2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,215,422 1,613,207
Percentage 57.14% 41.61%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in New Jersey
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
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Newark
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Jersey City
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Atlantic City
Mayoral elections

The 2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 15.53% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. No fundraising money was spent by either campaign, as the state has trended towards the Democratic Party in recent years. A highly affluent and predominantly urban state with an ethnically diverse population, New Jersey has become a reliably blue state, and this was evident again when Democrat Barack Obama comfortably won the state's 15 electoral votes with 57.14% of the vote.

New Jersey weighed in for this election as 8.3% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2008 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 Super Tuesday Democratic Party presidential primaries § New_Jersey

The Democratic primary took place February 5, 2008, also known as Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton won this primary.

See also: Results of the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Key: Withdrew
prior to contest
2008 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary[1]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates[2]
Hillary Clinton 613,500 53.76% 59
Barack Obama 501,372 43.93% 48
John Edwards 15,728 1.38% 0
Joe Biden 4,081 0.36% 0
Bill Richardson 3,366 0.29% 0
Dennis Kucinich 3,152 0.28% 0
Totals 1,141,199 100.00% 107

Republican primary

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Main article: 2008 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary took place on February 5, 2008, with 52 national delegates who were allocated on a winner takes all basis.[3]

Official Results[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
John McCain 313,459 55.36% 52
Mitt Romney 160,388 28.33% 0
Mike Huckabee 46,284 8.17% 0
Ron Paul 27,184 4.06% 0
Rudy Giuliani* 15,516 2.74% 0
Fred Thompson* 3,253 0.57% 0
Total 566,201 100% 52

* Candidate dropped out of the race before the primary

Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[5] Likely D
Cook Political Report[6] Solid D
The Takeaway[7] Solid D
Electoral-vote.com[8] Solid D
Washington Post[9] Solid D
Politico[10] Solid D
RealClearPolitics[11] Solid D
FiveThirtyEight[9] Solid D
CQ Politics[12] Solid D
The New York Times[13] Solid D
CNN[14] Safe D
NPR[9] Solid D
MSNBC[9] Solid D
Fox News[15] Likely D
Associated Press[16] Likely D
Rasmussen Reports[17] Safe D

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: New Jersey

Pre-election polling was tight early on. However, since October 12, Obama won each poll with a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52%. McCain didn't reach over 42% in that stretch. The final 3 polls found Obama leading with 55% to 39%.[18]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $4,761,251 in the state. Barack Obama raised $13,624,081.[19]

Advertising and visits

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Neither candidate spent anything here.[20] The Republican ticket visited the state twice. Obama visited the state once.[21]

Analysis

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New Jersey was once one of the most reliably Republican states in the Northeast. From 1948 to 1988, it voted Republican in all but two elections: John F. Kennedy in his narrow victory over Richard Nixon in 1960, and Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in New Jersey has historically been a moderate one. As the national party tilted more to the right, the state's voters became more friendly to Democrats. The state narrowly went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and has voted Democratic in every election since then. In all but one election since 1996, the Democrats have carried it by double digits. While Republicans remain competitive at the state and local level, at the presidential level New Jersey is now reckoned as part of the solid bloc of blue states in the Northeast.

Democrats have several structural advantages in New Jersey during presidential elections. The northeastern portion, including Newark, Jersey City, Elizabeth and Paterson, contains more than half the state's population and is heavily Democratic. The southwestern portion, including Camden, Cherry Hill, and Atlantic City is also heavily Democratic. These regions have a total of over 2,000,000 voters between them, making it extremely difficult for a Republican to carry the state. For instance, in 2004 George W. Bush held John Kerry to only a 7-point margin of victory, but was completely shut out in the northeast and southwest. Additionally, the state is split almost down the middle between the largest and fourth-largest markets in the country, New York City and Philadelphia. As a result, statewide races often feature some of the most expensive advertising budgets in the country.

Unlike in 2004, New Jersey was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed.[22] Obama dominated the urban areas of the state, winning Essex County by over 50%, Hudson County by 47%, Camden and Mercer counties by 35%. Obama also won Somerset County, which had voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004. Most of the southern portion of the state voted Democratic. McCain won most of Northwestern New Jersey, winning in Republican strongholds like Morris County and Sussex County (which McCain won by 21%). McCain also won most of the Jersey Shore counties.

At the same time, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg was reelected over Republican Dick Zimmer by a 14.08% margin of victory. Lautenberg received 56.03% of the total vote while Zimmer took in 41.95%. Democrats also picked up a vacant U.S. House seat in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district that was previously held by a Republican; Democrat John Adler defeated Republican Chris Myers by a 3.30% margin of victory. Adler received 51.65% of the vote while Myers took in 48.35%.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,215,422 57.14% 15
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,613,207 41.61% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 21,298 0.55% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 8,441 0.22% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 7,718 0.20% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 3,956 0.10% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,636 0.09% 0
Socialist Brian Moore Stewart Alexander 669 0.02% 0
Vote Here Jeffrey Boss Andrea Maria Boss 639 0.02% 0
Socialist Workers Róger Calero Alyson Kennedy 523 0.01% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 416 0.01% 0
Totals 3,877,323 100.00% 15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 60%/73%

By county

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Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Obama
-Red municipalities won by McCain
-Purple municipality (only Andover Borough) tied by Obama and McCain
Sample ballot for the general election, showing the presidential candidates running in New Jersey
County Barack Obama
Democratic 		John McCain
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Atlantic 67,830 56.88% 49,902 41.85% 1,517 1.27% 17,928 15.03% 119,249
Bergen 225,367 54.19% 186,118 44.75% 4,424 1.06% 39,249 9.44% 415,909
Burlington 131,219 58.64% 89,626 40.05% 2,930 1.31% 41,593 18.59% 223,775
Camden 159,259 67.37% 73,819 31.23% 3,304 1.40% 85,440 36.14% 236,382
Cape May 22,893 44.90% 27,288 53.52% 802 1.58% -4,395 -8.62% 50,983
Cumberland 34,919 60.00% 22,360 38.42% 915 1.58% 12,559 21.58% 58,194
Essex 240,306 75.91% 74,063 23.40% 2,181 0.69% 166,243 52.51% 316,550
Gloucester 77,267 55.21% 60,315 43.10% 2,364 1.69% 16,952 12.11% 139,946
Hudson 154,140 72.84% 55,360 26.16% 2,116 1.00% 98,780 46.68% 211,616
Hunterdon 29,776 42.53% 39,092 55.83% 1,147 1.64% -9,316 -13.30% 70,015
Mercer 107,926 67.29% 50,223 31.32% 2,229 1.39% 57,703 35.97% 160,378
Middlesex 193,812 60.21% 123,695 38.43% 4,367 1.36% 70,117 21.78% 321,874
Monmouth 148,737 47.46% 160,433 51.19% 4,244 1.35% -11,696 -3.73% 313,414
Morris 112,275 45.36% 132,331 53.46% 2,913 1.18% -20,056 -8.10% 247,519
Ocean 110,189 40.07% 160,677 58.43% 4,111 1.50% -50,488 -18.36% 274,977
Passaic 113,257 60.34% 72,552 38.65% 1,904 1.01% 40,705 21.69% 187,713
Salem 16,044 50.88% 14,816 46.99% 672 2.13% 1,228 3.89% 31,532
Somerset 79,321 52.38% 70,085 46.28% 2,024 1.34% 9,236 6.10% 151,430
Sussex 28,840 38.75% 44,184 59.37% 1,393 1.88% -15,344 -20.62% 74,417
Union 141,417 63.58% 78,768 35.41% 2,241 1.01% 62,649 28.17% 222,426
Warren 20,628 42.01% 27,500 56.00% 980 1.99% -6,872 -13.99% 49,108
Totals 2,215,422 57.14% 1,613,207 41.61% 48,778 1.26% 602,215 15.53% 3,877,407
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Barack Obama carried 10 of New Jersey's 13 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.

District Obama McCain Representative
1st 65% 34% Rob Andrews
2nd 54% 45% Frank LoBiondo
3rd 52% 47% Jim Saxton (110th Congress)
John Adler (111th Congress)
4th 46% 52% Chris Smith
5th 45% 54% Scott Garrett
6th 59% 39% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 51% 48% Mike Ferguson (110th Congress)
Leonard Lance (111th Congress)
8th 63% 36% Bill Pascrell
9th 61% 38% Steve Rothman
10th 87% 13% Donald M. Payne
11th 45% 54% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 58% 41% Rush Holt Jr.
13th 75% 24% Albio Sires

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[24]

  1. Jose Colon
  2. William Fontanez
  3. Gina Genovese
  4. Wilma Grey
  5. Kevin Halpern
  6. Victor Herlinsky
  7. Stacy Lubrecht
  8. Salaheddin Mustafa
  9. Peter Nichols
  10. William W. Northgrave
  11. Ken Saunders
  12. Ginger Gold Schnitzer
  13. Carl Styles
  14. Shavonda Sumter
  15. Stephen Weinstein

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "New Jersey Democratic Delegation 2008". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved March 23, 2018.
  2. ^ "New Jersey Primary Election Results - Election Guide 2008 - Results - The New York Times". politics.nytimes.com. Retrieved March 23, 2018.
  3. ^ "New Jersey Republican Delegation 2008". The Green Papers. Retrieved January 28, 2008.
  4. ^ "Official Presidential Primary Election Results" (PDF). New Jersey Department of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 11, 2008. Retrieved May 24, 2008.
  5. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  7. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  8. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  9. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  10. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  11. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  12. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  13. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  14. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  15. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  16. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  17. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  18. ^ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 23, 2018.
  19. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". fec.gov. Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved March 23, 2018.
  20. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  21. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ^ "2008 Election Night Events Timeline". US Election Atlas.
  23. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  24. ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2018.
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