2015. She was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2016.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Debbie Dingell, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Debbie Dingell (incumbent) | 103,278 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 103,278 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jeff Jones
Primary results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jeff Jones | 33,839 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 33,839 | 100.0 |
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Debbie Dingell (incumbent) | 200,588 | 68.1 | |
Republican | Jeff Jones | 85,115 | 28.9 | |
Working Class | Gary Walkowicz | 6,712 | 2.3 | |
Independent | Niles Niemuth | 2,213 | 0.7 | |
Total votes | 294,628 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
District 13
[edit]
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Precinct results Tlaib: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 13th district is located entirely within Wayne County and is centered on the city of the Detroit and the immediate surrounding suburbs including Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Westland. This is the most Democratic-friendly district with a PVI of D+32. The seat was vacant for most of 2018, following the resignation of John Conyers in December 2017.[107] A special primary and special general election were held in August and November 2018, on dates coinciding with the already scheduled primary and general elections in a money-saving move by Michigan Governor Rick Snyder.[108]
Conyers represented the district from 2013 to 2017. He previously represented the 14th district from 1993 to 2013, and the 1st district from 1965 to 1993. He was Dean of the United States House of Representatives, and was re-elected to a twenty-seventh term with 77% of the vote in 2016.
Former state representative Rashida Tlaib, a member of Democratic Socialists of America, won the Democratic primary. Tlaib, however, lost the special primary to Brenda Jones, president of the Detroit City Council. Jones served for the final 35 days of the unexpired term before Tlaib was sworn in.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Rashida Tlaib, former state representative[109]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Ian Conyers, state senator[110]
- Shanelle Jackson, former state representative and candidate for MI-13 in 2012[111][112]
- Brenda Jones, president of the Detroit City Council[113]
- Bill Wild, mayor of Westland[114]
- Coleman Young II, state senator and candidate for Mayor of Detroit in 2017[115][116]
Failed to qualify
[edit]- John Conyers III, hedge fund manager[8]
- Sherry Gay-Dagnogo, state representative[117][118]
- Kimberly Hill Knott, government relations, environmental justice[119]
Withdrew
- Michael Gilmore, attorney and activist[8]
Declined
- John Conyers, incumbent U.S. Representative
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. Representatives
- Rep. Brenda Lawrence (MI-14)
State legislators
- State Rep. Sylvia Santana
Local officials
- Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit
- Warren Evans, Wayne County Executive
- Eric Sabree, Wayne County Treasurer
Organizations
- Communications Workers of America
- Michigan AFL-CIO
- United Automobile Workers
Individuals
- Greg Mathis, judge and television personality
U.S. Representatives
- Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-7)
- Rep. Ro Khanna (CA-17)
- Former Rep. Mark Schauer (MI-7)
State legislators<